multi-year highs. This is also contributing to the lack of distressed pricing in emerging market credit, a sector whose revenues tend to be very commoditylinked. In the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Diversified Corporate Index, 49 percent of the index is energy and basic industry. Another factor pulling investor attention is that improving fundamentals are supporting a sanguine credit outlook for U.S. companies. As noted in the previous high-yield report, there is abundant liquidity on corporate balance sheets with cash and equivalents representing several quarters of liquidity runway. Leverage ratios are declining, interest coverage is improving, and aggregate leveraged-credit cash flow and revenues have recovered to pre-COVID levels. According to bottom-up analyst estimates, the high-yield sector should see further reductions in leverage ratios through 2022.
The high-yield sector should see
Leveraged Credit Fundamentals Are Expected to Further Improve
further reductions in leverage ratios, despite some negative impact from the Delta variant on corporate earnings in the third quarter.
Aggregate Gross Debt / EBITDA
Median Gross Debt / EBITDA
8.0x 7.5x
Expected
7.0x 6.5x 6.0x 5.5x 5.0x 4.5x 4.0x 3.5x c De
. 20
18 M
h a rc
20
19
e Jun
20
19 S
t. ep
20
19
c De
. 20
19 M
h a rc
20 20
e Jun
21 21 21 21 22 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 . 20 . 2 0 ch 2 0 n e 2 0 e . . h t c t c c n p e r p r D Ju Ju De Se Se Ma Ma
Source: Guggenheim Investments, S&P Capital IQ. Data as of 9.30.2021. Based on 430 companies rated BB+ or below with analyst expectations available through Q2 2022. “Exp.” represents consensus analyst expectations.
Measures of U.S. financial conditions show that although they tightened in the final weeks of the third quarter, they remain easier than at any point before the COVID-19 pandemic. Periods when financial conditions are easy tend to be characterized by low corporate default volumes. Indeed, improving fundamentals and easy financial conditions have led to Moody’s default rate forecast for the next 12 months to fall below their expectations before the pandemic. Abundant central-bank driven liquidity is leaving investors with few options to meet return targets, causing them to wave away certain warning flags until they’re more of an immediate concern with a high degree of certainty. However, market liquidity is expected to shrink over the next 12 months as the Fed
Guggenheim Investments
High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook | Fourth Quarter 2021
9
