VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2021 FIRST QUARTER IN REVIEW HOLMES REALTY • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
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2021 FIRST QUARTER The first quarter of 2021 has truly been an unprecedented period for Real Estate here in the Greater Victoria Area. This last quarter has seen our housing supply flatline while sales numbers have skyrocketed. This limited supply and overwhelming demand is a sea-change from this same time last year which saw the start of the pandemic and perhaps some of the lowest sales numbers ever. The average number of sales in March before 2020 was 715. This past March closed with nearly 1,200 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region. Annual volume is markedly higher this past quarter compared to the same period last year. With 1.49 Billion dollars worth of Real Estate transactions this past quarter versus only 1.14 Billion in Q1 of 2020, this represents a 30% increase in annual volume. Lack of inventory and intense demand have contributed to strong price support among all our property types and neighbourhoods. The quarter ended with 1,173 properties having sold in March 2021 and only 1,310 active residential listings available.
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME (TOTAL VALUE IN BILLIONS OF YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS) HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME
$7
$6
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
$5
$4
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$3
$2
First Quarter
$1
2021
$0
Absorption Rate ACTIVE LISTINGS
Greater Victoria Area - (2018-2021)
7 5500
6
5.7
Months of Inventory
5000 4500
5.3
5.1
5.6
4.7
5
5.2
4000 3500
4
4.2
4.3
3.4
3000
4.3
4.1
4.7
4.6
4.0
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.1
2500
3
4.0
3.6
3.5
2.7
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.0
3.7
2.8
2.5
2000
Oct-2019
Dec-2019
Jun-2019
Aug-2019
Apr-2019
Feb-2019
Oct-2018
Dec-2018
Jun-2018
Aug-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2017
Aug-2017
Apr-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Aug-2016
Apr-2016
Feb-2016
Oct-2015
Dec-2015
Jun-2015
Aug-2015
Apr-2015
Feb-2015
Oct-2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2014
Aug-2014
20191.6 December
Feb-2014
2.0
November
2021
2018 October
2020
September
2019
2017 August
2018
2016
July
Oct-2013
2015
June
Dec-2013
2.2
May
Jun-2013
2014
2.4
April
Aug-2013
2013
March
Apr-2013
1.8
February
Feb-2013
1.9
January
1
Dec-2012
1000
Apr-2014
1.5
2
1500
The absorption rate through Q1-2021 continued to drop after a slight up-tick in January, down to 1.5 months of available inventory. Demand for quality, well-priced homes, continues to vastly out-pace supply. An absorption rate between 5 and 6 is generally considered to be a balanced market.
Currently, we are experiencing an unprecedentedly
strong Seller’s Market across the entire board area, however depending on price-points, neighbourhoods and property types, certain homes can see absorptions rates far lower than 1.5 months.
Q1 continued to see demand for high-end homes improve with the absorption rate for property in the 1M to 3M range dropping considerably. Mid-ranged homes 750 to 1M continue to remain in the highest demand. Benchmark prices for a single family home have increased on average by 2.1% throughout the Greater Victoria Area during the first quarter. The Saanich Peninsula specifically experienced a 2.0% increase in benchmark prices. The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $868,700 at the end of Q1. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $968,700 at the end of Q1. The
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q4-2020 to Q1-2021 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices
Townhouse Benchmark Prices
Condominium Benchmark Prices
benchmark was $746,300 in Westshore, and $931,300 on the Peninsula. At the time of writing, there were only 394 single family homes available for sale in the Victoria Area. What is most telling about our current market, is that of those 394, only 84 are priced below $850,000. During the last quarter, A remarkable 54% of homes sold
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
were over their MLS listed price, and a further 18% sold at their listed price. Almost a full three quarters of the reported MLS sales were at, or above their listed price. During Q1 multiple, competing offers was the norm and buyer fatigue was a key issue facing our representatives. There is a limit to how many offer competitions a buyer is willing to lose before wanting to pause their search and wait for the market to cool.
Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Active Listings
Number of Sales
When reviewing absorption rates by price range, we see the true market demand for property in the under 1M price range. With only 0.69 months of inventory for homes between 800K and 1M and 0.69 months of inventory for homes between 600K and 800K. The lack of inventory in the most popular price range is apparent, with houses in the 600K to 800K prices ranges selling almost immediately. Luxury properties continue follows a similar trend, with property under 3M selling quickly.
Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range March 2021
5
4.13
4
Months of Inventory
4 3 3
2.03
2 2 1
0.86
1.07
1.16 0.69 0.79
1 0
Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached March 2021
1.60
1.50 1.43
Months of Inventory
1.40
1.20
1.09 1.00
0.95
0.92 0.83 0.84
0.82 0.80
0.80
0.58
0.60
0.86
0.64 0.52 0.43
0.40
0.20
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
Absorption Rates - Condominiums
March 2021
March 2021
3.50
2.50
2.17
3.00
3.00
1.89 1.62
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.93
1.21 0.91
0.43
0.50
0.23
3.00
1.91
0.51
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
2.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.38
1.36
1.29 1.03
1.00
0.75 0.50
0.13 0.00
1.36
1.29
0.00
0.00
0.75
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range
Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range March 2021
March 2021
5
12
4.50
10
4
9
3.00
3
2.40 2
1.62 1.11
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
10.50
11
0.43
7 6 5 4 3
0.71
1
8
1 0 Under $600K
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
1.50 1.06 1.29 0.71 1.00
2
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
0
LISTINGS 0.00 NO ACTIVE
Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
7.00
7
6
Months of Inventory
meet their needs immediately, and ensure
Over $3M
March 2021
however remains, where will they move to?
enced Realtor who can identify homes that
$2M to $3M
8
nity for Sellers to list their homes. The issue
ploy the services of an attentive and experi-
$1.5 to $2M
Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range
2021 continues to be an incredible opportu-
Now more than ever Buyers need to em-
$1M to $1.5M
5
4
3
1.93
2
prospective Buyers have a chance to view
0.50
1
and write an offer.
0
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.00 Under $600K
0.94 0.71 0.71
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range
March 2021
March 2021
6
13
5.25
12.00
12 11
5
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
10 4
3
2
1.44
0
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
6
5.00
5 4
1
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
7
2
0.00 0.00 Under $600K
8
3.00
3
0.75 0.90 0.71
1
9
1.20 1.02
0.45 0.55
0 Under $600K $1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
IT’S EASY TO BE INTIMIDATED BY VICTORIA’S MARKET! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask about our strategies designed to protect both Buyers & Sellers in our challenging market. WE’D LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU! Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L 1X9
250-656-0911 ReachUs@HolmesRealty.com WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
This publication is protected by international copyright © 2021 Holmes Realty Ltd.