Alberta and Pandemic Management Lessons for Canada

In September of 2021, the residents of Canada were generally overwhelmed with stories from the federal campaign trail, COVID-19 vaccines, and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have been in post-season contention numerous times across their forty-plus year history. Canada observes federal and provincial votes at a minimum of every four years with over-confident Premiers, Prime Ministers and opposition parties in minority governments occasionally rolling the dice. Justin Trudeau was in many ways fortunate to not be seeking office movers on September 21. Recent events in Alberta have little or no precedent in Canada. Premier Jason Kenney initially apologized for his actions in the early stages of summer, only to retract. Voters and his own party are seriously questioning his leadership like no other incident in Alberta or perhaps Canadian history. On September 15, the Premier declared a public health emergency and indicated the province could run out of intensive care beds and staff within the next ten days. He simultaneously announced his government would initiate a passport system which, like Ontario during most of the summer, had been avoided at all political costs. However in Alberta the program is not a vaccination passport. It is a restriction exemption. The restriction exemption allows businesses to operate without capacity limits and other measures if they secure proof of vaccination or a negative test result for entrance. The policy applies at restaurants, nightclubs, casinos, theatres and fitness facilities among others. The current crisis originated last June when Kenney promised the “best summer ever” as he announced a plan to be the first and most open province in Canada by July 1. Most restrictions were lifted including the ban on indoor social gatherings, mask mandates, and physical distancing requirements. A devastating fourth wave swept Alberta and the province soon faced what National Post writer Matt Gurney termed the most acute healthcare system crisis of any Canadian jurisdiction during this pandemic. The province was in deep, deep trouble. On September 14, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw admitted the lifting of all public health restrictions established the “trajectory” for the explosive fourth wave devastating the health care system. She deeply regretted her role in convincing Albertans the pandemic was over. On that same day, Rick Bell of the Calgary Sun provided a column that connected Kenney’s best summer ever with the worst ICU numbers ever. The Premier initially admitted his government was wrong and apologized for the lifted restrictions. However as the nationally televised September 15 news conference continued, Kenney further stated he was not going to apologize for his decision to relax public health restrictions over the summer.

Alberta journalist Graham Thomson noted that to say Jason Kenney is in trouble is the equivalent of saying Niagara Falls drips water. It is self-made trouble where the Premier has managed to obliterate his image as a competent leader. Voters will tolerate incompetence from their government as long as their leaders present at least a veneer of competence. Kenney has disintegrated that façade. Veteran CTV analyst Don Martin perhaps best summarized the Alberta predicament on September 24 when he observed that Kenney’s political fate is in the ICU and falling fast. The Premier’s immediate response has been to ask for assistance from the rest of Canada – not the first province to pursue that option. The Globe and Mail editorial board noted that Deena Hinshaw essentially declared the pandemic over. In her judgement, COVID-19 had been reduced to an endemic similar to influenza. On July 1, as only 76 new cases appeared on the provincial roster sheet, long-standing restrictions were terminated and not phased out. There were twice as many COVID-19 hospitalizations in Alberta than Ontario by September 16, despite three times as many people here. On July 1 there were 165 Albertans in hospital which escalated to 954 by September 20 with 216 in ICU.

In the early days of summer 2021 when restrictions were dropped in Alberta expectations were rampant that other provinces, including Ontario, would follow. The best decisions are often those that do not proceed. The Calgary Stampede was wide open. Kitchener-Waterloo Oktoberfest operated under restrictions. Who made the best decisions?

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Art Sinclair

Art is Vice President Policy and Advocacy for the Greater Kitchener Waterloo Chamber of Commerce.