U.S. Elections 2012: Will the Debates Change the Game? David Sylvan Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
The Latest Numbers: 1
The Latest Numbers: 2
State of the Economy Models • • • • •
Changes over time since term began Various measures, tied to output and income Not unemployment Other correlates, though vary Particularly for United States
Obama has a lead, but: • Error rate (around 2%) • Translation into Electoral College problematic
Random Walk Model • No “fundamentals” • Campaigns nudge up or down
Mean Reversion Model • Individuals have predispositions to vote for candidates of one party • Campaigns activate those predispositions
“Fundamentals” • Sex, race, age, education, income, region, religiosity • Ideology and party identification • Economic evaluations (not always included)
Data support mean reversion model
Why is mean reversion better? • Asymmetry in decision to vote • Asymmetry in for whom vote (few to no switches)
Most voters are partisans • In the U.S., 56% currently self‐identify as Democrats or Republicans • So‐called independents usually lean toward one of the two parties, election after election • So at most 12% of electorate is “independent,” and usually much less than that (and real “switches” usually take decades) • “Leaners” and partisans share same political values
Campaign strategy • Activate partisans and leaners • Through appearances, advertising, personal contacts • Both “pro” own candidate and “anti” opposing one • Spend relatively little time on persuading opposing partisans to switch
Turnout • Middling in US: 61% in 2008 presidential election • (US by no means worst; and general downward trend in most Western democracies) • Recession discourages partisans of incumbent party from voting
Campaign strategies • For Democrats: activate by other arguments (e.g., gender; class bias) • (Bad economic news doesn’t hurt, but good news doesn’t help) • For Republicans: activate by contrast (Romney as the anti‐Obama)
The debates • Challenger: be aggressive, draw contrasts • Mostly activated partisans: almost no Obama supporters switched sides • (Romney’s “moderation” less important to his partisans than his energy level) • “Ceiling”: only so many partisans to activate • Thus was a blip, unless Obama falls apart tonight
Obama is thus still ahead, but: • Recession holds down Democratic turnout • Democratic demographic in any case has lower turnout (young people, minorities, poor) • Anti‐“fraud” provisions • Racism (lost 5% in 2008, estimated loss of 3% in 2012)
November 6 will be a very long night