Should I Stay or Should I Go?

POLITICS

A new poll looks at the Americans who say they’re considering leaving the country for good. (They probably won’t.)

By David Brady and Brett Parker

Since the George W. Bush administration, Gallup in its World Poll has asked this question: “Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move PERMANENTLY to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?” During the Bush and Obama administrations the number of Americans responding positively was right around 10 percent (11 for Bush and 10 for Obama). During the Trump presidency that number (in 2017) jumped to 16 percent. In comparison (2017), the percentage for Latin America was 27 percent while in European Union countries it was 21 percent; in Australia and New Zealand it was below 10 percent.

In 2019, Gallup acknowledged the increase in the United States and reported that this new interest in emigration was concentrated primarily among women under thirty (40 percent wanted to leave) and those who disapproved of Donald Trump (22 percent, compared to 7 percent of Trump’s supporters). The Gallup article summarized this trend by pointing out that the rise in leavers “has come among groups that typically lean Democratic and that have

David Brady is the Davies Family Senior Fellow (Emeritus) at the Hoover Institution and the Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science in the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Brett Parker is a research assistant at Hoover and a JD/PhD student at Stanford University.

disapproved of Trump’s job performance so far in his presidency: women, young Americans, and people in lower-income groups.” The World Poll does not ask about respondents’ political leanings, depriving us of the opportunity to determine how ideology rates as a factor in the desire to emigrate.

Fortunately, the first YouGov poll of 2022 also asked a series of questions about emigration. The first question was: “Have you ever thought about leaving the US and moving permanently to a foreign country?” Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they had considered leaving, with 62 percent saying they had not. Those who said they had considered leaving permanently were decidedly more liberal. More than two-thirds of those describing themselves as very liberal answered yes, as did slightly more Thirty-eight percent of all respondents than one-half of those said they had considered leaving, with identifying as liberal. 62 percent saying they had not. Among self-described moderates, 39 percent indicated that they had ever thought of leaving, while slightly fewer than onequarter of conservatives said they had thought about it. However, among the very conservative, about three in ten had contemplated leaving the country.

The questioning then turned to specific reasons a person might want to exit the

United States: “Is there anything that could happen in the US that would make you leave the US and move permanently to another country?” Among the very liberal and liberal, the most common event by far was Donald Trump being elected president again. Here are some exact quotes to give the flavor of the responses:

“If Trump became president again, I’m leaving.”

“The Republicans take over the country and the criminal mob boss Trump becomes president again and we become a true fascist government.” The very liberal were particularly fond of terms like “fascist” (“fascist takeover of the federal government”).

And finally, “If Trump gets elected in 2024, I think he will set up a dictatorship. I do not want to live under such a regime.”

Liberals also mentioned issues like racism (for example, “The continued police violence, unfair legal system racism”) and government actions against

LGBTQ groups—however, a Trump return to the presidency was by far the dominant response.

On the conservative side, there were anti-Biden remarks such as:

“Biden being re-elected or another Democrat like Biden.”

But the dominant theme among conservatives was a socialist or communist takeover of the government: “Continue socialist programs that we

can’t continue to pay for” or “the continuous loss of freedom and government intrusion on past way of life.”

Mask mandates and loss of religious freedom were often mentioned as further examples of freedom under attack by the government. As was the case for the very liberal and liberal, the very conservative were more likely than conservatives to picture extreme scenarios (e.g., a communist or Chinese takeover of the country) rather than more run-of-the-mill socialism. Nevertheless, major themes were consistent: socialism-communism is eroding our freedom as Americans.

Meanwhile, moderates (as one would expect) were less likely to say they were leaving. However, among those who said they had considered it, the reasoning was often a mixture of the economy and some concern for freedom. The moderates’ worries were more measured, though, judging by the tenor of their comments.

It is not surprising that ideology affects one’s predisposition to leave the country. After all, the very liberal and the very conservative have the strongest opinions about issues, institutions, political parties, and events. It’s natural that they would react most dramatically when the political tide flows in the opposite direction. For example, when asked whether Joe Biden had legitimately won the presidency, the results follow the expected pattern as shown in Table 1. Among the very liberal, the number is 94 percent, which falls approximately linearly over ideology to 22 percent among the very conservative.

No matter how much one wants to leave the United States, however, it is a challenge to actually take the plunge. Hence, the follow-up question: “How likely do you think it is that you will leave the US?” Table 2 provides the results.

Introducing this question provides a more accurate picture of the types of Americans who would seriously consider moving. Only 19 percent of the very liberal would not consider leaving, while majorities of the conservatives are certain

TABLE 1: BIDEN AND ELECTION LEGITIMACY BY IDEOLOGY

Very Liberal Liberal Moderate Conservative

Very Conservative

Biden Legitimately Won the election Biden Did Not Legitimately Win the election 94% 90% 71% 33% 22%

6% 10% 29% 67% 78%

TABLE 2: LIKELIHOOD OF LEAVING THE US BY IDEOLOGY

How likely do you think it is that you will leave the US?

Very Liberal Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Conservative

Very Likely

5% 3% 5% 2% 4% Somewhat Likely 13% 12% 12% 7% 13% A Small Chance 63% 57% 40% 35% 32% Would Not Consider Leaving 19% 28% 43% 57% 51%

they are staying put. However, as was the case in the original question, the very conservative were more likely than conservatives to say they would leave.

Taken together, these results indicate that liberals of various strengths are currently most likely to consider emigrating, with their most salient concern being the potential re-election of Trump (followed generally by concerns about discrimination). On the right, the conservative are less likely to say they would leave. When asked what would push them to do so, however, they consistently espoused fears about the country moving toward socialism/communism and a loss of freedoms (for these individuals, often as exemplified by vaccination and mask mandates). Liberalism and conservatism translate relatively smoothly into Democratic and Republican, with only 2 percent of Republicans in this survey liberal and only 7 percent of Democrats conservative. The combination of ideology and partisanship that pervades American politics includes the desire, if not the actual ability, to leave the country.

Special to the Hoover Digest.

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