Centers of Attention

Call this one “The Return of the Big Men.” There have been plenty of tall people chosen in the upper reaches of the NBA Draft before, but recently we have been overrun with wings and guards and people who want to do anything but play inside.

This year is different. It’s possible as many as four pivots could be chosen during the Lottery portion of the proceedings, and a couple other top prospects have the capacity to handle center duties in smalllineup alignments.

“As many six or seven big men could go in the Lottery,” says an Eastern Conference personnel man.

While the belief among many in the know is that Arizona center Deandre Ayton is the top prospect, there is no agreement about how the other big men sort themselves out. In a draft that doesn’t include a lot of top-shelf, true guards, people’s eyes will be looking up, and teams will be trying to fortify their interiors with an interesting crop of big men.

The following is a rating of the top 15 players, based not on where they will go in the Draft but on how their careers will proceed once they reach the NBA.

Deandre Ayton

Height: 7-0 Weight: 243 College: Arizona Projected Position: Center

There is some debate over whether Ayton should be the top overall pick, but many people are convinced he’s the one.

“He’s a franchise-changing talent,” a Western Conference executive says. “He has every offensive tool in the box.”

Ayton has tremendous physical skills and athletic ability. He can shoot to 17 feet and even made some threepointers (12-of-35) for the Wildcats. Ayton rebounds well and he isn’t a bad passer.

“He has a high skill level,” an Eastern executive says. “He can face up. He makes free throws. His rebounding is elite.”

The question with Ayton comes at the other end. He doesn’t protect the rim. He blocked only 66 shots in 35 games, a low total for somebody with his skill and size. Ayton isn’t good at guarding the perimeter and will have to make a big commitment to improving on that side of the ball.

“His defensive game is not as good as you would think it is for someone with his physical package,” the Eastern exec says.

The thinking is that some work will fix his defense, but you can’t teach the raw skills that Ayton already possesses.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Height: 6-11 Weight: 240 College: Michigan State Projected Position: Power Forward

The son of former player Jaren Sr., Jackson has the chance to do what pops didn’t do: Go up to the draft stage and shake the Commissioner’s hand. But Jr. will have a long road to go before he matches dad’s 12 years in the League, one of them ending in a championship with the San Antonio Spurs in 1999.

In order to get there, he’ll have to improve his jump shot and get more consistent with his offensive production. But a team looking for someone with amazing potential would do well to consider him carefully.

“He plays the right way, is usually highly engaged in the game, is unselfish and is a really, really good rim protector,” the Eastern personnel man says. “He is good at blocking shots. “His upside stands out.” The Western exec gushes a little more: “He is a freak of nature physically.”

Jackson is one of the youngest players in the draft (he doesn’t turn 19 until Sept. 15), which means he has plenty of room to grow.

“He’s a very good player,” the Eastern exec says. “He ‘s a great kid, too.”

Luka Doncic

Height: 6-8 Weight: 228 Country: Slovenia Projected Position: Shooting Guard/Small Forward

Doncic won’t win the decathlon, and asking him to lock down anybody on the perimeter is a mistake— not because he won’t try. But when it comes to understanding the game of basketball and making his teammates better, Doncic is ready to contribute to a winning team immediately. After all, the 19-year-old has been playing professionally in the very competitive Euroleague since he was 16.

“He is elite in just about everything but speed,” the Eastern exec says. “He’s slower than most wings, but he’s more skilled and has a higher basketball IQ than any kid his age I’ve seen in a while.”

Doncic is a strong shooter and makes good decisions. He’s mature, has good size and the willingness to step up in clutch situations.

“He is going to beat you with his mind,” the Eastern personnel man says.

Doncic will be a solid defender in a team concept and someone who will always be welcome on the floor by his teammates.

Marvin Bagley III

Height: 6-11 Weight: 235 College: Duke Projected Position: Power Forward

There can be no denying Bagley’s ability on the offensive end. He showed throughout his one year in Durham that he has special skills with the ball in his hands.

“He really has a knack for scoring,” the Western exec says. “He has unbelievable hands, a great touch, can handle the ball a little bit and has the best first twitch in the draft. He gets a lot of putbacks and offensive rebounds.”

Bagley has a good post-up game, with plenty of energy and the ability to maneuver in close areas around the basket. Bagley is a quick leaper who can face up. He could well average 20 and 9 as a rookie—and give up that much at the other end. Bagley doesn’t protect the rim, and last year the Blue Devils went to a zone often to hide his shortcomings as a defender.

“On defense, it’s a matter of figuring out if he can be disciplined enough,” the Eastern personnel man says. “He’s physically and athletically gifted enough to play defense.”

Michael Porter Jr.

Height: 6-10 Weight: 215 College: Missouri Projected Position: Small Forward

Because of a back injury that limited him to three games, Porter’s body of work is largely taken from his spectacular high school career. On that alone, he’s a top-five pick, and might’ve been in the conversation for the No. 1 pick had he dominated the collegiate ranks, as many had projected.

“He can really score the basketball,” the Eastern personnel man says. “He does it effortlessly and easily and from all areas on the court. He can get to the rim in transition.”

Porter does so many things well that he will fit nicely in today’s position-less, mix-andmatch NBA. He has a fine feel for the game and has shown the ability to score wherever he has played. “He is the modernday, versatile, inside-out player,” the Western exec says. “You can run the offense through him.”

Mohamed Bamba

Height: 7-0 Weight: 215 College: Texas Projected Position: Center

The Eastern personnel man has a plausible reason why Bamba seemed at times to coast and has gained something of a reputation as someone who doesn’t always play hard.

“At the high school level, sometimes he got bored,” he says. “Even at the college level, he got bored. Look at the games when something was on the line. He responded.”

That may be true, but the NBA offers plenty of opportunities for players to check out. Take that Tuesday night in February on the fourth day of a six-day road trip, for instance. Bamba must prove that he wants to give maximum effort at all times. If he does, his team will receive elite defensive play—3.7 bpg last year—and good rebounding. Bamba isn’t very advanced offensively, but the Western executive says he is in better shape now than Jazz pivotman Rudy Gobert was when he entered the League.

Wendell Carter Jr.

Height: 6-10 Weight: 260 College: Duke Projected Position: Center/Power Forward

Teams expecting Carter to be an immediate standout—or a standout at any time—could be disappointed. But the Western exec says he will “be a really good piece” and has a ceiling of Al Horford. That’s not bad.

Carter can shoot and pass from the pivot position, and though he can handle some work at the 4 spot on offense, he cannot defend opponents there. That could be a problem. Also, because he spent much of the 2017-18 season in the shadow of Bagley, it’s hard to tell what Carter can really do on the offensive side.

“You don’t know if you are getting a top 10 center with him,” the Western exec says. “But if you put some pieces around him, he can be really good.”

Mikal Bridges

Height: 6-7 Weight: 205 College: Villanova Projected Position: Small Forward/Shooting Guard

The team that drafts Bridges might not win the press conference or sell many of his jerseys, but it will definitely win some games.

“He’s not a sexy pick and not that great of an offensive creator with a million moves,” the Eastern executive says. “But he has made himself into a very good shooter, and he plays with a lot of character. He’s a winning player.”

Bridges is an anomaly in the lottery, in that he spent four years (one as a redshirt) in college. But he was part of a Villanova team that won two national titles and has the 3-and-D ability that is so valuable in today’s game. Bridges can defend four positions, understands the game well and will be a great teammate. He’s also a proven winner who will go well with any franchise looking to breed a winning culture.

“He’s not a flashy player and isn’t highly touted, but he knows how to play and was well coached,” the Eastern personnel man says. “He helped his team win and is one of those guys who can come in and contribute right away.”

Collin Sexton

Height: 6-2 Weight: 185 College: Alabama Projected Position: Point Guard

A franchise looking for someone to run the team could do worse than Sexton, who draws high praise for his motor, character, desire and ability to energize a team.

“He has an infectious energy on the court,” the Eastern exec says.

“He’s a high-character guy with a 4.0 GPA and off the chart leadership skills,” the Western executive says.

“He plays extremely hard every single game, every single possession,” the Eastern personnel man says.

While Sexton checks off all the character boxes, his basketball skills are the ones in question. Sexton is a streaky shooter, but he wants to take the big shot. He’s able to play in pick-and-roll situations, and once he gets going toward the basket, he’s tough to stop. Sexton can finish through contact and is a good passer. He’ll defend willingly and wants to win.

Shai Gilgeous- Alexander

Height: 6-6 Weight: 180 College: Kentucky Projected Position: Point Guard

By the time the 2017-18 season was over, anybody heading to Lexington and other college outposts to see UK’s Kevin Knox or Hamidou Diallo came away impressed with Gilgeous-Alexander, who must work on his shot but has plenty of intangibles.

“He makes great decisions and has a natural feel for the game,” the Eastern exec says. “He has a 7-foot wingspan. He doesn’t have great speed, but he has size, speed and a good brain.”

Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t going to flourish in an uptempo system, and asking him to jet past opponents is a mistake. But he has the ability to set up his teammates and is a willing defender. At Kentucky, he earned the right to lead, something that is usually bestowed upon the Wildcats’ one-and-done players.

Miles Bridges

Height: 6-7 Weight: 230 College: Michigan State Projected Position: Power Forward/Small Forward

Bridges took a gamble and returned for his sophomore season in East Lansing, even though many had him in the lottery last year. But since he actually enjoyed being on campus, it wasn’t a horrible move. Now, he finds himself back in just about the same situation: Facing a late lottery destiny and likely to find himself on a team that isn’t too far out of playoff contention. There are worse fates.

The question with Bridges is what position he plays.

“He’s not a three,” the Western exec says. “He’s a four.”

“He can play three and four,” the Eastern personnel man says.

Bridges can hit shots if his feet are set. He’s a good rebounder, and he is a capable passer. Bridges is tough, has good character and comes from a strong program.

“He can do a lot on the court except create his own offense,” the Eastern exec says. “He doesn’t have a one-onone or pick-and-roll game. That’s what you want from a star. He can be a good role player and a third or fourth option on offense.”

Kevin Knox

Height: 6-9 Weight: 215 College: Kentucky Projected Position: Small Forward/Power Forward

“He’s right out of central casting,” says the Western executive. “He looks like a player.”

That’s true. If you called room service and asked for a long, athletic forward, you might just find a waiter carrying Knox in on a tray. He has a sweet shooting stroke, can move well and is extremely athletic. He certainly passes the eye test. The question with him is what he does when he hits the floor and whether it translates consistently to the NBA game. “He is really young, but he can score the ball,” the Eastern personnel man says. “He’s still trying to figure out how to get all the way to the rim and finish. Sometimes, he shies away from contact.”

Knox isn’t a great rebounder, and his NBA assignment will most likely be as a stretch 4, which could be problematic on the defensive end. “Someone might think they can convert him to a 3, like they tried to do at Kentucky,” the Western exec says. “It hasn’t worked.”

Trae Young

Height: 6-2 Weight: 175 College: Oklahoma Projected Position: Point Guard

You will see a lot of mock drafts that have Young as high as sixth, and he may well go that high. But this rating is about a player’s success in the NBA, and Young has some issues in that regard.

There is no denying his shooting range, which begins when he enters the arena. He’s a willing and very good passer. And he is quite strong in transition. But there are some big questions about him and they all focus on him on the defensive end.

Young doesn’t have great size, and he isn’t very athletic. In fact, his body “still needs a lot of work,” according to the Eastern personnel man. But if a team wants to commit to playing at 100 mph and doesn’t care it surrenders a lot of points at the other end, Young could well be the right guy.

“He is off the charts in terms of his skill and basketball IQ,” the Eastern exec says. “But he has a lot of physical deficiencies. He’s very small, very thin and has average speed, at best.”

Lonnie Walker IV

Height: 6-4 Weight: 200 College: Miami Projected Position: Shooting Guard

Walker was a heralded recruit for the Hurricanes, and though he didn’t tear things up in south Florida (11.5 ppg), he remains a Lottery level player, in part because there aren’t a lot of European candidates at the 2 position, and collegians like Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter decided against coming out.

“He had some moments and showed a lot of talent at times,” the Western exec says. “He’s athletic, can pass it a little bit but is really raw.”

Walker can hit shots and has a variety of capabilities. The question with him is what he does particularly well, although having an athletic wing who can knock down shots is attractive to a lot of teams.

“I don’t know if he has an elite skill,” the Eastern personnel man says. “He does try to guard people, and he tries to play the right way.”

By Michael Bradley