VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE 2020 FOURTH QUARTER IN REVIEW PAUL MACRIS • 2481 BEACON AVE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 • WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM • 250.656.0911
2020 FOURTH QUARTER With 2020 officially behind us, we end what has proven to be one of the most remarkable years in history for real estate in the Greater Victoria Area. Last year’s first quarter was quite ordinary. Much like any other year, sales numbers started to gain momentum as spring approached. Then, in April, COVID-19 changed everything. As businesses shut down, stay-at-home orders came into force and uncertainty was the theme. Sales plummeted to a low of only 287 for the month of April. This was the lowest monthly sales number since December of 2008. As the year progressed, that changed. Our industry was able to adapt to selling homes in this new climate. Numbers quickly recovered with Q3 and Q4 recording the strongest fall / end-of-year market ever. Buyer demand has been incredibly strong through this period, and supply is at record lows. This in turn reinforced property values, making full-price or over-asking competing offers common place. The total sales volume at the end of 2020 broke another record. Approximately 6.53 Billion dollars of real estate sold last year; our highest annual volume ever.
HISTORICAL VOLUME HISTORICALANNUAL ANNUAL VOLUME $7
PAUL MACRIS
WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM
$5
$4
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$6
$3
$2
Fourth Quarter
$1
2020
$0
Absorption Rate ACTIVE LISTINGS
Greater Victoria Area - (2017-2020)
7 5500
6
5.7 5.3
5.1
5.6
4.7
5
5.2
4000
4.2
4.3
3.4
4.0
3.9
2.5 2.3
2000 2.5
2.5
2.1
2.4
Oct-2018
Dec-2018
Jun-2018
Aug-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2017
Aug-2017
Apr-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Feb-2016
Oct-2015
Dec-2015
Jun-2015
Aug-2015
Apr-2015
Feb-2015
Oct-2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2014
Aug-2014
Apr-2014
Feb-2014
Oct-2013
1.6
2019
December
Dec-2013
2.0
November
Jun-2013
2018 October
2020
September
2019
2017 August
2018
July
2017
2016
June
Aug-2013
2015 May
April
Apr-2013
2014 March
Feb-2013
2013
February
Dec-2012
2.2
Oct-2019
2.4
2.3
2.1
Dec-2019
2.3
January
1
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
Jun-2019
2
1500
3.7
2.8
Aug-2019
3
4.0
3.6
3.5
2.7
4.1
4.2
4.1
3.8
3.1
2500
1000
3.9
4.3
4.2
4.0
Apr-2019
4
3000
4.0
Feb-2019
3500
4.3
4.1
4.7
4.6
Aug-2016
4500
Apr-2016
Months of Inventory
5000
December 2020 ended with only 1,318 active residential listings available.
The strong sales in the last quarter, coupled with the lack of
inventory has pushed our absorption rate down to a remarkable 1.6 months of available inventory. Demand for quality, well-priced homes, vastly outweighs supply. An absorption rate between 5 and 6 is generally considered to be a balanced market. Currently, we are experiencing an unprecedentedly strong Seller’s Market, particularly in the lower price ranges.
Increasingly, through Q4 we saw demand for high-end homes improve with the absorption rate for property in the 1M to 3M range dropping considerably. Mid-ranged homes 650K to 1M currently are in the highest demand. Benchmark prices for a single family home have increased on average by 4.5% throughout the Greater Victoria Area during the fourth quarter. The Saanich Peninsula specifically experienced a 6.0% increase in benchmark prices. The overall benchmark for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was $828,400 at the end of Q4. In the
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q3-2020 to Q4-2020 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices
Townhouse Benchmark Prices
Condominium Benchmark Prices
downtown core, the benchmark was $915,100 at the end of Q4. The benchmark was $728,900 in Westshore, and $893,200 on the Peninsula. Over the quarter, the extreme shortage of properties, particularly in the single family detached category has seen prices increase. At the time of writing, there were only 283 single family homes available for sale in the Victoria Area.
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
During the last quarter, 29% of the homes sold in this period were over their MLS listed price, and a further 22% sold at their listed price. The remaining 49% sold below the listed price. This marks a 3% increase in sales over list from the previous quarter.
Monthly Sales Comparison Greater Victoria - (2017-2020)
1100
1000
Number of Sales
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
478
675
929
885
1006
1008
790
736
640
664
671
462
2018
431
545
688
774
755
708
651
594
533
598
462
375
2019
329
421
640
696
848
740
706
661
616
619
577
402
2020
411
563
608
287
457
808
979
979
989
990
795
631
When reviewing absorption rates by price range, we see the true market demand for property in the under 1M price range. With only 0.38 months of inventory for homes between 800K and 1M and an astonishing 0.02 months of inventory for homes between 600K and 800K. The lack of inventory in the most in the most popular price range is apparent, with houses in the 600K to 800K prices ranges selling almost immediately. Luxury property follows a similar trend, with property under 3M selling quickly.
Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2020
7
6.17
Months of Inventory
6
5
4
3
1.52 1.59
2
1
0
0.40 Under $600K
0.02
0.38
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
0.79 $1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached December 2020
2.50
2.00
Months of Inventory
2.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
0.95 0.70 0.55
0.50
0.23
0.41
0.33
0.69
0.63
0.55
0.49
0.45
0.29
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
Absorption Rates - Condominiums
December 2020
December 2020
3.50
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.24
3.00
3.00
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.25 1.93
2.00
1.57
1.46
1.50
1.40
1.16
0.00
0.33
0.53
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.11
0.96
1.00
0.70
0.83
1.00
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.29 0.00
0.33 0.15
0.00
0.32 0.15
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range
Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2020
December 2020
5
5
4.00
2.57
1.31 NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
0.55
0.75 0.89
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
4
0.69
3
2
0.79 0.75
1
0.29
0.00
0
Under $600K
1.67
1.50
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
0
Under $600K
Truly, it’s difficult to say when there has
NO SALES IN PAST 3
0.00 MONTHS
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range December 2020
ever been a better time for Sellers to list
12
10.50
their homes. However, this poses a problem 10
Now more than ever Buyers
need to employ the services of an attentive and experienced Realtor who can identify homes that meet their need immediately, and ensure prospective buyers have a
Months of Inventory
for Buyers.
8
6
4
2.33
chance to view and write an offer. Unfortu-
2
nately this market doesn’t provide Buyers
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
the luxury of taking their time.
0
OR SALES 0.00
0.88 $1M to $1.5M
0.82 $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range
December 2020
December 2020
7
7
6.00
6
5
4
3
2
0.75
1 NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.00 0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
0.42
0.79
5
4
3
1.71
2
1
0.56
6.00
6
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
0.48 0.25
Under $600K $600K to $800K $800K to $1M
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
0
Over $3M
0.75
0.37 0.54
0.86 NO SALES IN PAST 3
0.00 MONTHS
0 Under $600K $1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
It’s easy to be intimidated by Victoria’s hot market! If you are considering a move, there’s no need to be nervous. Ask me about my strategies designed to protect sellers in a market with nowhere to go. I’d love to hear from you! PAUL MACRIS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney BC V8L 1X9
250-656-0911 Paul.Macris@HolmesRealty.com WWW.HOLMESREALTY.COM The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
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