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Elissa Branch

In this HousingWire Daily episode, Editor-in-Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about why home prices have stabilized even as mortgage rates have gone up.

Sarah Wheeler: Even if you're not a housing crash person, most people expected some moderation in pricing in 2023. But, that's not what we've seen. And also, you've been pointing out for the last six months that there is no inventory crash coming. One of the things that has to happen is that there has to be a whole bunch more supply. When in fact, we're at all-time lows.

Logan Mohtashami: New listings data is trending at all-time lows. When demand picks up, it prevents active inventory growth. So that's what occurred in 2023, it was the longest time ever recorded in U.S. history to reach the seasonal bottom. My price forecast said prices can fall in 2023, but it needs mortgage rates to be above 5.875%. And, it needs to kill demand, just like it did in 2022.

This is why I've always highlighted November 9. We have a second half of 2023 to deal with. That's when the seasonality of pricing actually gets weaker. But, we still keep the same principles of following active listings, new listings, 10-year yield and purchase application data. This process has always worked and is not a speculative theory of just throwing it up in the air hoping it sticks. In one of the most violent housing markets in history, just a few moves in the bond yield markets and the forward-looking data can stabilize the biggest crash in home sales ever recorded in history. It can happen.

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