Preferences will be vital in Clarence poll

candidate of choice. But more on that later.

Some of your candidates don’t want anything to do with them, others wish they could ignore them and some will live and die for them.

They’re preferences and they are what are troubling the minds of a good number of candidates as time ticks away toward Saturday’s Clarence Valley Council election.

We talked with former Clarence Valley Council deputy mayor and election tragic Craig Howe about how preferences could play out in this year’s vote.

Mr Howe, who served two terms on council and fnished as deputy mayor in 2016, has been happy to step away from local government, but he maintains a fascination with the electoral process.

At each local government election since 2016 he’s created and moderated a Facebook pages, Clarence Valley meet the candidates, where people can ask candidates pertinent questions about their reasons for running.

The page also runs mock poll where people can “vote” for their

Mr Howe said the 2024 poll differs from any of the elections he has contested or witnessed since 2008.

“I can’t see there being a ‘Richie vote’,” he said, referring to the wildly popular vote the current Clarence MP Richie Williamson attracted when he stood for council from 2005 to 2021.

“When Richie left in 2021, people wondered who was going to pull those big numbers and it was Jeff Smith.”

He said the crucial thing was candidates reaching their quota.

The quota is determined by frst dividing the aggregate number of formal frst preferences by one more than the number of candidates to be elected. The quotient (disregarding the fraction) is increased by 1 to give the quota.

The NSW Electoral Commission has the number of electors in Clarence standing at 41,890.

In the voting system used in local elections once a candidate reach his or her quota the preferences were distributed to other candidates. Continued

“Greg’s in one, Hellwig two, and Lynne Cairns three.” He said. “But then, if you look at Hellwig, she’s gone her one, and then Lynne Cairns at two, which what they’re hoping will happen is Greg’s preferences will fow from him to Hellwig, and then she’ll get her quota, and then the rest of them will fnd Greg’s will fow down to them.” about 35 votes cast.

“It’s too small to be a really good sample at the moment,” he said.

“But even in 35 votes you can see a trend and at the moment some of those trends are very interesting and might worry a few candidates.” candidates also received the preferences of candidates who were eliminated during counting.

Mr Howe said it anyone was going to poll big numbers this year it would most likely be someone well known in Grafton.

“Jeff Smith got it, and that’s because he owned the ice cream shop in Prince Street,” he said.

“You got a lot of votes from Grafton, and Grafton the big voter base, you know. So that that’s why I think Ray Smith might be a chance to pull in those sort of numbers.”

But Mr Howe said while this year Ray Smith and shared a surname, the recognition factor might not be the same.

“He hasn’t been around for a while, either, so maybe, you know, the younger people don’t necessarily know him,” he said.

He said Greg Clancy might be a chance to poll well, but he doubted if the numbers would as high as Williamson’s or Smith’s in previous elections.

But he said a new candidate might consider joining a ticket with someone like Dr Clancy, who has served two terms on the council.

Mr Howe said if you looked at the how to vote choice of candidate Mellissa Hellwig and Lynne Cairns you could see that pattern.

But Mr Howe said these ideas were conditional on candidates reaching their quotas, which might not happen.

He said there a lot of candidates from down river, who would be contesting a smaller voter base.

“It might not shape up this way at all,” Mr Howe said. “Voters might decide they want a balanced council and decide to pick someone from the conservative side and some from the not-so-conservative side.

“So then you have someone like Cristie Yager or Amanda Brien. Where do they ft into that.

“It could be the preferences don’t follow the how to vote cards and go everywhere.”

Mr Howe said his Facebook poll had been disappointing so far, with

Pushed to tip who he thought might make the council this year, Mr Howe said Ulmarra’s Cristie Yager was his bolter.

“She’s done very well getting recognition on social media and I like what she’s saying’ he said.

“She seems to be a person who cares about people and that’s what people want.”

Of the incumbents he thinks the Mayor Peter Johnstone would be reelected, despite his rocky start to the leadership role.

He thought Steve Pickering and Debrah Novak were also likely to be re-elected but thought some of the incumbents might struggle.

“With the ones that retired this time, there could be fve maybe even six new faces on council when the counting’s down,” he said.