TOMORROW A Publication of the Gulf Coast Institute
Houston 2035
Summer 2006
3,538,000 more people will be here. We have choices, and decisions must be made.
Volume 1 / Issue 1
TOMORROW
TOMORROW Summer 2006
TOMORROW STAFF Editor, David Crossley Associate Editor, Jay Blazek Crossley Geographic Information Analyst, Binbin Chen Design, Easterly & Company
Volume 1 / Issue 1
3,538,000 MORE PEOPLE
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WHERE WE LIVE
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In the next three decades, forecasts say we’ll use up vast amounts of the remaining greenspace.
WHERE WE WORK
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Jobs determine a lot about where we live and about travel.
WHO WE ARE - AND WILL BE
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Houston has become enormously diverse and that change will be ongoing.
THE BIG PICTURE
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What’s the scale of our development and our place in the global system?
BASIC TERRAIN
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It’s a big, wet region with spreading development and a broad variety of governance structures
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
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Nothing impacts land use like transportation infrastructure.
WHAT WE WANT
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People are pretty clear about they want for the future.
OUR VISION
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In hundreds of meetings, we’ve expressed our values. What is it we care about for the future?
THE URBAN ZONE
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Houston needs a significant urban zone.
THE GREEN ZONE
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A network of bayous and parks could connect to the regional countryside
THE GARDEN CITY
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Could this be a future description of Houston?
A POINT OF LEVERAGE The Regional Transportation Plan is a key place to pursue quality of life goals.
Tomorrow is a publication of
GULF COAST INSTITUTE
What will our enormous growth mean for quality of life, and what is there to think about?
Inside back cover
BOARD OF DIRECTORS David Crossley, President Jody Blazek, CPA, Treasurer Janet Redeker, Secretary Anne S. Bohnn Peter Hoyt Brown, FAIA Kent Dussair Barry Goodman David Gresham Winifred Hamilton, Ph.D. Carol Lewis, Ph.D. Marina Ballantyne Walne, Ph.D. BOARD OF ADVISORS James Calaway Jonathan Day Jack Drake C.W. Duncan, Jr. Howard W. Horne Ben F. Love (deceased) John L. Nau III E.D. Wulfe RESEARCH COUNCIL Health, Winifred Hamilton, Ph.D. Land and Water, John Jacob, Ph.D. Sociology, Steven Klineberg, Ph.D. Transportation, Carol Lewis, Ph.D. Education, Marina Ballantyne Walne, Ph.D. INSTITUTE STAFF David Crossley, President Jay Blazek Crossley, Administration Binbin Chen, Geographic Information Analyst Kate Crady, Development Rick Cagney, Corporate Relations Geri Wells, Community Relations Paula Webb, Accounting FUNDING The Gulf Coast Institute is funded by several regional foundations, including Houston Endowment, The Anchorage Foundation, Anchorage Foundation of Texas, Alice Kleberg Reynolds Foundation, Joan Hohlt and Roger Wich Foundation, and the Jacob and Teresa Hershey Foundation, as well as through individual contributions to 1000 Friends of Houston. TOMORROW 3015 Richmond, Suite 201 Houston, Texas 77098 Tel 713.523.5757 Fax 713.523.3057 tomorrow@gulfcoastideas.org www.gulfcoastinstitute.org The Gulf Coast Institute is a 501(c)(3) exempt organization. Contributions may be deductible.
3,538,000 more people... 5 b illio n sq uare fe e t o f ne w b uildings will b e ne e de d fo r the m he latest forecast for Houston’s future says that between now and 2035 we will add 3,538,000 people. The year after that, Houston will be 200 years old. The region should then contain 9,000,000 people. Adding 3,538,000 people and all their cars, homes, jobs, schools, police and firefighter stations, stores, and other needs will require the construction of more than 5 billion square feet of new buildings. The forecasts for where all that growth will occur if current trends and policies continue show us that nearly all of the greenspace in Harris County and massive amounts in Fort Bend, Montgomery, Galveston, and Brazoria Counties will be gone by Houston’s 200th birthday in 2036. The Houston-Galveston Area Council has initiated a process called Envision Houston Region, that will lead to the creation of the 2035 Regional Transportation Plan, which is the key document for describing to the Federal government what we plan to do with the billions of dollars we will receive over the next decades for mobility purposes. Envision Houston Region began with a series of workshops in the fall of 2005, and it is very clear from those citizen workshops, as well as from the recent history of
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other citizen vision exercises in the region, that citizens want above all things to conserve and improve our natural greenspace and rural areas. That means using less land for development, and to do that we have to grapple with the Big Picture truism that nothing impacts land use like transportation infrastructure. The region is moving toward better and better planning at a large scale, largely thanks to H-GAC and a broad coalition of hopeful citizen activists and organizations who are demanding better information and more thoughtful examination of choices. This planning movement is identify-
ing broad connections that need to be made. The transportation network is expanding in a pattern that can’t - or won’t - be sustained, because it is now diminishing neighborhoods and gobbling up tax base. If we are to preserve the things that are important to us and our children, we need to think about the pattern of future growth. We must find ways to conserve community assets, both the natural ones and the ones we have created. We have to understand patterns and think through the consequences of our decisions. The purpose of this magazine is to provide an array of complex information and analysis, as well as a few possible scenarios to inform the public discussion about what, where, and how to build next.
Map: Gulf Coast Institute
THE LINES ON THE MAPS Th e b lac k line s sho wn at le ft de no te the 8 c o untie s, th e white o ne s th e m ajo r ro ads.
SHAPE OF THE REGION The 8-co unty re gio n lo o ks like the se two m aps with m ajo r wate r b o die s, m ajo r ro ads, and co unty line s sho wn at le ft.
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Number of people in the region today:
5,297,000 In 2035:
8,835,000 2
People/sq mi Data: H-GAC
2005 population by 1-mile grid
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Maps: Gulf Coast Institute
Where we live
Ho w will o ur ho m e s o ccupy the land 30 ye ars fro m no w?
hese maps were made from data and forecasts by the Houston-Galveston Area Council. The forecasts will be used to study traffic modeling for the new Regional Transportation Plan, which will set a direction for the next few decades. The most obvious observation that can be made is that enormous quantities of greenspace will disappear from the region in the next 30 years. All large green areas now remaining in Harris County will be replaced by development, as will most of the forest in Montgomery County. These forecasts are essentially based on recent trends and policies, so they do not reflect choices
that can still be made about public policies, particulary about transportation infrastructure policy. As Metrostudy President Mike Inselmann has said “The city grows where developers buy land and they buy land where new transportation corridors get developed.” An example of this dynamic is evident in the maps: they project signifi-
2035 population by 1-mile grid
cant new development happening along the proposed Grand Parkway, which is shown on H-GAC's maps as a new transportation corridor - although most of it doesn't exist. Another observation is that only onethird of new development will take place in the region’s incorporated towns and cities, with the bulk of it occurring in the counties outside these areas. Public policy is hard to bring to bear in these areas with so few tools granted by the State for planning and regulating the built environment and its impact on quality of life.
Note: The colors and number ranges used here divide land uses into four categories: urban, suburban, rural, and frontier, or relatively natural areas. The categories are based on population per square mile. Green denotes frontier and rural densities, yellows are suburban, and reds are urban, with dark red the most dense. This system provides an easy way to see how each area is expected to change. Because regional greenspace is closely tied to air, water, and food, it is a leading indicator of quality of life and place. If we say we want to conserve and improve greenspace, we need to understand where we still have some.
INCORPORATED AREAS UNINCORPORATED AREAS
New households needed:
1,400,000 plus job sites, stores, schools, fire and police facilities, roads, parking, and everything else we need or want Chart:Gulf Coast Institute Data: H-GAC
TOWNS & CITIES VS. COUNTIES Ab o ut 2/ 3 o f gro wth wo uld o ccur o utside inco rpo rate d are as.
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2005 jobs by 1-mile grid
Number of jobs in the region today:
2,542,000 In 2035
4,069,000 4
co rrido rs inte nsity.
jobs/sq mi Data: H-GAC
Where we work
spre ad, ce nte rs and
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Maps: Gulf Coast Institute
Sub -urb an jo b s
obs are mostly clustered in 20 or 30 percent of the general center of the region. They are more densely arranged along several major roadways. At many intersections, centers of varying sizes have developed. The top 20 of these job centers are shown in the map at the top right. Several of these trade centers have more jobs than downtown San Diego or Miami or San Antonio. Each is a “city� in its own right. These places not only have large numbers of jobs in an increasingly urban environment, but also have a growing number of services and residents. They are moving toward self-sufficiency. In the forecast for 2035, this effect intensifies, but
there is also extensive low-density development of jobs and services that will convert a great deal of agricultural and natural areas into sub-urban use. Downtown Houston grows jobs, and so do the top five satellite cities of Uptown/Galleria, Texas Medical Center, Greenway Plaza, and Westchase. Many small centers grow as well.
2035 jobs by 1-mile grid
Square feet of new job space needed by 2035:
JOB CENTERS Many jo b s are cluste re d in “activity” o r “trade ” ce nte rs such as Upto wn/ Galle ria. The to p five are fairly clo se to ge the r.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Central Business District Uptown/Galleria Greenway Plaza Texas Medical Center Westchase West Houston I US 290/NW Sharpstown Greenspoint Northwest Mall NASA I Universities West Houston II Energy Corridor I Brookhollow Southwest I Bush Int’l FM 1960 I FM 1960 II Hobby Airport Map above: Gulf Coast Institute Data: H-GAC
JOB GROWTH Jo b de nsity co ntinue s to b uild alo ng m ajo r transpo rtatio n co rrido rs, with so m e lo w-de nsity jo b cre atio n co ntinuing to spre ad slightly.
1.1 billion 5
Who we are - and wil be
All o f Ho usto n’s - and Harris Co unty’s - gro wth in re ce nt tim e s has b e e n fo re ign im m igrants. The re has b e e n ne t lo ss o f do m e stic po pulatio n
We ’re ge tting o lde r, we ’re ge tting m o re dive rse e speak more than 100 languages in our region. Hispanics are expected to become the majority in the City of Houston and eventually in Harris County and the State. Anglo population in the region is expected to decline. We are getting older, particularly in the Anglo community. Our level of education is widely
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understood as not-superb. As Rice Sociologist Dr. Stephen Klineberg notes, “The vigorous blue-collar ‘resource economy’ has receded into history. In its place, an increasingly high technology, knowledge-based, fully global economic system has been taking shape. Gone are the days when a high school graduate could go to
work in the oil fields or in manufacturing... and expect to be able to make a middle-class wage. Advanced education is now the most important determinant of a person’s ability to earn enough to support a family. From now on, as the saying goes, ‘What you earn depends on what you’ve learned.’” 3 maps below: Max Beauregard for Gulf Coast Institute/Blueprint Houston
PER CAPITA INCOME Lo w inco m e re side nts are m o stly cluste re d inside the Be ltway.
CHILDREN AND ELDERLY IN POVERTY Co m paring this m ap to the o ne b e lo w, the re is a patte rn.
Map: Gulf Coast Institute Data: US Census Note: This map shows the predominant race/ethnicity in each census tract in the 8-county region. This map uses the US Census Bureau classifications of race, meaning a person declaring themselves White and Hispanic would be listed as Hispanic. In the areas listed as Mixed Race/Ethnicity, each race/ethnicity listed composes more than 30% but less than 50% of the population of that area.
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY PLACE The re ’s a stro ng co rre latio n b e twe e n e ducatio n and inco m e .
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Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Steve Murdoch
PEOPLE ARE MOVING The size o f gre e n do ts in the m ap s b e lo w indicate s num b e rs o f pe o ple m o ving to that are a, while re ddish do ts indicate place s whe re that po pulatio n has de cline d. Pe rio d o f m e asure m e nt is 1990-2000.
POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2005-2035 Mo re than 80 pe rce nt o f the gro wth will b e Hisp anics, with Anglo p o p ulatio n in the re gio n actually de clining.
Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Stephen Klineberg, Ph.D.
4 maps: Max Beauregard for Gulf Coast Institute/Blueprint Houston
Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Stephen Klineberg, Ph.D.
ETHNIC DISTRIBUTION BY PLACE Sub urb an c o untie s are o ve rwhe lm ingly Anglo , with Harris Co unty m o re dive rse and th e City o f Ho usto n with no m ajo rity race o r e thnicity.
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY ETHNICITY Ge ne rally, Asian im m igrants co m e he re highly e ducate d, wh ile Latino im m igrants do no t.
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Map: Regional Plan Association
Map: Regional Plan Association
The Big Picture
All o ve r the wo rld, pe o ple are flo cking to urb an re gio ns, and the US is no diffe re nt. Lo o king
HEART OF TWO MEGAREGIONS Ho usto n has cle ar affinitie s with Dallas/ Ft. Wo rth, San Anto nio , and Austin, as we ll as Ne w O rle ans.
he emerging concept of mega-regions proposes that clusters of metropolitan areas are the competitors in the global market, and that they work together to realize benefits in the development of large-scale infrastructure, environmental or ecostructure systems, and economic performance, including equity, efficiency, and competition. Houston is unique in the US in being in two megaregions, the Texas Triangle and the Gulf Coast. “Mega,� or Big, is a concept well known in Texas and Houston. We are
expected to have nearly 9 million residents in a land area dozens of times larger than New York City, which already has 8 million residents. Manhattan and the City of Houston both have two million residents, but Manhattan will fit inside Loop 610 four times. We have 7.5 miles of rail transit. Manhattan has 75 miles of rail transit. Yet New York City has more parks per capita than any other city in America, and has massive public greenspaces that can be seen from space. Eighty-two percent of Manhattanites walk, bike or take transit to work. Seven percent of Houstonians do that.
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Map: Gulf Coast Institute
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A MATTER OF SCALE Ne w Yo rk City h as 8 m illio n pe o p le - o n a frac tio n o f the land th at th e Ho usto n re gio n will o cc up y wh e n it h as 8 m illo n pe o ple .
M ap: Gulf Coast Institute
MEGAREGIONS Gro ups o f m e tro po litan are as are no w se e n as glo b ally co m pe titive units. Ho usto n is the o nly re gio n to b e in two o f the m .
DIFFERENT APPROACHES Manhattan and the City o f Ho usto n e ach have ab o ut 2 m illio n re side nts. Ho usto n use s 25 tim e s m o re land.
Basic Terrain Map: Binbin Chen and Peter Price for Gulf Coast Institute, Data:
It’s a b ig, we t re gio n with m any e co syste m s, fro m m arshe s and b ays to prairie s and fo re sts, and lo ts o f flat land. ater flows down across Texas through rivers and streams, and in the Houston area there is a riot of drainage routes and watersheds until it empties into the bays and estuaries and then into the Gulf of Mexico to circulate around the world. Wet begets wet, and water also pours from the sky regularly to flood and cleanse the land. We, of course, need to use great quantities of it, and so on the whole we are lucky to have so much. A lot of these watersheds now contain buildings and roads and parking lots, which tend not to allow the water to seep in to find drainage channels, and so the water occasionally overwhelms us in our homes and workplaces and often in our vehicles. Only a small portion of our land is occupied by cities and towns, incorporated under state law and empowered to regulate our community affairs. The rest of the land is in our counties, not empowered by the state to do much of that, but empowered to drive us into the future through their power to build roads. Many ecosystems come together in the large area around downtown Houston, including rivers, bayous, forests, thickets, bottomlands, prairies, savannahs, marshes, estuaries, bays, beaches,
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A PLETHORA OF WATERSHEDS It’s a slo w rise fro m the Gulf acro ss the re gio n, as se e n in this e xagge rate d digital e le vatio n m ap.
Map: Fregonese Calthorpe Associates
Map: Gulf Coast Institute Data: H-GAC
and ocean. Some of these areas are unique, and all support a rich diversity of habitat and food for living creatures, including humans. Perhaps at the top of the wildlife list, our region is one of the greatest centers for birds in North America. Our green infrastructure is vast, and it is everywhere.
CURRENT LAND COVER Re d are as indic ate p arts o f th e re gio n that have b e e n de ve lo p e d and are large ly im p e rvio us to wate r.
CITIES AND TOWNS Ab o ut 140 to wns and citie s o ccupy o nly a po rtio n o f the re gio n. Many pe o ple live in the co untie s.
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Transportation Infrastructure Th e m o st intrusive land use is se t to gro w b y 60 pe rce nt. primarily cars and trucks, it requires massive amounts of pavement, including for parking, a need that is repetitive and tends to produce about six parking spaces for every individual. Overwhelmingly, that is the kind of infrastructure we have in the Houston region. To accommodate our growth, our current transportation plan is to build 11,000 miles of new roadway, which will directly pave at least 30 square miles of additional land. The region’s current plan is to spend about a fourth of our money on transit. Transit requires less land use, but more importantly it produces a different kind of development that uses less land. Roads tend to produce landconsuming development, and transit tends to produce land-conserving development.
Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: John Holtzclaw, Sierra Club
Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Surface Transportation Policy Project
MILES TRAVELED VS. POPULATION GROWTH Incre ase in driving in the US far e xce e de d po pulatio n gro wth in the 20th ce ntury.
FACTORS IN GROWTH IN DRIVING Only 13% o f driving incre ase co m e s fro m po pulatio n gro wth. Othe r facto rs re fle ct ro ad gro wth.
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ROADS DRIVE DEVELOPMENT The are as inside the re d line s indicate pro po se d ro ute s fo r the Grand Parkway. Gre e nspace will vanish within that are a acco rding to the 2035 fo re casts. O nce a ro ad is in the transpo rtatio n plan, it is m o de lle d fo r gro wth - and gro wth happe ns.
Maps: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: H-GAC and Grand Parkway Association
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About 40 percent of our residents don’t drive, for a variety of reasons from disability to age to financial inability to the simple fact of not being old enough (and needing constant chauffering). The issue is complex, and the scale of spend-
LONG TRAVEL TIMES Mage nta circle s indicate num b e rs o f pe o ple with wo rk trips o ve r an ho ur. Black indicate s m o re than 90 m inute s.
SHORT TRAVEL TIMES b lue circle s indicate the num b e r o f pe o ple who se wo rk co m m ute s are le ss than 15 m inute s. HOUSEHOLDS WITH NO CAR Black do ts indicate ho use ho lds witho ut a car, while ye llo w do ts sho w ho use ho lds with 3 o r m o re cars.
3 maps: Max Beauregard for Gulf Coast Institute/Blueprint Houston
he purpose of villages, towns, and cities is to provide human beings with access to each other for a variety of types of exchange. The strategy for access has always been to reduce travel distance, but as we began to gain the means to go faster another strategy was to reduce travel time. That strategy is expensive and requires a lot of machines and infrastructure. Transportation infrastructure (and cheap energy) has enabled the suburbs to expand to cheaper land and in older areas has divided many neighborhoods and communities. The paved ground it occupies is just the beginning. As soon as transportation infrastructure is contemplated, development grows up around it and claims much more land. If the type of infrastructure chosen supports
Ro ads te nd to pro duce land-co nsum ing de ve lo pm e nt patte rns. Transit te nds to pro duce land-co nse rving de ve lo pm e nt patte rns.
16,000 MILES OF MAJOR ROADS The ne two rk is m o stly b ase d o n th e Inte rstate High ways th at radiate o ut fro m the c e nte r, and in o ne c ase (Lo o p 610) go in a circ le . Mo re c ircle s fo llo w to draw gro wth o utward. Two m o re are p lanne d: th e Grand Parkway and b e yo nd it th e Prairie Parkway.
ing is stupendous. As a result, the opportunity for innovation and creativity is rich in the search for a transportation infrastructure that occupies and impacts the smallest amount of land possible, and that provides us with the greatest access to each other for all our purposes of exchange.
Map: Gulf Coast Institute Data: H-GAC
A TALE OF 3 REGIONS Dallas, Ho usto n, and Atlanta h ave diffe re nt ap p ro ache s to th e future in te rm s o f the b alance o f sp e nding fo r transit and ro ads
Total annual household VMT
Graph: Gulf Coast Institute Data: H-GAC
Chart: Center for Transit-Oriented Development
Households/acre
Graph: Gulf Coast Institute Data: Texas Transportation Institute
DENSITY CUTS DRIVING As de nsity o f ho using incre ase s, ve hicle m ile s trave le d pe r ho use ho ld te nds to de cre ase .
HOUSTON GROWTH HISTORY Using o ur situatio n in 1982 as a b ase fo r co m pariso n, this chart sho ws ho w po pulatio n has change d alo ng with the size o f o ur transpo rtatio n infrastructure and the tim e we spe nd in o ur cars.
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What we want Pe o ple are pre tty cle ar ab o ut wh at th e y want fo r Ho usto n’s future . eople in the Houston region repeatedly express a desire for a kind of built environment that is rarely accomplished. High on the list of desires, for example, is the ability to walk from place to place. We want better planning and more controls on development. We want to restrict development in the floodplains. We want more transit. We want more neighborhood planning. Private developers often establish communities where the restrictions on development are tough and exacting - and people flock to live in these places, such as The Woodlands and Cinco Ranch. Houstonians don’t appear to be different from other Americans in surveys. We want to conserve the good things we have and fix the things we don’t like. We appear to be ready to give our elected officials encouragement to change the rules a little in favor of the whole community We definitely want a lot of change and are getting eager for it.
Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Blueprint Houston
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Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Blueprint Houston
MOBILITY SOLUTIONS Vo te rs wo uld suppo rt candidate s pro m o ting stro ng re gulatio ns.
TRAFFIC SOLUTIONS Harris re side nts want be tte r transit, be tte r roads, jobs close r to home .
Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Houston Area Survey - Rice
Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Houston Area Survey - Rice
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT Ho usto n vo te rs want de ve lo pm e nt in alre ady de ve lo pe d are as.
BETTER PLANNING Harris Co unty re side nts favo r b e tte r planning de ve lo pm e nt.
Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Blueprint Houston
Better roads Closer communities Better transit
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Chart: Gulf Coast Institute, Data: Blueprint Houston
CITIZENS AND PUBLIC POLICY A 2003 Blue print Ho usto n surve y o f Ho usto n vo te rs fo und stro ng suppo rt fo r a wide varie ty o f q uality o f life issue s fro m transpo rtatio n to gre e nspace .
URBAN PREFERENCE City re side nts want m o re urb an place s and cho ice s
Our vision
“Our 21st-century community reaches for the future without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs and desires.” Vision for the Houston Region, Foresight Project
In hundre ds o f m e e tings, we ’ve e xpre sse d o ur value s. n 2000, the Gulf Coast Institute published a report called “Connecting the Visions” that found common values and visions in dozens of community planning efforts. Houstonians appear to share these values: Diversity Diversity is seen as a backbone of regional success. Diversity of cultures, of housing, of transportation choices, of places to play and learn and work. Neighborhoods Neighborhoods are seen as the central planning units of development. People don’t want to lose the characteristics that drew them to their neighborhoods, but they do want to change the characteristics that annoy or distress them. Diverse mobility choices People want more roads, but they also want more sidewalks and paths, and more transportation choices. There is a clear bias against carcentered design. Protect existing places People want cultural and historical features to be preserved and maintained. More open space and parks People want greenspace in their neighborhoods. Pocket parks are as welcome as regional parks. Several visions describe our bayou system as our greatest natural asset and call for a network of linear parks along them. Protect the environment Protect the environment, enhance the environment. The Big Picture Plans are expected to be understood in larger contexts. Urban villages “Activity centers” and “urban villages” are favored, places that are convenient to homes and jobs where many of the amenities of daily life are readily accessible, if possible without transportation other than feet or bikes. There is conflict in the interface between such centers and the residential neighborhoods that adjoin or surround them. Trees Trees are strongly guarded at the neighborhood level. In recent years, trees are desired in most of the visions.
Photo: Blueprint Houston
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CITIZENS’ CONGRESS Citize ns at wo rk at Blue print Ho usto n’s first Citize n Co ngre ss.
Blueprint Houston On May 31, 2003, more than 1,000 of Houston’s citizens met in Congress to determine a Citizens’ Agenda for Houston’s Future. Hosted by Blueprint Houston, the Citizens’ Congress established a group of goals, including these ten, in order, as the most urgent priorities: Public Transportation Houston develops a public transit system that reduces traffic congestion, improves air quality, and provides increased density and mobility options throughout the region; and that is clean, fast, efficient, high frequency, comfortable, accessible and well routed. Air Quality Houston improves the quality of its air and in turn improves the quality of life and health of its citizens. Government and Leadership Houston restructures and reforms City government to make it more accountable, to give citizens an active voice in policy decision making, to reduce taxes, and to better collaborate and coordinate activities with other governmental entities. Infrastructure Houston maintains and improves its infrastructure – including streets, roads, sidewalks, traffic management devices, and public facilities – in an efficient and fiscally responsible manner. Economic Development Houston be-
comes a sophisticated, vibrant, information technology-driven city with a highly skilled workforce, a diversified business community attractive to international interests, and small businesses thriving in local neighborhoods. Roads and Congestion Houston supports a coordinated and accessible network of streets, roads, and expressways that are well built, well maintained, and integrated with other modes of transportation; that reduce congestion through traffic management, road construction, and parking; and that are aesthetically pleasing. Health Care Houston encourages healthy living and affordable quality care for all economic and age groups with adequate trauma centers and clinics. Flood Management Houston adopts a flood management plan that encourages cooperation among City, County, and developers in flood management. Water resources Houston becomes a ste ward of water resources, develops new and safe water supplies, and cleans up waterways to eliminate water pollution. A clean city Houston becomes a clean and unpolluted city that supports technologically advanced clean alternative fuels and energy efficient green buildings in sustainable developments.
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HOUSTON’S URBAN ZONE The do ts re pre se nt the to p jo b ce nte rs in the re gio n. Co nne cting the five b igge st o ne s with fast transit wo uld pro duce an urb an zo ne in m o re than o ne place . WALKABILITY Co nve nie nce and safe ty are ke y to vib rant urb an are as in San Die go .
nificant amount of natural services and ouston has five “cities” that already have agricultural land, it can do so by focusing more jobs and businesses than downinvestment and public detown Seattle, Miami, or cisions on the creation of a San Diego. They’re Downclear urban zone. town, the Texas Medical CenA transit backbone ter, Greenway Plaza, Upthrough the five big centers town/Galleria, and Westwould create Houston’s chase. Each of these “cities” is Urban Zone. Travelers getgrowing toward self-sufficiency in terms of jobs, serv- GATHERING PLACES Th e de ns- ting off a transit vehicle at ices, goods, schools, and en- e st p lac e s h ave p ub lic space s. any of these stops would find themselves in urban tertainment, and several are places, at useful destinations. It is critical growing in residential capacity. that the transit stops be in the hearts of each Downtown has always been a true of them, not in parking lots at the edge. urban place and is becoming more so in Eventually, the system should connect the recent times. Uptown and Westchase, einext activity centers on the list, which inther have or are working on master plans cludes Greenspoint, the Energy Corridor, to become much more urban. The MedSugar Land, The Woodlands, and Galveston. ical Center has an urban core and GreenThe growth and quality of our urban way is semi-urban now. zone will say a lot to visitors and our chilAll of our centers are nodes in a regional dren, not to mention to each of us as citimobility network that is largely about cars zens of a great and growing city. and trucks. The most important infrastructure we can provide ourselves is a transit Diagram: Duany Plater-Zyberk and Seth Harry backbone to connect these five centers. Urbanity produces the most efficient “green” development by focusing damage to the natural environment in small places. If the Houston region is to preserve any sig-
Photos: David Crossley, Gulf Coast Institute
Maps: Gulf Coast Institute
The Urban Zone
Be cause Ho usto n’s urb an place s are dispe rse d, the zo ne will e vo lve aro und transit sto ps.
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THE TRANSECT (OF HUMAN HABITAT) This co nc e p t o f gro up ing b uilding typ e s and de signing the p ub lic re alm is as o ld as hum an h ab itat. To day it is p ut fo rward as a so lutio n to de sign b e tte r p lace s, and to re place th e diffic ult princ ip le s o f zo ning. The p urp o se is to o rganize typ e s o f are as.
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BIKES AND PARKS In Am ste rdam , tho usands ride b ike s and spe nd tim e in po pular parks.
THE WORLD OF THE YOUNG Citie s are so phisticate d place s, full o f actio n and pe o ple .
The Green Zone
A ne two rk o f b ayo us and parks co nne cts to the co untryside Illustration: Skidmore Owings Merrill Illustration: Harris County Flood Control
BAYOU DEVELOPMENT This illustratio n o f the Hill at Sim s Bayo u sho ws the kind o f wo rk that is b e ing do ne to re sto re and im pro ve the syste m .
he desire for more greenspace produces a huge dilemma, because the existing natural and rural land belongs to people who hope to make a living or create wealth from it. We either have to make some sort of deal to conserve land and make it available for public use, or
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we have to use our wealth to buy it. For more than a century, Houstonians have had the dream of a vast network of linear parks along the edges of our bayous. These parks would be in nearly every neighborhood and would provide those green fingers to the countryside that make great cities so livable. In Houston, they could also provide another transportation framework for people to walk and ride
bikes all over the region without mixing with street traffic. Some of the visions even contained water taxis in the bigger bayous. This dream is beginning to be realized to some extent. Harris County Flood Control has major reconstruction projects that will slowly produce a lot of parkland, habitat, and bike trails. The question is, how fast can we move and how expensive will it be, and more important: will there be any countryside out there when the fingers reach beyond the urban fringe?
FINGERS TO THE COUNTRYSIDE The re gio n’s rive rs, b ayo us, and cre e ks are e ve rywhe re , and pro vide o ppo rtunitie s to cre ate a huge syste m o f line ar parks that go thro ugh hundre ds o f ne ighb o rho o ds and to the rural and natural co untryside . The drawing at right sho ws that ide a in the ce nte r o f the city. Illustration: Skidmore Owings Merrill
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The Garden City
The ide a o f the garde n city co uld he lp acco m m o date the m illio ns o f pe o ple who are co m ing - and give Ho usto n a ne w Montage: Gulf Coast Institute. Photographers: David Crossley, Diane Meredith, John Everett, Michael Hart, Bill Pogue, Lauri Combest
here is a way to have our cake and eat it, too. Houston could proceed toward a persona as “The Garden City,” in spite of our national reputation as a sprawling web of concrete and ugliness. It is easy to grow things here, and the variety is staggering. Many Houstonians have great interest and pride in our natural abundance. But another kind of garden city is the one
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idea proposed by Ebenezer Howard more than 100 years ago. Basically, the idea is to build wonderful cities that have an edge and are surrounded by greenspace. You see that pattern all over Europe and especially in England. Hundreds of these garden cities at all sizes could accommodate the 3,538,000 people we will gain - and maybe a lot of us who are already here. This kind of garden city is one in which people want to live because it is more interesting, more convenient, and more green.
EBENEZER HOWARD’S GARDEN CITY Ho ward put a 1,000-acre city o f 30,000 pe o ple inside a 5,000-acre gre e nspace (le ft). Eve n the city was large ly gre e nspace (b o tto m le ft) and re lative ly se lf-sufficie nt. In his vie w, whe n the city was b uilt o ut, ano the r o ne , gre e nspace and all, wo uld b e b uilt ne arb y and the y’d b e co nne cte d b y rail. Sixty-fo ur o f the se wo uld fit inside the City o f Ho usto n (b e lo w), and wo uld ho use 2 m illio n pe o ple - the num b e r we actually have to day. But 83% o f all the city wo uld b e gre e nspace , no t co unting the parks inside e ach unit.
Garden City diagrams: Ebenezer Howard with color enhancements by Gulf Coast Institute
Map: Gulf Coast Institute
© 1999 Michael B. Morrissey, courtesy Duany Plater-Zyberk
HOUSTON: GREEN CITY, GARDEN CITY This wall o f pho to s fro m an e xhib itio n with this nam e sho ws so m e o f the plants po ssib le in Ho usto n.
THE AMERICAN TOWN Se lf-co ntaine d with the who le varie ty o f life style cho ice s, the to wn m o ve s away fro m its urb an co re (whe re the train statio n is) thro ugh a to wnho use are a and the n o ut to the single -fam ily ne ighb o rho o ds and the n to the rural co untryside . HOUSTON PROJECT: BRIDGELAND This 10,000acre pro je ct in the Katy Prairie co uld re ach its de ve lo pm e nt go als plus 50% with two o f Ho ward’s garde n citie s o n 2,000 acre s.
TWO SCENARIOS Sce nario A, le ft, is the b ase fo re cast se e n o n page 4. Sce nario C, right, is o ne o f two pro duce d fro m the gro wth value s o f participants in last fall’s wo rksho ps. Sce nario C and B (no t sho wn) pre se rve m o re gre e nspace than A and pro vide o the r b e ne fits.
Photo: H-GAC
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Scenario A (Base Case) denotes the current development forecast for the Houston Region. It is characterized by low density housing development in the currently undeveloped portions of the region with mixeduse development along major arterials. Jobs are concentrated in the central business district and several other employment centers scattered throughout the region. Scenario B indicates the participants’ ideal growth pattern, adjusted to the regional forecast. This scenario is characterized by greater mixed-use development along major roadways and cluster development around town centers throughout the region. Scenario C (Modified Scenario) signifies the participants’ ideal growth pattern, adjusted to the forecast by county. This scenario clusters mixed-use development in satellite cities and along major roadways in a radial pattern. Jobs are dispersed throughout the region.
PLANNING THE FUTURE Participants at o ne o f the Envisio n Ho usto n Re gio n wo rksho ps.
Citizen Themes At the 2005 workshops, the following themes emerged as citizen values for transportation and land use planning: • Conservation of greenspace • Linear parks on the bayous • Respect for floodplains • More transit and less road development • The idea of mixed-use “town centers” and “urban villages” in a number of sizes • Shorter work trips
Data: H-GAC
nvision Houston Region 2035 is a process initiated by the HoustonGalveston Area Council and its partners to engage residents in a discussion of the region’s future growth and development. The process focuses on land use and transportation alternatives. It poses the question of “how and where residents will live and work in the future.” The outcomes will be used to inform the creation of the 2035 Regional Transportation Plan. The first step in the process was a series of workshops held during Fall 2005 to develop alternate land use “visions.” The second step is a round of public meetings or forums scheduled for May 2006. The purpose of the forums is three-fold: 1) discuss results from previous workshops; 2) explore the ramifications of alternative development patterns; and 3) engage the public in the discussion. Citizen input from the first round of workshops was used to develop growth scenarios representing two different types of development patterns.
Maps: Gulf Coast Institute
A Point of Leverage
If transpo rtatio n infrastructure im pacts land use , the 2035 Re gio nal Transpo rtatio n Plan ne e ds
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