MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE — JUNE 2022 EDITION
T
his past May has been the first month in our Greater Victoria Area real estate market where we have seen a significant shift in trends. A total of 761 properties sold in our region this May, 27.5% fewer than this time last year and a 7.6% drop from April 2022. This, in contrast to over 1,770 active listings for sale which is up over 30% from April. This correction is made even more apparent with the absorption rate climbing from 1.7 to 2.2 months of inventory in a single month. Between 5 and 6 months of inventory is considered by experts as a balanced market; however, we have for the last 16 months experienced absorption rates below 2 months of inventory, a very strong “Seller’s Market”. With this softening of sales numbers, increasing interest
Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000
2500
1776
2000
1500
1000
761
500
0
Active Listings
rates, increasing listings inventory, and increasing absorption rates, we will without a doubt start to see some return to normalcy, some return to balance, here in our local market.
Absorption Rate
6
5.7
Months of Inventory
Greater Victoria Area - (2019-2022) 5.3
5.1
4.7
5
4.7
4.6
4
4.2
5.6 5.2 4.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.3 4.0
2 1
2.8
1.9
2.2
1.8 1.6
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.4 2.2
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
December
November
October
2022
1.4
September
2021
1.3
August
July
2020
June
2019
2.0 1.6
May
April
March
February
January
0
3.7
3.5
3
Number of Sales
Market transitions are rarely uniform. This is more than apparent when we examine the absorption rates for various price brackets. In the luxury market, the absorption rate for property between 2 and 3 million has jumped from 0.2 months of inventory in April, to 2.69 months of inventory in May. Above 3 million, the absorption rate has jumped from 3.67 months of inventory in April to 6.83 months of inventory in May. In Saanich East specifically, the absorption
2481 BEACON AVENUE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 | 1-877-656-0911 REACHUS@HOLMESREALTY.COM | WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM When you buy or sell a home with Holmes Realty, a portion of the commission goes in support of local charities. Over $250,000 raised!
The highest priced sale during May 2022 was in Uplands, Oak Bay. An approximately 12,000 sq.ft. home which sold for just under 13.2 million dollars. The lowest priced freehold, non-strata, non-manufactured, property was an 820 sq.ft. home in the Gorge area selling for $750,000. Transitional markets are some of the most challenging for consumers, whether buying or selling, to navigate. It’s more important than ever to have an expert on your side.
May 2022
8
6.83
7
6
Months of Inventory
The benchmark price for a single family home in April of this year was $1,272,400. May saw the benchmark increase to $1,294,600 in the Greater Victoria Area. An increase, yet, not as significant as the month-to-month growth seen in the past. On the Peninsula, the benchmark for single family homes was $1,359,200 up from $1,327,500 in April.
Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range
4.67
5
4
4.00 2.69
3
1.72 1.32 1.51
2
1
0
Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached May 2022
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.00
Months of Inventory
rate for property above 3 million dollars is now at an unbelievable 22 months of inventory! Absorption rates between 800 thousand and 2 million have also seen a significant increase; however, in that range, absorption rates between 1.32 and 1.51 are still strongly considered “Seller’s Market” territory with property taking on average one and a half to two weeks to sell.
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
1.29 0.85 0.82
1.04 0.99
1.13
1.32 1.10
0.96 1.00 0.94
0.85
0.50
0.45
0.00
2481 BEACON AVENUE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 | 1-877-656-0911 REACHUS@HOLMESREALTY.COM | WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM When you buy or sell a home with Holmes Realty, a portion of the commission goes in support of local charities. Over $250,000 raised!
Absorption Rate 5.7
6
5.3
5.1
Months of Inventory
Greater Victoria Area - (2019-2022)
4.7
5
4.7
4.6
4
4.2
5.6 5.2 4.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.3 4.0 3.7
3.5 2.8
3 1.9
2
1
1.8 1.6
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.4 2.2
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
December
November
October
2022
1.4
September
2021
1.3
August
2020
1.3
July
June
2019
2.0 1.6
May
April
March
February
January
0
2.2
Monthly Sales Comparison Greater Victoria - (2019-2022) 1400
Number of Sales
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2019
329
421
640
696
848
740
706
661
616
619
577
402
2020
411
563
608
287
457
808
979
979
989
990
795
631
2021
646
863
1173
1116
1049
942
835
831
761
745
653
438
2022
474
718
833
824
761
Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Active Listings
Number of Sales
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME $10
$9
$8
$7
BILLIONS
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached May 2022
5.00
4.50
4.50
Months of Inventory
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.29 0.85 0.82
1.04 0.99
1.13
1.32 1.10
0.96 1.00 0.94
0.85 0.45
Absorption Rates - Condominiums May 2022
4.00
Months of Inventory
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.38
1.35
1.50
1.17 1.00
1.00
0.89 0.67
0.50
0.00
1.11 0.77
0.92
0.77
0.90
Absorption Rates - Townhouses May 2022
4.50
4.13
Months of Inventory
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.64 1.50
1.30
1.29
1.26
1.05
1.04 1.00
0.50
0.00
0.80
NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS
1.19
1.11
Absorption Rates - Manufactured Homes May 2022
5.00
4.50
4.50
Months of Inventory
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.40
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.20
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.75 0.33
Absorption Rates - Saanich Peninsula May 2022 2
1.64 1.32 1.30
1.10 1.11 1
0.85
0
0.92
n/a
n/a
SINGLE FAMILY CONDOS
TOWNHOMES
North Saanich
Sidney
Central Saanich
Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range May 2022
7
6.33
Months of Inventory
6
5
4
3
2.71
2.31
2
1.38 1.24
1
0
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
NO SALES PAST 3 MONTHS
Under $600K
$600K to $800K
0.00 0.00 $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range May 2022
4
Months of Inventory
3
3.00
2
1.50 0.79
1
0
1.50
Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
0.56 0.59 0.57
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range
Months of Inventory
May 2022
24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
22.00
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
0.00 0.00 Under $600K
1.88 1.18 1.27
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
2.68 $2M to $3M
Over $3M
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range May 2022
5
4.20
4
Months of Inventory
4 3 3 2 2
0.92
1 1 0
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
1.13 0.70
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range May 2022
13
12.00
12
10.20
11
Months of Inventory
10 9 8 7 6 5 4
3.00
3 2 1 0
0.73
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.00 Under $600K
2.63
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
1.52 $1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Colwood Absorption Rates by Price Range May 2022
10
9.00
9
Months of Inventory
8 7 6 5 4
3.00
3
1.50
2 1 0
3.00 1.83
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO SALES IN PAST 3 MONTHS
0.00 Under $600K
0.00 $600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Metchosin Absorption Rates by Price Range May 2022
2
1.80
Months of Inventory
1.50
1
0.50
0
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO SALES LAST 3 MONTHS
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO SALES LAST 3 MONTHS
0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
0.00 $1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range May 2022
8
6.83
7
Months of Inventory
6
4.67
5
4
4.00 2.69
3
1.72 1.51 1.32
2
1
0
Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M