TRANSFORM STL:
Tackling Racial And Neighborhood Shifts, Facilitating, Opportunities For Revitalization in St. Louis City Ness Sándoval
Professor of Demography and Sociology Saint Louis University December 19, 2023
Five Points 1.
Demographic Changes are Inevitable
2.
Families with Children are in Decline
3.
Saint Louis: A City of Four Distinct Regions
4.
Small losses can spark significant transformations
5.
TRANSFORM STL Source of Image: https://www.stltoday.com
The fundamental principle of Demography is that demographic transitions are an inevitable aspect of change, persisting irrespective of whether individuals recognize, acknowledge, or accept the underlying demographic realities and trends
METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Data • U.S. Census Bureau
– Decennial Census – American Community Survey • 1 Year and 5 Year Estimates
– Population Estimates
• National Center for Health Statistics • Crime Data for 2015-2019- St. Louis Police Department
1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE INEVITABLE
Population Trends for Saint Louis City Population 900,000
Total 856,796
821,960
800,000
816,048
White
772,897
750,026
687,029
700,000
Black 622,236
POPULATION
600,000
575,238
500,000
453,085
451,770
396,685
400,000
351,189
350,518
348,189 319,294
301,578
300,000 190,524
200,000 104,978
100,000 14,125
0
1830
35,979
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880*
1890
1900
1910
1920 1930 1940 CENSUS YEAR
Source: U.S. Census Decennial Data, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Population Trends for Saint Louis City Population
White
120%
Black 100%
97% 93%
92%
94%
94%
94%
94%
91%
89%
85%
80%
87% 82%
79%
POPULATION
71%
59%
60%
53%
50%
51% 43%
40%
45%
47%
49% 42%
43% 43%
41%
29%
20%
21% 11%
15%
0%
7%
1830
1840
1850
3%
1860
8%
6%
6%
6%
6%
1870
1880*
1890
1900
1910
13%
18%
9%
1920 1930 1940 CENSUS YEAR
Source: U.S. Census Decennial Data, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE INEVITABLE
1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE INEVITABLE
Population Trends for Saint Louis City Foreign-born Population 140,000
Foreign-born
25%
Percent Foreign-born
20%
125,706
120,000
111,356 19% 18%
100,000
POPULATION
103,239
80,935
15%
80,000 13%
59,406
60,000
10%
10% 41,819
40,000
7%
7%
5%
20,000
19,543 4%
15,337 2%
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
6%
6%
26,479
1960 1970 CENSUS YEAR
Source: U.S. Census Decennial Data, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
11,878
3%
1980
5%
23,011 17,611
10,034 3%
1990
2000
2010
2022
0%
1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS IN SAINT LOUIS CITY
Saint Louis MSA and Counties 2022 Population
Population Change
Births (2022)
Deaths (2022)
Natural Population Change (2022)
International Migration (2022)
St. Charles County
413803
3292
4139
3791
348
724
2439
3163
Missouri
Lincoln County
63155
1501
773
596
177
-4
1280
1276
Missouri
Jefferson County
229336
1402
2399
2537
-138
59
1550
1609
Missouri
Warren County
37260
731
402
433
-31
0
742
742
Missouri
Franklin County
105879
551
1108
1338
-230
21
785
806
Illinois
Monroe County
35033
40
285
376
-91
6
147
153
Illinois
Clinton County
36909
23
383
401
-18
39
21
60
Illinois
Calhoun County
4360
-25
47
69
-22
0
-1
-1
Illinois
Bond County
16566
-67
144
197
-53
9
-15
-6
Illinois
Jersey County
21246
-124
205
322
-117
8
-7
1
Illinois
Macoupin County
44245
-300
429
640
-211
13
-89
-76
Illinois
Madison County
263864
-1034
2555
3233
-678
86
-329
-243
Illinois
St. Clair County
State
County
Missouri
Domestic Migration (2022) Net Migration (2022)
252671
-2351
2849
3023
-174
134
-2303
-2169
Missouri St. Louis city
286578
-6984
3752
3596
156
1168
-8419
-7251
Missouri
990414
-7813
10526
12158
-1632
2688
-8894
-6206
2801319
-11158
29996
32710
-2714
4951
-13093
-8142
St. Louis County
Saint Louis MSA
Source: Annual and Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for Counties in the United States: April 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
19
1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS IN SAINT LOUIS CITY
Change in Household Type for Saint Louis City (2019-2022) 5,000
4,248
4,000
Black
4,293
White Non-Hispanic
3,000
Households
2,000
2,045 692
1,000
220
125
19
0 -393
-1,000 -2,000
-4,000 -5,000
-1,810
-2,203
-3,000
-168
-472
-45 -597 -1,642
-3,658
Total:
Family Households:
Married-Couple Family
Other Family:
Male Female Householder, No Householder, No Spouse Present Spouse Present Household Type
-3,878
-3,897
Nonfamily Households:
Householder Living Alone
Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
Householder Not Living Alone
Change in Household Type by Relatives and Non-relatives for Saint Louis City (2019-2022) 5,000 Black
753
100 29
0
-1,170-1,276
-5,000
-4,496
Population
-5,633
-10,000
3,143
White Non-Hispanic
-734 -985
-37
-436 -291
-4,525
-4,534
-5,733
-6,283
-4,682
-5,287 -6,246
-8,912 -11,337 -12,055
-15,000 -16,019
-20,000
Total:
In Family Households:
In MarriedCouple Family:
Relatives
Nonrelatives
Relatives In Male Householder, No Spouse Present, Family: Household Type
Nonrelatives
In Female Householder, No Spouse Present, Family:
Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
Relatives
Nonrelatives
In Nonfamily Households
2. FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN ARE IN DECLINE
There is a Significant Decline in Families with Children in Saint Louis City
Black Families with Children under 18 by Poverty Status (2019-2022)
Change in Families with Children Under 18
1,000 0
-1,000
266
Above Poverty
Below Poverty
35 -214
-515 -1,546
-946
-2,336
-2,000 -4,828
-3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000
Families
Males
Females
Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
Total
White Families with Children under 18 by Poverty Status (2019-2022) 800
Above Poverty
Below Poverty
Change in Families with Children Under
600 400
639
570
200 0 -200
79 -455
-239 -317 -148
-400
-1,011
-600 -800 -1,000 -1,200
Families
Males
Females
Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
Total
Total Families with Children under 18 by Poverty Status (2019-2022) 500
Change in Families with Children Under
0 -500
45 -1,222
Above Poverty
69 -758
-872 -186
-1,000
Below Poverty
-2,125
-1,500 -2,000 -2,500
-3,533
-3,000 -3,500 -4,000 -4,500 -5,000
Families
Males
Females
Source: U.S. Census One Year ACS Data 2019 and 2022. Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
Total
1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS IN SAINT LOUIS CITY
Ratio of Income to Poverty Level of Families 50,000
2010
46,881
2022
45,000
Number of Families
40,000
38,431
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
6,093
6,551 3,589
Under .50
3,876
2,339
3,430 2,487
.50 to .74
.75 to .99
5,128
1.00 to 1.49
Source: U.S. Census 2010 2022, 1 Year ACS, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
6,709 3,655
1.50 to 1.99
2.00 and Over
3. SAINT LOUIS: A CITY OF FOUR DISTINCT REGIONS
https://www.stlmag.com/news/politics/how-one-slu-professor-is-rethinking-blighted-zip-codes/
Saint Louis City
Average Poverty Rate of Tracts 35% 30%
Average Poverty Rate
30%
24%
25% 20%
19%
15%
12%
10% 5% 0%
Unknown
Negative Momentum Stable Momentum Spatial Regime
Source: U.S. Census 2021 5 Year ACS Estimates, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
Positive Momentum
Saint Louis City
Five Year Average Homicide Rate of Tracts 12 10
Homicide Rate Per 1,000
10 8 6 4 2
2
2 1
0
Unknown
Negative Momentum Stable Momentum Spatial Regime
Source: St Louis Police Data 2015-2019, Chart Created by J.S. Onésimo Sándoval, Computational Spatial Demography Lab, Saint Louis University
Positive Momentum
4. SMALL LOSSES CAN SPARK SIGNIFICANT TRANSFORMATIONS
Total Population Change from 2010 to 2021
Black Population Change from 2010 to 2021
White Population Change from 2010 to 2021
Black and White Majority Census Tracts in Saint Louis City
5. TRANSFORM STL
TRANSFORM STL • School Choice – SLPS & Charter vs. Suburbs • Understand Migration – People move in and out • Urban Contested Space – Crime is down, but Neighborhood Crime?
Source of the Image: Justin Barr STLFromAbove
DECLINE IN FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN
What happens if there is a sustained decline in families within census tracts that have a history of population loss? •
4k Potential Families in poverty?
•
17k Potential Families?
24k New Residents Moved into Saint Louis City
13k (54%) New Residents Moved into these Census Tracts
5k New Residents Moved into these Census Tracts From Another State
UNDERSTAND MIGRATION
New residents made the city their home
Residents left the city to find a new home
URBAN CONTESTED SPACES
CHANNGE: Crime, Housing, Affordability, and Nurturing Neighborhood Growth through Education
• Exploring the interconnection of micro-level crime patterns, unsafe contested spaces, affordable housing, and school options unveils a profound influence on migration and demographic trends in Saint Louis City.
Ness Sándoval ness.sandoval@slu.edu
Appendix A
1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS IN SAINT LOUIS CITY
COMPARING WITH PEER CITIES: IT'S CONTEXTDEPENDENT