The Luxury Report | September/Q3/YTD 2024 Real Estate Market | Montecito/Hope Ranch/Santa Barbara
Q3 + SEPTEMBER 20 24
Let’s jump into our latest Luxury Report focusing on the South Santa Barbara County and Montecito residential real estate trends for September, Q3 and YTD 2024. Whether you’re planning to invest, sell or simply stay informed—our Luxury Report provides valuable data and expert analysis to guide your decisions in our ever-evolving real estate landscape.
We’ve all seen the national headlines showing declining and slow activity with recently reported existing home sales down to a 14 year low. In contrast, our local market has remained resilient through 2024 with strong demand from qualified and enthusiastic buyers looking for their own slice of paradise in our beautiful coastal community!
Read on for key insights including comprehensive market dynamics, significant sales, key changes, price fluctuations and future outlooks for both buyers and sellers. In addition to sharing what’s happening in our market, we also like to illustrate with clear visuals, charts and graphs. Enjoy!
DEMAND | We still have more buyers than sellers with the available homes for sale gradually increasing each month. YTD comparisons to the same time YTD 2023 for all areas show a 9% increase in the number of transactions to 935 (including off market) with 15% more active inventory. The increase in inventory is encouraging giving buyers more options to choose from. See Active Listings + Sold Analysis chart that follows.
PRICING CORRECTLY | We have noticed that, even with the persistent lack of inventory, buyers are making careful decisions and homes with inflated asking prices are being overlooked. However, well appointed homes that are tastefully remodeled, with notable architecture, are in move-in ready and priced correctly are still selling quickly for premium prices. Overpricing often results in taking longer to sell, lower sold prices and requiring a price correction—which we are seeing all more frequently. The recent metrics reflect this as evidenced by the September single family homes longer DOM at 53 days, homes trading slightly lower at 95% of the original asking price (compared to 20202021’s 107%) and often after lowering the original asking price.
insightThe
investment in staging your home is far less than a pricer reduction on the sales price of your home.
SOLD PRICE | The sold price continues its rise with the median sold price up 6% to $1,786,000. The total sold dollar volume increase is significant at 22% over YTD 2023 as a result of several homes trading at eye popping prices in the luxury market during 2024. See list that follows.
INTEREST RATES/ALL CASH | With interest rates still linger high, many buyers find this significant and are sitting on the sidelines or opting for all cash transactions. Our market has proven to be less interest rate sensitive during 2024 as evidenced by a remarkable 41% of the 935 YTD transactions being from all cash buyers (36% of the 14 YTD sales in Hope Ranch). The Luxury Market is even more resilient with 60% of the 124 sales in Montecito being all cash. There has been a 45% increase in luxury sales YTD through September with 29 properties trading north of $10 million, 9 of which occurred during the 3rd quarter! See full report that follows.
In this highly competitive market—experience matters. We offer extensive market knowledge, world-class marketing and concierge level professional service with complete confidentiality to our clients. Our proven track record of success includes skills necessary to put complicated deals together and negotiate the price and terms that will get your home sold for a premium price and offer accepted on your replacement property—even amongst multiple offers.
Looking for professional + creative results-oriented representation—reach out for a confidential conversation and strategic marketing plan. Let’s Talk!
COULD WE Make You Move . . .
THE SOLUTION
We have historically never seen a better time to capitalized on the equity you may have in your home. In this low inventory market with high buyer demand, now could be the ideal time. Your dream price might be more within reach than you think. In our local market, buyers have been willing to offer above the market price to secure their dream home and live in our beautiful community.
THE QUESTION
Thinking about selling your home but still on the fence? What is your aspirational price at which, if offered from a real buyer, you would consider selling?
IF THE ANSWER IS YES
We have the solution. We can discreetly test your aspirational sale price by entering it into the "Make Me Sell" category of our Compass Platform Database next to your property and wait. This will be exclusively available to our extensive network of 30,000± Compass agents across the country.
LEARN MORE
CONFIDENTIALITY
Your price, property details, and personal information remain completely confidential until you are ready. We will connect with other Compass buyer's agent and present your property details and your aspirational price.
WE MAKE IT EASY / WHY NOT TRY
This is a no risk way to test the market and not incur Days on Market. With each additional day a home is on the market publicly, the value of the property erodes. With your property available discreetly, we eliminate that trap.
LET'S GET STARTED!
Reach out to discuss the details. There is no paperwork to sign and zero obligation to sell. Just expect a call from us when we identify interested buyer!
Some Agents Know The Market
Good Agents Understand The Market Exceptional Agents
- south -
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
YTD 2024 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
+9% change over YTD 2023
935
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES
+9% change over 2023
666
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+9% increase over 2023
$2,943,657
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+6% increase over 2023
$1,786,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES
+3% change over 2023
269
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-1% change over 2023
$1,223,432
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+4% change over 2023
$991,000
-
southSANTA BARBARA COUNTY
Q3 2024 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +3% change over YTD 2023
310
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES
+5% change over 2023
220
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+11% increase over 2023
$3,483,446
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+5% increase over 2023
$2,186,580
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES -2% change over 2023
90
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +3% change over 2023
$1,399,029
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +3% change over 2023
$1,057,500
- southSANTA BARBARA COUNTY
SEPTEMBER 2024 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
+5% change over 2023
103
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL SALES
+4% change over 2023
72
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-4% increase over 2023
$3,722,306
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+6% increase over 2023
$2,494,538
TOTAL AVERAGE DAY ON MARKET
53 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 95%
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL SALES
-7% change over 2023
31
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+23% change over 2023
$1,726,282
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
-15% change over 2023
$1,170,000
TOTAL AVERAGE DAY ON MARKET
27 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 97%
- south -
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
- homes | estates | puds | condos -
Month over Month Comparison
$3,121,561 $2,142,500
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
$2,943,657
$1,786,000
BARBARA COUNTY
-
southSANTA BARBARA COUNTY
- homes | estates | puds (excludes condos)ACTIVE LISTINGS + SOLD ANALYSIS
YTD Totals | 2018-2024
INSIGHT | Inventory + Sales is Trending Up YTD. Could this Signal a Recovery From the Lowest SFH Sales Reported in 2023 of 857— The Same Level as 2008?
The Current Limited Inventory Is Keeping Sold Prices Elevated
LUXURY MARKET SEPTEMBER THIRD QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
The Luxury Market has remained unapologetically resilient throughout 2024 with more buyers than sellers. The available homes for sale is gradually increasing each month giving buyers more options. Some insights -
What is remarkable is the number of Luxury Market homes trading during 2024. Our demand is steady with an increase of approximately 45% of homes listed for $10M or more and sales in this category has grown 10%. A remarkable 29 properties traded over $10M so far this year and 9 during the Third Quarter 2024.
We are seeing a robust Luxury Market with 40 properties trading in Montecito this quarter, a nominal -5% decline from 42 the same time last year. Median sales price rose 15% to $5,587,500 with sold to original list price at 95%. The Luxury Market is less impacted by interest rates and 65% of the sales were all cash. Sales volume for the 40 sales in Montecito was $266,018,874 which is a notable 30% of the entire Santa Barbara County’s 310 sales with total volume of $892,270,724.
Whether you’re planning to invest, sell or simply stay informed—please reach out for a confidential conversation to explore how these metric relate to your situation and property. Not sure—let’s discuss the Compass Make Me Move no risk program where you can test an aspirational sales price.
THIRD QUARTER SALES OF $10M INCLUDE:
3165 Padaro Lane
771 Garden Lane
3281 Padaro Lane
416 Meadowbrook Drive
1130 E Mountain Drive
2128 Birnam Wood Drive
2039 Boundary Drive
167 Pomar Lane
3519 Padaro Lane
Carpinteria
Montecito
$49,598,500 July
$28,400,000 July
Carpinteria $19,500,000 September
Montecito
$16,780,500 September
Montecito $11,050,000 August
Montecito $11,000,000 August
Montecito
Montecito
Carpinteria
$10,900,000 August
$10,600,000 September
$10,000,000 September
CAN WE MAKE YOU MOVE
Thinking about selling your but still on the fence? Is there an aspirational price at which, if offered from a real buyer, would consider selling? Reach out to discuss!
LEARN MORE
MOVE . . . your home, there which, buyer, you Reach
INSIGHT
| Even in a hot market where there are more buyers than houses available for sale, buyers aren’t going to pay attention to a home with an inflated asking price. However, many are willing to pay a premium for homes that are tastefully remodeled, notable architecture and in move-in ready—in all areas.
- let's talkRANDY/MOLLY
AVAILABLE PROPERTIES
- LISTED WITHIN THE IN PAST 40 DAYS -
Check out our carefully curated Compass Collection which includes properties we consider to be exceptional, excellent investments and/or good values - call/text/email for details or a private showing at 805.880.6530.
These properties are available at time of publication, but the market is still moving fast due to historically low inventory. Stay ahead of the market by getting in touch for a list of the most up to inventory—including Compass Private Exclusives (off market) and Coming Soon homes that are not available below or on public search sites.
MONTECITO
YTD+SEPTEMBER 2024 | In Review
Residential Real Estate Update
YTD 2024 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums -4% change over YTD 2023
124
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES
+1% change over 2023
110
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+23% increase over 2023
$8,115,544
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+11% increase over 2023
$5,687,500
TOTAL AVERAGE DAY ON MARKET
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES -44% change over 2023
14
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +8% change over 2023
$3,427,143
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+13% change over 2023
$3,212,500
74 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 60%
SEPTEMBER 2024 | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales) 14
179 SANTA ISABEL LANE$4,000,000 $4,000,000 100% 1 1315 Plaza Pacifica $3,200,000 $2,625,000 82% 97
15 Chase Drive $2,665,000 $2,555,000 96% 34 1930 N Jameson Lane A $1,450,000 $1,270,000 88% 46
- homes | estates | puds | condosSOLD | YTD 2024 REPORT Distributed by Price Range
sales
YTD TOTAL SALES
124 Total Transactions Dollars In Millions
11% YTD SALES OFF MARKET 14 of the 124 Total Sales 60% YTD SALES ALL CASH 75 of the 124 Total Sales
22 Year Trend | 2003—September 2024
$7,586,209
$5,450,000
HOPE RANCH
YTD+SEPTEMBER 2024 | In Review
Residential Real Estate Update
HOPE RANCH
YTD 2024 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes (no condos in Hope Ranch) -18% change over YTD 2023
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES
-18% change over 2023
14
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-10% increase over 2023
$6,512,491
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+2% increase over 2023
$6,116,500
TOTAL AVERAGE DAY ON MARKET
14 CONDOMINIUM HOMES No Condos in Hope Ranch N/A
AVERAGE SALES PRICE N/A
MEDIAN SALES PRICE N/A
139 SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE 87%
HOPE RANCH
SEPTEMBER 2024 | In Review
Single Family Homes (no condos in Hope Ranch)
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
n/a change from 2023 n/a
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
n/a change from 2023 n/a
HIGHEST SALES PRICE n/a
LOWEST SALES PRICE n/a
TOTAL AVERAGE DAY ON MARKET n/a SOLD TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE n/a
REAL TIME MARKET DATA - click -
HOPE RANCH YTD 2024 | 14 TRANSACTIONS
HOPE RANCH
- homes | estates | puds -
THIRD QUARTER TOTAL SALES 2024
Distributed by Price Range
YTD QUARTER SALES 14 Total Transactions Dollars In Millions 14 sales
20 Year Trend | 2005— September 2024
$6,512,491 $6,116,500
SANTA BARBARA
BARBARA
SANTA BARBARA
YTD 2024 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums +9% change over 2023
421
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES
+20% change over 2023
324
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+9% increase over 2023
$2,559,436
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+9% increase over 2023
$2,217,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES +16% change over 2023
97
AVERAGE SALES PRICE -1% change over 2023
$1,267,551
MEDIAN SALES PRICE 0% change over 2023
$1,085,000
SANTA BARBARA
SEPTEMBER 2024 | IN REVIEW
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales)
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+45% change over 2023
$2,668,117
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+42% change over 2023
$2,400,000
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
2321 Edgewater Way Santa Barbara CA 93109
$8,920,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE
899 Cieneguitas Road Santa Barbara CA 93110
$650,000 Condominium Home
SUMMERLAND
YTD 2024 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums -17% change over 2023
8
SINGLE
FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES
-43% change over 2023
4
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-38% increase over 2023
$2,846,000
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
-22% increase over 2023
$2,725,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES n/a change over 2023
0
AVERAGE SALES PRICE N/A
MEDIAN SALES PRICE N/A
SEPTEMBER 2024 | IN REVIEW
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales) 2
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+53% change over 2023
$4,075,000
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+73% change over 2023
$4,075,000
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
2363 Whitney Avenue Summerland CA 93067
$4,075,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE
2363 Whitney Avenue Summerland CA 93067
$4,075,000
CARPINTERIA
YTD+SEPTEMBER 2024 | In Review
Residential Real Estate Update
YTD 2024 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums -13% change over 2023
83
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES -37% change over 2023
33
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +153% increase over 2023
$8,010,566
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +27% increase over 2023
$2,000,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES +16% change over 2023
50
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +13% change over 2023
$944,882
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +6% change over 2023
$827,500
SEPTEMBER 2024 | IN REVIEW
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales)
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
-24% change over 2023
$4,192,864
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+11% change over 2023
$1,527,500
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
3281 Padaro Lane Carpinteria CA 93013
$19,500,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE
5985 Hickory Street, Unit 2 Carpinteria CA 93013
645,000 Condominium Home
GOLETA
Residential Real Estate Update
GOLETA
YTD 2024 REPORT | In Review
Single Family Homes + Condominiums
+27% change over 2023
282
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES
+25% change over 2023
177
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+4% increase over 2023
$1,824,617
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+8% increase over 2023
$1,625,000
CONDOMINIUM HOMES
TOTAL YTD SALES
+35% change over 2023
108
AVERAGE SALES PRICE +5% change over 2023
$1,027,100
MEDIAN SALES PRICE +8% change over 2023
$952,000
SEPTEMBER 2024 | IN REVIEW
Single Family Homes + Condominiums (combined sales)
AVERAGE SALES PRICE
+18% change over 2023
$1,543,908
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
+10% change over 2023
$1,475,000
HIGHEST SALES PRICE
1080 Oakside Way Goleta CA 93117
$3,450,000
LOWEST SALES PRICE
7103 Monique Court Goleta CA 93117
$750,000 Condominium Home
CONCIERGE Real Estate Service
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE
Now more than ever you need an expert advisor on your side who can provide comprehensive analysis and exclusive insights into today’s fast-paced housing market. We see every luxury property available and know the market. Our commitment to staying educated on what’s happening with economic news, the real estate market, local sales and listings is essential to your success when buying or selling properties.
CONCIERGE SERVICE
We strive to deliver a high level of personalized service—personally! We provide our clients with cutting-edge strategies that produce ideal results. Our exceptional service is driven by efficient communication, understanding your needs and having expansive industry resources— combined with expert knowledge of the extensive contracts and required forms to protect your best interests. The process comes together as a result of our years of successful negotiating which leads to a winning deal. We listen carefully, anticipate your needs, execute the deal and handle all the details. The hard work starts when a contract is in place so you will be happy you chose representation experienced in closing the deal smoothly.
COMMUNITY INVESTMENT
Sell a Home | Build a Home initiative. We are deeply connected and committed to the communities in which we live and work. Haden Homes Luxury Property Group has made a pledge to help individuals with housing needs by partnering with Habitat for Humanity. For every home that our clients buy or sell, Haden Homes makes a donation to Santa Barbara’s Habitat for Humanity.
DISCRETION
Privacy is the Ultimate Commodity And the Decision to Sell Your Home Is a Personal One.
FLEXIBILITY
Decide When to Share Details About Your Home - Including PriceMore Expansively On Your Own Timing.
QUALITY
Exclusive Exposure To Compass Agents, Including Premium Placements On Agent Facing Platform.
VALUE
Get the Best Offer by Testing The Market Privately to Gather Key Insights Without Your Listing Getting Stale or Overexposed.
COMPASS PRIVATE EXCLUSIVE LISTINGS
Ask Us About Our Exciting Private Exclusive Listings | Contact Us Live For details!
A Compass Private Exclusive listing is an off-market home that can be shared by a Compass agent directly with their colleagues and their buyers. Property details are not disseminated widely and won’t appear on public home search websites.
Listing your home as a private exclusive allows you to control what information is shared about you and your home while still getting exposure to top agents at Compass.
THE TALK IS INVENTORY/BUYER REPRESENTATION + MORE
- click link for full article -
Inman Article | Why Buyer Representation Should Matter So Much To Sellers
Does a Beach House Have to Feel "Beachy"?
Designers Weigh In On If Your Location Should Influence Your Style
This Is the #1 Project to Increase Your Home's Value—Experts Say
National News: Housing Inventory Fell Last Week—Have Sellers Called It Quits?
7 Most Popular Exterior Paint Colors Designers Always Choose for Their Projects
Planting These 5 Trees in Your Yard Can Add Thousands to Your Property Value In This Case—Money Really Does Grow on Trees!
Is Home Staging Worth the Hype?
DATA SOURCES | LISTING DISCLOSURE
All information provided is deemed reliable but has not been verified. We do not guarantee it and recommend buyers make their own inquiries. Data source Fidelity National Title of Santa Barbara, CORT and Santa Barbara MLS. INdata Real Estate Market Reporting through September 2024.
Properties featured are courtesy of the Santa Barbara MLS and are available for sale at time of publication. They may be listed by brokers and/or agents other than Compass or Haden Homes Luxury Property Group. Contact us for details or to set up a private showing at 805.880.6530.
CHICAGO TITLE FIDELITY NATIONAL TITLE
SANTA BARBARA MLS
NATIONAL REAL ESTATE INSIGHTS | OCTOBER
National Real Estate Market Data Including Economic Indicators + Trends
After substantially falling through early October, mortgage interest rates spiked up again, but even before that occurred, the earlier drop did not precipitate the rebound in buyer demand many expected in September: It may be that expectations of further declines kept many buyers on the sidelines. In the meantime, the increase in the number of homes for sale continues to outpace sales activity, tilting the supply and demand dynamic and underlying market conditions to buyers' advantage. However, many homes are still selling quickly for over asking price: It all depends on the property, and its price, preparation before going on market, marketing, condition and circumstances.
Most markets slow dramatically mid-November through mid-January. (Some "snowbird" markets buck this trend.) Though new-listing inventory falls, this is usually the period in which buyers can negotiate most aggressively.
• U.S. existing-home sales in September declined 13% from August and 5% year-over-year.
• Year over year, the median single-family-home sales price and the median condo/co-op price in September were up 2.9% and 2.2% respectively: Both have declined from highs hit in June, which reflects the usual seasonal trend.
• * The number of active listings ticked up from August, and jumped 23% from September 2023, hitting its highest count in 4 years. Price reductions were also up 23% year-over-year.
• Approximately 57% of sales went into contract in less than 1 month, 20% sold over list price, and 30% purchased all-cash. The median days-on-market to acceptance of offer was 28 days, and sold listings received an average of 2.4 offers. 15% of Q3 contracts saw delays in scheduled close of escrow, and 6% of contracts were terminated before completion of sale. Finding affordable homeowner's insurance continues to be increasingly challenging in many regions.
