Beyond Stage 5 of the DTM What problems will this pose?

Shaman of the pataxã t ribe ,

Rayyaan

The demographic transition model displays the change in population as a country develops through various ‘stages’. The changes in both death and birth rate respectively are also shown to suggest possible reasons for the change in population. Stage 1 is represented by high birth and death rates which tend to fluctuate slightly, due to various factors such as poor diet and sanitation, as well as the lack of access to contraception and the perception of large families being valuable. This results in a low population, with only small communities such as tribes in the Amazon still at this stage. Stage 2 marks a sharp decline in death rate, as developing countries see an improvement in diet, and significant advances in hygiene and healthcare, all of which resulted in an increase in life expectancy. Birth rate remained high, causing a rapid increase in population. By looking at the UK’s progression in the past 200 years, it can be seen that death rate continues to decline at a slower rate in Stage 3, but the most significant change is the drop in birth rates, caused by the emancipation of women, an improvement in both education and access to contraception and family planning services, compounded by the fact children are starting to become an economic liability.

This is also shown in Brazil, where uneducated have an average total fertility rate of 6.5, a huge contrast to the figure of 2.5 for educated women in the same region. During this period total population is still rapidly increasing, but the rate of natural increase decreases due to the change in birth rate. Stage 4 sees both birth and death rate level off, as they both start to fluctuate slightly as they did in Stage 1, most commonly seen in Western European countries such as France. Stage 5 is understood to result in a small decrease in

population size as death rates rise to exceed birth rates, partly due to an influx of non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes in the US. A common reason for this is the change in lifestyle of an individual as a country progresses through the stages. Stage 5 was added at the end of the 20th century, as Western countries have started to progress further. It’s important for demographers to analyse potential changes to both population structure, such as an ageing population where the reliance on the economically active is not sustainable. There is also potential for a future Stage 6, which could feature further globalisation as countries come together adopting western cultures, leaving behind their own in the process. Another feature of Stage 6 would be increasing death rates due to the change in population structure, as well as an increase in birth rates to accommodate the ageing population, as seen recently in France with its pro-natalist policies.

Nigeria is renowned to be one of

the poorest and least developed countries in the world, currently progressing through Stage 2 of the demographic transition model. This because of a combination of social, economic, political and environmental factors, including extreme birth rates (37.684/1000 in 2020), droughts which occur particularly in Northern Nigeria, for example in 2007 and 2011, harming agriculture and prohibiting economic growth, as well as conflict involving Islamic groups such as Boko Haram. As Nigeria develops, it will experience a rapid increase in population size, as the country transitions from its current youthful population to an ageing population, however this is not expected to happen in the near future. The main consequence of a developing country like Nigeria progressing into Stage 5 and beyond is social, with a loss of culture and traditions such as tribalism as Western methods are implemented in order to aid their development. This will happen over time through various methods. This includes the introduction of TNC’s

in developing countries, with 40 currently located in Nigeria, such as Shell and Nestle. Whilst this brings benefits such as increased employment, not only will these companies have a detrimental effect on local businesses, but the idea of ‘westernising’ countries in Africa and Asia is becoming more prominent. This also occurs as western countries introduce new technology and improvements in healthcare. As this happens, the country itself has less and less control over what happens, as

they becoming increasingly reliant on other countries and NGO’s, which will leave them powerless to refuse western demands, or even worse, corruption may occur within these NGO’s, seen in Honduras between 2010 and 2014. If this ‘process’ of globalisation was to occur in all developing countries, the world would become increasingly connected, all through the development of western technology. One example of globalisation having a positive impact is the process of privatisation, where people on a lower income gain better access to utilities such as water and power. Whilst this may have many advantages, the world would lose its originality, and it’s likely certain cities, towns or villages would be against this idea, particularly those who are determined to follow previous traditions and maintain their culture. An example is the introduction of western fast food chains into Asian countries, which has led to local businesses losing out. If a few areas wanted to move in an opposing direction to the majority of a country, it’s likely these areas would be left behind, and become isolated by following their traditions, as seen by tribes in the Amazon to this day. Overall this shows the most significant implication of a developing country progressing through to stage 5 and beyond is social, with various countries integrating on a global scale, however on a national and local scale, Stage 5 is likely to result in further division.

For an area like the UK already in Stage 5, the social challenges faced by LIC’s will not occur to such an extent,

as the majority of people already integrated in the Western culture, and other communities formed in the UK many years ago, meaning the process of assimilation is well under way. The implications of further development more likely to be economical. The key difference between Stage 4 and 5 of the demographic transition model is transition from a population structure dominated by a large working force, to an ageing population with an increasingly unsustainable dependency ratio, as pressure increases on families, governments and the NHS in the UK’s case, with the population over 64 spending 82% longer in hospital in comparison to others. The UK would be forced to build more hospitals and care homes, as well as implement incentives for people to retire at an older age, as currently 55% of welfare (£114 billion) goes towards the pension of this elderly sector. Essentially the people who’ll fund these changes are the working class, as the government won’t be able to afford it themselves, forcing them to increase taxes, which will generally cause a decline in the standard of living of the economically active. However, this will encourage the UK to be more open to immigration to boost the workforce, a concept which is expected to occur more frequently as countries’ reach and go beyond Stage 5. Then again, this would create further problems for LICs with the concept of brain drain, as their most skilled workers would be attracted to working in developed areas such as the UK. Overall this shows Stage 5 will pose more economical problems rather than social in MDC’s such as the UK. We may see further implementation of pro-natalist government policies, something which has already occurred in Russia and France, as they worry about their ageing populations.

Overall, the progression of countries into Stage 5 of the demographic transition model certainly poses more problems than benefits. These will vary depending on the stage of development and location of a country, with LDC’s LICs more likely to suffer socially, and MDC’s HICs economically, particularly in the long term, putting pressure on the economically active.

References https://populationeducation.org/ stage-5-demographic-transition-model/ The Demographic Transition Model | Intelligent Economist The Challenges of the End of the Demographic Transition | OpenMind (bbvaopenmind.com)