The impacts of climate change on transportation in Texas

The Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation in Texas

SOCIO-ECONOMICS GROUP HARTE RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO STUDIES

June 2010

The Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation in Texas By: Carlota Santos, MBA David Yoskowitz, PhD

With assistance provided by: Emily Williamson

Report funded partially with a grant by The Energy Foundation

Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies Texas A&M University- Corpus Christi 6300 Ocean Drive, Corpus Christi, Texas 78412

Suggested Citation: Santos, C. and D.W. Yoskowitz, 2010. The Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation in Texas. Harte Research Institute. June. 62 pages.

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Climate Change and Transportation

Table of Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 I.

Introduction to Climate Change .................................................................................. 6

II.

Why Study Climate Change and its Impacts on Transportation ................................. 6

III.

Transportation Today................................................................................................... 7

IV.

Importance of Texas Transportation ........................................................................... 9

V.

Transportation System in Texas ................................................................................ 12

VI.

Transportation in the Future ..................................................................................... 18

VII.

How Will Climate Change Affect Transportation ...................................................... 19 1. Increasing Temperatures ............................................................................................ 20 2. Increasing Precipitation .............................................................................................. 23 3. Sea Level Rise .............................................................................................................. 25 4. Changes in Extreme Weather Events.......................................................................... 27 5. Additional Impacts on Transportation ........................................................................ 28

VIII.

Texas Geographic, Social and Economic Setting ....................................................... 30

IX.

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in the Transportation System ..................... 35 1. Energy Efficiency ......................................................................................................... 36 2. Biofuels ....................................................................................................................... 37 3. Public Transportation.................................................................................................. 41 4. Non‐Motorized Transport (NMT) ............................................................................... 42 5. Urban Planning ........................................................................................................... 43

X.

Policies and Measures for the Transportation Sector .............................................. 44

XI.

Economic Impacts on the Transportation Sector ...................................................... 45

XII.

Co‐Benefits and Ancillary Benefits of Transport Policies.......................................... 49

XIII.

Texas Department of Transportation: Current Strategic Plan .................................. 50

XIV.

Future Data and Research Opportunities.................................................................. 51

XV.

Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 52

References......................................................................................................................................54

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Climate Change and Transportation

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Executive Summary This report looks at the climate change impacts on transportation. Science continues to point out that modern climate change is influenced by human activities, mostly as a result of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While energy use is the major activity leading to GHG emissions (National Research Council, 2008), transportation is the second largest contributor across nations. Climate change can be manifested in several ways, including changes in temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and permanent snow and ice extent, and rising sea levels. Climate models also predict an increase in the intensity and frequency of hurricanes (National Research Council, 2008).

Transportation will be affected by climate change mainly through the occurrence of extremes weather events. Texas transportation system was built for average local climate conditions, which includes a reasonable margin for extreme experiences. If climate change pushes environmental conditions outside the limit for which the transportation system was built, the impacts will be significant. Since climate models predict changes outside that limit, it is important to take measures. The impacts will vary among different regions and although some can be beneficial, some can be costly in both human and economic terms. The negative impacts will eventually require changes in the design, planning, construction, operation, and maintenance of the transportation system (National Research Council, 2008).

Why Study Climate Change and its Impacts on Transportation?

The state’s transportation system is very important and consequently it is critical to understand the impacts climate change may have on it. According to a study by the National Research Council, climate change will adversely affect all forms of transportation in the United States (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2008). The nation’s transportation system is designed for specific weather patterns, so the occurrence of sea level rise, increased precipitation, increased temperatures, more intense heat waves, and more frequent and strong hurricanes will impact transportation systems (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2008; IPCC, 2007).

Another important reason to look at climate change and transportation is the significant impact transportation has on GHG emissions. Transportation accounts for 14% of GHG emissions and is currently the fastest growing source of GHG emissions (Urry, 2008). It is not only important to understand how climate change will affect transportation and adapt to it, but also to find transport strategies to mitigate climate change (Urry, 2008).

Transportation Today The three main drivers of the growth in the world’s vehicle fleet are pervasive urbanization, population growth, and economic development. All three factors continue to increase all over the world, so one can estimate that the world’s vehicle fleet will continue to increase in the future (Walsh, 2008). This sector will focus on current trends of the transportation sector and how transportation modes are significantly dependent on oil as their energy source.

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Climate Change and Transportation Importance of Texas Transportation This segment focuses on the importance of transportation in Texas. The state’s economy depends on a reliable transportation system. Due to its size, increasing population, and immediacy to Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, Texas transportation system affects not only Texas, but the entire country’s economy and life quality (Combs, 2009). Texas has seven of the top fifty ports in the country (in terms of total tonnage) and more products are transported to and from Texas than in any other state. Texas leads the country in total road and street mileage, total railroad mileage, and total airports and airstrips. Its increasing population will bring greater challenges for the transport system, compelling the state to increase its capacity, repair damaged infrastructures, decrease or control traffic congestion, and deal with safety issues. All of this must be done while meeting the state and country’s air pollution standards (Combs, 2009).

Economic development and the transport sector are inevitably connected. Development increases demand for transportation and reliable transportation spurs trade and economic development (IPCC, 2007). Another cause for the rise in transport energy consumption and carbon emissions is the growing size, power, and weight of passenger vehicles. Much of the improvements seen on passenger vehicles were done in these areas and not on the vehicle’s energy efficiency (IPCC, 2007). Historically, Americans have always preferred speed and performance to fuel efficiency. Yet, with higher gasoline prices consumer preferences can be shifting (Combs, 2008).

Transportation System in Texas Since a reliable transportation is very important in Texas, it is important to understand Texas’ transportation system. The Texas transportation network is a complex system of various modes that allows people and goods to circulate throughout the state and sustain national and international transportation (Savonis, Burkett, & Potter, 2008). Texas is the second largest state in the U.S. with 261,797 sq. miles (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2007), so people and goods need a reliable way to travel within the state.

During the past 25 years, Texas has seen its population grow 57% and its road use increase by 95%. Yet, its state road capacity grew only 8%, which means congestion in the state has become a problem. Studies predict that Texas population will increase by 64%, road use by 214%, and state road capacity by only 6%. Texas’ financial resources to construct new infrastructures are not increasing at a necessary pace to keep up with the increasing traveling demand (TxDOT, 2007).

In this section, several transportation modes and issues will be discussed including passenger travel, freight transport, emergency management, roadways, funding road, capacity, infrastructure maintenance, congestion, air quality, railroads, air travel, and ports.

Transport in the Future There is little doubt that the demand for transportation will continue to rise. Yet, the profile of that demand and the way it will be met will depend on different factors. First, it is not certain that oil will continue to be the dominant fuel of transport (IPCC, 2007).

Rising demand for oil, tight oil supplies and increasing oil prices have led the U.S. government to seek alternative fuels to power vehicles. However, before alternative fuels can be used widely in the state, major improvements in the production, refining and 2

Climate Change and Transportation distribution network need to occur (Combs, 2008). The second factor is the fact that the growth and shape of economic development, the major contributor to transport demand, is not certain. Third, transport technology will improve rapidly and although some technologies have already been introduced, they would only penetrate the markets once methods to further decrease their costs are presented (IPCC, 2007).

How will Climate Change Affect Transportation?

Climate change is characterized by temperature increases, changes in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and increased intensity of severe weather storms (IPCC, 2007).

The impact climate change will have on transportation will depend on the particular mode, their physical condition, and geographic location (National Research Council, 2008). Efficient transportation is essential to Texas’ economy and people’s quality of life.

As travel and the number of vehicles continue to grow, congestion becomes a concern.

Any disruption in the transportation system and in the goods and services it provides can have instant impacts ranging from irritating, such as flight delays, to catastrophic, such as the chaos created by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in Texas (Savonis et al., 2008).

In this section, the four major climate factors affecting the transport sector are discussed (increasing temperatures, increasing precipitation, rising sea levels, and changes in extreme weather events) in regards to land transportation, marine transportation, and air transportation modes.

Additional Climate Impacts on Transportation Climate change will also impact transportation indirectly. Some of these indirect impacts include economic, environmental, demographic, and security impacts.

Economic Impacts- economic impacts of climate change have received substantial attention. Some authors attempted to approximate the cost of replacing infrastructure or to place a monetary value on the loss of specific aspects of system performance. Three climate factors were analyzed in depth in published studies: changing inland water levels, thawing permafrost, and warmer temperatures in traditionally colder climates (Savonis et al., 2008).

Environmental Impacts- some of the environmental impacts studied to date have been increased dredging of inland waterways, reduced use of winter road maintenance substances, and increased frequency of shipping with the impacts it can have on the Arctic (Savonis et al., 2008).

Demographic Impacts- climate can potentially lead to a shift in travel destinations.

Higher temperatures and reduced summer cloud cover could increase the number of vacations trips per road. The Arctic region, with the opening of the Northwest Passage, can see an influx of population (Savonis et al., 2008).

Security Impacts- climate impacts on transportation will also have consequences on global diplomacy, safety, and security (Savonis et al., 2008).

Texas Geographic, Social and Economic Setting The Texas Gulf Coast, a low-lying flat land neighboring the subtropical waters of the Gulf of Mexico is especially vulnerable to major hurricanes. Hurricane Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Ike in 2008 affected seriously the transportation system. Major highways and bridges were severely damaged or destroyed, which caused rerouting of traffic and that 3

Climate Change and Transportation placed extra stress on other routes. Barge shipping and export grain traffic were disrupted and the pipeline network shutdown, creating shortages of petroleum products and natural gas (National Research Council, 2008). Yet, the same area that is vulnerable to hurricanes is also attractive to businesses and industries. According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the most serious impact of climate change on North America’s transportation system will be coastal flooding, mostly on the Gulf Coast, due to sea level rise and aggravated by storm surge and land subsidence (National Research Council, 2008).

Lessons should be taken from the vulnerability of the transport system if violent storms like hurricanes happen again.

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in the Transportation System Adaptation strategies include five mitigating options, energy efficiency, biofuels, public transport, non-motorized transport, and urban planning, and these are discusses in this section. These strategies have not only the potential to mitigate impacts of global warming, but they can also bring economic benefits that could significantly impact how transportation system is designed in the future (Batac & Lem, 2008). Implementing them can result in positive social, economic, and environmental consequences (IPCC, 2007).

Strategies can also include measures to adapt to the impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructures. In addition, technology based approaches can be implemented to reduce GHG emissions in the transportation sector (Walsh, 2008). They include: • Setting obligatory or voluntary fuel efficiency or GHG emission standards.

• Switching to lower-carbon fuels and improved vehicle technologies.

• Decreasing the use of motorized vehicles.

• Policies and Measures for the Transportation Sector Local actions within the United Nations to reduce GHG emissions in the transport sector are becoming increasingly more frequent since the federal Government is not taking measures. The types of measures depend on the state’s needs, capacity, and capabilities (Batac & Lem, 2008). Contrarily, there are also many other policies that lead unintentionally to increases in GHG emissions. Depending on its perspective, transport subsidies can do that (IPCC, 2007). Policies and measures to be applied in the transportation sector will be discussed here.

Economic Impacts on the Transportation System Transportation systems exist to enable the movement of people and goods and are a crucial part of the state’s social and economic panorama (Savonis et al., 2008). One way to find economic estimates about the impacts brought by climate change on transportation is given by Suarez et al. (2005) in his Boston-area study. The author considered some of the consequences of flooding on metropolitan transportation (Suarez, Anderson, Mahal, & Lakshmanan, 2005), including some trips being cancelled, some trips being delayed, and some trips not happening. All these disruptions carry economic costs because each trip has a value. Traveler’s time has also a value and thus, lost time due to traffic congestion or longer routes carry significant costs. The economic costs of climate change impacts on transportation will be discussed in this segment.

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Climate Change and Transportation Co-Benefits and Ancillary Benefits of Transportation Policies Climate change is usually not the main focus of decision makers in the transportation sector. Policies and measures are usually aimed at reducing air pollution and congestion, achieving energy security, improving access to transport facilities, and recovering from expenses on infrastructure development. Thus, decreasing GHG emissions is often considered a co-benefit of transport policies rather than the main goal. Transport policies can provide several different benefits. Motorized traffic is related to local air pollution and GHGs and may also stimulate congestion, accidents, and noise. Policies aimed at reducing motorized vehicles can bring several co-benefits such as improved health, less air pollution, and reduced GHG emissions. Addressing all these issues at once can significantly decrease costs as well as health and environmental risks. In this section, the ancillary benefits of transportation policies are discussed.

Texas Department of Transportation: current strategic plan In this section, the Texas Department of Transportation strategic plan will be discussed.

The plan was developed to improve the transportation system and its goals are to reduce congestion, enhance safety, expand economic opportunity, improve air quality, and lastly to increase the value of transportation assets. Its mission is to provide safe and efficient means for movement of people and goods throughout the state.

Future data and research opportunities To better respond and adapt to the impacts of climate change on transportation, future research is needed. According to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (Savonis et al., 2008), some of the areas that need to be improved include: integration of site-specific data, additional and improved climate data and projections, effects of climate change on freight transport demand, demographic response to climate change, design standards and reconstruction and adaptation costs, new materials and technologies, pipelines, land use and climate change interactions, emergency management planning/coordination/modeling, secondary and national economic impacts, and site-specific impacts. This last section of the report will look at these areas of future data and research opportunities in more detail.

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Climate Change and Transportation

I. Introduction to Climate Change Science continues to point out that modern climate change is influenced by human activities, mostly as a result of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While energy use is the major activity leading to GHG emissions (National Research Council, 2008) transportation is the second biggest contributor across nations (Figure 1). However in some countries, such as Canada, transportation is the largest contributor to GHG emissions, which brings evidence that emissions from cars, trucks, planes, trains, and other modes play a significant role on climate change (Woudsma, 2003).

Figure 1: Global GHG Emissions by Sector

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector 21%

27%

Transportation Energy Industries Other

15% Small Combustion 1% 36%

Industry

Source: Woudsma, 2003.

Climate change can be manifested in several ways, including changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and rising sea levels. Additionally, some climate models predict an increase in the intensity of hurricanes (National Research Council, 2008).

Transportation will be affected by climate change mainly through the occurrence of extremes. The United States and Texas transportation system were built for average local climate conditions, which includes a reasonable margin for extreme experiences. If climate change pushes environmental conditions outside the limit for which the transportation system was built, then the impacts will be significant. Since climate models project changes outside that limit, it is important to take measures. The impacts will vary among different regions and although some can be beneficial, some can be costly in both human and economic terms. The negative impacts will eventually require changes in the design, planning, construction, operation, and maintenance of the transportation system (National Research Council, 2008).

II. Why Study Climate Change and its Impacts on Transportation?

Transportation is an essential part of our lives. It is what allows us to go to work, to go to school, enjoy leisure times, stay in touch with friends and family, and maintain our homes. Texas network of highways, public transit, marine, rail and aviation modes are 6

Climate Change and Transportation critical to our well-being (Savonis et al., 2008). Cities could not exist and global trade would not happen if we did not have a system to transport people and goods effectively and cheaply (IPCC, 2007). Businesses rely heavily on dependable transportation services to transport and receive products and materials from and to customers. A strong and reliable transportation network is fundamental to the economy and the state's social future (Savonis et al., 2008).

Since the state’s transportation system is so important, it is critical to understand the impacts climate change may have on it. According to a study by the National Research Council, climate change will adversely affect all forms of transportation in the United States (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2008). The nation’s transportation system is designed for specific weather patterns that may no longer be dependable given the occurrence of weather extremes. Rising sea levels, increased precipitation, increased temperatures, more intense heat waves, and more frequent and strong hurricanes will influence transportation ((American Society of Civil Engineers, 2008; IPCC, 2007) Motorized transport relies on oil for almost all of its fuel and accounts for nearly half of the world’s oil consumption. Thus, the transportation sector faces a challenge in the future given its dependence on oil. Potential future options and policies to mitigate climate change must be taken into account (IPCC, 2007).

The significant impact transportation has on GHG emissions is another reason why we should focus on transportation and climate change. Transportation accounts for 14% of GHG emissions, with the majority of these emissions generated by the road transport sector (Hensher, 2008). With an increase of 23.4%, transport was the second fastest growth sector in GHG emissions over the period 1990-2004 (Hensher, 2008) and is currently the fastest growing source of GHG emissions (Urry, 2008). The main driver for this growth is the ongoing increase in household incomes and number of vehicles on the road (Hensher, 2008). In 1800, in the United States people traveled 50 meters a day, now they travel 50 kilometers a day. Currently, world citizens travel 23 billion kilometers, but by 2050 it is estimated that these numbers will increase fourfold to 106 billion. Seeing this, it is not only important to understand how climate change will affect transportation and adapt to it, but also to find transport strategies to mitigate climate change. There are alternatives to carbon-based fuels to power vehicles, which will decrease GHG emissions and help mitigate climate change (Urry, 2008).

III. Transportation Today Fast and reliable transportation of people and materials is essential for today’s modern society (Combs, 2008). The transportation sector represents a crucial element in energy use and emissions of GHGs. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the majority of increased CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2000 came from the transportation sector (Frank, Kavage, & Appleyard, 2007). In 2004, transportation energy represented 26% of total world energy use and the transport sector accounted for 23% of the world’s energy-related GHG emissions (IPCC, 2007). Between 1990 and 2002, the rise in energy consumption in the transport sector was the highest of any other end-use sector (IPCC, 2007). From a total 77 EJ5 (Exajoule) of transport energy use, road vehicles represent over three-quarters (Table 1; IPCC, 2007). As a share of the country’s total energy usage, transportation has been increasing steadily since 1973 (Combs, 2008).

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Climate Change and Transportation Table 1: World Transport Energy Use in 2000, by mode

Source: IPCC, 2007.

The three main drivers of the growth in the world’s vehicle fleet are pervasive urbanization, population growth, and economic development. All three factors continue to increase all over the world, so one can estimate that the world’s vehicle fleet will continue to increase in the future (Figure 2). In 2002, the global vehicle fleet totaled 1 billion and it has increased steadily since (Walsh, 2008).

Figure 2: World motor vehicle population

Source: Walsh, 2008.

Nearly all (96.5%) of transport energy comes from oil fuels (Table 2), mostly diesel (31%) and gasoline (47%) (Combs, 2008; IPCC, 2007). The use of these fuels has an effect on human health and the environment. As demand for fossil fuels continues to increase, the United States and Texas production continues to decrease, which makes them increasingly vulnerable to political unstable regions of the world, where oil is produced. Decreasing production, together with supply disruptions due to political conflicts around the world, have led to increased gasoline prices (Combs, 2008).

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Climate Change and Transportation Table 2: U.S. and Texas Transportation Fuel Sources, 2005 (Trillion Btu)

Source: Combs, 2008. * Natural Gas used in the transportation sector is consumed in the operation of pipelines, primarily in compressors and gas consumed as vehicle fuel. ** On the original EIA document, ethanol is listed twice: once as blended into motor gasoline and also separately, to display the use of renewable energy by the transportation sector. *** Ethanol and electricity used for transportation in Texas together account for 0.1% of all transportation fuel used in the state.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that the consumption of gasoline will continue to increase in the U.S., as total miles traveled prevail over energy efficiency of current vehicles. This will lead to increased imports of crude oil and refined products (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2009).

IV. Importance of Texas Transportation Texas economy depends on a reliable transportation system. Due to its size, increasing population, and immediacy to Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, Texas transportation system affects not only Texas, but the entire country’s economy and life quality (Combs, 2009).

According to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Texas has seven of the top fifty ports in the country (in terms of total tonnage) and more products are transported to and from Texas than in any other state. Texas also leads the country in total road and street mileage (300,000 miles), total railroad mileage (over 10,000 miles) and total airports and airstrips (around 1,800). Texas has 423 miles of intra-coastal waterways along its coast, 28 ports, and 49,829 bridges. Its increasing population will also bring greater challenges for the transport system, compelling the state to increase its capacity, repair damaged infrastructures, decrease or control traffic congestion, and deal with safety issues. All of this must be done while meeting the state and country’s air pollution standards (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2010).

Population density in the country’s coastal counties is significantly higher than the national average of 98 persons per square mile. This number increases even more during the summer when tourists visit coastal areas and their beaches. Coastal populations are predicted to continue increasing as these areas are attractive retirement and tourist destinations (National Research Council, 2008). Texas is one the largest maritime state, with over 1,000 miles of inland channels and eleven deepwater seaports, accounting for seventeen percent of the state’s gross state product (Texas Transportation Institute, 2010).

Its coastal population will have more than double between 1960 and 2010, from 2.4

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Climate Change and Transportation million to 5.8 million, according to projections by the Comptroller’s office (Redwine, 2006).

Growing coastal populations will increase the demand for transportation and the difficulty for an evacuation in case of an emergency, stressing the importance of a reliable transportation system. Sea level rise will aggravate this situation, turning infrastructure and housing in low-lying areas even more unstable and vulnerable to flooding and storm urges. Several coastal highways in the state of Texas are exposed to periodic coastal storm flooding and wave action. Some of these highways serve as evacuation routes during hurricanes and other storms, a service that can be compromised in the future (National Research Council, 2008).

Coastal areas are also major economic areas. Two of the top 10 U.S. foreign trade freight gateways, by value of shipments, are located in Texas: Laredo and Houston.

Texas is the number one state with pipeline transportation establishments, 580 establishments in 2005; the second state is Louisiana with only 217 (National Research Council, 2008) Texas is also home for much of the country’s oil and gas industries. Its operating refineries have the capacity to produce over 26% of the country's total production. In 2002, the value of refinery shipments was about 27.3% of the country’s total refinery shipments. Two-thirds of all U.S. petrochemical production and nearly one-third of the country's petroleum industry are located along the channels of the Texas Gulf Coast (Redwine, 2006). Additionally, Texas is the largest chemical producer, with 14% of the country’s value of chemical output; at least 124 of Texas’ 254 counties have some type of chemical production (The Petroleum Refining and Chemical Products Cluster Team, 2005).

Economic development and the transport sector are inevitably connected.

Development increases demand for transportation and reliable transportation spurs trade and economic development. Industrialization and globalization have also increased the demand for transportation and the number of trades and flows. A current trend has been the decentralization of cities. Cities have spread faster than their population and there has been a quick growth of suburban areas and “edge cities” in the outer suburbs. This decentralization has increased the demand for travel and an urban life that is not easily met by public transportation. The consequence was the rise of personal vehicles and a decline in sharing of transportation (IPCC, 2007).

Increasing distances between home and work led to a decline of walking and bicycling. According to Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), 79.4% of workers in Texas drive alone in a car, truck, or van, 12.5% carpool, 1.9% use public transportation, 1.8% walk, and 1.4% use other means (Figure 3; (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2007). Thus, although there is an increasing demand to access services and products, it is critical to living conditions to improve transportation while reducing the negative consequences of motorization, namely GHG emissions (IPCC, 2007).

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Climate Change and Transportation Figure 3: Texas Workers Commuting Drive Alone (Car, truck, or van) Carpool (Car, truck, or van) Use Public Transportation

79% 13%

Walk 2% 2%

Other Means

3% 1% Work From Home Source: (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2007).

Telecommuting, carpooling, and simple measure like proper tire inflation and slower driving speed can all reduce fuel consumption. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that fuel efficiency could be improved by 7-23% if drivers would travel no faster than 60 miles per hour (U.S. Department of Energy & U.S. Environmental Protection Energy, n.d.).

Another cause for the rise in transport energy consumption and carbon emissions is the growing size, power, and weight of passenger vehicles. Much of the improvements seen on passenger vehicles were done in these areas and not on the vehicle’s energy efficiency (IPCC, 2007). Historically, Americans have always preferred speed and performance to fuel efficiency, however, with higher gasoline prices consumer preferences can be shifting. A congressional Budget Office (CBO) study found that, with higher gasoline prices, highway drivers make fewer trips and drive more slowly. During weekdays, for every 50 cents increase in gasoline prices, highway trips decreased by about 0.7%, in areas where rail transit represented a transportation alternative. Although these behaviors show some responsiveness to increased gasoline prices, consumers are still not very responsive to short-term increases and that is mainly due to higher salaries, which made gasoline expenses represent a smaller share of consumers’ disposable income (U.S. Congressional Budget Office, 2008). The same study found that with higher gasoline prices, purchases of light trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and minivans have been decreasing since 2004. Sales of smaller and more efficient cars, on the other hand, have been increasing during that same period. The study noted that since 2004, the average fuel economy of new vehicles has increased by over a mile per gallon (U.S. Congressional Budget Office, 2008).

An EIA weekly update on petroleum consumption (“This week in Petroleum”) published on February 27, 2008 indicated that the four-week average demand for gasoline was 1.1% lower than during the same period in 2007. This change in consumer behavior was due to a struggling economy and higher fuel prices (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2008).

Another trend seen is as income increases, travelers shift to faster and more energyintensive vehicles: from walking to bicycling, to public transport to automobiles, and for 11

Climate Change and Transportation longer trips to airplanes (IPCC, 2007). Additionally, as income and travel increased, so did traveling by automobiles. In the U.S., automobile travel accounts for 90% of total travel. Intercity and international travel is also increasing at a rapid pace, mostly due to a rise in international investments, lower trade restrictions, and increasing incomes and international migration. In the U.S., intercity travel accounts for one-fifth of total travel and is led by auto and air (IPCC, 2007).

Globalization and industrialization have spurred freight transport, which now accounts for 35% of all transport energy. Freight transport can stress the importance of fuel-efficiency improvements to cut costs. Yet, this can be offset by the need to increase the speed and reliability of the trips (IPCC, 2007). Since nearly all transport energy comes from oil fuels (95%), (mostly diesel (31%) and gasoline (47%)), traveling releases significant amounts of GHGs. The input of transport to GHG emissions was about 23%, with an increase of CO2 emissions of about 27% since 1990 (IPCC, 2007).

There is a trend of increasing demand for transportation. However, factors such as persistent high fuel prices, concerns about declining fuel supplies, government regulation, and the environmental impacts of using fossil fuels will impact consumer choice and behavior. Consumers will eventually determine if more fuel-efficient vehicles are built, if alternative fuels increase their market share, and how many resource manufacturers to allocate for developing alternatives vehicles (U.S. Congressional Budget Office, 2002).

As consequence, to effectively plan for future adaption strategies as a response to climate change, it is important to understand the transportation system in Texas.

V. Transportation System in Texas The Texas transportation network is a complex system of various modes that allows people and goods to circulate throughout the state and sustains national and international transportation (Savonis et al., 2008). Texas is the second largest state in the U.S. with 261,797 sq. miles (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2007). People and goods need a reliable way to travel within the state. During the past 25 years, Texas has seen its population grow 57% and its road use increase by 95%. Yet, its state road capacity grew only 8%, which means congestion in the state has become a problem. Future scenarios only seem to aggravate the situation (Figure 4). Studies predict that Texas population will increase by 64%, road use by 214%, and state road capacity by only 6%. Additionally, Texas’ financial resources to construct new infrastructures are not increasing at a necessary pace to keep up with the increasing traveling demand (TxDOT, 2007).

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Climate Change and Transportation Figure 4: Current and Future Texas Population by County

Source: TxDOT, 2007.

Passenger travel Passenger travel is provided by various modes including transit, highway, rail, and aviation. Roads represent the most geographically extensive transportation system (305,270 miles) with automobiles as the principal mean for passenger travel (8.6 million automobiles registered as of 2006) (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2007). In 2006, a total of 238,256 million highway vehicle-miles were traveled in the state’s 79,849 miles of highways. Additionally, 44,570 personal vehicles crossed the U.S.-Mexico border through Texas (Table 3).

Public transportation is very important, especially in urban areas, since it carries passengers more efficiently in densely populated areas than automobiles do. It relieves congestion too. Public transit is especially important for those who do not own a car or cannot rely on automobiles for transport. The majority of transit is made by scheduled bus services. However, there are also ferries, light rail, and unscheduled paratransit vans and minibuses. Airports are also important, especially since the state is so large. Several major airports support larger cities in Texas and numerous other airports outside metropolitan areas serve smaller markets. Smaller regional airports can be very important in case of an emergency to transport medical supplies and patients (Savonis et al., 2008).

Texas has a total of 1,955 airports, the highest number seen in any state in the country (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010a).

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Climate Change and Transportation Table 3: Incoming Personal Vehicle Crossings, US-Mexico Border: 2000-2006 (Thousands)

State Arizona California New Mexico

Texas Total

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

10,304 30,018 467

10,102 30,160 574

10,428 31,946 765

9,913 32,675 650

10,196 34,554 579

9,780 35,146 622

8,747 34,286 694

50,368

48,691

46,710

44,831

45,805

46,009

44,570

91,157

89,527

89,849

88,068

91,134

91,556

88,296

Source: (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010a).

Freight Transport Texas had a total of $589 billion in export freight shipping in 2002, the second highest amount in the U.S. (California being first) (U.S. Census Bureau, 2010a). It has a total of 44 freight railroads divided as Class I 1 (Table 4), Regional, Local, and Switching and Terminal 2 (Savonis et al., 2008).

In freight transport, Texas is the leading state in hazardous material 3 shipments by state of origin and state of destination (ranked by tons and according to the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey) (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2004, p.22). Coal is the top commodity (by weight) for shipments terminating in the state and chemicals the top commodity for shipments originating in the state. In waterborne shipments, Texas is the second state in the country with most tons shipped (488.357 million tons shipped in 2006). In the top 50 U.S. ports, eight are in Texas and the number one is Houston. In the top 50 U.S. Foreign Trade Freight Gateways (2006), Texas has the most representations by state; with nine gateways comprised of land, water, and air ports (California has five gateways). In freight transport, Texas is in the lead as one of the states with more transportation activity (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2007).

Emergency Management For emergency management and evacuation, the majority of transportation infrastructure is provided by interstate and arterial roadways. Although public transportation also exists, it relies on public highways to circulate. Relying on only one mode of transportation represents a problem if during an emergency the highway is damaged, inaccessible, or congested. Existing infrastructure is limited to accommodate an evacuation during a major emergency, as it was illustrated during the 2005 hurricane season in Texas. Evacuating a significant portion of the population from a large metropolitan area like Houston can be very problematic and often hard to accomplish in an arranged and appropriate manner. Managing the transportation infrastructure and analyzing its available capability depends upon a reliable means of gathering real-time traffic information and efficient communication systems throughout the state. TranStar 1

According to the Association of American Railroads, a Class I railroad is a railroad with operating revenues of at least $346.8 million.

2 A Switching and Terminal Railroad is a non-class I Railroad doing primarily switching and/or terminal services for other railroads.

3 Hazardous materials are divided by the U.S. Department of Transportation into 9 classes: explosives, gases, flammable liquids, flammable solid, oxidizers and organic peroxides, toxic materials and infectious substances, radioactive materials, corrosive materials, and miscellaneous dangerous goods, respectively (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2004).

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Climate Change and Transportation Traffic Management Center in Houston is an advanced transportation management system capable of obtaining accurate real-time data to base management decisions (Savonis et al., 2008).

Roadways Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) is responsible for maintaining and improving the state’s highway system and distributing state and federal money for the construction and maintenance of local roads and streets. In 2007, the state highway system had approximately 79,645 centerline miles of roads (traveled in one direction), which included 28,357 miles of U.S. and state highways carrying 36% of traffic (Texas Legislative Budget Board, 2007). Highways are another means of moving products.

Trucks transport more products in, out, or within the state than any other type of transportation. In 2002, close to one billion tons of freight (worth $866 billion) were transported by truck in Texas, representing about 46% of all freight transported in the state during that year. This number is expected to increase to 53% by 2035 (Federal Highway Administration, 2010).

Funding Funding to the Texas Transportation System comes mainly from state and federal motor fuels taxes, federal transportation aid, motor vehicle registration fees, bond proceeds and toll road revenue. The total value for these funds was close to $7.7 billion in fiscal year 2007 (Table 4). In addition to these funds, TxDOT can also use construction funds from the Texas Mobility Fund (TMF), which compiles money collected mainly from drivers with traffic violations (Texas Legislative Budget Board, 2007).

Table 4: State Highway Fund, Fiscal 2007, in millions

Revenue Sources

Dollars

Percent

Federal Funds State motor fuel tax Vehicle Registration Bond proceeds Other

3,023.3 2,227.1 969.8 1,000.0 455.2

39.4% 29.0% 12.6% 13.0% 5.9%

Total State Highway Fund

7,675.4

100.0%

Source: Texas Legislative Budget Board, 2007.

Road Capacity In fiscal year 2006, Texas had 20.1 million registered vehicles, the second highest number in the country after California. It had, in the same year, an average of 1.1 registered vehicles per citizen of driving age (Texas Department of Transportation, 2007; U.S. Census Bureau, 2010b). During the past 25 years, Texas’ population increased 57% and road usage increased 95%. Yet, the state’s road capacity increased by only 8%. If current financing patterns remain the same, over the next 25 years TxDOT estimates that Texas’ population will increase by another 64%, road usage by 214%, and state road capacity by only 6% (Figure 5; Texas Department of Transportation, 2006). As seen in 15

Climate Change and Transportation figure 5, in 15 areas road usage increased 45% faster than the state’s road capacity, which logically leads to an increase in congestion.

Figure 5: Road Growth and Mobility Level

Source: Schrank & Lomax, 2007.

The needed transportation projects to achieve an adequate level of mobility by 2030 are expected to be worth $188 billion however, TxDOT will only provide $102 billion, which leaves the state of Texas with a major funding gap of $86 billion to fill (Texas Department of Transportation, 2006).

Infrastructure Maintenance The conservation and maintenance of Texas highway system is a responsibility of TxDOT. This includes roadway surface improvement, bridge and drainage structure inspection and maintenance, road base repairs, and road sign and traffic signal repair. It also includes litter cleanup, rest area maintenance, roadside mowing, and the repair of damage caused by flooding, hurricanes, and other extreme weather events. Eighty five percent of TxDOT funding, not including money from the Texas Mobility Fund, is spent on maintenance of existing transportation infrastructure (Combs, 2009; Texas Department of Transportation, 2007). Maintenance funding is also used to sustain portions of the Intracoastal Waterway and two toll-free ferry systems (Texas Legislative Budget Board, 2007, p. 342).

Congestion Mobility is essential for Texans’ lifestyles. Texas increasing population and road usage create traffic congestion, which have a debilitating effect on Texans’ quality of life.

According to the Texas Transportation Institute’s (TTI) 2007 Annual Urban Mobility Report, congestion in 2005 was the cause of 4.2 billion hours of travel delay and 2.9 billion gallons of wasted fuel in urban areas in the U.S. (Texas has nine of the top 85 largest urban areas). TTI suggests using mass transit, such as buses and commuter or 16

Climate Change and Transportation “light” rail to help congested areas deal with their mobility problems (Schrank & Lomax, 2007).

Air Quality Air pollution impacts negatively human health, deteriorates buildings, and damages crops and ecosystems (Creutzig & He, 2008). Improving air quality is not only very important to improve Texans’ health and quality of life, but to mitigate climate change as well. Decreasing GHG emissions and thus complying with the Clean Air Act standards can also prevent the state from losing federal highway dollars that are fundamental to the state’s transportation system. The 1992 Federal Energy Policy required state governments to obtain light-duty vehicles driven by alternative fuels and to progressively switch their fleet to alternative fuels (Office of Legislative Audits, 2002). Since that date, the number of vehicles powered by alternative fuels has increased significantly, reaching 10.5 million vehicles in the country (as of March, 2007) (Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, 2007). In Texas, 966,000 vehicles, or about 5% of all vehicles registered in the state, are hybrids, flexible-fuel vehicles, or vehicles with the capacity to use alternative fuels (Combs, 2008).

Railroads Texas economy depends largely on reliable railways. Rail is one of the major ways of transporting goods in and out of the state. In 2002 in Texas, near 271 million tons of freight (12.5% of the total), worth close to $66 billion were transported by rail (Federal Highway Administration, 2010). Texas has more railroad tracks than any other state, with over 10,000 miles. Many people argue that the state needs to diversify its transportation modes by increasing the use of public transportation. To make this possible, several cities have invested in buses, light rail and heavy rail systems. The cities in the state that have rail transit service include the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Dallas area rapid transit (DART), and the Houston Metroplex (Combs, 2009).

Air travel Texas has a total of 1,955 airports, the highest number in any state in the U.S. (US Department of Transportation, 2000). Of those, 303 are public-use airports and the others are privately-used airports and airstrips. About 61,900 Texans work in aviation (with annual salaries of $2.5 billion) generating a total economic input of $8.7 billion (Texas Department of Transportation, 2005). Besides passenger travel, air freight transport plays an important role in the Texas economy. Economic development demands more air cargo capacity and that can be seen in both Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and Houston.

However, air freight transport accounts for a small portion of all freight transport. In 2002, less than 1% of all freight was moved by air and this trend is not expected to increase by 2035 (Federal Highway Administration, 2010).

Ports Ports are essential to Texas economy (like air transport and railroads), providing shipping access to international areas such as Mexico, Central and South America, Europe, Asia and Africa. Texas has 28 ports, of which four (Houston, Beaumont, Corpus Christi, and Texas City) were in the top ten U.S. ports for total cargo tonnage in 2005. In 17

Climate Change and Transportation that same year, Texas was the state with more total tonnage of products imported by waterway or seaport, about 20% of the U.S. total (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2010). Annually, Texas ports generate $9 billion in federal import income tax revenue and together Texas marine and intermodal transportation produce near $65 billion, or about 10% of the gross state product. The Gulf Intercoastal Waterway (GIWW) links Texas ports with the rest of the country and moves over 73 million tons of cargo every year, the equivalent to over 570,000 rail cars (Texas Ports Association, 2010).

VI. Transport in the Future There is little doubt that the demand for transportation will continue to rise. Yet, the profile of that demand and the way it will be met will depend on different factors. First, it is not certain that oil will continue to be the dominant fuel of transport (IPCC, 2007).

Rising demand for oil, tight oil supplies, and increasing oil prices have led the U.S. government to seek alternative fuels to power vehicles. Alternative fuels to gasoline are usually considered non-petroleum fuels or other alternatives to gasoline and diesel. They include natural gas, methanol, ethanol, electricity, propane, hydrogen/fuel cells, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), non-petroleum diesel (from vegetable and animal fats), and fuel blends such as biodiesel and gasoline/ethanol mixtures. Hybrid vehicles that combine gasoline or diesel engines with electric power are also included (Combs, 2008).

As said before, approximately 5% of all vehicles in Texas, or about 966,000 vehicles are considered alternative fuel vehicles because they run either partially or totally on a fuel other than gasoline. However, because clean diesel, natural gas, biodiesel and flexible fuel are not broadly available in the state, most of these vehicles run on regular gasoline and diesel. Therefore, before alternative fuels can be used widely in the state, major improvements in the production, refining and distribution network need to occur (Combs, 2008; U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2007). The second factor is the fact that the growth and shape of economic development, the major contributor to transport demand, is not certain. Third, transport technology will improve rapidly.

Although some technologies have already been introduced, they would only penetrate the markets once methods to further decrease their costs are presented (IPCC, 2007).

Current trends in developing countries show that higher income will lead to higher dependence on private cars. Yet, other alternatives exist to offset this trend. The future choices made by individuals and governments will make a big difference in the future demand for transport energy and CO2 emissions. Three forecasts on the future of transport concluded that world transport energy use over the next few decades will increase at an annual rate of 2% worldwide. This means that by 2030, it will be 80% higher than in 2002 and as a consequence CO2 emissions will also increase. In the U.S., EIA projects that transport energy will increase 1.7% per year, with moderate population and travel increase and small improvements in efficiency This means that by 2025, transport energy will be 46% higher than in 2002 (IPCC, 2007).

The sectors spurring world transport energy rise are mainly light-duty vehicles, freight trucks and air travel. A projection by a Mobility 2030 study states that these three sectors will account for 38, 27, and 23% respectively of the total transport energy between 2000 and 2050 (IPCC, 2007).

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Climate Change and Transportation Aviation Civil aviation is one of the fastest growing transport means in the world. Despite the terrorist attacks and SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), analysis show that traffic has increased at an average rate of 3.8% between 2001 and 2005 and is currently growing at 5.9% annually. Domestic traffic in North America grew at 2.65% per year in 2005 and several forecasts predict an average annual passenger traffic growth of 5% (IPCC, 2007).

Shipping Ninety percent of global merchandise is transported by sea. Sea transport is for many regions and countries the most important method of transport for trade. Crude oil and oil products lead the demand for shipping services in ton-miles at 40% in 2005. In that same year, the world merchant fleet increased by 7.2% (IPCC, 2007).

VII. How Will Climate Change Affect Transportation?

Climate change is characterized by temperature increases, changes in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and increased intensity of severe weather storms (IPCC, 2007).

The impact climate change will have on transportation will depend on the particular mode, their physical condition, and geographic location (National Research Council, 2008). The next section focuses on identifying and predicting such impacts.

Efficient transportation is essential to Texas’ economy and people’s quality of life. As travel and the number of vehicles continue to grow, congestion becomes a concern.

Investments in highways and transit alone reach $110 billion nationwide and Federal funds to passenger rail totals nearly $2 billion a year. Additionally, more investments are made by the private sector in freight rail, airports, and ports. With so much money invested, it is clear the importance Americans place on the transportation system. Any disruption in the transportation system and in the goods and services it provides can have instant impacts ranging from irritating, such as flight delays, to catastrophic, such as the chaos created by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in Texas (Savonis et al., 2008) The four major climate factors affecting the transport sector are: increasing temperatures, increasing precipitation, rising sea levels, and changes in extreme weather events (Savonis et al., 2008). Moderate changes in the mean climate have little impact on infrastructure since the system is built to accommodate changing weather conditions. The problem is with extreme climate changes, especially when they push environmental conditions outside the limit for which the transport system was designed. The major impacts are briefly summarized on Table 5 and discussed in more detail below (Table 5).

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Climate Change and Transportation Table 5: Climate Factors and its Impact on transportation

Climate Factor

Climate Impact on Transportation

Increasing Temperatures

Damage infrastructure, decrease water levels on inland waterways, decrease ice cover in the Arctic, and melt permafrost foundations.

Increasing precipitation

Damage infrastructure and soil conditions.

Rising sea levels

Changes in extreme weather events

Inundate coastal infrastructure.

Damage infrastructure and operations due to increased storm intensity, although winter snowstorms may actually become less frequent.

Source: Savonis et al., 2008.

1. Increasing Temperatures Increasing temperatures can potentially impact several sources of transportation, predominantly surface transportation. The most common consequences are pavement damage, less lift and fuel efficiency for airplanes, rail buckling, and the consequences of lower inland water levels: reduced ice cover on seaways, thawing permafrost, and an increased vegetation (Savonis et al., 2008).

Land Transportation Modes- Land transportation modes include pipelines, highways (including bridges and tunnels), rail (private and public), and vehicles using these facilities- cars, trucks, buses, rail, and rail transit cars (National Research Council, 2008). While changes in average temperatures can have moderate impacts on transportation, extreme heat can have serious consequences (Savonis et al., 2008).

Pavement Damage- The quality of highway pavement is one major issue for temperate climates, where more extreme summer temperatures and/or more recurrent freeze/thaw cycles may be experienced. Extremely hot days during an extended period of time can result in rutting of the highway pavement and faster breakdown of asphalt seal binders, which leads to potholing, cracking, and bleeding. This can lead to damages in the structural integrity of the road and/or cause the pavement to become more slippery when wet (Savonis et al., 2008). These problems will likely increase since the number of days above 32°C (90°F) is estimated to increase from the current 77 to a range of 99 to 131 days over the next century. Adaption procedures include frequent maintenance, applying more heat resistant asphalt, and milling out ruts. It would also be prudent for future designers to make sure joints in steel and concrete bridge superstructures and concrete road surfaces can effectively tolerate thermal expansion as a consequence of increased temperatures (Savonis et al., 2008).

Rail buckling- Rail buckling occurs more often in temperate climates with occurrence of extremely hot days. It can cause rail line deformation and speed restrictions and, if ignored or unnoticed, the derailment of trains (National Research Council, 2008; 20

Climate Change and Transportation Savonis et al., 2008). Adaptation procedures include better monitoring of rail temperatures and eventually more track maintenance, replacing it when and if needed (Savonis et al., 2008).

Vegetation growth- The growing season of deciduous trees may increase, causing more slipperiness on railroads and roads and visual obstruction due to more vegetation.

Adaptation measures may include planting more low-maintenance vegetation along the roads and rails and improved management of leaf foliage (Wooler, 2004).

Reduced ice cover- Reduced ice cover is potentially a positive thing because it brings additional shipping days on cold areas due to less persistent ice cover (Savonis et al., 2008). It can also reduce adverse environmental impacts caused by the use of salt and chemicals on roads and bridges, can widen the construction season, and improve the mobility and safety of passenger and freight travel through fewer winter hazards (National Research Council, 2008).

More Freeze-Thaw Conditions- More freeze-thaw conditions may occur, leading to frost heaves and potholes. Roads, railroads, and airstrips are all susceptible to this (National Research Council, 2008; Savonis et al., 2008). Adaptation will vary according to the level of thawing, but some resources may need rehabilitation, relocation, and different construction methods (Savonis et al., 2008).

Pipelines- Pipelines are more protected from higher temperatures than other land transportation modes due to the insulating effects of soil and water. The great majority of pipelines are buried under at least 91 cm (3 ft) of soil cover. Since pipelines are designed to carry product at significant temperature variations, no significant effects derived from increased (or decreased temperature) are expected to occur (Savonis et al., 2008).

Other- Longer construction seasons may occur due to fewer cold days in cold climates, as well as a decrease of ice loads on structures such as piers and bridges, which will allow them to be built for less stress (Savonis et al., 2008).

Marine Transportation- Marine transportation includes ports and harbors, supporting intermodal terminals, and the ships that use these infrastructures. The impacts of climate change are expected to be different between coastal and inland waterways (National Research Council, 2008).

Warmer temperatures- Warming winter temperatures would be beneficial in northern coastal areas. During winter, warmer temperatures would reduce problems with ice accumulation on vessels, riggings, decks, and docks. Warming temperatures and melting ice are likely to lead to increased variability in yearly shipping conditions and to increase costs associated with stronger ships and support systems (National Research Council, 2008). According to Savonis et al. (2008), higher temperatures will affect port facilities in three ways: 1. Increased costs of terminal construction and maintenance 2. Higher energy consumption and higher costs for refrigerated warehouses 3. Increased stress on temperature-sensitive structures.

When building new structures, materials and surfaces able to tolerate higher temperatures should be used to counteract climate impacts. Additionally, higher energy consumption

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Climate Change and Transportation can lead to increased consumption of fossil fuels and consequently increased shipments of coal and other energy supplies that pass through Texas’ coast (Savonis et al., 2008).

Reduced water levels- Reduced water levels cause ships to carry less cargo and consequently shipping costs increase. Yet, some of these costs can be offset by the longer shipping season experienced in colder climates (National Research Council, 2008; Savonis et al., 2008). Lower water levels could also create sporadic problems of river traffic due to service disruption. In the long run, if waterborne movement of goods decreases in efficiency, people would likely use other transportation modes such as truck and rail (National Research Council, 2008). Increased dredging could offset some of these problems, but on the other hand could lead to potentially negative environmental impacts. Adaption procedures include reducing cargo loads, designing ships to require less draft, and dredging the water to make it deeper (Savonis et al., 2008).

Air Transportation- Air transportation consists of airports and ground facilities, including airplanes that move both passengers and freight and the air traffic control system (National Research Council, 2008). Essential runway length is a combination of factors such as airport elevation, wind strength, air temperature, runway gradient, runway surface conditions, and aircraft takeoff weight and engine performance. Runways are designed to handle the harshest conditions an aircraft can experience. The higher the temperature, the longer the runway has to be. Consequently, runways are built taking into consideration a wide range of temperatures. However, if temperature exceeds the range initially expected, then additional adjustments in runaway length need to be made. This is what can happen with climate change and increased temperatures. Nevertheless, current trends in aircraft design point to shorter takeoff distances as airplanes become lighter and engines more potent. With improved technology required runway length can actually decrease and thus offset climate change impacts (Savonis et al., 2008).

Pavement Damage- Warming temperatures can affect airport ground facilities, particularly runways, the same way it can affect roads (e.g. it can cause heat buckling of runways) (National Research Council, 2008).

Reduced ice cover- In Texas, air transportation will benefit from reduced costs of snow and ice removal. Salt and chemical use will decrease which will bring environmental benefits. Airlines can profit from the decreased need to deice their airplanes. The amount of any reduction will depend on the relation between expected warming and increased precipitation (National Research Council, 2008).

Reductions in airplane lift and efficiency- Higher temperatures can cause reduced air density, decreasing both lift and engine efficiency of airplanes. This problem is aggravated in high-altitude airports. If the runway is not long enough for large airplanes to generate enough speed to lift, the airplane weight must be reduced or the flight cancelled. Consequently, heat waves can result in payload constraints, flight cancellations, and service disruptions. More powerful airplanes and longer runways may be needed (National Research Council, 2008; Wooler, 2004). Yet, technical advances could reduce the need for longer runways as airplanes become more efficient and powerful (Wooler, 2004). A study for Denver and Phoenix airports estimated a summer cargo loss (from June through August) for a Boeing 747 of about 17 to 9% by 2030 due to increased temperatures and water vapor (National Research Council, 2008). With increased temperature, pilots need to address aircraft takeoff performance capabilities and 22

Climate Change and Transportation payload requirements, while airports will need to address current runway use and future runaway design (Savonis et al., 2008).

2. Increasing Precipitation Increased precipitation will likely affect infrastructures in both cold and warm climate. Although changes in mean precipitation levels seem to have less impact on transportation than sea level rise, increased temperatures, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events do, it still impacts transportation. Increases in the intensity and frequency of precipitation can impact roads, railroads, bikeways/walkways, and airstrips. The runoff resulting from increased precipitation could also lead to increased peak stream flow, which then would impact the sizing requirement for bridges and gutters (Warren, Barrow, Andrey, Mills, & Riedel, 2004).

As reported by climate models, precipitation will have a relatively wide variance.

Some projections show annual rainfall potentially increasing or decreasing by as much as 13% by 2050 and by ± 15% by 2100. Regardless of these differences, increased temperature will lead to faster evaporation, declining soil moisture, and decreased runoff to rivers and streams. Habitats near highways may be altered and this will have implications for environmental mitigation. Additionally, increased intensity of rainfall may significantly impact the transportation system. Extreme weather events are related to higher incidence of crashes and delays, which affects both safety and mobility (IPCC, 2007; Savonis et al., 2008) Land transportation modes- The intensity, frequency, and duration of intense precipitation are important factors in designing transportation infrastructure. Increased intensity of precipitation will require the redesign of specifications to improve the transport system’s resistance to precipitation, thus increasing costs (National Research Council, 2008).

The major impact of increased precipitation will be more frequent flooding of coastal roads (especially those with poor drainage) and rail lines and that can be aggravated with sea level rise (Entec U.K. Limited, 2004; National Research Council, 2008). The occurrence of flooding with increased precipitation can damage and deteriorate foundations of rails, roads, and runaways (Entec U.K. Limited, 2004; Silverman, 2007).

In the spring of 2007, increased rainfall in Texas caused flooding, billions of dollars in damage and the life of 13 people in Gainesville, Texas (Silverman, 2007).

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Climate Change and Transportation Figure 6: Gainesville, Texas Flood in the spring of 2007

Source: Silverman, 2007.

Intense precipitation can cause several travel delays in metropolitan highways and railroads and can cause damages to bridges (National Research Council, 2008). This was seen in Houston with Hurricane Ike in 2008. The most important impact of increased precipitation will probably be felt on drainage designs, since with increased precipitation, larger capacity systems need to be put in place. Flooding as a result of extreme events could affect the design of overflow systems, of water channels flowing underneath bridges, and how bridge foundations are protected from bridge scour (Meyer, 2008).

Pipelines can also be affected by intense precipitation, since the state has regulations that require pipelines carrying hazardous materials to be within a minimum of three feet of cover and up to five feet near heavily populated areas. Intensive precipitation can cause erosion and subsidence (i.e. sinking of the earth underneath the pipeline), which can bring pipelines closer to the surface. Changing and unstable pipelines can be a problem in shallow riverbeds, where pipelines are more vulnerable to the elements.

Shallow seabed waters also pose a threat to pipelines as they may become exposed and subject to potential movement and even rupture from enduring wave action (National Research Council, 2008).

Other consequences of increased precipitation and potential flooding are the haul of embankments (potentially landslides) and the decrease of water quality due to run-off and sedimentation. Adaptation actions include monitoring the conditions of infrastructures, replacing surfaces when necessary, and preparing for service delays and cancellations (Warren et al., 2004).

Lastly, more precipitation as rain than snow can be more beneficial in some areas than others. When more rain than snow occurs, there is a higher risk of flooding, landslides, slope failures, and consequent damage to roads, particularly rural roads in the winter and spring months (National Research Council, 2008).

Marine Transportation- Coastal ports and harbor services will be affected by a rise in precipitation frequency and intensity. Land-based amenities will be particularly vulnerable to increased precipitation and the consequences of higher tides and storm 24

Climate Change and Transportation surges from rising seas. Increased precipitation will also cause the retrofitting of facilities and at a minimum, increased weather-related delays and the episodic disruption of shipping services (National Research Council, 2008).

Air Transportation- Generally, airplanes, airports, and airlines operate more proficiently in dry rather than in wet conditions. Weather is an essential factor in airplane performance and flight operations during taking-off, landing, and while in the air.

Precipitation affects air transportation in several ways: decreases visibility, slows air traffic, and decreases break effectiveness. While on the ground, it may create turbulence, increase the risk of icing of wings, and affects engine power (Savonis et al., 2008). Low level airports are at risk of flooding and erosion from increased precipitation. At a minimum, increased precipitation can cause disruptions and delays in air services and episodic airport closings (National Research Council, 2008).

Although most climate models for Texas predict an increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation, others estimate increased temperature and increased precipitation. Regardless, the majority of models predict an increase in intensity of individual rainfall and measures are needed to address it. Contrarily, less precipitation would decrease flight delays and the risk of wing icing. A warmer climate with less precipitation would also bring more turbulence and increase the harshness of thunderstorms (Savonis et al., 2008).

3. Sea Level Rise Sea level rise impacts mostly coastal areas (Savonis et al., 2008). According to IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, it is considered the most serious effect of climate change, especially in coastal areas (IPCC, 2008a). Sea level rise (SLR) represents one of the biggest dangers to the dense network of ports, highways, and rail lines across the Gulf coast (Savonis et al., 2008). In fact, several studies predicted that transportation infrastructure in some coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico will be permanently flooded sometime next century (National Research Council, 2008).

Climate models predict a range of sea level rise between 24 cm and 199 cm (1 and 7 ft). Future planning, construction, and maintenance activities should be planned with previous knowledge of eventual vulnerabilities. In the Gulf of Mexico and Texas coast, change in the land surface elevation is mostly due to subsidence or shrinking of the land surface. Slow and progressive rates of SLR will be more easily addressed by transportation planners than if abrupt changes occur (Savonis et al., 2008).

Land transportation modes Sea level rise would be of greatest danger for land transportation modes such as highways and rail lines. Although the consequences are not as immediate as from a storm, they are nonetheless serious and impact all levels of transportation. SLR can affect transportation modes differently: bus routes and its facilities can be adjusted over time, but light rail facilities are not so easily moved and thus adaption actions can be harder to execute (Savonis et al., 2008).

Roads are also at risk of flooding with higher sea levels. In many communities, roads are situated at a level lower than the surrounding areas so that land can drain into the streets. As a consequence, roads are the first to flood. Adaptation procedures include 25

Climate Change and Transportation more frequent maintenance, construction of flood-defense means, and relocation.

Engineers need to be prepared to deal with the consequent erosion and subsidence of road bases and rail beds, along with erosion and scouring of bridge supports. Road interruption and rail traffic is likely to become more frequent with more regular flooding (National Research Council, 2008).

A sea level rise of 122-cm (4ft) would affect approximately a quarter of arterials and interstates along the Gulf coast, close to half of the same region’s intermodal connector miles, and 10% of its rail miles (Table 6). Since products are transferred to and from ports by trucks and rail, interruptions in these services would likely affect much more than what these percentages imply due to the interruption of the network’s connectivity.

Additionally, while bus routes can be moved and adjusted as a response to sea level rise, light rail facilities cannot be easily moved and thus moving it would be more costly (Savonis et al., 2008).

In 2005, during hurricane Katrina, repair costs for the more than 65-Km (40 miles) CSX railroad totaled $250 million. Yet, this can be aggravated by the necessity to move the line farther inland. Important industries that depend on transportation, such as petroleum, agricultural production, chemical, and transportation, are heavily concentrated in the state. Thus, private companies should be seriously concerned about the impacts of climate change in transportation as it can affect hundreds of billions of dollars in commercial activity (Savonis et al., 2008).

Table 6: Relative sea level rise impacts on the Gulf Coast

Source: Savonis et al., 2008.

Marine transportation Coastal ports and harbor services will be affected by SLR. A sea level rise of 61 cm (2ft) has the potential to affect 64% of the Gulf Coast port facilities (Table 6; Savonis et al., 2008). Land based amenities will be particularly vulnerable to increased precipitation and the consequences of higher tides and storm surges from rising seas. Dock level will have to be particularly considerate of sea level (whether in wet or dry docks, general cargo docks, and container disembarks). Facilities will have to be adjusted and moved due to SLR. The smallest consequences will be increased weather-related delays and periodic interruption of shipping services (National Research Council, 2008).

The navigability of shipping channels will be affected by SLR. Some channels may become more accessible and for a farther inland path (National Research Council, 2008; Savonis et al., 2008). This could lead to decreased dredging costs, but higher costs in areas where sea level rise requires terminals to be moved (Savonis et al., 2008).

Accessibility of others may be negatively affected due to changes in sedimentation and the position of sandbanks (National Research Council, 2008).

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Climate Change and Transportation The combination of sea level rise and storm surge could interrupt waterway services completely. The Texas Gulf Coast portion of the Intercoastal Waterway may disappear with continual landslide and fading of barrier islands. This will disrupt coastal barge traffic, which previously relieved rail and highway congestion (National Research Council, 2008).

Air transportation- Airports lying in coastal zones are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise as runways are especially vulnerable to flooding and erosion (National Research Council, 2008). Airports can also be affected by SLR if roads and connectors leading to them are flooded (Savonis et al., 2008).

4. Changes in Extreme Weather Events Extreme weather events affect all climates and both inland and coastal areas (National Research Council, 2008; Savonis et al., 2008). Three important elements affecting transportation are: winds, winds-provoked storm surge, and precipitation (National Research Council, 2008). Some of the changes include increased intensity and frequency of storms and a decrease in winter snowstorms. According to climate models, the intensity of hurricanes in the Gulf Coast is likely to increase. The number of hurricanes due to increased temperature is also likely to increase (Savonis et al., 2008).

Increased intensity and frequency of storms- In coastal areas this could lead to a rise in flooding and serious damages to infrastructures such as roads, rails, and airports.

Coastal urban areas could potentially see their subway systems, which are already in lowlying areas, inundated. Adaptation measures include building barriers to protect against storms, relocating infrastructures, and preparing for alternative traffic routes. Other consequences of storm activity are increased wind speed and increased lightning activity.

Signage and overhead cables could be damaged by increased wind speed and by electric disturbances from lightning. Wind is most destructive on unreinforced terminal structures, such as metal warehouses with large surface areas and relatively light construction (Savonis et al., 2008). The most serious effect of stronger winds will probably be on long span bridges and especially on suspension and cable-stayed bridges.

Engineering calculations used for bridge designs and material qualifications take into account wind speeds. With faster and stronger wind speeds, changes in materials and designs will have to occur to guarantee structures are strong enough to hold such climatic disturbances (Meyer, 2008).

Much of Katrina’s damage to the port of New Orleans was made because of wind tearing off warehouse roofs and doors, not from water damages as it would be expected (Savonis et al., 2008). During recent hurricanes along the Gulf Coast, storm surges and wave action damaged highway and rail bridge decks and thousands of sign and signal supports were lost. Shipping was interrupted and barges that were not kept in a safe place early enough were destroyed. Airports were closed, refineries wrecked, and barge traffic suspended (National Research Council, 2008).

Storm Surge- The most serious power that concerns engineers is storm surge. It not only causes damages to the structures it hits, but it also causes disturbances because it carries debris of all other structures that were destroyed on the way (Meyer, 2008).

Climate analysis indicates that severe storms across the Gulf Coast at today’s sea 27

Climate Change and Transportation elevation can produce a 6.7 to 7.3 m (22 to 24 ft) potential surge for category 3 hurricanes or greater. Yet, from previous experience these numbers can even be conservative. Category 3 hurricane Katrina exceeded these heights in some areas. Since many of the roads, railroads, and airports in the Gulf Coast have been built at elevations below 5 m (16.4 ft), storm surges pose a serious threat to these infrastructures (Savonis et al., 2008).

Storm surges create a great challenge in the way bridges are built and designed, both in what concerns superstructures and foundations (Meyer, 2008). Just like with SLR, ports, highways, and rail are the transportation infrastructures with the most potential to be affected by extreme weather events and storm surge. Ports are at the most risk since 98% of port facilities along the Gulf Coast are vulnerable to a storm surge of 5.5 m (18 ft.). Additionally, 51% of arterials and 56% of interstates along the Gulf Coast are in areas vulnerable to a surge of 5.5 m (18 ft). A factor that makes both SLR and storm surge impacts worse is the deterioration of barrier islands. As barrier islands erode, their role in shielding coastal waterways and infrastructures from wave action decreases. Thus, their capability to protect coastal infrastructure will decrease as well (Stone et al., 2003).

Water can physically destroy terminal buildings, damage or demolish terminal equipment, break wharfs and piers, inundate and sink large areas, and damage foundations and pavements. Any transportation facility subject to flooding will sustain structural damage and will most likely be inoperable due to debris or other obstructions.

Thus, it incurs significant economic costs to both businesses and communities who rely on these transportation modes (Savonis et al., 2008). A summary of the vulnerabilities from a storm surge of the Gulf Coast’s infrastructure is presented on the table below.

Figure 7: Storm Surge impacts on Gulf Coast transportation modes: percentage of facilities vulnerable.

Source: Savonis et al., 2008.

Reduced snowfall- This could result in significant savings for road authorities when maintaining winter roads where usually snow is high (Warren et al., 2004). It is likely that some components of transportation infrastructure will be more vulnerable to climate change than others. Engineering procedures used for designing structures will have to integrate higher frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Design procedures and standards will have to take into consideration the chances of changing environmental conditions. This re-design will likely increase costs due to the need for stronger and more resistant materials (Meyer, 2008).

5. Additional Climate Impacts on Transportation Climate change will also impact transportation indirectly. Some of these indirect impacts include economic, environmental, demographic, and security impacts.

28

Climate Change and Transportation

Economic Impacts The economic impacts of climate change have received substantial attention. Some authors attempted to approximate the cost of replacing infrastructure or to place a monetary value on the loss of specific aspects of system performance. Three climate factors were analyzed in depth in published studies: changing inland water levels, thawing permafrost, and warmer temperatures in traditionally colder climates (Savonis et al., 2008).

Changing inland waterway levels- Quinn (2002) analyzed the economic consequence of lower water levels, which would force ships to lighten their loads. If lower water levels become regular, shippers will see their profits decrease and will run the risk of being replaced by other transport means, such as rail or trucks (Quinn, 2002) Increasing temperatures in northern regions- In Northern regions, trucks are usually allowed to carry more weight when roadbeds are frozen. If temperatures increase in northern regions and roads thaw, then trucks will have to reduce their loads even if during the typical higher weight-limit trucking season. Consequently, some road authorities are already adjusting load-weight limits to conditions rather than to dates (Clayton, Montufar, Regeher, Isaacs, & McGregor, 2005).

Impacts on freight transport- The private sector have invested significantly on transportation infrastructure and a large part of the activities involve moving freight).

Although most roads are publicly owned, the vehicles traveling are mostly private. Thus, the disruption of privately owned transportation infrastructure can have huge costs.

During Hurricane Katrina in 2005, repair costs for the CSX railroad (CSX Transportation is head quartered in Jacksonville, Florida) totaled $250 million. These costs could have been decreased if the company had chosen to move the line more inland (Savonis et al., 2008).

The private sector worries about the climate impacts on transportation mostly because of freight movement. It chooses an intermodal freight system that includes ports, highways, aviation, and rail to move goods as cheaply as possible. This system can be very vulnerable because if a single mode is disrupted, the whole supply chain is impacted. A disruption of freight transportation in the Gulf of Mexico would not only impact the transportation system and the local economy, but the national economy as well. Additionally, most businesses have shifted to a low inventory, just-in-time delivery model, which puts increasing pressure on the reliability and effectiveness of the shipment. A failure on the transportation service can disrupt thousands of supply chains and damage the operations and profitability of many shippers, carriers, and customers.

Another freight transportation challenge is the disruption in distribution of petroleum by pipelines and the failure of ships being able to move along the Gulf Coast. This would increase the costs of transportation and the prices of the final good, affecting the national and global competitiveness of involved businesses (Savonis et al., 2008).

Environmental Impacts Some of the environmental impacts studied to date have been increased dredging of inland waterways and reduced use of winter road maintenance substances (Savonis et al., 2008).

29

Climate Change and Transportation Dredging- Dredging is done as a result of low water levels and can have negative environmental impacts. Dredge material can be contaminated, so dredging would bring up once buried toxins and create a problem (Sousounis & Bisanz, 2000) Reduced winter maintenance- Increased temperatures can also bring some environmental benefits like reduced use of chemicals for deicing, consequently decreasing the costs for airlines and the environmental damage caused by those chemicals (Warren et al., 2004).

Demographic Impacts Climate can potentially lead to a shift in travel destinations. Increased temperatures and less frequent cloud cover in the summer could increase the number of vacation trips per road. The number of vacation trips from cities to the country can also increase, especially with warmer summer temperatures (Entec U.K. Limited, 2004).

Security Impacts Climate impacts on transportation will also have consequences on global diplomacy, safety, and security (D. Johnston, 2002). The number of accidents on the road can also increase since with higher temperatures, driver concentration is reduced (Entec U.K. Limited, 2004).

Emergency Management Impacts Without preventive planning, climate change can complicate evacuation efforts in coastal regions. Some highways, the main way for evacuation, may be flooded permanently as sea level rises and momentarily when areas are inundated by storms.

Higher temperatures could also make evacuations harder, especially where congestion is more intense, since higher temperatures can increase the use of air conditioning, making it more likely that vehicles will run out of fuel and block traffic. There are two types of emergency management/climate scenarios: one involves complications for emergency response activities, given climate impacts, and the other is the fact that climate impact itself causes the emergency, like a hurricane flooding which forces people to evacuate (Savonis et al., 2008).

VIII. Texas Geographic, Social and Economic Setting The Texas Gulf Coast, a low-lying flat land neighboring the subtropical waters of the Gulf of Mexico is especially vulnerable to major hurricanes. Yet, the same area that is vulnerable to hurricanes is also attractive to businesses and industries. Many of the nation’s most used ports are located on the Texas Gulf Coast. The port of Houston is among the world’s most heavily used ports and is especially attractive to international shippers due to its centralized location and its variety of transportation connections which includes highway, rail, river, and pipeline. Texas also contains some of the largest U.S. oil fields. Its large share of domestic natural gas and petroleum production, together with its status as a major energy importer, make the state the center of the country’s petrochemical industry (National Research Council, 2008).

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the most devastating and costly natural disaster in the country. It caused the loss of over 1,800 lives and an estimated $89.6 billion in damage.

30

Climate Change and Transportation Hurricane Rita in the same year, even more intense than Katrina, caused the death of 120 people and around $10 billion in damage. The reduced costs and number of lives lost were due to its more easterly path, which spared Houston, a highly populated city, from the most violent part of the storm (National Research Council, 2008). Hurricane Ike in 2008 was the fourth costliest U.S. hurricane with $19.3 billion in damages and 195 fatalities (Berg, 2009; Tropical Weather, 2010). These three storms affected seriously the transportation system. Major highways and bridges were seriously damaged or destroyed, which caused rerouting of traffic and that placed extra stress on other routes. Barge shipping and export grain traffic were disrupted and the pipeline network shutdown, creating shortages of petroleum products and natural gas. Nevertheless, had Katrina and Rita hit Houston, the impacts on rail transportation and freight movement would have been much more devastating and costly (National Research Council, 2008).

Looking at the economic impacts, the total economic costs for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita are still not completely accounted for. Current reported costs total over $1.1 billion.

The replacement of the I-10 twin Span Bridge between New Orleans and Slidell, Louisiana will add $1 billion more and the replacement of pipelines, waterways, rail lines, ports, and airports several billion more. These numbers still do not take into account unreported costs of emergency operating expenditures, opportunity costs of missed shipments, extended detours, and long-term costs of displaced business and trade (National Research Council, 2008). For Ike the reports vary, but costs were at least $19.3 billion (Berg, 2009).

According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the most serious impact of climate change on North America’s transportation system will be coastal flooding, mostly on the Gulf Coast, due to sea level rise and aggravated by storm surge and land subsidence (National Research Council, 2008). Lessons should be taken from the vulnerability of the transport system if violent storms like these happen again.

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Climate Change and Transportation Table 7 : Potential Climate Changes and Impacts on Transportation.

Impacts on Land Impacts on Marine Impacts on Air Transportation Transportation Transportation Potential Operations Operations Climate Operations and Infrastruct and Infrastruct Infrastructur Change and Interrupure Interrupure e Interruptions tions tions Temperature Limitations Impacts on Impacts on Delays due to Heat-related Increases in on periods pavement Shipping due excessive heat. weathering very hot of and concrete to warmer and buckling days and construction construction water in river Impacts on liftof pavements heat waves activity due practices and lakes off load limits and concrete health and at high-altitude facilities safety Thermal or hot weather concerns expansion on airports with Heat-related bridge insufficient weathering of Vehicle expansion runway lengths, vehicle stock overheating joints and resulting in and tire paved flight deterioration surfaces cancellation and/or limits on Impacts on payload landscaping in highway and More energy street rightsconsumption on of-way the ground Concerns regarding pavement integrity Rail-track deformities, since air temperature above 43˚C (110˚F) can lead to equipment failure

32

Climate Change and Transportation Temperature

Decreases in very cold days

Regional changes in snow and ice removal costs Changes in environment al impacts from salt and chemical use

Decreased utility of unimproved roads that rely on frozen ground for passage.

Less ice accumulation on vessels, decks, riggings, and docks

Changes in snow and ice removal costs and environmental impacts from salt and chemical use.

Less ice fog Reduction in need for deicing.

Fewer ice jams in ports.

Fewer cold related restrictions for maintenance workers.

Sea level rise Added to storm surge

More frequent interruptions in travel on coastal and low-lying roadways and rail service due to storm surges.

More severe storm surges, requiring evacuation.

Fewer limitations on ground crew work at airports (typically restricted at wind chills below- 29˚C (20˚F)) Inundation of roads and rail lines in coastal areas.

More frequent or severe flooding of underground tunnels and low lying infrastructur e.

Erosion of road base and bridge supports.

More severe storm surges, requiring evacuation

Changes in harbor and port facilities to accommoda te higher tides and storm surges Reduced clearance under waterway bridges

Potential for closure or restrictions for several of the top 50 airports that lie in coastal zones, affecting service to the highest density populations in the U.S.

Inundation of airport runways located in coastal areas.

Changes in navigability of channels

Reduced clearance under bridges.

Loss of coastal wetlands and barrier shoreline.

Land subsidence

33

Climate Change and Transportation Precipitation

Increase in intense precipitation events

Increases in Increases in Increases in weatherflooding of weatherrelated delays roadways, rail related delays lines, and Increases in subterranean traffic tunnels disruptions Overloading Increased of drainage flooding of systems evacuation routes Increases in road washout, Disruption of damages to construction rail bed activities support structures Changes in rain, snowfall, Impacts on and seasonal soil moisture flooding that levels, affect safety affecting and structural maintenance integrity of operations roads, bridges, and tunnels

Impacts on harbor infrastructur e from wave damage and storm surges Changes in underwater surface and silt and debris buildup, which can affect channel depth

Increases in delays due to convective weather Storm water runoff that exceeds the capacity of collection systems, causing flooding, delays, and airport closings Implications for emergency evacuation planning, facility maintenance, and safety management

Impacts on structural integrity of airport facilities Destruction or disabling of navigation aid instruments Runway and other infrastructure damage due to flooding Inadequate or damaged pavement drainage systems

Increases in scouring of pipeline roadbeds and damages to pipelines.

Precipitation

Increases in drought conditions for some regions

Increased susceptibilit y to wildfires, causing road closures due to fire threat or reduced visibility

Increased susceptibilit y to wildfires that threaten transportatio n infrastructur e directly

Impacts on river transportation routes and seasons

Decreased visibility for airports located in droughtsusceptible areas with potential for increased wildfires

Increases susceptibilit y to mudslides in areas deforested by wildfires

34

Climate Change and Transportation Precipitation

Changes in seasonal precipitation and river flow patterns

Storms More frequent strong hurricanes (Category 45)

Benefits for Increased risk Periodic safety and of floods channel reduced from runoff, closings or interruptions landslides, restrictions if if frozen slope failures, flooding precipitation and damage increases shifts to to roads if rainfall, precipitation Benefits for depending changes from safety and on terrain snow to rain reduced in winter and interruptions if spring thaws frozen precipitation shifts to rainfall More debris Greater Implications on roads and probability of for rail lines, infrastructure emergency interrupting failures evacuation travel and planning, shipping Increased facility threat to maintenance, More stability of and safety frequent and bridge decks management. potentially more Increased extensive damage to emergency signs, lighting evacuations fixtures, and supports Decreased expected lifetime of highways exposed to storm surge

Changes in Benefits for silt safety and deposition reduced leading to interruptions if reduced frozen depth of precipitation some inland shifts to rainfall waterways and impacts on long-term viability of some inland navigation routes

Inadequate or damaged pavement drainage systems

Greater More frequent challenge to interruptions in robustness air service of infrastructu re

Damage to landslide facilities (e.g., terminals, navigation aids, fencing around perimeters, signs).

Damage to harbor infrastructur e from waves and storm surges Damage to cranes and other dock and terminal facilities

Source: National Research Council, 2008.

IX. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in the Transportation System Adaptation strategies include five mitigating options: energy efficiency, biofuels, public transport, non-motorized transport, and urban planning (IPCC, 2007). These strategies have not only the potential to mitigate impacts of global warming, but they can also bring economic benefits that could significantly impact how transportation system is designed in the future (Batac & Lem, 2008). Implementing them can result in positive social, economic, and environmental consequences (IPCC, 2007). Strategies can also include measures to adapt to the impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructures. In addition, technology based approaches can be implemented to reduce GHG emissions in the transportation sector (Walsh, 2008). They include: • Setting obligatory or voluntary fuel efficiency or GHG emission standards.

• Switching to lower-carbon fuels and improved vehicle technologies.

35

Climate Change and Transportation •

Decreasing the use of motorized vehicles.

1. Energy Efficiency Advanced technologies to increase energy efficiency include a greater use of electricdrive technologies, such as fuel cells and battery electric vehicles. To reduce even more GHG emissions, it is necessary to use more alternative fuels such as biofuels, natural gas, electricity and hydrogen. Nevertheless, even with these additional fuels, petroleum is likely to retain its dominant share. Only serious changes in economic growth, major policy intervention, and major behavioral shifts will be able to decrease GHG emissions significantly (IPCC, 2007).

Road Transport- Reducing GHG emissions from vehicles can be accomplished using four types of measures (IPCC, 2007): 1. Reducing loads on the vehicle, which then reduces the work needed to power it.

2. Increasing energy efficiency of vehicles 3. Switching to a less carbon-intensive fuel 4. Reducing emissions of non-CO2 GHGs from vehicle exhaust and climate control.

Improved Technologies Lightweight materials- A 10% decrease of vehicle total weight can improve fuel economy by 4-8%, depending on the vehicle size and whether or not the engine is downsized. Although the number of lighter materials in vehicles has been increasing, this did not always result in reductions of total vehicle weight and in improvements in energy efficiency. In fact, the average weight of a vehicle in the U.S. and Japan has increased by 10-20% in the last 10 years (IPCC, 2007).

Aerodynamics improvement- The aerodynamic performance of vehicles has been improving over the years, yet important additional improvements can still be made.

Improvements in aerodynamic performance offers great benefits for vehicles driving at higher speeds, that is, outside congested areas and often on long distances (IPCC, 2007).

Mobil Air Conditioning (MAC) systems- MAC systems are a contributor to GHG emissions in two ways: direct emissions from leakage of refrigerant and indirect emissions from fuel consumption. Refrigerant emissions can be decreased by using new refrigerants with lower global warming potential 4 (GWP), like CO2. Although the viability of CO2 refrigerant has been proved, a number of challenges still need to be overcome. Energy consumption for MAC is around 2.5-7.5% of the total vehicle energy consumption. Thus, to limit this system’s energy consumption a number of improvements have to be achieved, including airflow management and a control system (IPCC, 2007).

Improving drive train efficiency Advanced direct injection gasoline/Diesel engines and transmissions- New transmission and engine technologies have been used on light-duty vehicles in Europe, USA, and Japan. If used more widely, they can significantly decrease GHG emissions.

Using direct injection diesel engines can improve fuel efficiency by 35% when compared with conventional gasoline engines. These engines are being used in about half of the light-duty vehicles in Europe, but still very little in the U.S. and Japan (IPCC, 2007).

4

“Global warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much a given mass of greenhouse gas is estimated to contribute to global warming” (Wikipedia, n.d.).

36

Climate Change and Transportation Hybrid drive trains- These systems combine a fuel-driven power source with an electric driver train in various ways. Hybrids save energy in many ways (IPCC, 2007): 1. Shutting the engine down when the vehicle is stopped (and possibly during braking or coasting).

2. Recovering braking losses by using the electric motor to brake and using the electric motor to brake and using the electricity generated to recharge the battery.

3. Using the motor to boost power during acceleration allowing engine downsizing and improving average engine efficiency.

4. Using motor instead of the engine at low load (in some configurations), eliminating engine operation during its lowest efficiency mode.

5. Allowing the use of a more efficient cycle than the standard Otto cycle (in some hybrids).

6. Shifting power steering and other accessories to (more efficient) electric operation.

2. Biofuels The term biofuels means fuel produced from biomass (IPCC, 2007). According to Walsh (2008), the development of alternative fuels is being driven by three factors: • Continued growth of the number of vehicles, especially in urban areas where levels of pollution are already high.

• Increasing evidence of adverse health impacts caused by increased air pollutants, mostly in urban areas.

• Development of vehicle technology and clean fuels that promote lower levels of emissions at lower costs.

Using biofuels can be significantly beneficial. A study examining the potential regional air quality impacts of hydrogen transportation fuel versus the impacts of gasoline transportation fuel found that the best gasoline scenario, which assumes year 2025 advanced gasoline vehicles, would lead to 273 times greater CO2, 88 times greater VOC, 8 times greater PM10, and 3.5 times greater NOx concentrations than any hydrogen scenario (Wang, Ogden, & Sperling, 2008). The figure below illustrates the conversion routes from crops to biofuels.

37

Climate Change and Transportation Figure 8: Overview of conversion routes from crops to biofuels.

Source: IPCC, 2007.

Biofuels can be either used pure or as a blend with other vehicle fuels. The two biggest benefits of using biofuels are to reduce GHG emissions and to decrease the state and the country’s dependence on imported oil. Two biofuels are currently used in the world to power vehicles, ethanol and biodiesel. A list of some of the fuel alternatives to gasoline are shown in figure 9. Ethanol is made mostly from sugar produced by plants such as sugar cane, sugar beet, and corn. It is primarily seen in Brazil, where it is made from sugar cane, and in the U.S. where it is made from corn. Everywhere else in the world ethanol is seen in small quantities (IPCC, 2007).

Biodiesel can be produced from Jatropha- a drought resistant crop seen in most parts of Africa, from Malaysian palm oil, and from U.S. soybean oils. In the future, using ligno-cellulosic sources to produce biofuels seems to be the most attractive biomass option. Ligno-cellulosic sources are grasses and woody materials, such as crop residues and energy crops. Using cellulosic crops can be very beneficial. They have much higher yield per hectare than starch and sugar crops, they may be cultivated in areas not suitable for grains and other food-feed crops, and the energy use is much smaller, which results in much greater GHG reductions than most food and corn crops (Figure 10). Investments are being made to develop new biofuels and improve the conversion of ligno-cellulosic sources into biofuels. Research is also going towards new ways of producing oils to generate biodiesel (IPCC, 2007).

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Climate Change and Transportation Figure 9: Assessment of U.S. Alternatives to Gasoline

a

While not in production today, biomass methanol or “wood alcohol” plants were common in states such as New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan from 1890s through the 1940s.

Source: (Heiman & Solomon, 2008).

As seen in figure 10, depending on their production source, biofuels can play a significant role in decreasing GHG emissions in the transport sector. Nevertheless, biofuels potential is limited by the quantity of agricultural land, the amount of economically recoverable agricultural and silvicultural waste streams, and the availability of cost-effective conversion technology. Another drawback is the fact that mass production of biofuels may require deforestation and release of soil carbon (IPCC, 2007).

39

Climate Change and Transportation Figure 10: Reduction of well-to-wheels GHG emissions compared to conventionally fuelled vehicles.

Source: IPCC, 2007.

A study done in 2008 in Canada found that individuals were willing to pay additional CAN$2200 to $5300 (US$ 2,008 and $4838) to save CAN$1000 (US$913) in annual fuel costs. Respondents were also willing to pay between CAN$2000 and $5000 (US$1826 and $4564) if their next vehicle would emit less 10% of what the average car emits now.

Individuals with higher income were more willing to pay premium prices to acquire environmental benefits (Potoglou & Kanaroglou, 2007). The carbon emission savings from using technologies other than current gasoline can be seen in the figure below.

Figure 11: Carbon Emissions Savings from using technologies other than current Gasoline

Source: IPCC, 2007.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated an increase in the usage of biofuels in the transport sector assuming successful technology development and policy measures to surpass barriers to biomass exploitation and providing economic incentives (IPCC, 2007). Although improvements in fuel and vehicle efficiency are very important, landuse and transportation planning that can reduce vehicle demand are essential to mitigate climate change, since travel demand is increasing at a much faster pace than technology 40

Climate Change and Transportation and fuel solutions can handle (Figure 12). Vehicle travel demand can be reduced by better land-use planning and design, transportation demand management, and road pricing (Frank et al., 2007).

Figure 12: Vehicle miles traveled, CO2 emissions and fuel efficiency

Source: Frank, Kavage, & Appleyard, 2007.

Additionally, as enacted in the 2005 Energy Policy Act, the goal for the U.S. is to produce 7.5 billion of gallons corn-based ethanol by 2012 and 1 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol by 2015. With these levels, the U.S. can reduce its petroleum consumption by 0.8 to 1.6%, as well as its CO2 -equivalent GHG emissions by 0.4 to 0.6% (Heiman & Solomon, 2008).

3. Public Transportation In the U.S., Post-World War II urban development with low-density, disconnected, single-use development and inadequate transit requires people to drive greater distances and make more trips by car. Expansive American cities not only support the use of the automobile, but they require it. Consequently, many Americans rely on cars for almost every transportation necessity. Contrary to this scenario, compact low-density communities with a mix of land uses and a greatly connected street network, usually have fewer vehicle miles and trips and more bicycling and walking per capita. These communities are also associated with lower per capita levels of other emissions, such as ozone, and more recently to lower per capita carbon dioxide levels (Frank et al., 2007).

Personal motor vehicles emit much more GHGs per passenger/km than other transportation modes. Yet, the amount of cars and light trucks on the road continues to increase worldwide. One way of reducing GHG emissions is reducing the number of personal motor vehicles circulating the streets. Nevertheless, this strategy can only be accomplished if other modes of transportation are provided to guarantee the same or higher level of mobility (IPCC, 2007).

41

Climate Change and Transportation Collective modes of transport emit less GHG and use less energy than individual motor vehicles and non-motorized activities such as walking and biking emit even less.

There would be significant GHG emission reduction worldwide if public and nonmotorized transport were used more frequently. The challenge is to create an effective public transport system to maintain and improve the market share of low-emitting modes (IPCC, 2007).

In the U.S., passenger travel by personal vehicles produces the same GHG emissions as bus and air travel on a passenger-km basis. That is primarily because buses have low load numbers in the U.S. Consequently, a strategy focused on more energy-efficient bus travel will not necessarily lead to reductions in the emissions of GHGs. Everywhere in the world, public transportation is used more frequently than in the U.S., which has consequently a GHG advantage over cars. Using alternative fuels to power public transport modes in this case can reduce GHG emissions significantly (IPCC, 2007).

A book by Alan Pisarski called “Commuting in America” shows that Americans frequently commute regionally, from suburb to city and from city to suburb. These trips are usually the longest regular trips someone travels and people often do it alone. Thus, having reliable and fast transport modes from suburbs to cities could potentially lead to reductions in per capita vehicle miles and hours of travel (Frank et al., 2007).

Besides the GHG reduction benefits, public transportation offers social benefits since it provides transportation for those who do not own a vehicle (IPCC, 2007; Schrank & Lomax, 2007). Economically, it is beneficial because it provides additionally capacity at less marginal cost. It is less costly to offer additional capacity by increasing bus service, than by constructing new roads and bridges (IPCC, 2007). If public transportation were disrupted and the travelers used private vehicles, in 2005 the 437 urban areas would have experienced 541 million additional hours of delay and consumed 340 million more gallons of fuel. The congestion cost, which included both the value of the delay and fuel, would be an additional $10.2 billion. As roads become more congested, the role of public transportation in providing travel capacity to major urban areas will increase (Schrank & Lomax, 2007).

One measure to shift car users to a more carbon-efficient mode is the development of new rail services. Rail’s main benefits are high speed passenger transport between big cities, high density commuter transport in the city, and freight transport over distant areas. Future Research and Development (R&D) goals for rail transport are faster speeds, improved comfort, cost decreases, and better punctuality and safety. A major challenge, though, is the higher capital and probably the higher maintenance cost of the project (IPCC, 2007).

4. Non-Motorized Transport (NMT) The opportunity to switch from motorized vehicles to non-motorized vehicles (NMT) and thus reduce GHG emissions is dependent on local conditions and culture. In the Netherlands, NMT accounts for 47% of the trips. In Europe, over 30% of the trips done in cars cover less than 3 km (1.86 miles) and 50% less than 5 km (3.1 miles), which makes it easier to use non-motorized modes. In this situation, NMT can significantly reduce GHG emissions. In Denmark, cycling accounts for 18% of the transport modes used, while in the UK more than 60% of people live within a 15 minute bicycle ride of a station (IPCC, 2007). In Texas, only 1.4% of workers walk to their jobs (U.S. 42

Climate Change and Transportation Department of Transportation, 2007), which means NMT plays a small role in transportation and in reducing GHGs. Another co-benefit of using NMT is improving human health (IPCC, 2007).

Regardless of the state’s and country’s car culture, several new studies show an increased demand for more walkable areas. Household trends are changing with smaller families and more baby boomers wanting to live in places where it is possible to walk and use transit. Studies also show that more compact, walkable urban areas are linked with reduced per capita air pollutants and lower obesity rates (Frank, et al., 2007).

Lastly, to promote the use of NMT, urban planners could shorten journey distances, provide better cycling infrastructure, and offer convenient, secure parking at stations and bicycle carriage on trains (IPCC, 2007). Planners should create better connections among local travel modes, bicycling and walking, and regional modes (Frank, et al., 2007). The percentage of non-motorized, motorized public, and motorized private transportation usage in different parts of the world is illustrated on the figure below.

Figure 13: Modal Split by region.

Source: IPCC, 2007.

5. Urban Planning Increased motorization is responsible for a large amount of GHG emissions. Offering public transportation, integrating transport with efficient land use, encouraging walking and cycling, promoting the use of minicars and electric two-wheelers, and offering incentives for efficient vehicles are all ways of reducing GHG emissions. A study by Wright and Fulton (2005) estimated the economic benefits of increasing the use of NMT. The authors estimated that a 5% or 4% increase in walking or cycling could reduce CO2 emissions by 7% or 4% at a likely cost if 17 to 15 US$/tCO2 (dollar per ton of carbon dioxide) (IPCC, 2007; Wright & Fulton, 2005). They also estimate that an emphasis on transport mode shifting is likely to be more cost-effective as a means to reduce GHG emissions than applying advanced fuel technologies (Wright & Fulton, 2005).

Improving driving practices (eco-driving) - More efficient driving practices can help improve a vehicle’s fuel consumption. Such practices include smoother deceleration and 43

Climate Change and Transportation acceleration, maintaining low engine revolution, turning off the engine when idling, decreasing maximum speeds, and maintaining proper tire pressure. Studies conducted in the U.S. and Europe estimated potential improvements of 5 to 20% in fuel economy from eco-driving training (IPCC, 2007).

Improving productivity- Public transportation and more efficient operation of roads can improve productivity from the current transport system at relatively low cost. A project by the 2007 Mobility Plan on the effect of four prominent operational treatments estimated to relieve 257 million hours of delay in 2005, totaling $5.1 billion (Figure 14).

If the plan were applied on all major freeways and streets, the benefit would increase to 565 million hours of delay, with more than $10.5 billion being saved (Schrank & Lomax, 2007).

Figure 14: Operational Improvement Summary for all 437 Urban Areas in the Country

Source: Schrank & Lomax, 2007.

Additional roadways can also reduce the congestion levels felt especially in urban areas. Apparently, the growth rate of road facilities needs to be slightly higher than travel growth, so constant travel times are maintained. Yet, only if building new roads is the sole solution to address congestion issues. Only five of the eighty five areas studied were able to accomplish that, so cities must be using other ways to deal with congestion (Schrank & Lomax, 2007).

Responding to rising gas prices- Rising prices for gasoline makes shipping more and more expensive and those prices are passed on to consumers. In Texas, waterways offer a solution since it drives down shipping costs, takes more drivers off the roads, enhances safety, and improves air quality. Waterways can then be an alternative to the typical truck shipping service (Kruse, 2008).

Lastly, whatever the strategy is, planners should move quickly and build communities less dependable on automobiles and therefore meet the increasing demand for walkable areas. According to IPCC scientists, we are approaching one of the significant moments to mitigate climate change and any attempt needs to seriously decrease the demand for vehicle travel (Frank et al., 2007).

X. Policies and Measures for the Transportation Sector Local actions within the United Nations to reduce GHG emissions in the transport sector are becoming increasingly more frequent since the federal Government is not taking measures. The types of measures depend on the state’s needs, capacity, and capabilities (Batac & Lem, 2008).

Contrarily, there are also many other policies that lead unintentionally to increases in GHG emissions. Depending on its perspective, transport subsidies can do that (IPCC, 2007).

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Climate Change and Transportation Transport Subsidies- Overall, transport subsidies play a significant role in the economy. Van Beers and van den Bergh (2001) estimated that transport subsidies totaled $225 billion (USD), or close to 0.85% of the world’s GDP in mid-1990s (van Beers & van den Bergh, 2001; IPCC, 2007). Subsidies decrease the price of transport, which can lead to increased usage and therefore higher GHG emissions (IPCC, 2007). They can also decrease the incentive to economize fuel and drive a fuel-efficient vehicle (IPCC, 2007).

Some countries spend over 4% of their GDP on transport fuel subsidies. In these countries, taxpayers can withhold real expenses or a fixed amount of their salary. By decreasing the motivation to live closer to work, these incentives promote transport usage and its emissions (IPCC, 2007).

Nevertheless, to achieve energy savings (and reduce GHG emissions) and sustainable transport systems, policies and measures for the transport sector are needed (IPCC, 2007). According to the IPCC (2007), effective policies will include the following actions: • Land use and transport planning • Regulatory and operational instruments (ex: traffic management, control and information) • Taxation and pricing • Fuel economy standards- road transport • Non-climate policies influencing GHG emissions • Transport demand management • Co-benefits and ancillary benefits.

Most policies have focused on controlling vehicle use, managing traffic congestion, and reducing energy use, GHG emissions, and air pollution. Global trends have led to increasing travel, expansive cities, bigger vehicles, and decreasing land-use densities. To significantly reduce transport energy use and GHG emissions, it is necessary to shape the design of cities, limit motorization, and modify the characteristics of vehicles and fuels.

Indeed, policies and measures to restrain vehicles and decrease land-use densities not only reduce GHG emissions, but also pollution, traffic congestion, oil use, and infrastructure expenses (IPCC, 2007).

Most cities, in recent years, have seen increases in their dependence on the automobile and decreases in their dependence on public transportation. Income plays a significant role in motorization levels. High density cities are usually associated with lower levels of car ownership and car use and higher levels of travelling. These densities, however, are decreasing almost everywhere. One of the best strategies to slow motorization is to strengthen local institutions, especially in urban areas. Successful land use and transport planning usually combine mixed-use and compact land use development with better public transport access to reduce vehicle dependence. Another way to restrain motorization is to combine several policies, including improved transport service, improved facilities for NMT, and market and regulatory instruments to limit car ownership and usage (IPCC, 2007).

XI. Economic impacts on the transportation system Transportation systems exist to enable the movement of people and goods and are a crucial part of the state’s social and economic panorama (Savonis et al., 2008). One way to find economic estimates about the impacts brought by climate change on transportation 45

Climate Change and Transportation is given by Suarez et al. (2005) in his Boston-area study. The author considered some of the consequences of flooding on metropolitan transportation (Suarez et al., 2005): • Some trips will be cancelled because either the destination location or the origin location is flooded.

• Some trips will not happen because flooding has occurred on areas between the destination location and the origin location, so transportation from one place to another is not possible.

• Some trips that will still occur even with flooding will take much longer. This happens either because of traffic congestion on passable links because traffic has been diverted from other impassable links, or because the passenger had to choose alternative routes which take longer.

All these disruptions carry economic costs because each trip has a value. Traveler’s time has also a value and thus, lost time due to traffic congestion or longer routes carry significant costs. Cost may also be expressed in terms of lost work days, lost production, or lost sales (Suarez et al., 2005). Creutzig and He (2008) in their study about climate change mitigation in Beijing suggested that the more travelers on the road, the higher the individual and social costs of traveling. Individual costs can be expressed by longer time spent on the road due to congestion. The higher the road usage, the more cars each driver slows down (social cost). The table below illustrates the relation between costs and road usage.

Table 8: Congestion costs as a function of road usage.

Source: Creutzig & He, 2008.

Climate change will bring flooding and consequent closure of some roads, especially those in low-lying areas, creating traffic congestion on alternative roads since people still need to move from one place to another. According to Creutzig and He (2008), this will bring additional costs for travelers (Table 8). In a study in China, the social costs of congestion in value-of-time were found to be US$3 billion in 2008 5 for car drivers. The 5

In 2005 US$1 equaled 8.3 RMB.

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Climate Change and Transportation value of time lost in bus transportation due to car congestion was $770,367 in 2008 USD. This study calculated not only the cost of congestion and bus speed, but also the cost caused by climate change, noise, and accidents. The results are shown in the table below and adjusted to 2008 U.S. dollars. They show only the low estimate of external costs.

Table 9: The External Costs of Motorized Transport in Beijing in 2005

Causes Air pollution Climate Change Noise Congestion Bus Speed Accidents Total

Costs in 2008 US dollars a $2,629,873.78 $185,950.69 $119,539.69 $3,028,339.72 $770,367.14 $132,822.00 $6,866,893.02

Source: Adapted from Creutzig & He, 2008 a (Using (Williamson, 2009).

Climate change mitigation cost was estimated through fuel consumption, that is, mileage inside Beijing divided by fuel efficiency in km per liter (Creutzig & He, 2008).

This estimate represents the global costs of GHG emissions from Beijing car transportation (Creutzig & He, 2008). Another way of estimating the costs of climate change mitigation is by calculating the costs of carbon removal from the atmosphere.

Motorized vehicles are responsible for emitting GHGs, since fossil fuel combustion adds GHGs into the atmosphere. Lemp and Kocklam (2008) estimated that the cost of carbon removal from the atmosphere is $50 per ton (Lemp & Kockelman, 2008).

Congestion is currently a significant problem, especially in urban areas. In 2005, in the U.S. congestion caused Americans to travel 4.2 billion additional hours (Figure 15) and to buy 2.9 billion additional gallons of fuel which totaled $78 billion. Compared to 2004, this represented an increase of 220 million hours, 140 million gallons and $5 billion in 2005 ($5.5 billion in 2008 6 ). Between 1982 and 2005 congestion costs increased $63 billion (Schrank & Lomax, 2007). Although these numbers are alarming, climate change can still aggravate even more the congestion problem felt in many urban areas.

6

Using (Williamson, 2009).

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Climate Change and Transportation Figure 15: Congestion Growth Trend

Source: Schrank & Lomax, 2007.

Figure 16: Congestion Growth - 1982 to 2005.

Source: Schrank & Lomax, 2007.

Reducing congestion, either through public transportation or non-motorized transport, not only benefits other car drivers, but also bus passengers by reducing their travel time.

As seen above, reducing congestion in China could result in an additional welfare of $159,386.30 7 (2008) (Creutzig & He, 2007). A study conducted by the Texas Governor’s Business Council anticipated that solving congestion problems in the state’s eight largest metropolitan areas would create $540 billion in economic benefits, including $37 billion in reduced fuel consumption and $104 billion in travel time savings (Figure 16; Schrank & Lomax, 2007). The report also estimated that almost $80 billion in business efficiencies and operating savings would result from lower congestion levels.

Additionally, over $320 billion in construction effects, including 110,000 new jobs, were also estimated to be generated (Figure 18; Schrank & Lomax, 2007).

Travelers can also change their travel patterns to accommodate more demand and reduce congestion. Traveling in off-peak hours and using public transportation and carpools are some examples of possible solutions (Schrank & Lomax, 2007).

7

Using Williamson, 2009.

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Climate Change and Transportation Figure 17: 25-year Costs and Benefits of Implementing Texas Metropolitan Mobility Plan

Source: Schrank & Lomax, 2007.

Most mitigation strategies focus on reducing GHG emissions. Nevertheless, the most promising short-term solution is additional improvements in current vehicle technologies that will increase energy efficiency (IPCC, 2007).

XII. Co-Benefits and Ancillary Benefits of Transport Policies Climate change is usually not the main focus of decision makers in the transport sector. Policies and measures are usually aimed at reducing air pollution and congestion, achieving energy security, improving access to transport facilities, and recovering from expenses on infrastructure development. Thus, decreasing GHG emissions is often considered a co-benefit of transport policies rather than the main goal. Transport policies can provide several different benefits. Motorized traffic is related to local air pollution and GHGs and may also stimulate congestion, accidents, and noise. Addressing all these issues at once can significantly decrease costs as well as health and environmental risks.

Other benefits include better transport planning, land use, and environmental policy. For China, the costs of a 5-10% reduction in CO2 levels would be offset by health benefits from the reduction of air pollutants (IPCC, 2007).

Logically, NMT brings the greatest co-benefits such as GHG reduction, human health improvement, and air quality. In London, UK a congestion fee was introduced in February 2003 to reduce congestion in the city. The results were a 30% decrease in traffic and less congestion, higher speed of private vehicles (+20%) and buses (+7%), increased use of public transport, and increased walking and bicycling. Other ancillary benefits were reduced air pollutants such as reduced CO2 emissions (-20%) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) (-16% after one year) (IPCC, 2007). It was also found that reducing the use of automobiles by 1%, besides mitigating climate change can reduce obesity by 0.4% (Samimi, Mohammadian, & Madanizadeh, 2009). In short, policies aimed at reducing motorized vehicles can bring several co-benefits such as improved health, less air pollution, and reduced GHG emissions.

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Climate Change and Transportation

XIII. Texas Department of Transportation: Current Strategic Plan The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) has developed a strategic plan to improve the transportation system. Its mission is to provide safe and efficient means for movement of people and goods throughout the state. Its goals are to reduce congestion, enhance safety, expand economic opportunity, improve air quality, and lastly to increase the value of transportation assets. The plan to achieve those goals includes (TxDOT, 2007): 1. Reduce Congestion: • Tolled alternative lanes • New corridors to divert traffic • Truck-lane restrictions • Variable toll road pricing • Local and regional leaders making local and regional transportation and carpooling 2. Enhance Safety: • Cable carrier installations • Rumble strips • Wider travel lanes and shoulders • Divided highways • Dedicated left-turn lanes • Teen driver awareness program • Clearer highway signs • Keeping up with maintenance 3. Expand Economic opportunity • Creating new trade and transport corridors • Adding capacity to highways to reduce congestion • Empowering local and regional leaders to make local and regional transportation decisions • Providing tolled lanes that allow businesses to make deliveries more efficiently and get employees to work faster • Improving rail lines and crossing to move goods more quickly and attract trade 4. Improve air quality • Using public transportation/carpools • Using alternative fuels in the TxDOT fleet • Creating High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes • Adding capacity to highways to reduce idling • Improving railroad crossings to prevent stopping 5. Increase the value of transportation assets • Creating parallel corridors to alleviate traffic burden • Using existing footprints for new capacity • Improving and maintaining existing roadways • Investing transportation dollars where they are most needed 50

Climate Change and Transportation XIV. Future Data and Research Opportunities To better respond and adapt to the impacts of climate change on transportation, future research is needed. According to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change research (Savonis et al., 2008), some of the areas that need to be improved include: • Integration of site-specific data- The combination of location data and sitespecific elevation in a GIS-compatible format (Geographic Information Systems).

This would facilitate investigation of climate change impacts on transportation and the natural environment. Structures such as dikes and levees should be included.

• Additional and improved climate data and projections- Further knowledge about environmental trends, climate model projections, and the impacts on transportation is needed to facilitate understanding and decision making.

Additional information on other climate factors such as wind speeds, fog, and high temperatures can also be very important.

• Effects of climate change on freight transport demand- More information is needed on investment perspectives, adaptation strategies, and relocation plans.

• Demographic response to climate change- High population density increases demand for transportation of people and goods. Climate change and possibly changes in environmental conditions can cause population density to change as well. Projections on how people will respond to those factors are important to understand the demand for freight and passenger services.

• Design standards and reconstruction and adaptation costs- A better understanding of the costs of rebuilding transportation facilities after storms is very important.

More research is also needed on improved design standards, so infrastructures increase their resilience to climate factors. A cost-benefit analysis on infrastructure reconstruction would be very helpful for decision makers.

• New materials and technologies- There is the need for new and improved materials that can handle higher temperatures and drier/wetter conditions.

Improved technologies that can help people adapt to climate change are also necessary.

• Pipelines- A better understanding of the impacts of climate change on pipelines and about effective adaptation strategies is needed.

• Land use and climate change interactions- More information is needed on how environmental management strategies and land use development may affect the extent of climate change impacts on communities and transportation infrastructure. A review of current and past successful policies in land use can be very helpful.

• Emergency management planning/coordination/modeling- Understanding and reviewing successful approaches in coordinating emergency management planning in risky areas could help identify opportunities for risk reduction and improved coordination between public agencies and major private sector entities.

Evaluation of real-time data collected during emergencies is important to determine its potential use. Changes in communication and information technology infrastructure should also be investigated.

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Climate Change and Transportation •

•

Secondary and national economic impacts- More research and a better understanding of potential impacts of freight service disruption to the local and national economy is needed. This would help understand vulnerabilities and how to create appropriate policies.

Site-specific impacts- Study the impacts of climate change on specific geographic areas.

XIV. Conclusion Science continues to point out that modern climate change is influenced by human activities, mostly as a result of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While energy use is the major activity leading to GHG emissions (National Research Council, 2008), transportation is the second largest contributor across nations. Climate change can be manifested in several ways, including changes in temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and permanent snow and ice extent, and rising sea levels (National Research Council, 2008).

Transportation will be affected by climate change mainly through the occurrence of extremes weather events. Texas transportation system was built for average local climate conditions, which includes a reasonable margin for extreme experiences. If climate change pushes environmental conditions outside the limit for which the transportation system was built, the impacts will be significant. Since climate models predict changes outside that limit, it is important to take measures. The impacts will vary among different regions and although some can be beneficial, some can be costly in both human and economic terms. The negative impacts will eventually require changes in the design, planning, construction, operation, and maintenance of the transportation system (National Research Council, 2008).

The state’s transportation system is very important and consequently it is critical to understand the impacts climate change may have on it. The nation’s transportation system is designed for specific weather patterns, so the occurrence of sea level rise, increased precipitation, increased temperatures, more intense heat waves, and more frequent and strong hurricanes will impact transportation systems (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2008; IPCC, 2007).

Another important reason to look at climate change and transportation is the significant role transportation has on GHG emissions. Transportation accounts for 14% of GHG emissions and is currently the fastest growing source of GHG emissions (Urry, 2008). It is not only important to understand how climate change will affect transportation and adapt to it, but also to find transport strategies to mitigate climate change (Urry, 2008).

The state’s economy depends on a reliable transportation system. Due to its size, increasing population, and immediacy to Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico, Texas transportation system affects not only Texas, but the entire country’s economy and life quality. Economic development and the transport sector are inevitably connected, since development increases demand for transportation and reliable transportation spurs trade and economic development (IPCC, 2007). The impacts climate change will have on transportation will depend on the particular mode, their physical condition, and 52

Climate Change and Transportation geographic location (National Research Council, 2008). Efficient transportation is essential to Texas’ economy and people’s quality of life. As travel and the number of vehicles continue to grow, congestion becomes a concern. Any disruption in the transportation system and in the goods and services it provides can have instant impacts ranging from irritating, such as flight delays, to catastrophic, such as the chaos created by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in Texas (Savonis et al., 2008).

Adaptation strategies can be very important and include five mitigating options: energy efficiency, biofuels, public transport, non-motorized transport, and urban planning. These strategies not only have the potential to mitigate impacts of global warming, but they can also bring economic benefits that could significantly impact how transportation system is designed in the future (Batac & Lem, 2008). Implementing them can result in positive social, economic, and environmental consequences (IPCC, 2007).

Policies and measure for the transportation sector to address climate change are also very important. Local actions within the United Nations to reduce GHG emissions in the transport sector are becoming increasingly more frequent since the federal Government is not taking measures. The types of measures depend on the state’s needs, capacity, and capabilities (Batac & Lem, 2008). Transportation policies can also bring ancillary benefits, including reduced air pollution and congestion, energy security, and improved access to transport facilities.

In short, the transportation system is crucial for Texas well-being. Since climate change will impact transportation, it is necessary to look at ways to adapt to those impacts and mitigate climate. Texas transportation system is very complex, so it is important to understand it. It is not only important to understand how climate change will affect transportation and adapt to it, but also to find transport strategies to mitigate climate change (Urry, 2008). Along with those policies, ancillary benefits, including reduced air pollution and energy security, are likely to occur.

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