Winter 2023

ODE TO THE BELLWETHER

Sheep are not particularly smart, especially the Australian ones, but they can teach us a thing or two about climate change.

Some sheep are known as bellwethers, they lead from the front, bells ringing for a flock to follow. Bellwethers have come to indicate a trend or direction, and like these smartest of sheep, many farmers now have carbon footprints and farm plans. They are our bellwethers for change in that other weather, and they are already farming differently to adapt to this change.

A judas sheep has a similar disposition (but a more sinister role) at a meat plant. Their bell might ring reassuringly, but soon becomes a clanger when it leads an unsuspecting flock up a race to their demise. Those that follow this example are a bit like that river in Egypt (called denial) They don’t want to think too much about what’s around the corner and generally get fleeced, having had the wool pulled over their eyes.

Some sheep get mismothered, like those cosying up to politicians in their woolly suits,

generally better at sitting up the front, rather than leading from the front. Others listen to soap boxes encouraging them to aim higher … when it comes to the men loos at Fieldays, they probably have a fair point. Like Turkey Lurky, many think the sky is falling and then cry wolf to unsettle the flock … some end up like Aussies with their heads in a fence!

Climate change can make sheep of us all one way or the other if we let it, and while we haven’t found an easy solution yet, we are getting warmer! We have yet to have a eureka moment like Archimedes when he stepped out of the bathtub and ran through town, but we do have some sensible bellwethers leading us in the right direction one sheep dip at a time in the country, and this journey will lead to greener pastures if we stay the course.

GREG’S COLUMN

A warm, wet, and rather benign autumn has left me craving a cold, dry winter. Unfortunately, thus far, two months into winter most of the North Island has continued to see rain and certain areas resemble a swamp. While other parts attempting to recover from cyclone Gabrielle continue to struggle with slips, severe weather, and infrastructure not yet rebuilt.

Temperatures, aside from a couple of frosts, have remained relatively mild also. This warmth allowed grass to continue to grow, but as with the season to date, the grass is not of a quality to push milk production or set liveweight gain records.

Weather is one of the factors that drives decisions around culling cattle off farms, and we have certainly seen that so far this summer and autumn. Bulls came into the plants early but then sat on farm until weight gain versus worsening ground conditions got them moving again. The cows ran late due to warm weather and excess feed, but by late June, the amount of water laying around from persistent rain had farmers on the phone to their Greenlea buyer.

Prime cattle that have been held a little longer due to feed availability are now making their way to the processor. Carcass weights are maintaining levels well above 300 kg, which is unusual for this time of the year. This is pleasing as I am pushing the buying team to refine their prime supply businesses. Ideally, Greenlea desires a 270kg to 395kg carcass weight animal that is not too lean (an L grade) or too fat (a T grade). Cattle with a carcass weight that falls below 270kg or over 395kg will incur a lesser schedule payment. Markets drive these specifications, and we attempt to get as many products into the most profitable market as possible.

So, what am I seeing? What pearls of wisdom can be laid at your feet? Greenlea appears to be out the other side of the lingering issues of Covid 19. Labour is back to reasonable numbers, with skill levels on plant also improving. Despite several hurdles so far this season, we are on track to achieve our second highest tally ever.

The market is not being friendly. China is not competing for our grinding beef which has seen the US flooded with product and kept bids well below the highs of 2021 and 2022. The outlook for red meat is still positive from a demand perspective, but I can say now that pricing will remain below the last two seasons for some time yet.

Going into next season.

Bulls: I will do the same this October as I did last season. I will set the schedule at a level that encourages early supply. The schedule will gradually drop at a rate to outpace weight gain. Attitudes that December is the best time to process bulls need to be challenged. I understand that if you process cattle in October the grass curve then presents a problem in “what will eat the grass?”, but with replacement costs being so elevated during traditional buy in periods there may be opportunities available for cheaper replacements at different weights or other species.

Prime: Greenlea has enviable numbers of available prime. In the near future, all prime suppliers will need to be New Zealand Farm Assured (NZFAP) with a move to NZFAP+. They will also need to have a working Farm Plan and in some areas require a Fresh Water Farm Plan. As already stated, cattle in the 270-395 kg carcass range will receive the best schedule returns. I suggest you speak with your Greenlea buyer to book space well in advance and get a better understanding of Greenlea’s prime supply strategy. Planning for prime allocation is imperative with the numbers currently available.

Cows: This remains the species Greenlea processes the most of. With cost of production rising and milk prices coming down farmers will likely look at where efficiencies can be gained amongst their herd. With a decided lack of beef and Friesian bull calves being reared, there could be good returns in the next two seasons in rearing a few non replacement calves.

With this issue of the Bulletin, we are launching two new regular feature columns that we hope you will enjoy. The first is an article by one of our livestock buyers, Tom Aubrey, who covers areas of South Auckland and North Waikato. Our second new feature is “A Farmer’s Perspective”. This issue’s perspective is from Bruce Cameron. We welcome your interest in contributing an article for future issues.

WINTER REPORT FROM THE ROAD

With winter truly here, it is a good time to reflect on the season to date. Nearing the end of my second season as a Greenlea buyer, the past two years could not have been more different. The previous year saw extended dry periods as well as Covid staffing issues at plants. This year an outstanding summer for grass growth followed by major wet weather events up and down the country has caused serious implications to farmers and communities. This has made livestock procurement for both works and replacement cattle very challenging.

Currently, I am covering the North Waikato/ South Auckland area which comes with its own sets of challenges, shrinking pastoral land with pressure from upcoming housing and residential development, and carbon farming in the hill country areas. This year has been difficult for

many with rising interest rates and some pinched margins due to increased on-farm costs and higher values for replacement cattle in the post-Christmas markets. Space constraints partially through the peak period make it important to have good working relationships with our clients to maintain positive outcomes. As mental health becomes more of a talking point is has been good to see farmers locally coming together to aid others and overcome the many challenges and that have been thrown at them this past year.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds and looking at it with a positive outlook as the many challenges and opportunities arise in the ever-changing agricultural environment.

TOM AUBREY | LIVESTOCK BUYER

''...the past two years could not have been more different.''

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MORRINSVILLE SITE DEVELOPMENT

With the automated blast tunnel now completed, stage 2 of the site development is well underway.

The boning room had a reasonably significant overhaul in late 2022, and within a 2-week period, was completely transformed. The new layout is now commissioned and running above expectations thanks to the many dedicated staff and contractors that made this happen. Stage three is now underway with construction of the boning room extension in progress. This project is quite unique and must take place without impacting on the plant and current operations. The upgrade is based on the need to add flexibility to the plant and match some inevitable land use changes.

As these plant upgrades take shape, it’s important to remind ourselves that it’s very much the culture and can-do attitude that

makes these projects successful. Along with growing the plant, we are committed to growing the team. With plant growth comes people growth, and as such, both plants are actively recruiting good honest team members year-round.

A FARMER’S PERSPECTIVE

A very interesting season we have had to date on the farm. For most, it has been extremely challenging with excessive amounts of rain causing large amounts of damage to the land through landslides that have not only damaged pasture, but also had a massive impact on the on-farm infrastructure; fences, buildings, water supply and roading networks bearing the brunt of it. For others they have had a good season, but it would be safe to say that everyone has had to manage wet ground conditions and manage their stock mix accordingly.

The future of farming in New Zealand is being seriously challenged by Government and Regional Councils’ regulations. Sensible, well thought out rules and regulations, that have been well researched and consulted on at an on-farm

level, and achieve farmer buy in, will work, but regulations that are coming from an aspirational perspective have no chance.

Plan Change One (PC1) in the Waikato Regional Council plan is about to enter the environment court.

PC1 started back in 2014 and was notified in 2016. There has been a lot of water under the bridge since then. One of the biggest issues has been trying to get agreement between the various agricultural parties. To date this has not happened, so now we are in the hands of the environment court judges. What’s proposed is going to be a lot more costly on farm.

BRUCE CAMERON | FARMER