12 minute read
A Total Solar Eclipse is a Once-in-a-Lifetime Experience Worth Traveling For
On Monday, April 8, 2024, the Rochester area will be in the path of totality of the Great North American Solar Eclipse. At 3:20pm, those within a 100-mile band between the middle of Lake Ontario to south of Rochester will plunge into darkness as the Moon fully covers the Sun for 3 minutes and 38 seconds. As the state’s easternmost, largest city in the path with many events and celebrations being planned, Rochester is expecting at least 500,000 visitors to travel from the East Coast to witness the eclipse.
The last major eclipse in the U.S. happened on August 21, 2017; in that case, the path of totality stretched from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast. However, the next total eclipse to touch the continental U.S. will not happen until 2045. Both the stories of personal interest and travel nightmares from 2017 are influencing what will happen in 2024. While more people are going to travel to the path, more preparations in attempt to ease traffic congestion are underway.
Solar eclipses occur when the Moon passes between the Earth and the Sun, casting a narrow shadow on the Earth's surface. During a total solar eclipse, the Moon completely blocks the Sun, creating a rare display of darkness during the daytime hours. The air temperature drops, animals behave as if the 360-degree sunset is a sign of nightfall.
Many find the effort and expense of traveling to observe the fleeting event, lasting only a few minutes at any given location, to be worthwhile. It offers a once-in-a-lifetime experience that can be profoundly moving and unforgettable.
Domestic and international travelers are booking trips to North American destinations within the path of totality. Passionate eclipse chasers will seek a spot closest to the center of the path gaining a few more seconds of darkness than the outer limits. Out-of-town guests are claiming spare bedrooms, couches and places to park RVs, campers, or pitch tents.
According to data analyst and map generator Michael Zeiler of greatamericaneclipse.com, the Moon’s shadow first touches Mexico. Then it travels northeast through Mexico and enters the United States at Texas, cuts a diagonal all the way across the country to Maine, and then visits the maritime provinces of Canada. Zeiler noted the major cities inside the path are Mazatlan, Torreon, San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Indianapolis, Cleveland, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Montreal.
Locally, the path will pass over 27 counties in New York state including the cities of Jamestown, Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Rochester, Canandaigua, Watertown, and the northern Adirondack region including Plattsburgh and Lake Placid.
Depending on one’s location within the path of totality, in the greater Rochester area, the thrill will commence at about 2:07 p.m. when the Moon appears to make first contact with the Sun. At about 3:20 p.m. the Moon will fully cover the disc of the Sun for roughly 3 minutes and 38 seconds. The Moon’s last contact will happen at 4:33 p.m. Skywatchers in areas outside the path of totality will see a partial eclipse (88 –99% coverage) and will surely notice an increase in traffic, especially after it ends.
Crowds and Traffic
April 8 falls on a Monday after a popular break week. Using data from August 2017, the last time a total solar eclipse was visible from the United States as a model, local communities in the Genesee/Finger Lakes Region should expect huge crowds traveling from the east and south in the one to four days prior to the eclipse.
Reports from 2017 show most people traveled by motor vehicle, whether personal passenger cars, tow-behind trailers or motorhomes, and tour buses. Not to underestimate the significant number of people who traveled by air, via commercial or private planes, or by rail but automobiles will have the greatest impact. Most visitors departed within two hours post-totality. Heavy traffic congestion will happen on all roads, not just major highways, and interstates. The exodus will be more significant than the arrivals.
It’s tough to know how exactly many visitors might be planning to drive to New York State, or even to the Rochester area, to watch the eclipse but by looking at population data, some conservative assumptions and significant considerations, minimum estimates can be formulated.
• According to the U.S. 2020 Census, 3.7 million people reside inside the path across New York State.
• The population inside the path in the greater Rochester area is 1.1 million.
• Assuming 2% of the population would be willing to drive at least 200 miles to travel to locations within the path in New York State, roadways would see volumes of 515,000 people.
• Consider that major cities on the eastern seaboard, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C., are outside the path, but within 400 miles. One could easily argue that it is a reasonable driving distance, especially for a once-in-a-lifetime spectacle.
• Consider more than 2% of the population within 200 miles decides to make the trip.
• Consider the range of a reasonable travel distance is greater than 200, perhaps 300 or 400 miles.
• Consider the international travelers are not included in the population.
• Rochester is the largest, eastern-most metropolitan area in the eclipse’s path with science museum and planetarium.
• Rochester Eclipse Task Force is a leader in planning for and promoting the area as a premier destination.
• Planners can reference cities of similar size and traffic volumes who were in the path in 2017 and experienced the surge of visitors, such as Columbia, South Carolina.
Preparing for the Single-Biggest Mass Travel Event in the USA.
School Closures
Traffic volumes are lowest when school is out of session. Combined with the timing of the eclipse happening during school dismissal it makes sense for schools to consider closing for the day. Arguably, more importantly from an education standpoint, modifying the school calendar eliminates the risk that students would be stuck in traffic on a school bus, missing this epic event. Most schools, including higher education, in the greater Rochester region decided to pivot from in-person learning that day with a few exceptions of half days.
RMSC Community Eclipse Ambassador Program
The RMSC created a program to prepare and excite the community for the incredible shared experience of the Total Solar Eclipse. Not only does this boost science education, but it also helps disperse viewing venues. Ambassadors are being trained in eclipse education, basic astronomy, and eclipse viewing safety for their organizations. Ambassadors across the nine-county region will be outfitted with equipment including a telescope with a solar viewing filter, educational materials, solar viewing glasses, and materials for activities.
Mapping
Unlike other planned special events with a single venue, the eclipse stage will be visible from hundreds of square miles of land. It's unlikely one map will produce a comprehensive list of viewing locations, but from a transportationplanning perspective, any hints, or clues where the 1.1 million residents, plus the hundreds of thousands of visitors might be flocking towards will be helpful. The types of viewing occasions will vary from private experiences to full festivals and special events to block parties to backyard gatherings. The RMSC has created a digital, master event calendar to help publicize viewing events, but also to feed crowd gathering patterns to emergency preparedness planners. Visit the event calendar at https://rochestereclipse2024.org/events/
Arrive Early and Stay Late and Take Tuesday Too Campaigns
It is expected that visitors will trickle into the region over the weekend so there is less concern about a surge of arrivals. The greater concern is the mass exodus in the hours following the eclipse on Monday evening. Not everybody will have the luxury to extend their stay, but if travelers would consider staying put overnight and taking Tuesday, too, traffic may be staggered enough to make a difference. The Rochester Eclipse Task Force produced a fun 30-second public service announcement to promote the message
Transportation Research
GTC first learned about the significant travel impacts associated with eclipse chasing and that Rochester and much of our region would be in the path of totality in January 2018 while attending the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C.
The National Operations Center of Excellence has hosted webinars featuring stories from several public agency officials from state DOTs, National Park Service, law enforcement, meteorologists, and others in such states as Illinois, Kentucky, and Wyoming. A common sentiment from each speaker was one of regret, they wished they had started planning earlier. The influx of visitors was unbelievable.
In Fall 2018 – A captivating cover story was published in the September/October 2018 issue of TR News, headlined “Total Solar Eclipse on August 21, 2017.” It was the subhead in italics that generated pause, “Special Event with Coast-toCoast Traffic Congestion.”
Find links to these references and other resources on GTC’s Community Engagement Hub.
Author Jonathan Upchurch,a transportation engineering consultant in Utah and Professor Emeritus at Arizona State University, Tempe, shared mind-blowing traffic statistics with charts depicting hourly traffic volumes recorded immediately following the 2017 eclipse, travel-related anecdotes, and lessons learned.
“In the hours immediately following totality, almost every Intestate route passing through the path of totality showed red on Google Traffic maps."
“At 5 million participants, it was likely the largest special event in U.S. history. For comparison, 5 million people leaving the path of totality at once is like 71 sellout football games ending at the same time.”
The article concluded with some wisdom and advice for transportation planners looking ahead to 2024:
“In 2024, stronger efforts to urge viewers to stay put and stay late can help deter the extreme post-eclipse peaking that occurred in 2017."
Raising Stakeholder Awareness Early and Often
As a transportation planning agency, GTC recognized the importance of sharing this information with key stakeholders; those who own, operate, and maintain transportation systems and coordinate emergency preparedness and public safety.
In April 2019, GTC partnered with RMSC and Visit Rochester to host a two-day workshop with a renowned eclipse expert, Janet Ivey of JanetsPlanet, from Nashville, TN. She shared how this topic will have widespread interest and emphasized the limitless opportunities to consider, along with the logistical planning that would be needed to ensure a safe viewing experience for visitors and those that call our region home.
The invitation list included transportation representatives from state, county, city, town and village highway departments, law enforcement, transit providers, public and private airports, and others.
Since then, as part of the Rochester Eclipse Task Force, the Transportation Sector has been coordinating with local experts in the Science Education/Outreach and Tourism Sectors. It is a luxury to be part of brainstorming sessions and planning meetings across community sectors and will be carried into the future.
The Genesee Transportation Council (GTC) formalized its role to ensure transportation and other public safety agencies are well-informed, prepared, and ready to execute thorough plans to safely operate and maintain the transportation system in the days leading up to, during, and following the Total Solar Eclipse on April 8, 2024.
Even though transportation planners immediately embraced the challenge and the opportunity to collaborate with other community sectors in tourism, science education and others, many colleagues struggled to grasp the connection in their minds.
Local officials respond to snowstorms and other natural incidents with grace. Public safety teams make planning for, and handling planned special events such as athletic contests, music festivals and airshows that attract big crowds look effortless. Somebody, or some entity, is in charge.
But this is a hybrid of the two. It is a planned occurrence, yet it is a natural phenomenon with much uncertainty. No one person or agency oversees the solar system. It has a broad, general location, not a single venue. Planners can only guess where people would travel from and when they might arrive, where they will stay and for how long.
Without fail our message was greeted with slanted heads and squinted foreheads from skeptics trying to make sense. The thought bubble floating above their heads read, “What does transportation planning and emergency preparedness have to do with a total solar eclipse?”
Theoretically, nothing. Sunlight will be blocked casting a dark shadow for a few minutes in the middle of a spring Monday afternoon. It’s true the Sun goes down every night, creating darkness, even when it is cloudy, or raining, or snowing.
Or, technically, everything. Hundreds of thousands of people from around the world are planning how to get themselves inside the path of totality whether by car, plane, rail, boat, tour bus, RV, bicycle, foot, or some combination thereof. Nobody would have to think twice or prepare at all if the experience of totality wasn’t one of profound wonder and awe and one worth traveling for, and home again.
Learn more at www.rochestereclipse2024.org, www.publicinput.com/GTCEclipse and follow on social media: @ROCSolarEclipse. q
Overview of GTC
The Genesee Transportation Council , or GTC, is the Metropolitan Planning Organization or MPO for the nine-county Genesee-Finger Lakes Region serving Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Orleans, Seneca, Wayne, Wyoming, and Yates counties. GTC is responsible for federally funded transportation policy, planning, and investment decision making as it concerns the movement of people and goods on the surface transportation system. Federal transportation legislation guides the planning process at the MPO.
MPOs are responsible for three major work products including the Long Range Transportation Plan or LRTP, the Unified Planning Work Program or UPWP, and the Transportation Improvement Program or TIP. The LRTP sets the strategic direction for all GTC’s actions and programs and is updated at least every five years. The policies in the LRTP are further refined in the UPWP through individual concept-level projects and programs. The UPWP serves as GTC’s annual operating plan and budget. The TIP is the capital program that funds the specific transportation improvements in the region that will receive federal funding over the next four-to-five years.
GTC is governed by a policy board, made up of elected representatives from local, state, and federal governments along with transportation agencies such as New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT), the Rochester Genesee Regional Transportation Authority (RGRTA), the Genesee-Finger Lakes Regional Planning Council (G/FLRPC), and other agencies. As a policy making agency, GTC does not own or operate transportation facilities. Learn more about GTC and the MPO-planning process.
