Mobility: Heartcore Consumer Technology Trends 2021

Mobility behavior has changed dramatically in 2020.

"Work from home" has decreased the need for commuting and short-range mobility, international travel, and public transport have been the big losers during the pandemic due to public and private health concerns.

Shifting back to private vehicles?

Some mobility behaviors might need a few years to go back to "normal". A BCG survey indicates that consumers will increase their use of private mobility (cars, bikes, walking) once restrictions are lifted, China with larger behavior shifts compared to the US and Europe.

However, old patterns will rebound once the pandemic is over.

Data from ride-hailing suggests that mobility patterns bounce back once restrictions are lifted and health risks are reduced. While lockdowns have caused drastic changes in mobility patterns, we will not see those changes stick to a large extent.

E-bikes have been the big winner of the pandemic.

2020 saw a surge in E-bike sales. Market growth had already been observable in recent years on the back of a larger offering of high quality bikes, affordable price points and longer ranges/mileage.

E-bikes are an alternative mode of transport for mid ranges, replacing partially normal bikes, but also eating into car and public transport "market shares". As price points drop further and cities build out bike infastructure, E-bikes will be the fastest growing mode of mobility in the next

Amidst demand declines, micromobility is consolidating.

Covid-19 accelerated the consolidation in the micro-mobility market. Funding has been concentrated on a small number of national and international winners, who have then swooped up strugglign competitors. In the race to build a mobility "super app" we'll see more consolidation and increasing multi-modality.

People are using the car more but deferring new purchase decisions.

New car registration growth had plateaued for the pandemic, 2020 was the steepest yearly drop since records started. We see an increased demand for flexible usage and financing options.

EVs have been the bright star.

2020 saw steep increase in new PEVs on the streets of western countries, with a YoY growth of 88% compared to 2019, in stark contrast to the overall new registrations the passenger vehicles seeing steep declines across the board. PEVs are growing as a percentage of the total number of vehicles and will continue to do so as technology continues to progress and green initiatives are pushed in the western hemisphere.

EVs are breaking into the mainstream.

Massive battery cost declines coupled with the government subsidies mean the entry-level electric vehicles are becoming very affordable.

EVs are approaching price parity with gas-powered cars.

The total cost of ownership in the US (includes purchase price, gas, maintenance, insurance and resale value) for a like-for-like EV dropped below that of a Toyota Camry in 2019. Retail prices are expected to reach parity with gas powered cars soon.

Full autonomous driving is still decades away.

Rand Corporation researchers have estimated that the number of miles driven by AVs to ensure a lower failure rate more than human drivers to be around 100B miles. Waymo, the leading contender among AV players had completed a total of 20 million miles early on in the pandemic.

An accelerated pace from improved algorithms and growing AV Fleets will shorten the time to the 100B miles mark. However, we expect that parity with humans won't be enough to achieve regulatory approval and that safety standards for AVs will require significantly more data.