Share final presentation valeo, renault, edf, total by Himanshu

Tomorrow‟s car Report

9th Nov 2010

The project

Team – the work of 15 students from 4 countries and 7 prestigious universities

Project managers

Hugo

University of Porto

Suk

Korea University

Lakshmanan

IIIM-I

Isabella

SJTU

A 5 month project with several interactions with the coordinating partners

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Output 1: Government vision Output 2: Technology Output 3: Industrial players Output 4: Alternative clean transport solutions Output 5: Consumer survey Output 6: Opportunities of foreign players 17 June Review meeting

Kick-off 9th Nov

Formal presentation of outputs

6 outputs in 4 countries summarized in today presentation X 4 countries ( >500 slides) ~35 interviews of experts Output 1 Government vision Output 2 Technologies

“Tomorrow‟s car” Executive Presentation

9th November 2010

Today “Tomorrow‟s car” Executive Presentation

9th November 2010

~200 consumer surveyed

Output 3 Industrial players

Executive presentation (~100 slides)

“Tomorrow‟s car” Executive Presentation

9th November 2010

Output 4 Alternative clean transport solutions ~ 4 focus group discussion with students

Output 5 Consumer survey Output 6 Opportunities

“Tomorrow‟s car” Executive Presentation

9th November 2010

“Tomorrow‟s car” Executive Presentation

9th November 2010

“Tomorrow‟s car” Executive Presentation

9th November 2010

9 Interviews conducted â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mainly researchers and industrial players

Research centers and universities

Industrial players

Executive name Mr. Lin

Company/organization Beijing Institute of Technology Electric Vehicle Engineering Center

Designation Professor

Date 24-06-10

Mr. Huang Zheng

Institution of energy research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Professor

28-08-10

Mr. Professor Zhou Dadi

Institution of energy research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Professor

03-07-10

Mr. Shu Jie

Institute of Automotive Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Associate Professor

28-08-10

Mr. Wu Zhiwei

Institute of Automotive Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Battery Electric Vehicle Researcher

Mr. Zhen

State Grid Corporation of China

vice president

3-08-10 24-08-10

Mr. Chen

Shanghai Caoxi EV Charge Station

guard keeper

24-06-10

M r .Wu Hui

SAIC

PD engineer

28-08-10

M r . Wang Gang

SAIC

R & D department engineer

24-08-10

7 Interviews conducted – mainly researchers and industrial players

Research centers and universities

Executive name

Company/organization

Designation

Date

Roberto Schaeffer

UFRJ - Energy Planning Program (PPE – COPPE)

Professor – Energy Economics.;Member of IPCC and UNFCCC

20/08

Roberto Rodrigues

FGV-EESP; FIESP; UNESP - Jaboticabal

Minister of Agriculture (2003-2006); Professor and Coordinator of FGV’s Agrobusiness Center and Rural Economics Professor

25/08

Marcos Fava Neves

USP – FEA-RP

Professor – Admnistration; Expert on Agrobusiness sector

13/09

Leonardo Hotta

USP - EESC

Engineer – Master’s Thesis on Electric Public Transport

20/09

UFRJ (Hydrogen Lab COPPE)

Professor and coordinator of the Hydrogen Lab, where a hybrid hydrogen and electric bus was developed

Leonardo Gaudencio Cavaliere

Fiat Brazil

Supervisor of Product Innovations, FIAT. Part of BNDES electric vehicle workgroup in May

Ricardo Machado

Óbvio! Electric Cars

Founder and CEO

28/08

Paulo Emílio Miranda

Industrial players

14 Interviews conducted â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mainly researchers, government executives and industrial players

Executive name

Company/organization

Designation

Date

Institute of Research, Raigad

Head of Department

27-08-10

India Green Awareness Centre

Manager

14-08-10

Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur

Professor

7-08-10

Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi

Associate Professor

8-08-10

Mr Gaurav Kapoor

Confederation of Indian Industry

Executive

29-07-10

Mr. Saurav Shukla

Planning Commission of India

Senior Manager

26-07-10

Mr R R Gupta

Department of Heavy Industries

Senior Engineer

13-08-10

Ms. Aditi Dass

Winrock International India

Senior General Manager

6-08-10

Hyundai Motors India

Assistant Vice President

28-07-10

Mr. P D Shukla

Maruti Suzuki India

Deputy Manager

27-07-10

Mr. R Frederick

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd

Addl General Manager

2-08-10

Mr. Ashish Sharma

Tata Motors

Brand Manager

6-08-10

Mr. Shivam Agarwal

Hero India

Senior Engineer

9-9-10

Mr. R Venkatraman

Rabobank India Pvt Ltd

Relationship Manager

6-8-10

Mr. S.N Taklikar

Research centers and universities

Mr S V Lele Mr. Dattaji Shinde Mr. R Bokade

Government

Mr. Ranganathan

Industrial players

5 Interviews conducted in South Korea

Executive name

Company/organization

Mr. Joon Ho, Ko

Seoul Development Institute

Mr. Jung Hoon, Jo

The Korea Electric Times

Mr.Jae Hyung, Yoo

Korea Environment Corporation

Chel Que, Kim

Korean Electric and Power Corporation

Min Hyuk, Kim

Pusan National University graduate school

Project extract - confidential

Executive summary

Can not be shared outside ShARE Overall  China has taken the lead in Electric Car since a few years and is expected to make the electric car the “car of tomorrow” by 2020. South Korea is also investing a lot into this direction although consumers are not much aware and attracted by such vehicle. Brazil on the other hand has taken a strong stand on Bioefuel Car which is bound to be the car of tomorrow, although there are currently some debates within the government to look at Electric car as an alternative solution. In India, low cost car which has just been launched is expected to have a great success among Indian emerging middle class, electric and biofuel car may emerge only later. China  Around 20% of car produced are estimated to be electric by 2020 (HEV and BEV), mainly to reduce to oil dependency.  China has launched largest demo program in 13 Chinese cities in 2009 to test over 60 000 electric vehicles ( the program has been extended to 20 cities in 2010 and now 25 cities)  China Smart grid giant program will also contribute to further foster the integration of EV in 2020-2030 transport landscape. India  India has launched the first low cost with the Tana Nano addressing a potential market of 8 million bikes purchaser  Some experiments on Biofuel on „Jatropha‟ have been conducted, but pressure on food crop may lead the government to shift their focus to Electric car  Current infrastructure level will impede the progress of Electric Vehicle in India  Brazil  Biofuel car is already very present in today‟s automobile market, with 90% of car sold, and 50% of total fleet  Brazil thanks to its very clean electricity mix (>95% comes from new renewable) is one of the country who could really claim the “greenness” of Electric Car  Debates within the government is currently being held to think of Electric Car as a potential alternative, although Brazil is still very attached and proud of its biofuel industry that they wish to export abroad South Korea  South Korea Government has a clear roadmap to develop the Electric Vehicle and make South Korea a leading world player  Jeju Smart City program would also test integration of Electric Vehicle to grid and foster its development  Consumer surveyed revealed however that Koran are not aware or not yet attracted by the Electric Vehicle. Copyright ©2009 ShARE. All Rights Reserved

Key findings of „tomorrow‟s car‟ project 2010

2020

More advanced

2030

More advanced

Pioneer and leader

> 20% penetration

Electric car

Commercialization (<10% penetration) Pilot programs Fundamental research

> 20% penetration

Low cost car (< 3000 $)

Commercialization (<10% penetration)

First models Prototype

> 20% penetration

Bio fuel car

Around 200 consumers were surveyed, with distinct demographical differences Countries sample comparison

Middle-class, middle-aged sample

Average Age Household monthly Income Average in USD

 32 years

 34 years

 33 years

 41 years

 1 250 $ •Stand. Dev of 800 USD

 740 $ • Stand Dev. 180 USD

 2 700 $ • Stand. Dev of 2000 USD

 4 650 $ • Stand Dev. 1500 USD

Internet at home Car ownership

While China and India use more metro/train, Brazil and Korea use more the car What is the mode of transport you use more often? Averaged weights of all options in %

Metro/Train

Note: Calculations = (Σ frequency × Weight) /topic Weights used: First choice:4; Second: 3; Third: 2; Fourth: 1 Source: ShARE survey

Metro/Train

Car

But in all these countries the favourite mean of transport is the car Which mode of transport do you prefer? Averaged weights of all options in %

Car

Note: Calculations = (Σ frequency × Weight) /topic Weights used: First choice:4; Second: 3; Third: 2; Fourth: 1 Source: ShARE survey

Car

Car was the first preference for 38% of the sample

Metro/Train

Specially in the last decade, as after the introduction of the first flex fuel car in 2003 ethanol sales increased 5x Hydrated ethanol monthly sales in barrels CAGR Mar2003 - Jun2010 Ethanol accounts for more than 50% of current light vehicle fuel demand. This is expected to increase to over 80 % by 2020

26.4%

Price‟s liberalization

Introduction of the first flex-fuel car: VW Gol

Higher ethanol prices (caused by poorer crops due to bad climatic conditions) made people to chose gasoline at the gas stations as it is only economical to buy ethanol when it costs <70% of gas

Biofuel cars get more fiscal incentives than gasoline cars or Electric Vehicles Automotive market fiscal paradigm in 2009/2010

IPI – Tax on industrial property

Biofuel Cars (flex)

HEV

BEV

7%-18%

12%

25%

Practically all flex cars are home made

II – Tax on imports ICMS – Tax on the circulation of goods and services IPVA – Tax on automotive vehicles property

35%

12%

Plans to reduce the IPI

35%

35% Praticaly all EVs have to be imported

12% Only 10 states out of 27 have this incentive

3%-4% 1000 to 2000cc

Total share in consumer price

Gasoline Cars

29.2%

< 2000cc

33.1%

12% 0%-3%

on 10 states.

in the others

12%

in the others

1000 to 2000cc

30.4%

> 2000cc

33.4% 16

Due to Brazil‟s energy matrix, the usage of EV has lower CO2 emissions than in other countries Electricity generation emissions country comparison in 2007 Carbon intensity - kg of CO2 emitted per megawatt-hour of electricity generated Brazil is also the BRIC with lowest emissions

551 kg is the world‟s average

This means that in Brazil electric cars will be more environment friendly

>75% of Brazil‟s electricity comes from hydropower

50 kg is Brazil‟s average

Note: There have been noticed of small inaccuracies in the data, which don't affect the general picture of the comparison, Copyright ©2009 ShARE. All Rights Reserved Source: Carbon Monitoring for Action databas, cllected by „Lightbucket‟

China will experiment 3 different business models at the same time in the 13 20 pilot cities Short-term

Mid-term

Long-term

Model 1: PHEV

Model 2: BEV

Model 3: HFCV

Business models

 Plug-in HEV with batteries recharged at home or service stations, a transition option from HEV to BEV

 BEV with battery switch and leasing service as major recharging method

 Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, a long-term option that calls for decline of cost

Electricity distribution system

 Battery recharged at home or service stations

 Battery switch and leasing service as major recharging methods

 To build adding hydrogen stations and supply HFCV with hydrogen

 Ion battery  Charging equipment network load

 Ion battery  Battery switch technology and leasing system

 Fuel cell technology  Safety & cold weather starting  Production & storage of H2

Key enabling technologies

and

R&D programs

 863 program/HEV  973 program/HEV  State Grid program/BEV

 863 program/BEV  973 program/BEV  State Grid program/BEV

 863 program/FCV  973 program/FCV

Industrial players

 BYD: FD3M  SAIC, CHERY& FOTON

 BYD  Tianjin Qingyuan  Wanxiang  Fiscal subsidies in 13 20 pilot cities: up to 8,800 USD per BEV car  Fiscal subsidies in 5 pilot cities : up to 8 862 $.per BEV

 SAIC, cooperating Tongji Univ.

Fiscal and regulation policies

 Fiscal subsidies in 13 20 pilot cities: up to 7,400 USD per HEV car  Fiscal subsidies in 5 pilot cities : up to 7 385 $.per PHEV

Note: PHEV- Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; BEV- battery/pure electric vehicle; HFCV- hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT); Roland Berger Copyright ©2009 ShARE. All Rights Reserved

with

 Fiscal subsidies in 13 20 pilot cities: up to 36,700 USD per HFCV car

Although Beijing was the first city to experiment rental bicycle, Shanghai has the most ambitious plan In progress City

Start Time

Anticipated Goal

Charging Standard

Shanghai

2008.9

2000~3000 stations ~200000 bicycles

Free within 2 hours 1~2Yuan per exceeded hour

Hangzhou

2008.4

1000 stations 50000 bicycles

Beijing

2007.8

1000 stations 50000 bicycles

Wuhan

2009.4

1300 stations 50000 bicycles

Free within 1 hour 1 Yuan for per exceeded hour

Free within 2 hours 2 Yuan per exceeded hour Huhehot Municipality Taiyuan Free within 1 hour

Piloting

Beijing

Yantai

Hefei

Nanjing

2010.6

100 stations 6000 bicycles

Chengdu Free within 1 hour 1 Yuan for every exceeded hour Zunyi

Chengdu

2020.8

100 stations 5000 bicycles

Free within 2 hours Kunming

100 stations 15000 bicycles

Free within 2 hours 1 Yuan for every 2 exceeded hours

500 stations 15000 bicycles

Free with 1 hour 1 Yuan per hour for 2~4 hours 2 Yuan per hour for more than 4 hours

1000stations 20000 bicycles

Free in 0.5 hour 1 Yuan for 1.5 hours 2 Yuan per hour for exceeded 1.5 hours

Kunming

2010.5

Ningbo

2011

Haikou

2010

…… Source: Ningbo Evening News ,Chinanews.net

Tangshan

Nanjing Shanghai

Wuha n Changsha

Ningbo Hangzhou Fuzhou

Guilin Zhuhai HaiKou

SanYa

The launch of these low cost cars expected to be in the next two years to compete with the Tata Nano 2009 1 2

2010

2011

2012

Maruti-Suzuki Positions Alto Launch of A-Star in the to compete with the Nano Mini Car Segment Hyundai plans to launch a low cost car at $ 3500 by the end of 2011

Hyundai launches i10 and i20 in the small car segment

Rollout from new plant at Sanand is expected to triple its sales of Nano

Launch of the Tata Nano

Bajaj â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Renault are expected to launch a Low cost car

Renault & Nissan roll out the Micra from their plant in Chennai

Toyota expected to expand its capacity to launch a car in the small car segment in 2011 Skoda plans to launch its cheapest car by 2012

Skoda introduces the Fabia in India GM Launches Chevrolet Beat and Spark in the small car segment

GM plans to launch Chevrolet Cruz in 2011

Launch of the Polo from their plant in Chakan Fiat launches the Punto in the small car segment

Fiat to launch Bravo by the end of 2011

Leading players

3 states have indigenous Biofuel Development Boards in India which are based on Jatropha plantation State having indigenous Biofuel Development Boards

Action/Policy/Initiative

Uttaranchal

 Uttaranchal Biofuel Board created to coordinate biofuel activities.  Plantation of Jatropha is being taken up on un-irrigated degraded forestland • Plantation during 2004-05: 360 Ha • Plantation during 2005-06:10,000 Ha • Plantation planned till 2012: 200,000 Ha  State Government signed agreement with private company to process 600,000 tonnes of Jatropha seeds to bio-diesel

Chattisgarh

 Biofuel development authority from 26th January, 2005 under the Chattisgarh Renewable Energy Development Agency  80 million Jatropha seedlings planted during 2005  Target for 2006 - 160 million Jatropha seedlings  Most of these plantations are on government wasteland and fallow land  Pilot demonstration plantation in 300 acres of land of farmers in each district

Madhya Pradesh

Source: Report “Assessment of Biofuels in India” presented in United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

The Government is keen to promote Jatropha cultivation at a substantial scale in the State • Has identified 2000 hectares of land in various clusters across the States for plantation • Estimated to yield around 50,000 tonnes of crude jatropha oil per annum • Proposes to establish a biodiesel production unit on a pilot scale in the State • The Plant would have the biodiesel production capacity of 30 tonnes per day

In August 2010, Hyundai i10, first BEV in Korea, started to be distributed to public sector for trial with others to follow Upcoming 3 EVs in Korea market

Hyundai i10

i10

Venga

Fluence Z.E

Hyundai

KIA

Samsung

Time to market

2011

2012

Type

BEV

Quick : 30 min. Full : 7 hours.

Quick : 20 Min Full : 8 Hours

Quick :15~30min Full : 5~8 hours

24 Kwh LIPB

22 Kwh LIPB

160 Km / fully charged battery

150 Km / fully charged battery

160 Km / fully charged battery

Manufacturer

Charging time

KIA Venga

Samsung Fluence Z.E Hyundai∙KIA EV Producing Roadmap

Battery type Driving distance

Maximum speed Motor

130 Km/h

140 Km/h

130 Km/h

50 Kw

80 Kw

70 Kw

2010. 8

i10 distribution to public sector for trial

Late 2010

YF Sonata Hybrid release in US

2011

2012

Source: KECO, Ministry of Envirionment, ShARE team analysis

High-speed EV manufacturing in small volume K5 Hybrid release Common use of Plug-in Hybrid FCEV manufacturing in small volume

Students at Korea University were concerned about better traffic environment, not really aware of various options Most of the students felt that the traditional car would be the car of tomorrow while most of them are expecting not much change



Traditional cars are thought to be the car of tomorrow since they are not really aware of other options “Car of tomorrow will be just traditional car I think. 10 years from now on is not that far future, and EV is not that popular in Korea yet.” - Joo Yeon, Lee “Even though there will be other concepts of cars, I don‟t think people will be interested in changing their driving habit.” - Dong Chan, Won Some said EV and other concept cars have possibility to become the future car, but under hard efforts of government and maturity of market “If it‟s 2050 maybe, it will be EV or biofuel, etc. But in case of 2020 in Korea, not much change in mainstream car will happen.” - In Kyu, Shin “here will be EV on the other side. Of course it will be dependent on government‟s effort. But traditional car and EV will be the main cars in 2020/” - Won Chan, Park

Almost all students considered that the city of tomorrow will have better public transportation and less traffic jam 



A lot of emphasis was placed on public transport “The city of tomorrow will have better, but cleaner transportation“ - Joo Yeon, Lee “less transformational incomfortness“ - In Kyu, Shin “I hope the city of tomorrow have better public transportation system. In Seoul, when traffic jam starts, even bus and taxis are also in the jam, though buses have their own line. I hope at least public transportation can be free of traffic jam. ” - Dong Chan, Won “The city of tomorrow in 2020 will have better public transportation” - - Won Chan, Park Other popular thoughts are about less traffic jam in the street “Also, I really hope that terrible traffic jam in certain time zone will be eliminated” - - Won Chan, Park

Some photos

Meeting in the morning

Lunch and before entering the Technocentre

Evening â&#x20AC;&#x201C; after the hard work

Hugo, Isabella, Lakshmanan 2am in the morning before the final presentation

Hugo, Isabella, Lakshmanan after the presentation, sight seeing