THE PATHFINDER REPORT A Quarterly Publication of Greenspring
MARKET REVIEW Both stocks and bonds flashed warning signals in the third quarter as stock indices around the world dropped and U.S. government bonds rallied in anticipation of a global economic slow down. Investors focused their attention on Europe, as concerns continue to mount about many fringe countries’ ability to repay their debt (e.g. Greece, Italy, Spain). These concerns are exacerbated by the fact that most of these countries’ debts are owned by European banks. As the quarter came to a close, continued progress allowed the European Union to inch closer to a resolution as Germany, the largest and most influential country, voted to expand the European Financial Stability Fund, signaling that the favored solution is to continue funding these countries’ debts, hopefully giving them more time to sort out their financial problems.
INDEX PERFORMANCE AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2011
The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond reached its all-time low of 1.7% on September 23rd. With the extremely high demand for risk free investments, this indicates the gloomy economic outlook that investors have for the future. At the same time, while many are expecting a recession, most economic data is just not pointing in that direction. Employment, corporate earnings, and growth in Gross Domestic Product show a moderation but not a contraction. It is also worth noting that the excesses you tend to see entering a recession (high inventories, low unemployment, and increases in consumer spending) are not evident this time around. We remain cautiously optimistic and are awaiting further pullbacks for advantageous entry points into the stock, real estate and commodities markets.
1 Year
3 Year
5 year
-15.28%
0.55%
1.45%
-0.92%
-19.01%
-9.11%
-0.88%
-2.90%
-22.56%
-16.15%
6.27%
4.87%
-6.50%
-5.47%
-1.66%
-0.25%
3.82%
5.26%
7.97%
6.53%
2.95%
1.53%
4.96%
4.58%
-1.72%
1.00%
11.88%
n/a
-6.33%
1.30%
13.75%
7.12%
-15.33%
-0.28%
-1.65%
-3.54%
-11.33%
0.02%
-5.67%
-1.10%
-8.44%
4.62%
24.98%
n/a
Equities Domestic Equities Russell 3000 Index
Foreign Equities MSCI World ex USA Index
Emerging Market Equities MSCI Emerging Market Index
Hedged Equities HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index
Fixed Income Domestic Bonds Barclays Aggregate Bond Index
Foreign Bonds
MARKET PREVIEW
QTD
JP Morgan GBI Global ex-US Index
Emerging Market Bonds JP Morgan Global EMBI
High Yield Bonds ML High Yield Master II
Real Assets Real Estate DJ US REIT Index
Commodities DJ UBS Commodity Index
Infrastructure Alerian MLP Index
This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and illustrates historical performance on asset classes using indices as a proxy. This does not represent any actual account performance. Indices are unmanaged. You cannot invest directly in an index. This is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy.
THE PATHFINDER REPORT A Quarterly Publication of Greenspring
MANAGER RETURNS (AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2011) QTD
TACTICAL WEIGHTINGS YTD Asset Class
Equities
Tactical Weighting
DFA US Core Equity II
-19.16%
-14.02%
Domestic Equities
DFA International Core Equity
-21.27%
-17.71%
Foreign Equities
DFA Emerging Market Core Equity
-24.25%
-24.06%
Emerging Market Equities
Overweight
The Merger Fund
-4.00%
-1.20%
Hedged Equities
Overweight
The Gateway Fund
-4.75%
-2.23%
Domestic Bonds
Overweight
NEW
Foreign Bonds
Underweight
NEW
Underweight
Fixed Income
Underweight Neutral
Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond
-0.14%
1.52%
Emerging Market Bonds
PIMCO Foreign Bond Fund
2.83%
4.28%
High Yield Bonds
Fidelity New Markets Income Fund
-2.08%
2.37%
Real Estate
Neutral
Vanguard Corporate High Yield
-3.64%
1.09%
Commodities
Neutral
Infrastructure
Neutral
Real Assets Vanguard REIT Index ETF
-14.55%
-5.82%
2.36%
10.18%
PIMCO Commodity Real Return Fund
-11.19%
-9.59%
Kayne Anderson MLP Fund
-6.37%
-6.80%
iShares S&P Global Infrastructure ETF
-14.57%
-7.48%
TIAA Real Estate
Overweight
NEW
This report is intended as a quarterly update only for Greenspring clients who have given us discretionary trading authority over their portfolio. This is not intended to depict performance of any particular account or portfolio, but rather to illustrate historical market performance on underlying fund managers to which discretionary portfolios may be allocated. Additionally not every portfolio contains all other funds listed here, since each portfolio is managed according to the individual risk tolerance of each client. This is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security. Although the material has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, no guarantee can be made as to its accuracy. Greenspring does not render legal, accounting or tax advice. Š 2011 Greenspring