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NIWA Meteorologist Ben Noll
New weather tool could be a game-change for drought-struck growers A new tool being developed by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) to forecast drought and dry conditions could help growers and farmers be better prepared. Anne Hardie NIWA meteorologist, Ben Noll, says scientists will use a weather model released in the United States in 2020 and refine it for New Zealand’s complex terrain. It will involve some “data science and deep learning” to understand the New Zealand context. Initially it will be developed to forecast 35 days ahead and then it will be extended to three and later, six months, as researchers try to push predictions further out. 38
The ORCHARDIST : FEBRUARY 2022
“We are trying to determine if a drought is likely,” Ben says. “Whether or not drought has a higher probability in the next two seasons.” The new forecast tool will sit alongside the New Zealand Drought Index which was developed and launched in 2017. It measures the current status of drought across the country and measures the duration and intensity of recent dryness. In other words, it is an observation of drought once it has happened.
