Perspective >> 2011 Thai General Election by Gregory Thomas

Perspective >> 2011 Thai General Election

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Gregory M. Thomas, Mike Williams, Duangporn Akkaravivat TH-158 +66 (2) 207-2392 g.thomas@fc-asia.com

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Perspective >> 2011 Thai General Election 21 August 2011 Duangporn Akkaravivat

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Table of Contents Introduction

Part One - Legitimacy

Legal

Power Sharing

Moral Leadership

Reform

Legitimacy - Conclusion

Part Two - Governing

Economy

Education

Infrastructure

Productivity

Governing - Conclusions

Endnotes

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Introduction The recent general election in Thailand has caught the imagination of the international press who have heralded Yingluck Shinawatra 1as a “young, female leader *sic, who+ could drastically alter the polarized nation.”2

Source - Aljazeera3 - How long will the honeymoon last?

Thais love drama, known as Lakorn4, and politics in Thailand has played out as drama for a long time through intrigues or military intervention or street protests. The Election Commission’s (ECT)5 endorsement of Yingluck Shinawatra as Thailand’s first female Prime Minister-designate provides an opportunity to change that, but she will face a daunting task starting, and some say ending, with her coming out from under the shadow of her brother exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Source – BBC6 - Can Yingluck come out from her brother’s shadow?

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Imagine building a house, if the foundation is not solid or if the columns cannot support the weight, the entire house could fall down. This is similar to the situation that Thailand’s new government will be facing. So what are the challenges faced by the new government to overcome? 

First, the new government will have to navigate challenges to its legitimacy.



If successful, then the second challenge will be successfully governing a divided country as it prepares for 2015 and Asean Economic Community (EAC).

On Shaky Footing?

The first part will review some of the elements that could contribute to undermining the legitimacy of the new government. While the second part will review the elements that could derail Yingluck’s ability of effectively govern.

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Part One - Legitimacy The political landscape in Thailand today is continuing to mature. For each successive government establishing its credibility as the legitimate ruling party is a primary concern. This is usually accomplished after the party has risen to power rather than through the election itself. In the shortterm, this is normal in a fractious political environment where there rarely is a clear winner. However, there is a long-term risk that democratic institutions will become vulnerable to demagoguery. In recent years, successive governments have succumbed to issues surrounding their legitimacy. Particularly governments affiliated with deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra where the challenges successfully brought down three governments to-date. Challenges to the legitimacy of a Yingluck Shinawatra led government will provide a trial-by-fire and could possibly prove the undoing for a Prime Minister with little direct experience in Thai Politics. Challenges of legitimacy are more than likely to come from five directions. 

Legal



Reconciliation



Power Sharing



Moral Leadership, or the lack thereof



Reform

Source – The International 7- Same same but different?

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Legal The dust has barely settled from the election and the ECT has already begun investigating allegations of electoral impropriety. While this is not new in Thailand, there is a significant risk that allegations from either side will lead to a return of protests (either Red- or Yellow-shirts)8, and ultimately an erosion of confidence in the government’s ability lead. A partial list of identified legal risks includes: 

Allegations, as yet unproven, that Puea Thai Party officials bribed journalists for favorable coverage during the election campaign.



Potential party dissolution cases regarding the involvement of banned politicians and the use of coercive tactics during the campaign.



Legal cases to nullify the election as well as a petition campaign to dissolve parliament.



Legal questions regarding the status of Red-shirt leaders elected to parliament which could weaken the government’s majority.



Questions whether traditional power brokers allow for and accept the decisions of an impartial judiciary.

While there are other risks, this list highlights the tenuous position of the newly elected Puea Thai Government. As with the past 3 governments since the 2007 election questions of the government’s legality could cripple its ability to move towards reconciliation.

Reconciliation The ‘R-word’ has become a catchphrase for fixing Thailand. It is not that simple. While earnest efforts towards reconciliation would help, interests on both sides are entrenched and resilient. As non-Thais we simply cannot comprehend the lengths that Thais will go to avoid conflict. The unrest as witnessed on the streets of Bangkok in recent years shocked the international community, but to date a sense of pragmatism has helped to pull Thailand back from the abyss. “Over the past 20 years, Thailand has been on the brink of chaos a few times. There were a couple of times when we had a toe or two in the realm of anarchy. But we never really went there. Cooler heads prevailed and compromises were made. The government's crackdown on the Ratchaprasong occupation on May 19 last year may have brought an end to our latest flirtation with anarchy. But it wouldn't have ended there if the key people on both sides did not stop and say, ''Wait a second, this is bad for business.''9

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However this view is a bit simplistic as trends can change and with each incident there is an escalated opportunity that ‘this’ time will be different than the last. Finding out the truth might prove to be impossible. According to sources, currently military leadership will not tolerate a loss of power or prestige. But the military is not the only obstacle towards reconciliation as all sides are unwilling to accept a loss of face and there appears a lack of political will to see the process through. Will Thailand see a South African style Truth and Reconciliation Commission10? Probably not. The end result of ‘Reconciliation’ will be uniquely Thai in its approach and delivery.

Source – In Asia11 - Who will accept responsibility?

Power Sharing This is one of the most difficult challenges to quantify, while the true root causes of the 2006 coup will never be known, it would appear that former prime minister’s meddling in military affairs played a role. To successfully govern in Thailand the ruling party must collaborate with vested interests and there is no guarantee that they will share the same agenda as the government. If past performance is any indication this balancing act is difficult and will require commitment to work. With neither side trusting the other it would appear that Thailand is entering a political cycle similar to the mid1970’s. In a cycle such as this, small missteps or misunderstandings could ultimately undermine the government’s mandate. One of Yingluck’s first obstacles to power sharing will be the naming a Minster of Defence who the current military leadership will accept. This will provide a test of Yingluck’s ability to achieve a working partnership with the entrenched interests who really run the country.

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Source – Bangkok Post12 - What’s behind door number 1?

Moral Leadership Moral leadership, by definition, requires leaders to act, follow, and hold others to a higher standard. This standard should be for the common good and not pit the needs of one special interest over another. Organizations, governments included, tend to distort moral worth based on the interests of the most active/vocal stakeholders; according to March13, some of the sources of distortion include: 

Decision-making involving multiple actors with inconsistent preferences.



Strategic exchange of information, rather than neutrally informative, i.e. done with “ulterior” purposes in mind; misrepresentation is assumed.



Absence of time and attention in the decision-making process.



Simply put, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.

This distortion commonly results in in policies that are inefficient or ineffective at best and solutions that create problems in other areas. If the government carries out an agenda that is too one-side or seeks to extract vengeance the push back could undermine the government’s standing. At the same time if Yingluck is too successful in establishing her credentials as moral leader she could be perceived as a threat from the more traditional seats of power. This balancing act might prove difficult to sustain and given the record of previous governments, Yingluck’s relative inexperience in politics, and the need to share power and prestige with various interest groups the outlook is not positive.

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Reform How do you enact reforms when those in power do not see the necessity for such reforms and the general public is complicit in perpetuating the status quo? By all accounts corruption in Thailand is a problem. The Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade listed corruption as one of the most urgent issues to address.14 While successive governments have attempted to curtail corruption Thailand’s relative position, as per Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI), has slid backward in recent years. Given the increased constraints on foreign business operating under the long arm of the UK Bribery Act and the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), an alternative approach to reform would be to legalize all forms of corruption. This would eliminate some of the legal constraints for foreign business operating in Thailand and would help the market to better identify the true cost of doing business in Thailand. Ironically, the 2006 coup which was meant to target the corrupt practices of the Thai Rak Thai Government under Thaksin Shinawatra did little to end corruption.

CPI Ranking 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source – Transparency International15

While TI’s rankings lag behind actual instances of corrupt practice it would appear that a first step would be an end to extra-electoral influences on the transition of power (i.e. military, street protests, or a less-than-impartial judiciary). Commitment to the transition of power through electoral/parliamentary means is only a first step toward eliminating corrupt practices other obstacles remain and will continue to weigh heavy on Thailand’s competitiveness, such as: 

Bloated civil service, police, and military ranks that are more interested in generating revenue for themselves than actually serving the country.



Lack of a full understanding of the need for an independent judiciary.16

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

Legal enforcement that does not recognize the need for equal protection.



Overhaul of promotion practices in all state agencies.



State ownership and intimidation of media outlets.



State owned enterprises that are often inefficient and uncompetitive.



Lack of genuine efforts to reform to the labor market to promote competitiveness and sustainability.



Government abuse of dubious laws that seek to limit or curtail civil liberties.



Overall lack of urgency to address these issues.

The recent debt collection case in Germany provides a case study for how governments perceive the role of the judiciary. Whereas German officials repeatedly stated that they had no control over the actions of the courts and they respected the independence of the judiciary the Thai side was “genuinely astonished that the German government cannot influence its judiciary.”17 Given the government’s need to broker with the traditional seats of power to achieve legitimacy and the general lack of interest to change, the outlook for reform in the short term is not promising. If the government acts too quickly it will increase the risk of counter actions from entrenched stakeholders who feel threatened by moves towards liberalization or modernization and this could eventually unseat the government.

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Legitimacy â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Conclusion So what does this mean? At this point we have focused on the known factors but unknown factors will heavily influence the ability of Yingluck and the Peau Thai Party to overcome challenges to their legitimacy and remain in power for at least the next two years. For example, if party dissolution cases go to the Constitutional Court, will the cases be decided impartially? What are the risks to establishing moral leadership?

Reform

Reconciliation >18 Months Moral Leadership

6~18 Months <6 Months

Power Sharing

Legal 0

Chances of success, short- to long-term

The government will have a relatively low chance for success and it is more than likely that one of more elements will combine to undermine its legitimacy. From the current perspective, it would appear that the biggest risks are legal challenges or the inability to establish an agreeable mechanism for sharing power. This tenuous hold on power will weigh heavy on a Prime Minister with little direct political experience and will cause her to seek refuge among advisers that will not be accepted by many. This will increase the risk that the government will not serve out its full term. Depending on the circumstances, dissolution might redefine the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;normâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; in Thailand. For businesses, the events of the past 5 years have had limited impact on the economy as economic fundamentals remain sound, for now. As one of the most developed markets in ASEAN, Thailand represents significant potential. Given the current political environment it is more than likely that this potential will remain unfulfilled well into the next decade.

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Change of Success >18 Months Yes 28%

No 72% Long-term chance of success

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Part Two - Governing While the recent endorsement of the new government clears the first hurdle to legitimacy the more immediate task is to overcome the challenges to governing a divided country. The new government will need to do a lot of heavy lifting to position Thailand for the AEC in 2015; however, the consequences of getting it wrong are greater than at any point in Thailand’s post-war history. Given the failure of previous governments to achieve meaningful results along with the speed of integration both regionally and globally the outlook is murky at best. The recent political situation has led to a state of inertia and it will take cooperation and adept leadership to position Thailand to achieve its full potential in the near-future.

Now the real heavy lifting

Will Yingluck and her team prove to be the right people at the right time? The answer will depend on the perspective of various constituencies. While the preferred approach varies from group to group, there is, at some level, alignment on what the challenges are: 

Economy



Education



Infrastructure



Productivity

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Economy The first priority for the new government will be the economy and with good reason. The global economic outlook for 2012 is uncertain and the potential slowdowns in China, Europe, and the U.S. pose significant risk for an export-reliant economy such as Thailand’s. Also Thailand risks losing out in the competition for capital and skills as progress towards a more open market-based economy lag behind several of its neighbors. While these changes, or lack thereof, will be less immediate to the government’s electoral base, balancing populist promises with sound fiscal policy may prove difficult. According to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal, “concerns about inflation and other problems that could threaten the vibrancy of Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.”18

Time for restructuring19

The proposed rise in minimum wage will have a minimal effect on the broader economy in the midterm and an almost negligible effect on growth industries. Raising minimum wage without addressing some of the structural issues that have held back Thailand’s competitiveness for years including the outsized portion of casual labor to the total labor force and the need to rationalize the country’s tax regime to promote investment at all levels of industry will have almost no impact as real wage growth will become capped in the long-term. Many voters listed the economy as their number one concern during the election and if the Puea Thai government is unable to address these they might find themselves surrounded by disgruntled constituencies. Can the government balance populist policies with sound fiscal policy? To a large extent this depends on the acceptance of certain economic models over others. In the case of Thailand, a round investment would help to the country out of the ‘middle-income trap’. But given the contentiousness of these policies and the self-serving nature of spending in the past, the government will have to implement reforms along with investments to achieve sustainable results. Required economic reforms include:

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

Price liberalization and reduction in subsidies.



Fiscal and tax reforms, including broadening the tax base.



Financial sector and banking reforms.



Establishing favorable legal and regulatory framework for enterprise growth and development.

The challenge for the new government will be pursuing policies that achieve these goals without alienating interests that are already skeptical of the government’s ability to perform.

Casual Labor to Monthly and Daily Labor 21,000,000

Monthly Wage Casual Labor Daily Wage

9,000,000 8,000,000

Source – Thailand Macro Economic Briefing20

Education Thailand has made significant strides in improving the quality of education, especially in Bangkok, but progress has been uneven and Thai students are generally less proficient in English and IT than their peers around the world. Fundamentally, the education system does not support developing the necessary skills for a knowledge economy such as problem solving and project management. While there is a cultural disposition towards creativity, translating creativity into innovation is a challenge for the vast majority of students. To a large extent this is a byproduct of an education

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system that puts more emphasis on rote learning than research and development, the consequence is a middle-income country with a workforce that for the most part has a low-income skill set. Left unchecked, Thailand’s education system will continue to churn out fresh graduates who are unprepared for the harsh realities of a global integration. The responsibility for preparing Thailand for the enactment of the AEC in 2015 will fall on the shoulders of the new government and with it will come the challenges creating a stable platform for the development leaders who can achieve a move up the Value Chain to compete in an integrated marketplace without legislated barriers to protect monopolies. According to one visiting professor, ‘Thai students are 20 years behind their counterparts in Singapore.’ The system is being hollowed out through competition as illustrated by the rise of international schools in Thailand. According to a presentation by Dr. Virachai Techavijit the “main conclusion that can be drawn from the rapid expansion of the international school ‘industry’ in Thailand is the fact that economic growth in Thailand and the effects of globalization are the major factors that have contributed to this phenomenon.”21 This is actually an oversimplification as it fails to recognize another possible cause; those with means are choosing to take their children outside of the Thai education system altogether. The new schools are just a reaction to that choice and not the cause of it.

Rise of International Schools in Thailand - 1950 to 2010 112 67 38 1

Source – The International Schools Phenomenon in Thailand22

Primary and secondary schools are not the only part of the system falling behind. A review of the university system shows that need for reorganization and reinvestment as universities are unable to recruit the ‘best and brightest’. The 2010 World University Rankings23 does not include one university from Thailand in its Top 200 and the QS World University Rankings®24 only includes Chulalongkorn University (number 180). This is surprising for the 19th largest country 25 by population and the 30th largest economy26 but is telling of the effectiveness of the system as a whole. However the focus has not been on improving the standing of Thailand’s educational system. According to Chulalongkorn University Vice President MR Kalaya Tingsabadh "We categorize CU as world-class in the 'national' university division, not world-class in an 'international' university

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division.”27 While the goal to serve the nation’s development is commendable, shouldn’t Thai universities set an example for the improvement of educational standards?

Universities in Top 200 6 5 4

0 China

Hong Kong

Japan

Korea

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

Source - World University Rankings powered by Thomson Reuters28

According to a recent editorial in the Bangkok Post, “Thailand's education budget, at 30% of the total national budget, is already among the highest in the world. Yet its quality is in a shambles. The school system is oppressive. The children do not think independently.”29 Shockingly, neighboring countries use the Thai system to measure the ineffectiveness of their educational systems as noted by Datin Azimah Rahim, President of Malaysia’s Parent Action Group for Education (PAGE), “Our education system was once on par with Singapore but it has since dropped to the level of Thailand.”30 For Thailand to be competitive in the future, the government must find a way to increase the effectiveness of its human capital investments at all levels as the system continually fails to prepare students for the integration demands of a global knowledge based economy. If change does not come soon the result will be a growing ‘donut-hole’ in Thailand’s human capital that will render the country incapable of competing in an integrated knowledge based economy.

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Bucks but no Buck Rogers31

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Infrastructure After 5 years of infighting the need for infrastructure investment has grown even more. In Bangkok, the road network has continued to improve and the Bangkok region is fortunate to have direct access modern air and sea ports. However, integrated logistics is difficult to achieve on scale. This is exacerbated by the growth in the countries second level cities, a trend that consumer product companies and retailers have had a difficult time adjusting to.

Increase in the number of employed persons in municipal areas with > 15k montly income between 2002 and 2009 3,748 75% of the increase is outside Bangkok and vicinities

2,897

2002

Bangkok

Vicinities

Other Provinces

Source â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailand Macro Economic Briefing

2009

Rail links are poor and the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) has proven to be incapable of modernization. What is required is bold action and leadership, such as joint ventures, privatization, and wholesale reorganization to balance labor/management issues. While there is some hope with recent announcements of a high-speed rail link with China in all likelihood this project will probably delivered behind schedule and over budget. The telecom space is another example slow pace of development. With mobile operators choosing to roll out 3G service on their own rather than waiting for the government and government owned telcos. This is a high risk game as aggressive moves to launch 3G service under current contracts might bring about reviews of the true shareholding structures of the number one (AIS) and number two (DTAC) mobile operators. Internet connectivity in Thailand also lags far behind other countries in the region, this constraint has actually slowed adoption of SaaS and IaaS solutions for mid-size enterprises as the IT infrastructure lack the bandwidth to support these applications. Continuing to ignore the need to improve its infrastructure will cap the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic potential at current levels. In the midst of this, the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s internet usage rates are far behind more advanced countries in the region and there is some evidence suggests that real usage is much lower when deducting internet users who are only online at work.

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Internet Users per 100 People 81 73 61 58 26

1991

1993

1995

Hong Kong SAR, China

1997

1999

2001

Korea, Rep.

2003

Malaysia

2005

2007

Singapore

2009

Thailand

Source - International Telecommunication Union, World Telecommunication/ICT Development Report and database, and World Bank estimates.33

The new government will have to address the following to spur: 

Increased access to markets (mostly agricultural) for the government’s political base.



Investment in so-called ‘mega’ projects to improve Thailand’s competitive advantages.



Adoption of reforms mandated under the AEC.

The government needs to plot a course that will position Thailand for future growth without upsetting the interests that run the country today, something that previous governments have found difficult to accomplish.

Productivity Innovation and productivity tend to suffer in low-cost countries as there is little incentive for either. For the government the challenge is to motivate private industry to take real steps out of the ‘middle-income trap’. Activity in high-tech industries has grown in recent years the country must establish new competitive advantages. Regional integration through the AEC will eventually tear down some of the barriers that have shielded certain industries for so long. The proposed increase in the daily minimum wage will put further pressure on lagging productivity rates to remain competitive in the global market.

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According to a joint project of The National Economic and Social Development Board and the World Bank, “Labor productivity fell sharply during the 1997-98 financial crisis and has remained stagnant ever since. The generally poor productivity performance of the services industry in recent years raises concerns about the potential of this sector to be an engine for gains in the real wages and living standards of Thai workers in the future.”34 According to one economist, there are three areas in which industry can help move the focus from low-cost labor towards world-class competitive advantages:35 

Appropriate education and training



Capital investment



Cutting edge research and development

While a certain amount of automation is required to for industries to compete the fear is that overreliance on automation will put pressure on cash flows and prove to be highly inflexible in the longterm leaving Thai companies in an even weaker position. Instead Thai companies should follow the Japanese model of utilizing automation with a human touch and not the wholesale replacement of workers which could further reduce the willingness to improve. Stagnation in productivity is not limited to the service sector; according to USDA Global Rice Yield data, yield improvements from Thailand’s fertile rice growing regions lags behind other countries in the region. In a country where the phrase for eating is literally ‘eat rice’, continued poor performance could have significant ramifications for the country as a whole.

Rough Rice Yield (t/ha) 7.00

5.00

3.00

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

1.00

World

China

Japan

Thailand

Vietnam

Source – USDA - Rough rice yield, by country and geographical region 36

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When yields in Thailand are compared to Vietnam, a country that went through a prolonged period of armed conflict, the picture is disturbing as it points to structural defects in the agriculture sector.

Rough Rice Yield - Thailand & Vietnam 5.50

3.50

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

1.50

Vietnam

Thailand

Source â&#x20AC;&#x201C; USDA - Rough rice yield, by country and geographical region 37

So where does this leave Thailand? Productivity must improve to support strategies to move up the value chain, but without a significant restructuring of the labor force to dramatically reduce the number of casual laborers38, business will lack the impetus to invest in continuous improvement programs on a grand scale. The risk for companies doing business in Thailand is that the recent debate surrounding wages and productivity will lead to more cost uncertainty in the short-term and with exports representing 70% of Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GDP, the new government needs to navigate this issue correctly.

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Governing - Conclusion Can the new government implement policies to overcome these challenges? Yes and No. Yes, the government will deliver a policy statement, but their ability to get buy-in from the civil service and industry will depend on which methods the government and its ministers employ to reach consensus. In a country where there is a cultural bias towards passive-aggressiveness this will not be easy. The more progressive the governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s plan, the more likely it is fail simply because various interest groups wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t appreciate the need for change; as the saying goes there is rice in the fields and fish in the stream. For business, now is a time to tread carefully when considering Thailand. Beyond the potential implications of continued political unrest, the country is falling behind in terms of its competitiveness. If a company already has significant assets in Thailand, they need to think through contingencies for these assets to ensure they are viable in an integrated marketplace. If a company is considering investment in Thailand it really needs to uncover the motivations behind the decision by asking how this decision will support the creation of value. This is not to say donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t invest in Thailand, depending on the industry and where in the value chain the investment will be, Thailand can offer significant advantages. If the decision brings the company closer to its supply base or its customers the decision might be the correct one. But in an integrated ASEAN market, Thailand is no longer the only choice and through its policies the government must act to correct this.

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Endnotes 1

Yingluck Shinawtra (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yingluck_Shinawatra (Thai: , RTGS: Yinglak Chinnawat, Thai pronunciation: *jîŋ.lák tɕʰīn.nā.wát+) 2

Macan-Marker, M (4 July 2011) Rural Thais roar to political forefront. In Aljazeera. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/07/20117415539124100.html 3

Profile: Yingluck Shinawatra (n.d.) In Aljazeera. Retrieved 24 July 2011 from http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/thaielection/2011/06/2011630133948265426.html 4

Lakorn (n.d.) In Wikipedia. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakorn

Office of the Election Commission of Thailand. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.ect.go.th/english/

Pongsudhirak, T (12 July 2011) Thailand's Shinawatras: From clan to dynasty. In BBC. Retrieved 24 July 2011 from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14075218 7

Muma, M (April 2010), Thailand’s Unstable Democracy. In The International. Retreived 24 July 2011 from http://theinternational.isb.ac.th/article.php?article=396 8

Profile: Thailand's reds and yellows. In BBC. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worldasia-pacific-13294268 9

Vanijaka, V. (22 May 2011) The clone VS The puppet. The Bangkok Post. In Bangkok Post. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/238213/the-clone-vs-the-puppet 10

Brandon, J. J. (29 June 2011) Will Thaksin Outmaneuver Thailand’s Military and Traditional Elites? In Asia. Retrieved, 24 July 2011 from http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2011/06/29/will-thaksin-outmaneuverthailands-military-and-traditional-elites/ 11

Truth and Reconcilliation Commission. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.justice.gov.za/trc/

Prateepchaikul, V. (23 June 2011). Gen Prayuth, erratic and worrisome. Bangkok Post. Retreived 24 July 2011 from http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/243602/general-prayuth-erratic-move 13

March, J.G. (1989) The Allocation of Attention: in Decisions and Organizations (pp. 3-12). Cambridge: Blackwell. 14

Pratruangkrai, P (16 June 2011) Next Govt must handle corruption: private companies. The Nation. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Next-Govt-must-handle-corruption-privatecompanies-30157916.html 15

Walker, A (9 July 2011) Thailand’s corruption record. In New Mandala. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2011/07/09/thailands-corruption-record/ 16

Saiyasombut, S (20 July 2011). The impounded Thai aircraft and lessons from the Thai media. In Asian Correspondent, Retrieved 20 July 2011 from http://asiancorrespondent.com/60414/the-impounded-thaiaircraft-and-lessons-from-the-thai-media/ 17

Ibid.

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Murray, L. & Barta, P (6 July 2011) Fears Rise Country's New Populism Could Boost Inflation, Cut Growth. The Wall Street Journal Asia. Retrieved 7 July 2011, from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304760604576427432523320132.html 19

Association of Canadian Community Colleges. (2004) Sri Lanka: Proposed Human Resource Investment Project. Project Preparation Technical Assistance Report for named project, ADB, Manila, p. 39. 20

Suthiwart-Narueput, S (22 February 2011). Macro Briefing: Some things to watch in the business landscape in 2011 and beyond. Presentation to the American Chamber of Commerce of Thailand. 21

Techavijit, V, (1 March 2007), P. 10 “The International Schools Phenomenon in Thailand and the Implementation of the International Baccalaureate”, Delivered at Oxford University. 22

Techavijit, V, (1 March 2007), P. 8 “The International Schools Phenomenon in Thailand and the Implementation of the International Baccalaureate”, Delivered at Oxford University. 23

The World University Rankings powered by Thomson Reuters. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/2010-2011/top-200.html 24

World University Rankings 2010. Retrieved 13 August 2011, from http://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2010 25

List of countries by population (n.d.) In Wikipedia. Retrieved 19 July 2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population 26

List of countries by GDP (nominal) (n.d.) In Wikipedia. Retrieved 19 July 2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) 27

Khoapa, W. (21 February 2011) Worldclass standards and boosting, The Nation. Retrieved 13 August 2011 from http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/02/21/national/Worldclass-standards-and-boosting30149111.html 28

The World University Rankings powered by Thomson Reuters. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/2010-2011/top-200.html 29

Editorial (24 June 2011) Parties ignore education's ills. Bangkok Post. Retrieved 19 July 2011 from http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/243703/parties-ignore-education-ills 30

Victor, C (19 July 2011) More 'thinking' students needed. The Malay Mail. Retrieved 19 July 2011 from http://www.mmail.com.my/content/78188-more-thinking-students-needed 31

Adapted from Schwab, Porter and Sachs (2002).

Suthiwart-Narueput, S (22 February 2011). Macro Briefing: Some things to watch in the business landscape in 2011 and beyond. Presentation to the American Chamber of Commerce of Thailand. 33

International Telecommunication Union, World Telecommunication/ICT Development Report and database, and World Bank estimates. Retrieved 20 August 2011 from http://www.worldbank.org/ 34

Bosworth, B Dr., Bhaopichitr, K Dr., Mahakit, W., Nararak, W, Thamsermsukh, A., Phoosakul, S. Khlaisuan, W., Wuttisorn, P. Dr. Limpanonda, S., Termpittayapaisith, S., Matin, K. Dr., Thongampai, R. Measuring Output and Productivity in Thailand’s Service-producing Industries A joint project of The National Economic and Social Development Board and the World Bank

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Trairatvorakul, P. (21 July 2011) ‘Thailand’s investment environment – looking forward’ Delivered to the Joint Foreign Chamber of Commerce of Thailand. 36

USDA - Rough rice yield, by country and geographical region. In International Rice Research Institute. Retrieved 20 July 2011, from http://beta.irri.org/solutions/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=250 37

Ibid.

casual labour. (2011). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved 20 July 2011 from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/690768/casual-labour

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Bangkok Office The Offices at CentralWorld 29th Floor 999/9 Rama I Road Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Kingdom 1of Thailand Yingluck Shinawtra

(n.d.). In Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yingluck_Shinawatra (Thai: Tel: +66 (2) 207-2392 *jîŋ.lák tɕʰīn.nā.wát+) pronunciation:

Retrieved 6 July 2011, from , RTGS: Yinglak Chinnawat, Thai

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Macan-Marker, M (4 July 2011) Rural Thais roar to political forefront. In Aljazeera. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/07/20117415539124100.html

Hong Kong Office 3 Two International Centre Profile: Finance Yingluck Shinawatra (n.d.) In Aljazeera. Retrieved 24 July 2011 19th Floorhttp://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/thaielection/2011/06/2011630133948265426.html 8 Finance4Street Lakorn (n.d.)SAR In Wikipedia. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakorn Central, Hong Kong 5

from

Office of the Election Commission of Thailand. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.ect.go.th/english/

Tel: +852 8191 5948 Fax: +85263015 9336 T (12 July 2011) Thailand's Shinawatras: From clan to dynasty. In BBC. Retrieved 24 July 2011 Pongsudhirak, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14075218

Stamford7Office Muma, M (April 2010), Thailand’s Unstable Democracy. In The International. Retreived 24 July 2011 from Soundview Plaza http://theinternational.isb.ac.th/article.php?article=396 Suite 700 1266 East8 Main Profile:Street Thailand's reds and yellows. In BBC. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worldasia-pacific-13294268 Stamford, CT 06902 United States of America 9 Vanijaka, V. (22 May 2011) The clone VS The puppet. The Bangkok Post. In Bangkok Post. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/238213/the-clone-vs-the-puppet

Tel: +1 (203) 285-6701 10 Fax: +1 (203) 907-1933 Truth and Reconcilliation Commission. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.justice.gov.za/trc/ 11

Brandon, J. J. (29 June 2011) Will Thaksin Outmaneuver Thailand’s Military and Traditional Elites? In Asia. www.fc-asia.com Retrieved, 24 July 2011 from http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2011/06/29/will-thaksin-outmaneuverwww.fc-america.com thailands-military-and-traditional-elites/ 12

Prateepchaikul, V. (23 June 2011). Gen Prayuth, erratic and worrisome. Bangkok Post. Retreived 24 July 2011 from http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/243602/general-prayuth-erratic-move 13

March, J.G. (1989) The Allocation of Attention: in Decisions and Organizations (pp. 3-12). Cambridge: Blackwell. 14

Walker, A (9 July 2011) Thailand’s corruption record. In New Mandala. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2011/07/09/thailands-corruption-record/ 16



Consider the environment 17

Ibid.

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