September Sales Set Another Record Why Aren’t Prices Up More?
By Mark Pruner
families with kids, however, with limited inventory we are seeing more showings to families than we are to downsizers. Removing a few trees to create a yard when you only have 3 – 4 months of supply starts to look much more viable to buyers. House prices up 15.2% in Greenwich – Sort of
Once again sales of single family home in Greenwich set a record with 116 sales. This is up 150% from last year. We’ve never had a September with triple digit sales. Post-recession, the highest number of sales on the Greenwich MLS were 63 sales in 2015. Given that we had 193 contracts as of the end of August, I expected that we would have a very good September as these contracts closed, but I’m still surprised that sales set a new post-recession record for any month. For the year, we have sold 577 houses in Greenwich and this is more than the 526 houses we sold in all of 2019. Now 2019 was not a great year, but we will easily break the 600 house sales level this year as we have 173 contracts waiting to close. Any year over 600 sales is a good year for Greenwich. But we will likely be over 700 sales, which makes for a great year. If you just take the 173 contracts, we have outstanding, also up 150% over last year, and add them to the sales YTD, you come up with 750 sales and contracts. We might even exceed 800 sales, but more on that later. I say might, because our 173 contracts are down from our 193 contracts at the end of August. We may finally see the sales curve start to drop in October as our contracts are down. It just depends on how many of the 173 contracts that we have waiting to close, actually do close in October versus later in the year. In a normal October we sell around 41 houses we should easily double that this year and might make it three months in a row with over 100 sales. The market last week was as hot as it has been all year, when you look at our weekly transaction, sales and contracts signed. Last week we tied our previous high for the year at 68 transactions. All these transactions are sucking up inventory quickly. We are down to 47 7 single family homes or down 23% from last year when we had 622 listings at the end of September. Inventory is down in every price category from under $600,000 to $10 million. We a re up 2 l ist i ngs over $10 million to 35 listings. As we are seeing an increase in highend sales over $5 million, we are seeing more people listing their houses. The increase in listings over $5 million has been mostly matched by sales. The results are big drops in months of supply. For example, when you take the 8 sales over $10 million and add in the 4 contracts, the months of supply have dropped from 4 years of supply to a little over 2 years of supply. At t he h ig h-end, we went from a cold market to a warm market and from $5 - 6.5 million we only have 13 months of supply. Dropdown to $3 – 4 million and you are looking at 6.5 months of supply. This is the kind of number you see in Greenwich around $1 million not at triple that price. September sales have also distinctly tightened at several price points. When you take the September sales and analyze them to calculate months of supply you can see big drops from $1 million all the way to the very top. I have a listing that I put on last week at 343 Sound Beach Ave in Old Greenwich for $2,195,000. It’s an older house, but it has been freshly renovated and hit a sweet spot with lots of showing right out of the gates. I’m seeing the same thing at 677 River Road in Cos Cob, which is on for $1,3900,000. This is a nice 2,500 s.f. house on 1.1 acres. Being on River Road it slopes up from the Mianus River and has a limited backyard, normally a significant issue for
This chart shows Single Family Home Sales in Greenwich by month with the 10-year average. Chart prepared by Mark Pruner.
Sales were up 150% in September and set a record for any month since the recession and also were the best September for any year. Market activity is as high as it has been all year with contracts up 150% over last year. Contracts may have peaked, albeit in August rather than in May like in a normal year. Home prices in Greenwich have risen, but not as much as you might expect with this level of demand.
I was talking to my brother, Russ Pruner, a Realtor, since 1980 who has seen a lot of ups and a couple of downs in Greenwich real estate. We were both marveling at how all this demand hasn’t pushed up prices more. When you look at the sales price to assessment ratio for 2020, we are only up 1.0% for the year in sales price. On the other hand if you compare the average sales price for this year so far to last year, we are up from a 2019 average of $2.38 million to $2.59 million or an increase of 9.0 percent. This matches some of the price increases that we saw in the 80’s, 90’s and early digits. In many of these years we were seeing double digit percentage increases in prices per year. In 2004, we sold 835 houses listed on the Greenwich MLS and had another 144 private sales. If you want a dramatic number, the median increase is 15.2% in sales price for September 2020 compared to last year’s median. So, we are seeing price increases in the last two months as you would expect with sales over 100 house in each of the last two months. But I k now, what you a re saying, but how much is my house up. My best guess 4 – 6% with much of that coming in the last couple of months, but why isn’t it more? First off, each house is different and is its own micromarket. Houses that need work in Byram have not increased like moderately priced houses in midcountry, then again Byram saw some of our best appreciation pre-COVID. Also, as I’ve written before, COVID buyers are running from NYC and are looking at lots of options, particularly under $1 million. I actually had a buyer who was interested in Greenwich ask me how it compares to New Canaan, a very common situation, but then she asked me about Wilton and Fairfield, not towns that we usually compete against for buyers. Greenwich is doing just fine in this competition. Curiously, for all the talk of multiple bid situations, only 14 out of the 116 sales in September went for over list. With winter and the holidays coming up, now is not the best time to go with a premium list price. Save that for the spring market when you’ll have time to adjust the price if you over-price the house. We are seeing other stats that are likely to lead to increased prices. September sales were on for a median of only 96 days compared to 140 days in July. The sales price to original list price was 95% compared to 92% in July. Lastly our inventory is continuing to stay dow n, ma k ing for a competitive market. Normally, I don’t suggest listing your house in October, but I do this year and the sooner the better. The $2.5 billion question is will we make it to 800 sales this year. We’ll have no problem with 700 sales as we already have a total of 750 sales and contracts with a whole quarter to go. We’ll need about 75 sales in each of the next three months and that shouldn’t be a problem in October. But our contracts have dropped from 193 to 173 today and we have the holidays. We also have the election uncertainty, never a good thing for house sales and COVID cases are going up again in parts of NYC. We’ve still got a good shot at making it, if we get anything like the number of contracts signed in October as we saw in August and September. Stay tuned, it will be an interesting 4th quarter. Mark Pruner is a Realtor in Greenwich , CT with Berk shire Hathaway. He can be reached at 203-969-7900 or mark@bhhsne. com
ANN SIMPSON RECOGNIZED AS ONE OF AMERICA’S BEST REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS IN 2020 BY REAL TRENDS. Contact me today: (203) 940-0779 | ASimpson@bhhsne.com
51 WILLOWMERE CIRCLE, Riverside 4 Bedrooms | 4.1 Baths
At the very point of Willowmere is an impeccably maintained custom built home that features beautiful details in the cabinetry and finishes throughout and water views from every window.
$7,995,000
247 Riverside Ave, Riverside 6 BR | 7.1 BA | 9,485 SQ. FT.
$5,795,000 Built by Sound Beach Partners
35 Dawn Harbor Ln, Riverside 5 BR | 6.2 BA | 5,138 SQ. FT.
$4,400,000 Water access
5 Northway, Old Greenwich 4 BR | 3.1 BA | 4,120 SQ. FT.
$4,050,000 Private Dock & Assoc.
4 Buxton Ln, Riverside 6 BR | 6.1 BA | 5,351 SQ. FT.
$3,099,000 Close to train & schools
Old Greenwich 200 Sound Beach Avenue | bhhsNEproperties.com ©2020 An independently operated member of BHH Affiliates. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Page 3 | Greenwich Sentinel
REAL ESTATE DASHBOARD Deborah Ference-Gray
REAL ESTATE DASHBOARD MASTHEAD DASHBOARD EDITOR
Mark Pruner | Mark@GreenwichStreets.com | mark@bhhsne.com One Pickwick Plaza Greenwich, CT 06830
Office: 203.618.3155 Mobile: 917.584.4903
DASHBOARD CONTRIBUTORS
Robert Pulitano | RobertPulitano@bhhsne.com Cesar Rabillino | CesarRabellino@bhhsne.com Pam Toner | PamToner@bhhsne.com
For Market Updates and Listings Visit deborahferencegray.com
deborah.ferencegray@sothebyshomes.com
THE WEEK'S NEW SALES
Data Compiled by Cesar Rabellino (203) 249-9866
Address
Original List Price
List Price
Sold Price
Cumulative DOM # Bdrms # FBths # HBths Acres +/-
SqFt +/-
Sold Price/SqFt
SP/OLP
Section
2 Homestead Lane 210
$210,000
$199,774
$199,774
154
1
1
0
644
$310
0.95
Pemberwick
9 River Road 403
$575,000
$575,000
$535,000
77
2
2
0
0
1,125
$476
0.93
Cos Cob
50 Weaver Street
$620,000
$558,000
$539,000
175
4
2
0
0.15
1,310
$411
0.87
Pemberwick
45 Ettl Lane 206
$699,000
$699,000
$677,750
90
2
2
1
0
1,812
$374
0.97
Glenville
36 Butler Street
$825,000
$825,000
$845,000
28
4
2
1
0.17
2,006
$421
1.02
Cos Cob
414 Lyon Farm Drive 414
$995,000
$865,000
$848,000
188
3
2
1
0
2,833
$299
0.85
Pemberwick
114 Lyon Farm Drive 114
$1,350,000
$1,150,000
$1,000,000
243
4
3
1
0
2,629
$380
0.74
Glenville
3 Walnut Street
$1,050,000
$1,050,000
$1,025,000
14
3
2
0
0.26
1,922
$533
0.98
Cos Cob
1 Lyon Farm Drive 1
$1,295,000
$1,195,000
$1,100,000
98
3
2
1
0
2,074
$530
0.85
Glenville
9 Comly Avenue
$1,250,000
$1,250,000
$1,138,500
53
3
3
0
0.26
2,910
$391
0.91
Glenville
13 Meyer Place
$1,425,000
$1,339,000
$1,325,000
140
3
2
0
0.29
1,800
$736
0.93
Riverside
11 Tomahawk Lane
$1,395,000
$1,395,000
$1,350,000
239
5
3
1
1.17
4,338
$311
0.97
Cos Cob
11 Marshall Street
$1,375,000
$1,375,000
$1,375,000
25
4
2
1
0.17
2,644
$520
1
Old Greenwich
26 Bayside Terrace
$1,795,000
$1,640,000
$1,570,000
250
4
4
1
0.28
3,174
$495
0.87
Riverside
15 Edgewater Drive
$1,625,000
$1,625,000
$1,600,000
24
4
2
1
0.17
2,202
$727
0.98
Old Greenwich
200 Palmer Hill Road
$1,895,000
$1,750,000
$1,700,000
133
5
5
2
0.52
4,172
$407
0.9
Old Greenwich
16 Tod Lane
$1,795,000
$1,795,000
$1,775,000
264
6
4
1
4
4,897
$362
0.99
North Parkway
30 Sawmill Lane
$1,895,000
$1,895,000
$1,800,000
26
4
3
1
2.21
2,793
$644
0.95
South Parkway
324 Overlook Drive
$2,195,000
$2,195,000
$2,115,500
95
5
3
1
0.39
3,110
$680
0.96
South of Post Road
21 Watchtower Lane
$2,375,000
$2,375,000
$2,375,000
4
5
4
1
0.42
3,780
$628
1
North Mianus
1 Spring Road
$2,595,000
$2,595,000
$2,450,000
135
4
4
1
0.42
4,342
$564
0.94
South of Post Road
325 Taconic Road
$3,250,000
$3,250,000
$2,800,000
49
5
5
2
4.6
7,165
$391
0.86
North Parkway
55 Rockwood Lane
$3,495,000
$2,995,000
$2,866,000
130
5
4
3
1.77
7,628
$376
0.82
South Parkway
84 Meadow Road
$3,295,000
$3,295,000
$3,025,000
92
7
5
2
1.1
5,546
$545
0.92
Riverside
7 Chieftans Road
$3,395,000
$3,395,000
$3,222,500
144
4
7
2
1.76
8,594
$375
0.95
North Parkway
19 Meadow Lane
$3,450,000
$3,450,000
$3,300,000
20
5
5
1
2.63
4,732
$697
0.96
South Parkway
22 Normandy Lane
$3,595,000
$3,595,000
$3,400,000
70
5
3
1
1
4,578
$743
0.95
Riverside
53 Rock Maple Road
$3,495,000
$3,495,000
$3,675,000
51
6
6
1
2.24
6,600
$557
1.05
South Parkway
8 & 14 Fox Run Lane
$3,995,000
$3,995,000
$3,800,000
43
6
8
1
7.92
6,480
$586
0.95
South Parkway
18 Hillcrest Lane
$3,985,000
$3,985,000
$3,866,000
240
5
5
1
1.42
6,763
$572
0.97
Old Greenwich
33 Meeting House Road
$4,595,000
$4,595,000
$4,400,000
79
7
8
3
4.07
12,343
$356
0.96
North Parkway
36 French Road
$6,600,000
$6,250,000
$5,400,000
1,077
8
9
1
2.5
11,517
$469
0.82
South Parkway
4 Old Round Hill Lane
$9,995,000
$9,495,000
$8,675,000
202
7
9
2
3.15
15,916
$545
0.87
North Parkway
66 Glenwood Drive
$13,750,000
$13,750,000 $12,500,000
853
7
7
2
1.26
10,045
$1,244
0.91
South of Post Road
Featured Open House
FEATURED OPEN HOUSES
18 Circle Drive (off Indian Field Rd.)
Data Compiled by Rob Pulitano [203] 561-8092
Address
Area
12 Relay Place
Cos Cob Cos Cob Greenwich Cos Cob Greenwich Greenwich Greenwich Greenwich Riverside Riverside Old Greenwich Greenwich Greenwich Greenwich Greenwich Greenwich Greenwich Greenwich Riverside Greenwich
46 Mianus View Terrace 77 Taconic Road 18 Cat Rock Road 130 N Water Street 23 Oak Street 18 Circle Drive 160 Bedford Road 44 Stirrup Lane #44 6 Knoll Street 9 W End Avenue 84 Hunting Ridge Road 45 Circle Drive 21 Harkim Road 128 Putnam Park #128 41 Baldwin Farms North 26 Nicholas Avenue 56 Prospect Street #56 7 Gerald Court 20 Indian Field Road Open House S u n d a y 1 0 /11 1 : 0 0 P M - 3 : 0 0 P M Five Bedrooms Three Full Baths One Half Bath Two Fireplaces Two Car Garage 5,222 Sq. Ft. $2,150,000
Price
Day/Time
$899,000 Sun 1-3 PM $1,195,000 Sun 1-3 PM $1,790,000 Sun 1-4 PM $2,395,000 Sun 11-1 PM $725,000 Sun 1-3 PM $1,975,000 Sun 1-3 PM $2,150,000 Sun 1-3 PM $2,600,000 Sun 1-3 PM $850,000 Sun 1:30-3:30 PM $2,349,500 Sun 2-4 PM $1,990,000 Sun 11-1 PM $1,525,000 Sun 2-4 PM $1,695,000 Sun 1-3 PM $2,125,000 Sun 1-3 PM $675,000 Sun 1-3 PM $3,150,000 Sun 2-4 PM $638,000 Sat 1-3 PM $810,000 Sun 1-3 PM $1,195,000 Sun 1-3 PM $2,249,000 Sun 2-4 PM
Broker
Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway Coldwell Banker Coldwell Banker Coldwell Banker Coldwell Banker Coldwell Banker Coldwell Banker Douglas Elliman Douglas Elliman Houlihan Lawrence Houlihan Lawrence Sotheby's Sotheby's William Raveis William Raveis William Raveis William Raveis
**SUMMER STAND CLOSING 12 OCTOBER**
M T O H R E F F H I E S L E D R F
MESCLUN MIX
“Tender Baby Lettuces” ALSO HARVESTING
Escarole
Shiitake
Versailles Farms 56 Locust Road, Greenwich
Weekends 9am – 5pm
Pak Choi
Featured Open House 41 Baldwin Farms North
Open House S u n d a y 1 0 /11 2 : 0 0 P M - 4 : 0 0 P M Three Car Garage Six Bedrooms 4,152 Sq. Ft. Four Full Baths, One Half Bath $3,150,000 Four Fireplaces
NEW LISTINGS
Data Compiled by Cesar Rabellino (203) 249-9866 Address
List Price
Price/SqFt
SqFt
AC
BR
3 Putnam Hill Road 1J $359,000 $364 985 1 1465 Putnam Ave 127 $429,000 $470 912 0 1 351 Pemberwick Rd 824 $574,900 $493 1,166 0 2 26 Nicholas Avenue $648,000 $500 1,296 0.13 3 141 Putnam Park 141 $650,000 $534 1,218 2 51 Forest Avenue 32 $670,000 $578 1,160 1 301 River West $695,000 $384 1,812 0 2 45 Ettl Lane 201 $699,000 $298 2,348 3 130 Water Street $725,000 $591 1,226 0.3 3 7 Green Lane $725,000 $495 1,464 0.17 2 60 Ivy Street $735,000 $449 1,636 0.16 4 19 Comly Avenue $835,000 $422 1,980 0.17 4 12 Relay Place $899,000 $681 1,320 0.2 3 104 Ritch Avenue 5 $919,000 $404 2,274 3 261 Cognewaugh Road $1,125,000 $428 2,631 1.01 3 630 Steamboat Rd 2B $1,175,000 1 46 Mianus View Terr $1,195,000 $664 1,800 0.28 4 3 Florence Road $1,275,000 $516 2,472 0.2 4 23 Porchuck Road $1,295,000 $348 3,724 3.09 4 30 Hendrie Avenue $1,395,000 $485 2,877 0.36 4 19 Azalea Terrace $1,445,000 $530 2,728 1.02 5 23 Griffith Road $1,565,000 $563 2,779 0.17 4 630 Steamboat Rd 2A $1,599,000 3 10 Rockland Place $1,650,000 $768 2,148 0.12 4 80 Elm Street UNIT A $1,695,000 $533 3,183 0.18 3 25 Mac Arthur Drive $1,775,000 $522 3,400 0.17 4 71 Wildwood Drive $1,850,000 $528 3,506 0.32 4 343 Sound Beach Ave $2,195,000 $876 2,506 0.36 3 83 Howard Road $2,445,000 $441 5,547 0.5 4 40 Elm Street 5D&E $2,495,000 $863 2,890 0 3 40 Elm Street 3D $2,595,000 $898 2,890 0 3 21 Norton Lane $2,650,000 $462 5,741 1.03 6 70 Cedar Cliff Road $2,950,000 $698 4,229 0.69 5 215 Milbank Avenue E $3,200,000 $839 3,815 0 4 3 Fairfield Road $3,400,000 $598 5,690 1.63 6 71 Glenville Road $3,495,000 $707 4,945 2.5 5 21 Old Club House Rd $3,950,000 $823 4,800 0.45 4 138 Havemeyer Place $4,100,000 $763 5,377 0.16 4 267 Riverside Avenue $4,350,000 $582 7,468 0.54 6 54 Orchard Drive $4,750,000 $809 5,871 0.43 5 45 Wilshire Road $5,195,000 $525 9,887 6.83 5 21 Deer Park Drive $6,195,000 $751 8,252 2.14 6 186 Shore Road $6,250,000 $710 8,803 0.7 6 201 Clapboard Ridge Rd $7,880,000 $750 10,509 5.38 5 22 Pilot Rock Lane $15,999,000 $2,204 7,258 1.31 5 Water Restriction Greenwich Sent 5.25 x 10.5.qxp_Layout 1 8/25/20 3:16 PM
FB
Area
1 South of Post Road 1 Old Greenwich 2 Glenville 1 Pemberwick 2 South of Post Road 2 Old Greenwich 2 Glenville 3 Glenville 1 Byram 1 Pemberwick 2 Byram 2 Glenville 2 Cos Cob 2 Byram 2 Cos Cob 2 South of Post Road 2 Cos Cob 3 Riverside 3 North Parkway 3 Riverside 3 Cos Cob 3 Riverside 3 South of Post Road 4 Old Greenwich 4 South of Post Road 4 Old Greenwich 3 South of Post Rd 2 Old Greenwich 4 North Parkway 3 South of Post Rd 3 South of Post Rd 6 Old Greenwich 3 Riverside 3 South of Post Rd 3 South Parkway 6 South Parkway 4 Old Greenwich 4 South of Post Rd 5 Riverside 5 South of Post Rd 6 North Parkway 6 South Parkway 7 Old Greenwich 6 South Parkway 4 Riverside Page 2
It’s Time To Conserve
For Aquarion Customers in Darien, Greenwich, New Canaan, Stamford and Westport
WE'LL CLEAN YOUR PATIO CUSHIONS BEFORE STORING THEM THIS SEASON. A reminder to our customers in Darien, Greenwich, New Canaan, Stamford and
UPHOLSTERY I LINEN & BEDDING I WINDOW TREATMENTS I FLOORING & CARPETS I PATIO CUSHIONS
203-957-3838 I HomeCarebyFabricare.net
Westport, the use of sprinkler irrigation is limited to the twice-weekly schedule shown in the table below. This permanent, mandatory conservation program is in effect from April through October each year to ensure adequate water supplies for fire protection and other vital needs throughout the summer. Southwest Fairfield County has already hit its second drought trigger this year. We are asking for an additional reduction in water usage of 20% at this time. If you are currently not following the mandatory, twice-weekly irrigation schedule, compliance with this schedule will likely achieve the 20% reduction. If you are already following the twice-weekly schedule or don’t have an irrigation system, you can find more ways to conserve at www.aquarionwater.com/conserve. Thank you for all you are doing to use water more efficiently, outdoors and indoors. Questions? Contact Customer Service at 1-800-732-9678 or cs@aquarionwater.com.
www.aquarionwater.com/watering
A new level of commitment, and honesty in Real Estate.
Mandatory, Maximum Twice-Weekly Sprinkler Irrigation Schedule GLORIA FALCON 203.559.1604 GloriaFalcon@bhhsne.com
CESAR RABELLINO 203.249.9866 CesarRabellino@bhhsne.com
Greenwich 136 East Putnam Avenue | bhhsNEproperties.com ©2020 An independently operated member of BHH Affiliates. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Last Digit of Your Address Number Please Water Only On: 0, 2, 4, 6 or 8 (even numbers) Sunday & Wednesday 12:01 am – 10:00 am, or 6:00 pm – Midnight 1, 3, 5, 7 or 9 (odd numbers)
Saturday & Tuesday
No address number
Sunday & Wednesday 12:01 am – 10:00 am, or 6:00 pm – Midnight
© 2020 Aquarion Water Company
12:01 am – 10:00 am, or 6:00 pm – Midnight