Endnotes

1 ONS, 31 March 2022, ‘Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics: 1990 to 2020’

2 DB Hayhow et al, 2019, The state of nature 2019

3 State of Nature Partnership, 2019,

State of nature: a summary for the

UK, RSPB 4 See, for example: YouGov poll carried out for Wildlife and

Countryside Link between 21-24

January 2022, at: www.wcl.org.uk/ assets/uploads/img/files/YouGov_ nature_access_polling_ results_24.1.2022.xlsx 5 Adapted from: HMG, 2021, Net zero strategy: charts and tables (updated 5 April 2022) 6 National Food Strategy, 2021, The plan 7 Based on calories produced. See:

National Food Strategy, 2021, The plan, p 235 8 National Food Strategy, 2021, The plan, p 102 9 National Food Strategy, 2021, The plan. England only figures have been scaled up to UK wide figures based on agricultural area in the respective countries. 10 Green Alliance analysis based on emissions data from N Poore and T

Nemecek, 2018, ‘Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers’, Science, vol 360, pp 987-992; and sequestration data from T Bradfer-

Laurence, et al, 2021, ‘The potential contribution of terrestrial nature-based solutions to a national

‘net zero’ climate target’, Journal of applied ecology, vol 58, pp 2,3492,360. Total UK emissions from agriculture and land use are assumed to be 63 MtCO2e per year based on: HMG, 2021, Net zero strategy: charts and tables (updated 5 April 2022). We assume the area of restored habitat grows in line with the rate of habitat creation under the

‘Widespread Engagement Scenario’ of the Climate Change Committee’s sixth carbon budget. 11 Green Alliance analysis based on: A

Lamb, et al, 2019, ‘The consequences of land sparing for birds in the

United Kingdom’, Journal of applied ecology, vol 56, issue 8, pp 1,8701,881. We assumed 750,000 hectares of woodland, 600,000 hectares of upland bog and 400,000 hectares of other habitats were created on improved and unimproved grassland. We assumed that, by 2050, bird densities in these recently created habitats would reflect the population densities for those habitat types reported in A Lamb, et al, 2019, which is based on RSPB data. So, to estimate the population change for each species, we multiplied the area of each habitat (broadleaved woodland, upland bog and others) created by the difference in population density for each species in that habitat type versus the grassland habitat it replaced. We estimated the population size at 2050 by combining this change in population size with the anticipated change for each species (as reported in A Lamb, et al, 2019) predicted for 2050 in absence of any habitat creation. For each species, we calculated the estimated population size at 2050 as a proportion of the present day population size and then estimated the average change for all species by finding the arithmetic mean of these estimates.

12 Ibid

13 Defra, 11 January 2022, ‘Farm accounts in England – dataset’

14 National Food Strategy, 2021, The plan 15 All cost data includes adjustment for unpaid labour of the farmer, their spouse and unpaid business partners. Defra, 11 January 2022,

‘Farm accounts in England datasets from 2015/16 to 2019/20 16 A survey of 700 farmers carried out by Farmers Weekly in 2018 found that farmers report working on average 65 hours a week, with some livestock farmers working in excess of 100 hours a week: Farmers

Weekly, 28 September 2018,

‘Fit2Farm: Hard work and long hours take toll on farmers’, www.fwi. co.uk/farm-life/health-andwellbeing/fit2farm-farmers-weeklycampaign-to-improve-farmershealth#tabs-2. Average Farm

Business Income for farms in ‘less favoured areas’ in the five years from 2015-2020 was £23,400: Defra, 11

January 2022, ‘Historical farm accounts in England’ datasets from 2015/16 to 2019/20. Assuming a 65 hour week, this gives an estimated average hourly pay of £6.92, compared to National Living Wage rates of £7.20 to £8.21 over the same period: www.gov.uk/nationalminimum-wage-rates 17 The National Food Strategy, 2021,

The plan. This worked out how much would need to be paid per hectare to give a farmer managing a 50 hectare farm an income of £28,000 per year for restoring and maintaining semi-natural habitat such as woodland. All other data are from: Defra, 11 January 2022, ‘Farm accounts in England datasets from 2015/16 to 2019/20. 18 National Food Strategy, 2020, The

Plan 19 R Pywell et al, 2015, ‘Wildlife-friendly farming increases crop yield: evidence for ecological intensification’, Proceedings of the

Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol 282, issue 1,816, no. 1740 20 Based on data from: Our world in data, ‘Fertilizers’, accessed 19 June 2022.

21 Ibid

22 Adapted from: National Food

Strategy, 2021, The evidence. Data from: Defra, September 2019, The future farming and environment evidence compendium 23 Green Alliance analysis based on: T

Finch et al, 2020, ‘Evaluating spatially explicit sharing-sparing scenarios for multiple environmental outcomes’, Journal of applied ecology, vol 58, issue 3, pp 655-666; T Finch, et al, 2020,

Assessing the utility of land sharing and land sparing for birds, butterflies and ecosystem services in lowland England, Report to Natural

England, ref no: NECR280, pp 1-73 24 Ibid

25 D Gabriel et al, 2013, ‘Food production vs. biodiversity: comparing organic and conventional agriculture’, Journal of applied ecology, vol 50, issue 2, pp 355-364 26 T Finch, et al, 2020, Assessing the utility of land sharing and land sparing for birds, butterflies and ecosystem services in lowland

England, Report to Natural England, ref no: NECR280, pp 1-7 27 T Searchinger et al, 2019, Creating a sustainable food future: a menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050, final report, p 73 28 National Food Strategy, 2021, The plan; Climate Change Committee, 2020, The sixth carbon budget: the

UK’s path to net zero 29 Based on analysis in: National Food

Strategy, 2021, The plan 30 Yahoo News, 15 June 2022, ‘Funding to rewild and restore landscapes

‘essential’, Government warned’ 31 BBC News, 9 June 2022, ‘Climate change: New Zealand’s plan to tax cow and sheep burps’ 32 Farmers Weekly, 6 January 2022,

‘Countryside Stewardship payment rates rise by 30%’ 33 C Davey et al, 2010, ‘Regional variation in the efficacy of Entry

Level Stewardship in England’,

Agriculture, ecosystems and environment, vol 139, issues 1-2, pp 121-128

21

Green Alliance 18th Floor Millbank Tower 21-24 Millbank London SW1P 4QP

020 7233 7433 ga@green-alliance.org.uk www.green-alliance.org.uk @GreenAllianceUK blog: www.greenallianceblog.org.uk