ABARES Weekly Australian Climate, Water, and Agricultural Update (Ending 28 August 2024)

In the week ending 28 August 2024, a dominant high-pressure system kept most of Australia dry, with rainfall concentrated in the southwest and southeast. Cropping regions in Western Australia, central to southern New South Wales, and eastern Victoria saw rainfall ranging from 5 to 50 millimetres. Parts of South Australia recorded up to 10 millimetres, while Queensland and northern New South Wales cropping regions experienced no rainfall. The recorded rainfall is expected to bolster winter crop yield prospects and maintain soil moisture reserves, particularly in southern Western Australia and central New South Wales.

Weather Outlook

In the coming days, cold fronts are predicted to bring colder weather and showers to the southwest and southeast of Australia, including Tasmania. High-pressure systems will likely keep central and northern parts of the country mostly dry.

• Cropping Regions: o Western Australia: Expected rainfall of 5 to 25 millimetres. o Victoria: Forecast to receive up to 50 millimetres. o South Australia: Predicted rainfall of 5 to 10 millimetres.

This anticipated rainfall should support crop and pasture growth in southern regions, while crops in New South Wales and Queensland will rely on stored soil moisture for continued growth.

National Rainfall Outlook for Spring 2024

The outlook for Spring 2024 indicates a higher probability of abovemedian rainfall in eastern central areas of Australia. However, much of Western Australia and northwestern areas of the Northern Territory are likely to receive belowmedian rainfall, with less than a 40% chance of exceeding median rain.

• Rainfall

Probabilities: o Queensland and New South Wales: 75% chance of receiving 50 to 200 millimetres. o Other States: 25 to 100 millimetres expected.

These rainfall totals, if realized, should support the fowering and grain-flling stages of winter crop