The Climate Column

COP26

Patrick Dunne

I am writing this article on what is expected to be the last day of the COP26 conference, Friday 12th November 2021. So, where are we at? What have we learned about the likelihood of staying below a 1.5 degrees average temperature rise? Who has made real and meaningful commitments to phasing out fossil fuel exploration, extraction, and exploitation? Who is willing to stump up financial reparations to the most affected people and areas (MAPA)? Who has emerged as a global leader, ready to take on the enormous task of global societal transformation, to phase out our unjust economic and energy systems, to lead us to a more equitable, more sustainable future?

The answers, I’m afraid, make for grim reading.

This COP got off to a bad start, with snubs from China’s President Xi and Russia’s Putin, followed by Biden’s American economic agenda— which originally included punishments for industries and corporations who failed to curb emissions —effectively gutted by Democrat oil baron, Joe Manchin. The impacts of the Covid pandemic have weakened even New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern, whilst domestic economic matters and revelations of corruption and sleaze stole both the headlines and the attention of Messrs. Biden and Johnson, respectively.

The opening weekend speeches saw Prime Minister Johnson attempt to bluster inanely to a roomful of people who had actually read the briefings and the science for longer than it takes to dash off an amusing Telegraph article. The leaders of the MAPA countries gave impassioned speeches— the premier of Tuvalu addressing the COP whilst standing up to his thighs in rising seas (Guardian online, 2021) —but still their voices were drowned out by celebrity appearances and greenwashed adverts. We witnessed brazen rhetoric from Brazil’s President Bolsonaro and representatives from the Australian Government, urging further deforestation and new investment in fossil fuels. It tuned out the largest delegation was made up of lobbyists from the fossil fuel industries, with more than 500 individuals counted. It’s reasonable to assume that the overall corporate network was far higher, including banks, insurance companies and others who fund, structure, and support our planet’s mega-corporations. You couldn’t make it up, although it often seems like they are.

There was much talk of the $100billion owed by rich nations to those smaller, vulnerable nations who are most affected by the crisis. The reparation payments, intended to help adaptation and mitigation, were supposed to be given in 2020, but are now due in 2022. This seemingly generous sum is, it turns out, largely made up of loans which will create debt to benefit the rich nations. It’s also a drop in the bucket, given the loss and damage created by emissions from the rich countries.

So, at the end of COP26, the likelihood of staying below 1.5 degrees seems all but gone, with various assessments of the pledges from this conference suggesting that 1.9 degrees of warming by end of the century is highly likely, and anything up to 4 degrees is still a possibility.

On the plus side, an international coalition— including countries from Denmark to Costa Rica, but not the UK —has formed to lead countries away from fossil fuels (Shankleman & Dlouhy, 2021). It is a small, bright light in a pretty dark fog of weak promises and greenwashed pledges. The COP26 Coalition— a union of various protest organisations —has provided inspirational talks and the opportunity to build and strengthen networks and ties with a range of international and indigenous leaders and communities. Together, they are holding international leaders and corporate interests to account for the local climate crisis unfolding all over the globe. It has been truly heartening to see local and indigenous leaders at the forefront of marches, protests, panel discussions, assemblies and workshops all across the city. Huge credit must be given to the organisers, who have created something special in really challenging circumstances.

But make no mistake; we are now past the eleventh hour, and nothing has yet been presented or suggested at this COP that will slash greenhouse gas emissions at the level the IPCC considers necessary to limit warming below 1.5 degrees. Nothing has been agreed that will stop future exploration for oil and gas, nor the full recovery of those reserves we already have— all of which has been deemed essential if we are to have a realistic chance of limiting warming. And not one big economy— those historically high-emitting, colonizer countries of industry and empire —has come close to affording climate justice or equity anywhere near the level of importance reserved for their own consumption, wealth, or short-term political needs.

As a Conference Of the Parties, this has been a failure on every level. The soon-to-beforgotten speeches, the non-binding, watered-down pledges have failed to limit the impacts of climate change, instead pandering to those interests served by delay and distraction, offsets and carbon trading, unrealized future tech solutions, and infinite ‘green growth.’

In short, it has been just like almost every other COP. I can’t wait for 27.

We can only hope that this last weekend spurs more protests, generates more pressure, and ultimately forces some positive and binding agreements from the big economic powers who bear responsibility for most of the emissions, the warming and the economic injustice that are fueling this crisis.

We can only hope.

References

Shankleman, J. and Dlouhy, J.A. (2021) ‘U.K. Rejects Alliance Seeking Fixed Date to End Oil and Gas’, Article on Bloomberg Green, 9th November. Accessed via: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2 021-11-09/u-k-rejects-alliance-seeking-fixeddate-on-fossil-fuelphaseout?sref=RBX8CMa6

Unattributed (2021) ‘Tuvalu Minister Gives COP26 Speech while Standing in the Sea’, video article, The Guardian online. Accessed via: https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2 021/nov/09/tuvalu-minister-gives-cop26speech-while-standing-in-the-sea-video