RESEARCH UPDATE KATHY CATTON
How will COVID-19 affect the world of work?
Research is already under way on the impacts of COVID-19 on workplaces. This update looks at some of the findings, specifically in three areas: the implications of global unemployment, the effect on workers’ wellbeing and the impact on leadership.
Implications of global unemployment
Based on different scenarios for the impact of COVID-19 on global GDP growth, preliminary International Labour Organization estimates indicate a rise in global unemployment of between 5.3 million (‘low’ scenario) and 24.7 million (‘high’ scenario) from a base level of 188 million in 2019. The ‘mild’ scenario suggests an increase of 13 million (7.4 million in high-income countries).1
especially vulnerable. An initial assessment by the World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts a decline in international arrivals of up to 25 per cent in 2020, which would place millions of jobs at risk worldwide. Groups identified as particularly vulnerable to unemployment and the poverty associated with it include: • those with underlying health conditions • women who are over-represented in more affected sectors (such as services) or who are in occupations at the frontline of dealing with the pandemic (eg, nurses) • self-employed, casual and gig workers • young people
Though these estimates remain highly uncertain, all figures indicate a substantial rise in global unemployment. By comparison, the global financial crisis of 2008–09 increased unemployment by 22 million. The services sector, tourism, travel and retail are 1 https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/dgreports/dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_738753.pdf 2 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30460-8/fulltext
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• older workers • migrant workers. While economists and academics may make convincing arguments that there is a certain natural level of unemployment that cannot be erased, elevated unemployment is likely to impose high costs (not just financial) on the individual, society and the country. Some of these costs may include challenges to physical and mental health, higher crime, a reduced rate of volunteerism, and a reduction in GDP.
Effect on workers’ wellbeing
Psychologist Samantha Brooks, PhD, at Kings College London, and colleagues, recently published a rapid review of the research on the psychological impact of quarantine,
