VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2020 FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW MICHELE HOLMES • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
Š 2020, Holmes Realty Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this work covered by the publisher’s copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means (including but not limited to graphic, electronic or mechanical) without the written permission of the publisher.
2020 FIRST QUARTER First quarter 2020 started with the market roughly in line with our 2018 sales numbers.
Coming out of the tradi-
tionally slower winter months, in January & February we recorded 411 & 563 sales respectively. A significant improvement over 2019 numbers for these months. However March sales numbers underperformed the same time period both 2018 & 2019 with only 603 sales compared to 688 in 2018 and 640 in 2019. The average absorption rate in the Greater Victoria Area during Q1 was roughly 4.4 months of inventory.
This
could be considered a fairly balanced market overall, and at the end of the quarter was trending downwards toward a Seller’s Market at 4.2 months total of inventory. The total sales volume at the end of 2019 was approximately 4.93 Billion dollars. The total sales volume of this past first quarter was approximately 1.14 Billion dollars. This is about 23% of last years total sales volume and certainly a respectable number. Additionally, the beginning of 2020 has been an environment conducive to lending; interest rates are low, and the Federal Government has, up until very recently considered relaxing some requirements of the mortgage stress test.
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME
MICHELE HOLMES
$7
DEBRA BARTLETT & ERIN MACKENZIE
$6
$5
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$4
$3
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM $2
First Quarter
2020
$1
$0
Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range
ACTIVEMarch 2020 LISTINGS
25
21.75
5500 5000
20
4500
Months of Inventory
4000
14.77
3500
15
3000 2500
10
2000
Under $600K
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Oct-2019
2019
Dec-2019
Jun-2019
Aug-2019
Apr-2019
Feb-2019
Oct-2018
2018
Dec-2018
Jun-2018
Aug-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2017
Aug-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Aug-2016
Apr-2016
4.58
Feb-2016
Oct-2015
2015 3.11
Dec-2015
Jun-2015
Aug-2015
Apr-2015
1.97
Feb-2015
Oct-2014
2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2014
Aug-2014
Apr-2014
Feb-2014
Oct-2013
Dec-2013
Jun-2013
2013
1.72
0
Aug-2013
Apr-2013
Feb-2013
5
Dec-2012
1000
Apr-2017
6.23
1500
Over $3M
The high-end component of our Victoria inventory remained affected by last years Provincial measures to reduce foreign buyers to cool what was considered an overheated market. What we have started to notice through Q1 is an increasing demand for high-end property in the 1M to 2M price range. However, absorption rates based on price range continue to show a distinct gap when observing sales of the ultra high end component over 2M.
Benchmark prices for a single family home have changed slightly throughout the fourth quarter of 2019. The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $774,900 at the end of Q1. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $877,700 at the end of Q1. The benchmark was $665,200 in Westshore, and $795,300 on the Peninsula. Compared to the same period in 2019, benchmark prices have experienced increases in all four principal regions in the Greater Victoria Area.
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q1-2019 to Q1-2020 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
Adding labels
HPI or Benchmark Price HPI Benchmark Price
BENCHMARK PRICES
1. Area Group
Hold Ctrl (Cmd) and select points on the chart to show multiple date/value labels
2. Property Type
VREB Area Summary
3. Area/Property Type Selection
Single Family-All (SF-All)
– Victoria REB – SF-All
Benchmark Price Performance over Time Select Date Range: January 2014 to March 2020 and Null values
Single Family Benchmark Prices March 2020 $774,900
March 2018 $745,300
750,000
March 2019 $736,000
Benchmark Price ($)
700,000
March 2017 $671,500
650,000
600,000
March 2016 $571,800
550,000
Adding labels
HPI or Benchmark Price HPI March 2015 Benchmark Price
March 2014 $495,900
500,000
Hold Ctrl (Cmd) and select points on the chart to show multiple date/value labels
Apr 2020
Oct 2019
Apr 2019
– Victoria REB – Twn
Oct 2018
3. Area/Property Type Selection
Apr 2018
Oct 2017
Apr 2017
Oct 2016
Townhouse (Twn)
Apr 2016
2. Property Type
Oct 2015
Apr 2015
Oct 2014
VREB Area Summary
Apr 2014
1. Area Group
Oct 2013
$507,300
Benchmark Price Performance over Time
Townhouse Benchmark Prices Select Date Range: January 2014 to March 2020 and Null values
Victoria REB – SF-All
March 2019 $601,600
600,000 Note: Areas with insufficient data do not generate statistics and are not included in the dashboard.
March 2020 $604,100
Source: Victoria Real Estate Board March 2018 $568,700
500,000 March 2017 $492,100 March 2016 $436,400 March 2015 HPI or Benchmark Price $403,500
Apr 2020
Oct 2019
Apr 2019
– Victoria REB – Con
Oct 2018
3. Area/Property Type Selection
Apr 2018
Condo Apartment (Con)
Oct 2016
2. Property Type
Hold Ctrl (Cmd) and select points on the chart to show multiple date/value labels
Apr 2016
Apr 2015
Oct 2014
VREB Area Summary
Apr 2014
1. Area Group
Adding labels
HPI Benchmark Price
Oct 2017
March 2014 $396,200
Oct 2013
400,000
Apr 2017
450,000
Oct 2015
Benchmark Price ($)
550,000
Benchmark Price Performance over Time Select Date Range: January 2014 to March 2020 and Null values
Condominium Benchmark Prices Victoria REB – Twn
March 2020 $521,300 March 2018 $491,900
Note: Areas with insufficient data do not generate statistics and are not included in the dashboard. 500,000
March 2019 $498,300
450,000 March 2017 $409,300 400,000
350,000
March 2016 $332,500
Apr 2020
Oct 2019
Apr 2019
Oct 2018
Apr 2018
Oct 2017
Apr 2017
Oct 2016
Apr 2016
Apr 2015
Oct 2014
Oct 2013
Apr 2014
March 2014 $291,200
300,000
March 2015 $304,500
Oct 2015
Benchmark Price ($)
Source: Victoria Real Estate Board
Victoria REB – Con
Overall, benchmark prices have been trending upwards Note: Areas with insufficient data do not generate statistics and are not included in the dashboard.
through the past year. While these increases don’t comSource: Victoria Real Estate Board
pare with the stunning growth seen through 2016 and 2017, the cooling measures, speculation tax and foreign buyers tax have in large part accounted for this. From this we could infer that the increases seen over the past year are a much healthier and natural appreciation.
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
Similar to last quarter, sales of property above the listed price occurred on 23% of Single Family Detached sales during Q1. Additionally, a further 16% of Single Family Detached home sales this past quarter were at list price. 61% of sales in Q1 were under the list price.
During Q1, 64% of the homes sold in the Greater Victoria Area sold above their BCA assessed values. Of the 658 single family sales in Q1 of 2020, only 4 were at their assessed value amounting to less that 1% of sales.
SALES OVER ASSESSED VALUE
OVER BCA ASSESSED VALUE
AT BCA ASSESSED VALUE
BELOW BCA ASSESSED VALUE
While 2020 started out much like any other year, the latter half of March started to see our activity greatly impacted by the Social Distancing necessary to slow the devastating spread of COVID-19. Our industry, and our market, will certainly be impacted by these unprecedented times. While the statistics included in this report for last quarter are fairly optimistic, we will most certainly through the next quarter experience a significant decrease in sales numbers compared to previous years. These are uncertain times and while we have every confidence that we will see sales numbers recover when restrictions are lifted, it is extremely difficult to estimate when that will happen.
Absorption Rate Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area ‐ (2017‐2020)
7
Months of Inventory
6
5.7 5.3
5.1
4.7
5 4
4.6 4.2
4.3
4.1
4.3
3.4
4.0 4.0
3.9
3.1
3
4.1
4.1
4.2 4.0
2.3
2.4
2.3 2.1
December
November
October
2020
4.3
3.7
September
2019
2.1
August
2018
July
2017
June
March
February
2.5
May
2.4
2.5
April
2.3
2.5
2.2
4.2
3.6
2.5
January
1
3.8
2.7 2.3
2
3.9
4.0
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates ‐ Single Family Detached March 2020
8.00
6.75
7.00
Months of Inventory
6.00
5.57
5.40
5.32
5.00
4.42
4.00
3.50
3.10
3.65
3.31
3.00
2.89
2.47
2.85 2.83
1.96
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
Absorption Rates ‐ Townhouses
Absorption Rates ‐ Condominiums March 2020
March 2020
33.00
12.00
13.50
14.00
10.50 10.00
9.00
9.71
10.00
7.64
8.00
6.00
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
12.00
5.12
5.14
5.57 4.64
4.00
2.62
2.76
3.55
8.00
6.75 6.00
4.00
3.47 2.00
2.00
0.00
3.60
3.47
4.60
4.06
0.00
1.50
1.29 0.00
1.60
1.89 1.00
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range
Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range
March 2020
March 2020
25
22.50
15
10.20
10
7.71
5
1.20 0
Under $600K
3.00 $600K to $800K
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
20
4.71 1.73 $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
21.00
6.00
6.00 1.64
Under $600K
$600K to $800K
Finally, if there is a possible silver lining in
2.81
3.64 NO SALES IN PAST 3
MONTHS 0.00 $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
March 2020
30
some semblance of normalcy returns to our
25
industry and our lives, we should be in an a great degree of security in our local real estate market from both an economic and investment standpoint. The fact remains,
21.00 Months of Inventory
There is
people will always want to buy, sell and live
20
15
10.00
10
5
here where we call home, in the most beau0
tiful place in Canada.
NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS Under $600K
$600K to $800K
$1M to $1.5M
8.57
13
9.00
$1.5 to $2M
12.00
12
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
12.00
11
8
10
7
9
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
$800K to $1M
5.18
March 2020
10
6 5
3.38
4 3
4.09
8 7
0.00
0.00
Under $600K
$600K to $800K
5.79
5
3 2
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
5.52
6
4
2.10
2
0
3.60
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range
March 2020
1
3.91 1.05
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
9
Over $3M
Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range
the future, once the virus stabilizes, once
excellent position for recovery.
$2M to $3M
1.24
1.27
NO SALES IN PAST 3
1
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
0 $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
MONTHS 0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Michele Holmes
Debra Bartlett & Erin Mackenzie
ARE YOU THINKING OF WAITING UNTIL THE SPRING TO LIST YOUR HOME? YOU MIGHT BE MAKING A MISTAKE. During the winter months there are fewer homes on the market, less competition, and buyers are more motivated.
Deanna
Clayton
David
IF YOU’D LIKE TO DISCUSS MARKETING YOUR HOME, WE’D BE HAPPY TO HELP!
250-656-0911 • MichelesTeam@HolmesRealty.com The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
This publication is protected by international copyright © 2020 Holmes Realty Ltd.