Systems Engineering and its Future - Engineering Complex Systems

“It’s ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” The famous quote from the American writer Mark Twain is quite fitting and often used in lectures on the topic of Systems Engineering. As its practitioners will call it, SE aims not only to apply concepts and techniques to design, build, and test the best possible system for its intended purpose, but also to identify and mitigate unexpected behaviors.

What is a system? In the broadest sense, a system can be anything. A vehicle, a wheel, a pen, an iron nail, a living organism, nature itself. However, in SE, defining contexts is one of the first steps taken to define a problem and conceptualize its solution, therefore, for practicality, the same is valid for the definition of systems itself. In the context of engineered systems, a system is an integrated set of elements (software, hardware, users), information, people, processes, and services working together and interacting with its environment to achieve a set of intended goals.

SE arose in the 1930s with the recognition that the complexity of systems had increased to a point where it was no longer possible to design them from a purely reductionist approach. The realization first came within industries developing defense systems. With a growing number of system elements and interactions between them, these systems came alive, demonstrating properties that could no longer be directly correlated with the sum of their parts. The systems were showing emergent behaviors that could not be understood simply by understanding its comprising elements.

Some emergent behaviors are authentic purposes of a system and are intentionally designed for. An example is the management of the headway in rail signaling systems. In general, these systems aim to maintain trains minimally and uniformly spaced along the track to increase throughput and arrival predictability. This behavior can only be achieved by close interaction of several parts: supervision systems that manage departure/arrival times, onboard systems that control train acceleration and braking to match the intended times (in the case of manually controlled trains, this is achieved by the driver), communication systems to relay messages back and forth, and others. Looking at the system’s architecture and functions implemented by each piece of software and hardware, nowhere can headway management be seen.

In living organisms, another example is intelligence that arises from highly complex interactions of neurons in the brain. Intelligence can only be seen from a “system” (organism) perspective.

Other emergent behaviors are undesired consequences of a complex system design and if they escape the systems engineer’s analysis, they can manifest themselves as loss of mission, property damage and loss of life. Even when all system elements continue to perform as intended, the combination of their actions and/or changes to the environment can lead to undesired outcomes. An example is the crash of the Mars Polar Lander in 1999. The system specification instructed the software developers to cut off the descent engines if any of the legs detected touchdown. During descent, vibrations and signal noise provided a false positive touchdown input from one of the legs to the software, which correctly turned off the landing engine. In fact, the spacecraft was still 40 meters above the surface. In this case, no components failed, but interactions between the environment and the lander were not all accounted for.

Emergence phenomena and complexity are intrinsically connected and managing them is at the core of what SE does. It aims to accomplish this by deploying a set of technical and management processes as well as practices collectively known as Systems Thinking, which is the approach taken by a systems engineer to look at systems holistically, focusing on its mission goals, interactions with the environments (including its users) and interactions among its own components. A systems engineer needs to consider how the system elements and the environment can change over time, recognize that complexity leads to non-linear cause and effect and intricate loops are involved, and study long-term consequence of changes and user actions (intended and non-intended).

The systems engineer also needs to look past functionality and performance, reaching out to stakeholders beyond the end users for collecting requirements. These can be regarding affordability, environmental constraints, interoperability with other existing or future systems, logistics, producibility

(how easily the system can be manufactured), mass properties (how much it should weight and how that weight must be distributed), reliability, maintainability, resilience, safety, security, training needs and usability. A narrow focus only on functional requirements and the system’s nominal operation, neglecting all stages and aspects of the life cycle will most likely lead to unforeseen emergent behaviors.

Many studies across industries show with very definitive evidence that the cost to make changes to a system can rise hundreds of times from concept to production stages. This is because most of the project cost is already committed by the end of the concept stage. Early decisions have a larger impact to the system’s definition and design. Hence, SE brings special value by offering practices to assist enterprises with decision making that will avoid late costly changes.

Rising cost of changes later in the life cycle. For illustration purposes only. Not to scale.

Education in Systems Engineering and Resources for Information

There is a significant chance that long-term SE practitioners acquired most of their knowledge on the job, initially getting involved with design and development of certain system parts, focusing on specific engineering domains, such as civil or mechanical engineering, and over time acquiring information about the entire system and learning about the enterprise’s SE processes and tools.

As system complexity rapidly increased, the need for a more structured approach became apparent, with more professionals seeking formal education on the subject.

Normally, students are still expected to acquire experience in more traditional engineering disciplines

(electrical, mechanical, software, optical, etc.) before engaging in interdisciplinary affairs required by holistic system analysis. But this mindset is changing. Graduate courses are commonly found across the country and the number of undergraduate courses is growing.

International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE)

Those interested in gaining access to state-of-the-art information on SE, getting involved in the discussions, meeting the people advancing the discipline and joining the effort to advance SE, will benefit by becoming an INCOSE member.

INCOSE (https://www.incose.org) is a not-for-profit membership organization founded to develop and disseminate the interdisciplinary principles and practices that enable the realization of successful systems. INCOSE is designed to connect SE professionals with educational, networking, and career-advancement opportunities in the interest of developing the global community of systems engineers and systems approaches to problems. Founded in the 1990s, initially as the National Council of Systems Engineering (NCOSE) it was later renamed in 1995, with growing involvement of the international community.

With over 19,000 members and more than 65 chapters in over 77 countries around the globe, INCOSE is the standard for the advancement of systems engineering. Members drive the discipline forward, developing state-ofthe-art solutions and products for their customers. INCOSE offers:

• Annual International Symposium (IS), International Workshop (IW), and regional conferences

• A Professional Development Portal (PDP)

• The Technical Leadership Institute (TLI); a free, 2-yr program for accepted members.

• Over 50 working groups that create products, present panels, develop and review standards. Each working group is either a Transformational, Analytic, or Process Enabler. The current working groups are:

Agile Systems and Systems Engineering

Architecture

Artificial Intelligence Systems

Automotive

Competency

Complex Systems

Configuration Management

Critical Infrastructure Protection and Recovery

Decision Analysis

Defense Systems

Digital Engineering Information Exchange

Empowering Women Leaders in SE (EWLSE)

Enterprise Systems

Healthcare

Human Systems Integration

Information Communications Technology

Infrastructure

Integration, Verification & Validation

Knowledge Management

PM-SE Integration

Power & Energy Systems

Process Improvement

Product Line Engineering

Professional Competencies & Soft Skills

Professional Development Initiative

Requirements

Resilient Systems

Risk Management

SE in Early-Stage Research & Development

SE Tools Database

Small Business Systems Engineering

Smart Cities Initiative

Social Systems

Space Systems

System of Systems

System Safety

Systems and Software Interface

Systems Engineering and Lawmaking

Lean Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Quality Management (SEQM)

MBSE Initiative

MBSE Patterns

Measurement

Systems Science

Systems Security Engineering

Tools Integration & Model Lifecycle Management

NAFEMS-INCOSE Systems Modeling & Simulation Training

Natural Systems Transportation

Object-Oriented Systems Engineering Method (OOSEM)

• A new member engagement team

• Monthly webinars

• The INCOSE Corporate Advisory Board (CAB), which is the Voice of the Customer to the INCOSE leadership. The CAB provides strategic guidance to technical leadership, leading to the development of systems engineering products and input to standards to meet their needs. There are over 120 CAB members.

• Student Divisions, where a Student Division is comprised of a group of undergraduate or graduate students who wish to become actively involved in INCOSE while enrolled in an accredited course of study at a college or university. Student Divisions are operated as a component of a nearby chartered INCOSE chapter.

• Systems Engineering Professional (SEP) Certifications, offering Associate SEP (ASEP), Certified SEP (CSEP), and Expert SEP (ESEP) certifications.

• A maintained directory of worldwide academic programs from accredited institutions on their website (https://www.incose.org/academic-affairs-and-careers/se-education).

• SE Body of Knowledge (SEBoK) (https://www.sebokwiki.org)

• Technical Publications: SE Journal and Insight Magazine

• The INCOSE Store, for purchasing and ordering INCOSE products such as: o Guides to Needs and Requirements o Letters to My Younger Self: How Systems Engineering Changed My Life o Systems Engineering Handbook o Systems Engineering Principles

• INCOSE Foundation: Committed to rewarding skills through scholarships for those engaged in finding solutions to complex technical challenges at all stages of their education or career.

• INCOSE awards to members who achieved outstanding accomplishments. There are both individual and team awards.

Finger Lakes Chapter (FLC)

INCOSE’s Finger Lakes Chapter (FLC) has existed for over 20 years. The chapter covers the western part of New York state, from Rome to Buffalo. Groups of members are in Rochester, Syracuse, Ithaca, and Buffalo; some members are in various states. Currently the chapter has about 100 members (regular, senior and student). FLC has a student division at Cornell University in Ithaca, NY. FLC is also an affiliate member of the Rochester Engineering Society.

Chapter members can participate in any of the INCOSE activities mentioned in the INCOSE section. FLC has ASEP, CSEP, and ESEP certified members, and members participating in working groups, IW, and IS. FLC also has members who have been, or currently are, involved in INCOSE’s TLI. Also, FLC hosted the 2005 IS in Rochester, NY.

FLC is run by a Board of Directors that meets monthly. Elections are every three years. FLC has a LinkedIn group and a chapter site on https://www.incose.org. FLC has regular chapter meetings each month from January to June and from October to December. There are no activities in July. Occasionally a social event (such as a picnic) is held in August, and the annual meeting is in September. The regular chapter meetings are open to all at no cost. Meetings are in hybrid format (in person or remotely via Zoom), with current venues in Rochester and Ithaca.

Between 2000 and 2021, FLC has won 17 INCOSE chapter circle awards: 6 bronze, 8 silver, and 3 gold. Through the annual chapter awards program, INCOSE recognizes the valuable contributions of individual INCOSE chapters as they strive to enrich, educate, and enlighten the INCOSE membership while improving recognition of INCOSE and the systems engineering profession.

In January 2022, INCOSE launched its vision for the practice in 2035. The intent is to inspire the community and guide the advancements in the field in the next decade.

The complete document is available online at https://www.incose.org/about-systems-engineering/se-vision-2035. It discusses many trends and aspects driving the evolution of SE. A few are covered below. Reading the full vision is highly encouraged for practitioners and enthusiasts alike.

Human Needs and Sustainability

The development goals established by the United Nations call for reduced inequalities and access to food, healthcare and education to all, while at the same time promoting environmental sustainability. Growing population, urbanization and longer lifespans will increase the demands for connectiveness and consumption of goods and information. Addressing these needs and managing resulting stresses in biodiversity and natural resources will undoubtedly call for ever more sophisticated systems that will need to be engineered for sustainability.

Increasing System Complexity

Demand for more information, capability and efficiency are continuously pushing the level of complexity, even in systems that until recently were considered “simple”. As an example: the old reliable refrigerator. Modern units have embedded computers with full operating systems, user interface and Internet connection. Adding just one feature, such as allowing the user to go online, leads to a cascading effect of other requirements related to software updates, retro compatibility, cyber security and resistance to water and humidity for electronic parts. And since there is a computer in it, why not have that computer run diagnostics and inform the user of any needed maintenance? This in turn, leads to more components, more interfaces between them, more emergent behaviors, failure modes and vulnerabilities.

Demand for sustainability will give rise to circular economies. Figure obtained from the INCOSE SE Vision 2035.

Scaled to truly large systems interacting with each other to fulfill unforeseen user needs in constantly changing environments gives a sense of the magnitude of the challenge ahead. The systems engineer should not shy away from it, but strengthen the usage of systems thinking and keep up with enabling tools and technologies.

SE Practices

Current state (2022) of SE practices. By 2035, emerging practices should become standard ones. Figure obtained from the INCOSE SE Vision 2035.

Currently, the usage of artificial intelligence (AI) components in a system is a problem for SE because the non-deterministic nature of AI conflicts with the intention of verification and validation (V&V) teams to provide evidence that a system is built correctly and fit for its purpose.

By 2035, AI components will be commonplace, not only performing tasks on their own but exchanging information and learning with other systems. The problem of producing objective evidence by verification teams will need to be addressed between the SE, software, and data science communities. Perhaps the answer is automation and deployment of other AI systems for auto verification.

Another big trend is the shift from managing information in documents to a model-based approach. MBSE (Model-Based Systems Engineering) is already adopted by a growing number of organizations, most commonly in the aerospace and defense industries and its usage will become more widespread across other industries.

MBSE allows for a more objective description of the system, reducing the risk of misunderstandings by teams implementing the individual components and increasing transparency for teams performing analysis, such as V&V and safety assessment teams. Well written models can be “played” through when given a set of inputs.

MBSE should be predominant in SE by 2035, in fact they should be synonyms. Models will be interconnected for reusability and exchange of information creating a collaborative virtual environment for visual exploration of the system. Tools will bring more sophisticated AI features to provide insights to the systems engineer and run automatic checks. V&V and safety analysis efforts will be shifted to take place mostly inside the models, identifying issues as early as possible in the life cycle.

The SE discipline is almost a century old, but more fitting than ever for the current days. With complexity soaring, systems are no longer composed of simple structure of elements with fixed interfaces and predefined order for information to be passed back and forth. Systems are ever more commonly organized with interconnected elements point to point forming a mesh network of interactions that transcends any attempts at reductionist forms of analysis. The same is true for an individual system and its elements or for larger systems whose elements are other complex systems.

SE is a career in high demand with insufficient supply of professionals. The hands on the clocks of system complexity cannot be reversed. To get involved, the resources mentioned in this article are a great start. Locally, the INCOSE Finger Lakes Chapter can help!

The INCOSE SE Vision 2035 product was prepared by the Systems Engineering Vision 2035 Project Team of the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE). It is approved by the INCOSE Technical Operations for release as an INCOSE Technical Product.

Copyright ©2014 by INCOSE, subject to the following restrictions:

INCOSE use: Permission to reproduce the INCOSE SE Vision 2035 document and to prepare derivative works from this document or INCOSE use is granted provided this copyright notice is included with all reproductions and derivative works.

External Use: The INCOSE SE Vision 2035 document may be shared or distributed to non-INCOSE third parties. Requests for permission to reproduce the INCOSE SE Vision 2035 document in whole are granted provided it is not altered in any way. Extracts for use in other works are permitted provided this copyright notice and INCOSE attribution are included with all reproductions; and, all uses including derivative works and commercial use, acquire additional permission for use of images unless indicated as a public image in the General Domain. Requests for permission to prepare derivative works of this document or any for commercial use will be denied unless covered by other formal agreements with INCOSE. Contact INCOSE Administration Office, 7670 Opportunity Rd., Suite 220, San Diego, CA 92111-2222, USA.

Leandro has worked for Alstom for 17 years in the rail signaling industry and has exercised multiple roles during his period, from software engineering, systems engineering and management of product development. Currently, Leandro is responsible for the V&V of Alstom’s North America products.

He has been in the board of directors of the Rochester Engineering Society since June 2022 and an INCOSE and INCOSE FLC member since 2021. Leandro is undergoing the INCOSE Technical Leadership Program.

Teresa Froncek retired from L3Harris Technologies, Space and Airborne Systems, where her roles/responsibilities included being SE Lead, SE functional manager, Project Manager, and Chief Engineer. She has a bachelor’s degree in Chemistry from Bradley University and a master’s degree in Physics from the University of Missouri –Kansas City. She is a member of Sigma Pi Sigma.

Teresa has been on the FLC board of directors about 10 years, recently completing a 3-yr term as President. Currently, she is Treasurer and Past President.