Prons & Cons of Selling & Buying in the Winter

Buying or Selling in the Winter PROS & CONS

Julie D. Martin

Real Estate Broker The frst thing we need to establish is, which are the winter months? According to the calendar, the frst day of winter was December 21st and the frst day of spring is March 20th. I have found that many people assume that the seasons in real estate match the seasons on the calendar, and that really isn’t the case. Let’s break this down a bit to make some sense of what we call “real estate markets” that we experience throughout the year.

The spring market is the busiest of all seasons in real estate because there are the most listings during that time of year, which translates into the most transactions. Contrary to what most people believe, summer is usually pretty slow in terms of sales, as this is the time that many people (buyers, sellers and realtors) are away enjoying the beautiful weather at their cottage or on vacation. In general, it’s just a much slower paced time of the year. Many people think that summer is busy in real estate, but they may be confusing the number of closings with the number of actual sales transactions. There are a lot of closings in the summer months, as most people with children want to be able to close when school is not in session, and the summer closings are usually for properties that were sold in the spring. The second busiest season in real estate is in the Fall, and the fall market gears up right around Labour Day. This market is the strongest when it is beautiful outside, so most years, the majority of the fall transactions have taken place by the end of October. Even though there are a lot of transactions taking place in the Fall, it is during a very short period of time. Once mid-November hits, the weather can sometimes dictate how the rest of the fall and the winter markets go. I just wanted to set this up, before discussing the winter market, so that you understand the different real estate markets throughout the year and how they fow from one season to the next. It also to de-bunks the idea that the real estate market coincides with the season in the calendar. In my experience, the real estate market usually runs about 4-6 weeks ahead of the calendar. The following annual events and factors tend to drive or affect the real estate markets:

• Weather • Summer vacation season • Back to school • Beginning of University/College semester(s) • Elections • Holiday season (Christmas) • Interest rates • Any new banking or federal rules

In addition, one other major world even that has affected our market in the Waterloo region (just like every other part of the world) is COVID. People realized that if they can work from home, they can work from home anywhere, so many Buyers migrated to areas that are less expensive than where they were currently living. Our market has always been infuenced by the GTA market, and COVID has only made that more intense. In general, the winter market runs from the end of November through the end of February. The big push at the end of the fall market is from buyers who want to get into their new home by Christmas. By the time the winter market starts, the Buyers who haven’t purchased something yet may resign to the fact that they may have to close in January or February. There tends to be a bit of competition for those who have been looking for a home throughout the fall and haven’t found one yet. People who are focussed on a timeline tend to get a little more desperate to outbid other Buyers at this time of the year. Homes that are vacant and can accommodate a short closing are often appealing for this type of buyer.

The drawback to buying this time of year is that the pickings are slim. Since most people thinking of selling their home like to do so in the spring or fall, the inventory is usually very low in the winter months. We have been experiencing low inventory for several years in Waterloo Region, and the last year the inventory has been exceptionally low. The number of transactions during certain months in the last year have not been much lower than previous years, but that speaks to the fact that there are just more buyers than ever moving into our area.

I don’t think I need to convince anyone that our inventory has been low these last couple of years, but this article is more about the pros and cons of buying or selling in the winter months. My point is that during a time when we’re already experiencing a shortage of listings, you should be aware that winter is historically the time of any particular year that inventory typically is the lowest. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that these next couple of months could be among the best months to sell.

There is no doubt that sellers who get on the market just before the spring surge are amongst the most successful because they don’t have nearly as much competition. Buyers who have been patiently waiting for new listings to hit the market, are often chomping at the bit to offer on one of the frst homes to hit the market then because they know it’s probably going to get even more crazy as the spring market heats up and they may have offered and missed out on previous listings in months past.

Winter weather sometimes keeps out of town buyers from making the trek over, and buyers who are available to do viewings might as well stay in the market this time of year and give it their best while there’s not quite as many people looking. There have even been some situations where an ice storm worked in a buyer’s favour by keeping others away, so don’t make the mistake of waiting until the conditions are just right (i.e., weather and number of listings available) to keep you from staying in the game.

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