What is Russia’s aim with Ukraine? (Written May 2022)

What is Russia’s aim with Ukraine?

(Written May 2022)

Avital and Leo (Lower Sixth)

Timeline of Recent History:

1922 – Russia and Ukraine become members of the Soviet Union, 1991 – The Soviet Union is dissolved, and Ukraine is in control of their sovereignty. Subsequently numerous nuclear weapons are inherited by Ukraine from the possession of the Soviet Union, making it in possession of the third largest nuclear stockpile globally, Dec 5, 1994 – The Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gives up its nuclear arsenal in return for Russia respecting its sovereignty and independence Dec 2004 – the Orange Revolution, Of the presidential candidates, one with a western orientated view was poisoned right before the election. Protestors took to the street and forced a re-vote, 2008 – Russia makes it clear it is against Ukraine joining NATO as it begins plans to do so, April 2014 – Russia invades and annexes Ukrainian Peninsula of Crimea and continues into Donbas, the conflict that followed resulted in 13,000 Ukrainian fatalities, 2014 and 2015 – Minsk Accords signed by Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany agreeing to a cease-fire. April 2019 – Volodymyr Zelensky is elected with a significant majority and becomes the president of Ukraine. One of his campaign pledges is to return Donbas to Ukraine, 10 Nov 2021 – reported build-up of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, 2021-2022 – Russia demands “security guarantees” that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the alliance draws back troops from countries that joined after 1997. These are rejected, 17 Jan 2022 – Russian troops begin arriving in Belarus for military exercises, 24Jan 2022 – NATO puts troops on standby, 22 Feb 2022 – US announces full sanctions on Russian banks and seized assets of oligarchs and Germany cancels plans for Nord Stream 2, 24 Feb 2022 – Russia launches invasion of Ukraine, 26 Feb 2022 – 100,000 Ukrainian refugees have arrived in Poland. The US offers to evacuate Zelensky who responds saying “I need ammunition, not a ride,” 28 Feb 2022 – first round of ceasefire talks begins but are abandoned after only 5 hours. Ukraine applies to join the EU. 500,000 Ukrainians have now fled, 3 March 2022 – Russian troops seize Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – the largest in Europe, fuelling tension of global consequences like the Chernobyl incident of 1986, 8 March 2022 – 406 civilian deaths recorded in Ukraine, but figure is probably much higher. 22 March 2022 – less than one month into the invasion and already 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced. 25 March 2022 – Russian Ministry of Defence announces its focus is on “liberating” the Donbas region, Ukraine 1 April 2022 – rumours of the Bucha Massacre start to emerge, with evidence of Russian soldiers brutally killing dozens of citizens. Putin is accused of being a “war criminal” 13 April 2022 – the focus of the Russian effort as well as foreign aid is shifted to Donbas. The USA are increasingly aiding Ukraine with weapons as well as training; they donate heavier weaponry including M777 Howitzers 1-16 May 2022 – Ukraine launches a counteroffensive in Kharkiv and manage to push the Russians back towards the border. The situation in the Donbas is unclear and unsteady. 18 May 2022 – Vadim Shishimarin, a Russian soldier, pleads guilty of a killing a 62-year-old Ukrainian Civilian, the first of 41 other Russian soldiers to be tried for a war crime. 16 May 2022 – Russian soldiers leave the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works plant where soldiers and civilians had taken refuge, whilst Mariupol falls under Russian control. 20,000 people had been killed in a siege of Mariupol

N.B. This timeline is only up to date to when this article was written. As this is an ever-changing conflict, we acknowledge that when this article is published the situation will inevitably be different and more information about Russia’s motivation may have come to light.

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What Did Russia Want to Achieve by Invading Ukraine?

On Thursday 24 February Putin publicly addressed his nation to say that he did not feel “safe” or able to “develop and exist” because Russia was threatened by Ukraine. There has been much speculation about Russia’s reasoning behind their violent, unprovoked invasion, with many finding it difficult to understand what benefit Russia could gain from wreaking destruction across a sovereign state, one with allies in America and Europe.

Initially, Russia aimed to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, an inter-governmental military alliance, by which Russia feels threatened because of its history as an enemy of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has, in recent years, received training, weapons and equipment from NATO countries, showing an increasingly closer bond. As Putin entered Ukraine for his military invasion, he accused NATO of threatening his “historic future as a nation” potentially hinting at the Soviet, which is worrying to former USSR states as well as all of Russia’s enemies. Despite the fact that Ukraine has not even obtained an Action Plan for Membership, the first step towards becoming a member, Russia wants a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, in order to ensure a buffer zone off its border and prevent US troops from stationing in Ukraine. However, is this a justification for invasion?

Launching the invasion, Putin declared he wanted to rid Ukraine of its “extremist, Nazi” government. Being Jewish, Volodymyr Zelensky rightfully denies these claims made against his state, which is a vibrant democracy. Ukraine’s Chief Rabbi and the Auschwitz Memorial have rejected and condemned this harmful narrative. The irony, though, goes beyond that; President Putin has now been accused of war crimes (by President Biden and Boris Johnson for deliberate killing of civilians), and by some countries including USA of genocide.

What does President Putin Want Now?

Whilst initially aiming to control Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, after a series of setbacks Russia has now declared its aim is to “liberate the Donbas”. Russia had already captured a third of this area in 2014, and now aims to control it all, which will give them a land corridor to the Black Sea. This is key for Russia, as its other ports is frozen over for many months each year, hindering trade. Russia has clearly reduced its aims.

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Putin is also desperate for a victory which he can present to his nation, in order to avoid embarrassment, improve his popularity, and rally up more patriotism. Therefore, it is unlikely any negotiations will take place – there is no end in sight. Even as of June when this article is being written, the war in Ukraine is still trending on Twitter and featuring daily in all newspapers, proving it is at the forefront of all our minds.

How far is Russia willing to go?

Although Russia has faced many setbacks and is showing signs of slowing down and decreasing its grand aims, the Kremlin may still go as far as to try to overthrow the democratically elected government. This is evidenced by President Zelensky saying that he had been warned that “the enemy has designated me as target number one; my family is target number two.” Putin is also willing to hold on to his pretext and makes it clear that he wants to free Ukraine from oppression and “cleanse” Ukraine of “the Nazis” and has mentioned that he will indite “those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians” to a court of justice. This is ironic since

Putin has personally commissioned his soldiers into committing vast numbers of war crimes, from simply entering Ukraine without provocation, to attacking civilian areas such as the Freedom Square causing at least 45 casualties.

Putin has also damaged Babyn Yar which is Ukraine’s holocaust memorial, when his justification of the invasion to attack Ukraine was in the name of removing the “Nazi” government.

Russia denied aiming to occupy Ukraine or plotting to install a proKremlin puppet government to replace of Zelensky’s democracy. However, he also stated there would be no invasion of Ukraine; so, is Putin’s word to be trusted? On the 26th of February 2022 Putin published an editorial saying that he wanted to restore the Soviet Union by bringing together the world of

Russians, including Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians. In 2021 Putin wrote a piece about how Russia and Ukraine are “one nation” and that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was the “disintegration of historical Russia”. This is especially concerning as currently Putin occupies the regions of the Crimea in Ukraine as well as having installed a puppet government in Belarus under Alexander Lukashenko (a government that is de facto reliant on Russia), proving that he is making good on his word. A new Soviet Union would infringe on countries’ such as Ukraine’s national sovereignty. The centralised nature of the Union prevents many civil rights of the Ukrainian and surrounding nations’ people by denying them the right to vote. Therefore, for many postsoviet states, as well as the EU (whose member states include some that were previously in the USSR), Putin’s determination is threatening.

Conclusion

The secretive nature of Putin’s regime means that we can never be certain about the plans of Russia and its president. Russia has been known to conceal its aims and actions even from its own people. Its word cannot be trusted. Whilst we may live in wait, unsure how long Russia will persevere for and when the attack may stop, we have a fairly accurate idea of the benefits they will get if successful in Ukraine: access to a sea port, a larger (partly Russian) population, and satisfied nostalgia. However, NATO will never disappear and as it appears, the Ukrainian population shows no signs of stopping fighting.

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Reference list

BBC News. 2022. Why has Russia invaded Ukraine and what does Putin want?. [online] Available at: <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56720589> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

Cbsnews.com. 2022. 100 days of war in Ukraine: A timeline. [online] Available at: <https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-timeline100-days/> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

Bloomberg.com. 2022. A Visual Guide to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. [online] Available at: <https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022ukraine-russia-us-nato-conflict/> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

Sky News. 2022. Ukraine-Russia crisis: Why is Moscow so concerned about NATO?. [online] Available at: <https://news.sky.com/story/ukrainerussia-crisis-why-is-moscow-so-concerned-about-nato-12542071> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

Cbsnews.com. 2022. 100 days of war in Ukraine: A timeline. [online] Available at: <https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-timeline100-days/> [Accessed 28 June 2022].

BBC News. 2022. Ukraine war: Russian soldier Vadim Shishimarin jailed for life over war crime. [online] Available at: <https://www.bbc.com/ news/world-europe-61549569> [Accessed 29 Ju