Legislative Update – An update

THE BALLOT IS SET

A Primary Election Runoff recap.

By STEPHANIE GRAVES, HAA Legislative Chair, with BRADLEY PEPPER, Vice President of Government Affairs

NOW THAT THE May Primary Runoff Elections are wrapped up, the ballot for the November 8th General Election is set.

This year will see us elect nearly every state office from Governor to State Representative, as well as every member of our Congressional delegation. In addition, and of particular interest to us, we will vote on all County Judges as well as some Commissioners, Judges and Justices of the Peace.

This election cycle officially started last November when candidates began filing for office. With the close of candidate filing in December, the ballots for the March 1 Democratic and Republican Primary Elections were locked and we knew all of the contenders at that point.

If a candidate did not receive 50% plus one vote following the March 1 Primary, their election required overtime and proceeded to the May 24 Primary Runoff Election.

The HAA PAC has been active during this cycle. We have screened candidates and made endorsements in dozens of races through the first half of the year and that effort will continue as we move toward the November General Election.

Below is a quick summary of the Runoff Election races that the HAA PAC was interested in.

Harris County Judge –Alex del Moral Mealer (R)

HAA PAC endorsed Mealer received 75% of the vote during the runoff with opponent Vidal Martinez. She will face incumbent County Judge Lina Hidalgo (D) in November for the County Judge seat.

Harris County Civil Court at Law No. 4 –Monica Singh (D)

After receiving 64% of the vote, HAA PAC endorsed Singh was victorious in the primary election. She will face Brian Staley (R) in the November election. TX House District 133 –Mano DeAyala (R)

In a very close race, Mano DeAyala (R) received 51% with Shelley Barineau getting 49% of the vote. In this solidly Republican seat, DeAyala will face Mohamad Maarouf (D) and James Harren (L) in November.

Texas House District 147 –Jolanda Jones (D)

Jones received 53% of the vote while Danielle Keys Bess garnered 47%. Jones will go on to face Damien Thaddeus Jones (R) for this solidly Democratic seat during the November election.

Texas House District 76 –Dr. Suleman Lalani (D)

HAA PAC endorsed candidate Dr. Suleman Lalani received 64% of the vote over his opponent Vanesia Johnson. Dr. Suleman Lalani will go on to face Dan Mathews (R) in November for this Democratic leaning seat. The HAA PAC has been active during this cycle. We have screened candidates and made endorsements in dozens of races through the first half of the year and that effort will continue as we move toward the November General Election.

Midterm Elections

This year’s elections are termed “midterm elections” because they fall two years or in the middle of the president’s four-year term. Historically the president’s political party (in this case Democratic Party) will see some losses due to the electorate’s view of how the country has fared during the last two years.

This year has the potential to see substantially greater losses than in years past. This could be due to a number of factors, including American’s view on the economy and the approval rating of both President Joe Biden and Congress.

In a Gallup poll conducted in May, only 41% approved of President Biden’s job performance, 18% approved of Congress’ performance and 16% were “satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.” Only 14% had a positive view of current economic conditions and 46% rated the economy negatively.

Typically, Americans have a 51% approval rating for the president on average for midterm years, a 30% congressional approval rating, 35% satisfaction on “how things are going in the U.S.”

The number to watch, once we get to November, will be the number of U.S. House of Representatives seats that the Democrats could lose. Going back to 1974, the average number of seats that the sitting president’s party has lost has been 23. There is potential for more though, as we saw in 2018 when Republicans lost 40 during President Trump’s midterm and in 2010 when Democrats lost 63 during President Obama’s first midterm cycle.

With such a volatile political climate and several hot button policy issues on the top of voters’ minds, it remains to be seen what the political landscape will look like on November 9. That said, Republicans only need to flip five House seats to gain control of the chamber, and one seat in the Senate, where the parties are currently split 50-50.

If you have a regulatory problem or question, call the HAA main line at 713-595-0300 and ask for Government Affairs. If a particular code requirement or issue concerns you, let us know by emailing Bradley at bpepper@haaonline.org.