BER 22 - Foreword and welcome

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Birmingham Economic Review 2022

Foreword and Welcome

Connect. Support. Grow.

Introduction

The annual Birmingham Economic Review is produced by the University of Birmingham’s City REDI and the Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce. It is an in depth exploration of the economy of England’s second city and a high quality resource for informing research, policy and investment decisions.

This year’s report provides comprehensive analysis and expert commentary on the state of the city’s economy as it emerges from disruption caused by the pandemic into a new period of high inflation and uncertainty. The Birmingham Economic Review assesses the resilience of the city, its businesses and its people to the set of challenges stemming from the UK’s vote to leave the EU, the coronavirus pandemic and now the energy crisis. It includes an update on the development of the region’s infrastructure and highlights opportunities for growth, building on existing strengths and assets.

The most recently available datasets as of 30th September 2022 have been used. In many circumstances there is a significant lag between available data and the current period. Contributions from experts in academia, business and policy have been included to provide timely insight into the status of the Greater Birmingham economy.

Report Geography

The report focuses on the ‘Greater Birmingham city region’ defined by the boundaries of the Greater Birmingham and Solihull Local Enterprise Partnership (GBS LEP). The GBS LEP area consists of the following local authorities: Birmingham, Solihull, Bromsgrove, Cannock Chase, East Staffordshire, Lichfield, Redditch, Tamworth, Wyre Forest.

References to the ‘West Midlands region’, or ‘West Midlands (ITL1)’, are to the large scale region at International Territorial Level 1 (ITL1). There are nine ITL1 regions in England: North East, North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East and South West in addition to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. Note that ITL recently replaced the EU’s Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS). Geographies of ITL and NUTS territories generally correspond except for minor differences at local authority level outside the Midlands.

References to the ‘West Midlands metropolitan area’ are to the West Midlands county comprising seven metropolitan districts (WM 7M): Birmingham, Solihull, Coventry and Dudley, Sandwell, Walsall, Wolverhampton.

References to the ‘West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA) area’ are to that administered by the Combined Authority.

Note that figures may not always total exactly due to rounding differences. Figures in some tables may be undisclosed due to statistical or confidentiality reasons.

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Index

Foreword and Welcome

Chapter 1. Economy: Crises and Resilience

Chapter 2. Business: Disrupted Markets

Chapter 3. People: Challenging Times

Chapter 4. Place: Connecting Sustainable Communities

Chapter 5. Opportunity: Building on Strengths

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Brexit, COVID 19; recent years’ editions of the Birmingham Economic Review have all opened with reflections on once in a generation events, unprecedented global disruptions and their impact on the local business community. And following Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine precipitating an energy crisis this, our sixth edition of the Birmingham Economic review, continues that extraordinary precedent.

The start of 2022 saw real positivity around the relaxing of remaining COVID 19 restrictions in the UK, even as firms navigated “the great resignation” and rising import costs due to the rapid restarting of global trade. In February, Europe was shocked by the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This brutal attack saw disruption of trade in key commodities and rapid introduction of international trade sanctions which have disrupted energy markets, contributing to crises in both the cost of living and the cost of doing business across the UK.

This year, the country has also witnessed a change in leadership with the announcement of a new Prime Minister in Liz Truss, shortly followed by the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the longest reigning British monarch, and the accession of His Majesty King Charles III. The first fiscal event since the new Prime Minister took office did little to relieve the concerns of those most impacted by ongoing cost crises, causing serious concern amongst the global investor community and consequently a run on the pound and increase in gilt yields. Markets have since calmed although uncertainty over the reforms and fiscal implications remains.

The resilience of the local business community continues to be tested, but there remain significant opportunities for the city region, not least in ensuring we make the most of the legacy benefits of the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games. This summer, Birmingham showcased the very best of everything we have to offer to more than 5 million visitors and hundreds of millions tuning in to the 11 days of sport, and we must build on this incredible success to attract new visitors, future events and further investment.

We must also maximise the connectivity benefits of investment in both HS2 and localised transport infrastructure, connecting communities across Birmingham with new opportunities across the city and the country. Birmingham has a unique opportunity to leverage the array of benefits that the once in a generation investment in HS2 and associated local developments will bring. We must also capitalise on associated opportunities in business decarbonisation and energy resilience.

While challenges persist, we are encouraged to see positive sentiment about the future of the region reflected in commentary throughout this report from academics, industry leaders and experts. As a Chamber, we have championed the voice of local business since 1813 and we will continue to do so throughout the ongoing economic circumstances, with the persevering aim to make Birmingham the best place to start, grow, move and invest in a business.

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Henrietta Brealey, Chief Executive, Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce

Welcome

I am pleased to welcome you to the Birmingham Economic Review (BER2022), on behalf of my colleagues at City REDI and the University of Birmingham. This is the latest edition of our annual report on the economic health of the region, produced in partnership with the Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce.

The UK has now experienced a series of economic shocks, from Brexit, through the Covid pandemic, the Ukraine situation and subsequent increases in energy costs and food prices, to ongoing uncertainties around interest rates, debt and the strength of our currency. The West Midlands region has been hit harder than most by the effects of these shocks. Regional GVA declined by 11.8% in 2020 and recovery has been slower than in other UK regions.

Once again, lower income communities are feeling the impact most and we are seeing a growing polarisation between deprived communities and those with the capital assets, skills and income to ride through the downturn.

We report on the economic and social impacts of these shocks, presenting data and indicators as evidence of the severity of the regional downturn, on businesses and households. But we also highlight that there are significant growth opportunities in the region, many of which would also improve inclusivity. Future growth, which is sustainable and inclusive, partly depends on improvements in our regional innovation infrastructure, which in turn depend on improvements in our skills base.

BER22 once again features extensive commentary, analysis and insight from a wide range of public and private sector experts and stakeholders. My thanks to them and the City REDI team (Kelvin Humphreys in particular) for all of these contributions, which serve to bring all the data to life.

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Professor Simon Collinson, DPVC for Regional Engagement and Director of the City Region Economic Development Institute (City REDI and WMREDI), Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham
Connect. Support. Grow. Contact Us: For queries related to the Birmingham Economic Review 2022 please contact: Emily Stubbs Senior Policy and Projects Manager Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce E.Stubbs@birmingham-chamber.com Kelvin Humphreys Policy and Data Analyst City-REDI, University of Birmingham K.Humphreys.1@bham.ac.uk Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce 75 Harborne Road Edgbaston Birmingham B15 3DH T: 0121 274 3262 E: policy@birmingham-chamber.com W: greaterbirminghamchambers.com

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