Date: September 24, 2012 Regarding: 2011 Motorcycle Theft and Recovery (through 5/31/12) Report (External Dissemination) Prepared By: Chris Kluz, Strategic Analyst
Executive Summary This ForeCAST Report analyzes motorcycle thefts for 2011 and recoveries for 2011 and 2012 (through 5/31/12) in the United States (U.S.), including the District of Columbia (D.C.) and Puerto Rico. For the purposes of this report, the National Crime Information Center (NCIC) motorcycle theft data for 2011 and recovery data for 2011 and 2012 (through 5/31/12) was analyzed by NCIC Make, Model, and Style fields. This report is divided into two sections. The first section analyzes motorcycle thefts in the U.S. for 2011 by Theft Year, Theft Month, Theft Day, Theft State, as well as Motorcycle Make and Manufactured Year. The second section analyzes motorcycle recoveries in the U.S. for 2011 and 2012 (through 5/31/12) by Recovery Year, Recovery Month, Recovery Day, Recovery State as well as Motorcycle Make. The appendix at the end of this report includes the methodology of the data edits and a visual map of motorcycle thefts by county. Overall, there were a total of 46,667 motorcycle thefts in the U.S. in 2011. From 2010 to 2011, motorcycle thefts decreased 6% even though motorcycle sales slightly increased; according to the Motorcycle Industry Council1 (MIC), there was a 0.3% increase in motorcycle sales between 2010 (439,678 units) and 2011 (440,899 units); this is a difference of 1,221 units. Motorcycle thefts increased during the warmer months, as July and August had the most motorcycle thefts and December, January, and February had the least motorcycle thefts. Motorcycle thefts typically occurred on Mondays and Tuesdays while the highest number of recoveries occurred on Wednesdays and Thursdays. Of the 46,667 motorcycle thefts in 2011, 17,199 or 37% of the motorcycles were recovered from 01/01/2011 through 05/31/2012. July and August were the months with the greatest number of motorcycle recoveries while January and February were the months with the fewest motorcycle recoveries. The states with the most motorcycle thefts in 2011 also had the highest recoveries for the same period; these states were California (5,927 thefts and 2,279 recoveries), Texas (3,950 thefts and 1,135 recoveries) and Florida (3,927 thefts and 1,486 recoveries). Honda, Yamaha, and Suzuki were the motorcycle Makes with both the most motorcycle thefts and recoveries.
1
The MIC’s figures include data reported by 19 manufacturers: Aprilia, Arctic Cat, BMW, Buell, Can-Am, Ducati, Harley-Davidson, Honda, Husaberg, Kawasaki, KTM, Moto Guzzi, Piaggio, Polaris, Suzuki, Triumph, Vespa, Victory and Yamaha.
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SECTION 1: Motorcycle Thefts in the U.S. (2011 through 5/31/12) This section analyzes the 46,667 motorcycle thefts, reported to NCIC, in the U.S. in 2011, as compared to the 49,791 thefts in 2010. The following subsections further analyze the 46,667 motorcycle thefts by Theft Year, Theft Month, Theft State, and Make. Motorcycle Thefts: By Theft Year The following graph shows the 46,667 motorcycle thefts in the U.S. for Theft Year 2011. motorcycle thefts declined 6% from 49,791 in 2010 to 46,667 thefts in 2011.
49,791
The number of
Motorcycle Thefts in the U.S. By Theft Year 2010-2011
50,000 46,667
48,000 46,000 44,000 2010
2011
Motorcycle Thefts: By Theft Month and Year The following table and graph shows 2011 motorcycle thefts in the U.S. by Theft Month. In general, motorcycle theft is a seasonal crime related to warmer months, as July and August had the most motorcycle thefts in 2011 (5,544 motorcycle thefts in July and 5,397 in August). December, January, and February were the months with the fewest motorcycle thefts (2,475 in December; 2,632 in January; and 2,147 in February).
2011 Thefts Theft Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Totals
2,632 2,147 3,137 3,867 4,632 4,977 5,544 5,397 4,454 4,042 3,363 2,475
Percent of Thefts (%)* 6% 5% 7% 8% 10% 11% 12% 12% 10% 9% 7% 5%
46,667
*Percents were rounded to the nearest whole number.
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2011 Motorcycle Thefts: By Theft Month 0
1,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2,632 2,147 3,137 3,867 4,632 4,977 5,544 5,397 4,454 4,042 3,363 2,475 Motorcycle Thefts: By Day of the Week
The following table shows motorcycle thefts in the U.S. for 2011 according to the day of theft. Motorcycle thefts showed a higher theft rate at the beginning of the week (6,962 motorcycle thefts on Mondays and 6,907 on Tuesdays). Saturday and Sunday were the days with the fewest reported motorcycle thefts (6,503 on Saturdays and 6,422 on Sundays).
Day of the Week Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
2011 Motorcycle Thefts
Percent of Thefts Day of the Week (%)* 14% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14%
6,422 6,962 6,907 6,663 6,604 6,606 6,503
*Percents were rounded to the nearest whole number.
Motorcycle Thefts: By State The following table shows the number of 2011 motorcycle thefts in the U.S. by Theft State. The chart ranks the states based on the total number of motorcycle thefts. There were 46,667 motorcycle thefts in the U.S. in 2011. The state of California had 50% more reported thefts than the second ranking state of Texas.
2011 Theft Rank 1 2 3 4 5
Theft State
2011 Motorcycle Thefts
CA TX FL NC IN
5,927 3,950 3,927 2,466 2,114
Percent of Thefts by State (%) * 13% 8% 8% 5% 5%
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6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
SC GA NY PA MD WA VA OH MO AR MI AZ NJ MA IL TN CO NV KY AL OK LA CT MS KS OR PR WI NM MN UT IA WV DE HI DC NE ID RI NH ME MT AK VT SD WY ND
1,727 1,512 1,460 1,455 1,445 1,275 1,268 1,097 1,047 1,005 966 945 907 862 817 803 756 753 731 717 646 638 555 541 455 405 400 367 359 329 255 241 198 189 180 138 128 126 107 83 82 78 63 62 46 43 21
Total Thefts
46,667
*Percents were rounded to the nearest whole number.
4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2011 Motorcycle Theft s 2011 and Recovery (through 5/31/12) Report (External Dissemination) September 12, 2012 Page 5 of 15
The following graph shows the Top 10 States with the greatest number of motorcycle thefts in the U.S. for 2011. The Top 10 States accounted for 25,983 motorcycle thefts, or 56% of the 46,667 motorcycle thefts. The state with the most motorcycle thefts was California with 5,927 motorcycle thefts, or 13%, of the total number of motorcycle thefts.
6,000
5,927
2011 Top 10 Motorcycle Theft States
5,000 3,950
3,927
4,000
3,000
2,466 2,114 1,727
2,000
1,512 1,460 1,455 1,445
1,000 0 CA
TX
FL
NC
IN
SC
GA NY
PA MD
Motorcycle Thefts: By Make A total of 550 motorcycle Makes were identified within the 46,667 motorcycle thefts in the U.S. for 2011. The following table displays the Top 15 Makes with the greatest number of motorcycle thefts for 2011. The Top 15 Makes accounted for 41,304 motorcycle thefts, or 89%, of the 46,667 motorcycle thefts. The Top 15 Make with the most motorcycle thefts was Honda with 11,014 thefts, or 24% of all motorcycle thefts. *Note: 3,484 motorcycle (CYCL) and 198 miniscooter (MINI) records were not included in the Top15 theft rankings as the actual Makers were not specifically identified. 2011 Rank
Make*
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Yamaha Motor Corporation American Suzuki Motor Corporation Kawasaki Motors Corp., U.S.A. Harley Davidson, Inc. KTM Sportmotorcycle AG KYMCO U.S.A., Inc. Vespa International Bajaj Auto., Ltd. Goldenvale, Inc. - Roketa Ducati Motor Holding Astronautical Bashan Genuine Cycle Zhejiang Shenmao Appliance Co Ltd. E-TON Power Tech Co Ltd.
11,014 8,880 7,281 5,009 3,120 410 350 323 294 286 232 226 197 153 150
Percent of Thefts by Make (%) 24% 19% 16% 11% 7% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
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Motorcycle Thefts: By Top 10 Manufactured Years The following pie chart displays the Top 10 manufactured years of motorcycles that were stolen in 2011. The manufactured year that showed the highest amount of motorcycle thefts was 2008, which represented 13% of all thefts; followed by 2007 and 2006 with 12% and 11% respectively.
2011 Motorcycle Thefts: Top 10 Manufactured Years
6%
All Others
4%
2011
19%
6%
2010 2009
8%
5%
2008 2007
5%
2006
11%
2005
11% 12%
2004 2003
13%
2002
Motorcycle Thefts: Top Make by Theft State The table below shows the Top Make for each Theft State. States showing more than one motorcycle make indicates a tie for total thefts.
Theft State
Top Make
AK AL AR AZ CA CO CT DC DE FL GA HI IA ID IL IN KS KY
2006 Honda
Total Thefts 7
2007 Suzuki 2007 Honda 2005 Honda 2007 Suzuki 2007 Yamaha 2008 Suzuki 2009 Yamaha 2011 Yamaha 2007 Honda 2006 Suzuki 2007 Suzuki 2007 Honda 2004 Yamaha/2004 Honda 2006 Honda 2008 Roketa 2003 Honda 2007 Honda
32 66 31 208 20 14 10 7 135 59 13 7 6 23 46 15 33
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LA MA MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR PA PR RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT WA WI WV WY
2007 Suzuki 2006 Suzuki 2006 Suzuki 2009 Honda 2006 Suzuki 2007 Yamaha 2006 Honda 2007 Honda 2003 Harley Davidson 2007 Honda 2011 Kawasaki/2007 Honda 2006 Yamaha 2005 Yamaha 2007 Suzuki 2008 Suzuki 2011 TAIO 2009 Yamaha 2007 Honda 2007 Honda 2007 Honda 2007 Suzuki 2005 Vento 2011 Yamaha 2007 Suzuki 2005 Yamaha/2006 Yamaha/ 2007 Cana/ 2007 CYCL 2006 Honda 2007 Honda 2003 Honda/2005 Honda 2007 Suzuki 2003 Honda 2006 Yamaha 1986 Honda/2005 Yamaha 2003 Honda 2001 Yamaha/2005 Honda
31 31 52 4 29 13 31 39 3 70 2 6 5 38 6 32 76 39 31 17 45 54 6 49 3 27 153 8 42 4 42 12 11 3
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SECTION 2: Motorcycle Recoveries in the U.S. (2011 through 5/31/12) This section analyzes the 2011 U.S. motorcycle thefts recovered between 01/01/2011 and 05/31/2012. There were 15,017 motorcycle recoveries associated with the 46,667 motorcycle thefts in the U.S. for 01/01/2011 through 12/31/2011. Additionally from 01/01/2012 to 05/31/2012 there were 2,182 recoveries, of 2011 thefts, for a total of 17,199 recoveries. The following subsections further analyze these 17,199 motorcycle recoveries by Recovery Year, Recovery Month, Recovery Day, Recovery State and motorcycle Make. Motorcycle Recoveries: 2011 Thefts The pie chart on the following page shows the recovery rate, which was 37%, for the 2011 motorcycle thefts recovered in 2011 and 2012 (through 5/31/12).
Motorcycle Recoveries (2011 through 5/31/12)
17,199 Number of Unrecovered 2011 Thefts
37%
Number of Recovered 2011 Thefts
29,468 63%
Motorcycle Recoveries: By Day of the Week The following table and graph shows motorcycle recoveries, by day, in the U.S. for 2011 and 2012 (through 5/31/12). Motorcycle recoveries, during this period, showed a higher rate of recovery towards the middle of the week (2,899 motorcycle recoveries on Wednesdays and 2,812 recoveries on Thursdays). Saturdays and Sundays showed the fewest number of motorcycle recoveries for 2011 (1,771 on Saturdays and 1,710 on Sundays).
Day of the Week
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
2011 - 2012 (through 5/31/12) Recoveries 1,710 2,569 2,782 2,899 2,812 2,656 1,771
*Percents were rounded to the nearest whole number.
Percent of Recoveries Day of the Week (%)* 4% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4%
2011 Motorcycle Theft s 2011 and Recovery (through 5/31/12) Report (External Dissemination) September 12, 2012 Page 9 of 15
2011 Motorcycle Thefts and Recoveries (through 5/31/12) : By Day of the Week 8,000
6,697
7,282
7,194
6,977
6,955
6,934
6,810
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000
2,782 2,569
3,000 2,000
2,899
Thefts
2,812 2,656
Recoveries 1,771
1,710
1,000 0
Motorcycle Recoveries: By Month and Year The following chart shows the number of motorcycle recoveries by Recovery Month and Recovery Year from 2011 through May 31, 2012. July and August were the months with the greatest number of motorcycle recoveries in 2011 (1,843 recoveries in July and 2,057 recoveries in August) and were also the months with the greatest number of thefts. The months with the fewest number of motorcycle recoveries in 2011 were January (361 recoveries) and February (480 recoveries).
2011 Month Recoveries Jan 361 Feb 480 Mar 722 Apr 950 May 1,311 Jun 1,567 July 1,843 Aug 2,057 Sept 1,773 Oct 1,557 Nov 1,295 Dec 1,101 Totals 15,017
2012 (through 5/31/12) 651 450 466 326 289 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2,182
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Motorcycle Recoveries: By State The following table displays the number of recoveries for 2011 and 2012 (through 5/31/12) by Recovery State. Also included is the overall average time of recovery (31 days) which provides a benchmark when comparing each stateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s average time of recovery. The chart ranks the states based on the total number of motorcycle recoveries from 2011. An asterisk (*) represents a tie in the total number of motorcycle recoveries through 2011. Not all recoveries had a recovery State listed and are therefore not listed in the table.
2011 Recoveries
2012 Recoveries (through 5/31/12))
CA FL
2,085 1,334
194 152
22 24
TX IN NC SC MD WA GA PA MO VA OH AZ AR KY NY NV MI IL CO NJ TN OK MA AL LA OR CT KS WI MN UT MS NM IA DC HI WV ID DE PR
965 769 725 530 506 405 397 393 387 358 319 305 298 296 283 275 262 258 247 246 241 211 208 189 185 176 174 150 149 125 124 118 118 87 69 63 62 46 44 43
170 68 98 100 59 59 73 56 104 61 72 59 27 75 26 51 44 37 40 29 35 60 21 24 39 29 32 19 11 19 18 13 22 12 10 7 5 8 4 10
32 21 28 35 27 24 34 33 46 36 43 35 35 53 29 31 29 36 25 20 31 50 20 38 37 40 25 25 22 21 23 25 42 26 25 20 38 28 42 36
2011 Rank
Recovery State
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34* 34* 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Average Time of Recovery (Days)
2011 Motorcycle Theft s 2011 and Recovery (through 5/31/12) Report (External Dissemination) September 12, 2012 Page 11 of 15
RI NE MT NH ME AK SD WY ND VT
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
41 39 36 33 31 23 20 15 10 7
Totals:
15,017
5 8 8 0 5 4 2 1 1 2
13 37 32 28 20 64 39 48 23 2 Avg.: 31 Days
2,182
The graph below shows the Top 10 States for motorcycles stolen in 2011 and recovered from 2011 through 05/31/2012. The Top 10 States accounted for 9,138 motorcycle recoveries, or 53%. The state with the most motorcycle recoveries was California with 2,279 motorcycle recoveries, or 13%, of the 17,199 motorcycle recoveries in 2011 (through 05/31/2012.
Top 10 Motorcycle Recovery States: 2011 through 5/31/12 2,500
2,279
2,000 1,486
1,500
1,135 1,000
837
823 630
565
500
470
464
449
GA
WA
PA
0 CA
FL
TX
IN
NC
SC
MD
2011 Motorcycle Theft s 2011 and Recovery (through 5/31/12) Report (External Dissemination) September 12, 2012 Page 12 of 15
The following visual compares the Top 10 States, in only 2011, of thefts verses recoveries.
2011 Motorcycle Theft s 2011 and Recovery (through 5/31/12) Report (External Dissemination) September 12, 2012 Page 13 of 15
Motorcycle Recoveries: By Top 15 Makes : By State A total of 336 motorcycle Makes were identified from the 17,199 motorcycle recoveries in the U.S. from 2011 through 5/31/2012. The following table and graph displays the Top 15 Makes of motorcycle recoveries. The Top 15 Makes accounted for 13,075 motorcycle recoveries, or 87%, of the 17,199 motorcycle recoveries. The Make with the most motorcycle recoveries was Honda, with 3,466, or 23% of the total number of motorcycle recoveries. * Note: 1,361 (CYCL) records were not included in the Top 15 recovery ranking as the actual Makers were not specifically identified. 2011 Recoveries
2012 Recoveries (through 5/31/12)
American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Yamaha Motor Corporation American Suzuki Motor Corporation
3,466
510
2,618
398
2,112
314
Kawasaki Motors Corp., U.S.A.
1,619
259
Harley Davidson, Inc.
903
142
KTM Sportmotorcycle AG
140
24
Vespa International
139
11
7
Goldenvale, Inc. - Roketa
135
11
8
KYMCO U.S.A., Inc.
134
20
9
Astronautical Bashan
104
9
Genuine Cycle
100
16
Taotao Group Co. Ltd Ducati Motor Holding
98
21
75
8
Triumph Motorcycles Ltd Bajaj Auto., Ltd.
71
6
69
9
2011 Recovery Rank 1 2 3
4
5
6
10 11 12 13 14 15
Recovery Make*
Top 15 Motorcycle Recoveries: By Make 2011 through 5/31/12 Honda Yamaha Suzuki Kawasâ&#x20AC;Ś CYCL* Harleyâ&#x20AC;Ś KTM KYMC Vespa RKTA TAOI GENU BASH Ducati TRUM 0
164 154 150 146 119 116 113 83 77
3,976 3,016 2,426 1,878 1,513 1,045
2,000
4,000
6,000
2011 Motorcycle Theft s 2011 and Recovery (through 5/31/12) Report (External Dissemination) September 12, 2012 Page 14 of 15
Appendix: Appendix 1: The NCIC theft data from 2011 was edited in the following manner: • Records with thefts of anything other than the motorcycle model and styles2 were removed. • Records with blank or incomplete VIN fields were removed. • Records with motorcycle parts (wheels, tracks, etc.) were removed. • ATVs, watercraft, golf carts, motorized wheelchairs, snowmobiles, toys, go-carts, farm equipment, etc. that were mislabeled as a motorcycle style were removed. • VIN structures that began with “ATV” were removed. Appendix 2: The map below shows the 2011 motorcycle thefts: By County
2
There are 7 motorcycle styles identified within NCIC: minibikes, minicycles, mopeds, motorbikes, motorcycles, motorscooters, and multi-wheels manufactured for on or off-road use.
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