White paper Q4/09
Extending the Reach of Telecommunications Services in High Growth Markets
Realize Your Potential
HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD.
Contents 1
I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3
II
DEFINING HIGH GROWTH MARKETS
5
III OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPERATORS
5
3.1 Declines in ARPU can be partially offset by a large number of potential subscribers
6
3.2 Larger scale, better operating effect
6
3.3 Specific groups may bring vitality to your operation
7
IV OPERATOR STRATEGY
7
4.1 Increasing network and business coverage
7
4.2 Business innovation is key to acquiring low-income markets
8
4.3 Striking gold with high-return markets
10 10
V DEFINING SUCCESS FOR OPERATORS 5.1 Low-ARPU Network Solution
11
5.1.1 Affordable Network Construction Costs
13
5.1.2 Affordable Network Operating Costs
14
5.2 Mobile Broadband Solution
15
5.3 Smart services innovation platform
16
5.4 Customized Strategy Matched with Operator's Terminal Roadmap
17
5.5 Wisdom in management and service solution
18
VI
CONCLUSION
19
VII GLOSSARY
20
VIII REFERENCES
I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In recent years, the telecommunications industry has begun to unlock the potential presented by high growth markets (HGM), but the industry has only scratched the surface of this vital and dynamic market. HGMs offer operators unprecedented opportunity in the new global telecommunications market. From their tremendous, and often unconnected, population base, to the high-level of business activity and tourism, this market is ripe for new technology. Many HGMs have introduced open telecommunications regulatory policies aimed at encouraging competition. External forces, such as the strengthening global economy, convergence and penetration of the telecommunications industry, also heighten the appeal. Many international telecommunications giants have shifted their focus from mature and saturated markets to these new arenas. It suggests that the cost of competition for more users continues to rise amid the straight decline of ARPU. To capitalize on the limitless opportunity while managing the challenges of this dynamic market, many operators have found that business innovation is the key to the rapid expansion of network coverage and acquisition of low-income users. Delivering customized solutions to the high-value youth and business community in HGMs has helped operators stand out from the competitive crowd, thus expanding their customer base and increasing revenue. For operators looking to realize their strategic goals in HGMs, it is important to look across ďŹ ve major areas:
1
( 1 ) Low-ARPU Solutions: Using customized low-ARPU solutions help operators to provide basic communications services for more users by effectively managing network construction costs and operating costs ( 2 ) Mobile Broadband Solutions: Solutions that increase quantity and revenue are key to helping operators guarantee user experience in the most cost-effective way under an intelligent network architecture, while protecting their existing investment in the future-oriented evolution process ( 3 ) The Right Service Platform: A exible and innovative service platform is key to delivering a high-quality service experience, which in turn helps to retain and secure more valuable customer resources ( 4 ) Terminal Roadmap Strategy: Finding the right strategy that matches an operator's terminal roadmap, helps operators pursue reďŹ nement and improvement based on their characteristics and needs throughout the planning, manufacturing, marketing, and service furnishing process ( 5 ) Smart Strategic Partnerships: As operators focus on the core business, it is imperative that their strategic partners provide smart management and services solutions as well as dedicated service teams
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II DEFINING HIGH GROWTH MARKETS
HGMs are defined as countries with very large and growing populations, less developed economies, low penetration rates of telecoms services, and immense growth potential. HGMs focused on in this report include China, India and Bangladesh in Asia, Brazil in Latin America, and South Africa in Africa. Due to low income levels, ROI (Return on Investment) and rural-urban divide, HGMs represent tremendous growth opportunities for operators. There is unprecedented opportunity in HGMs for the adoption of cutting-edge services, according to the penetration rates of ICT services. In addition, it has been 10 years since the tenets of the WTO's Basic Telecommunication Agreement - aimed at reducing tariffs on information technology products - took effect, thus aiding the expansion of telecommunication companies worldwide, and in HGMs in particular. The opening up of the telecommunications regulatory system started a trend towards favorable telecommunications policies, while the tremendous growth potential provided opportunity for strong partnerships resulting in state-ofthe-art, next generation networks and services. HGMs offer significant global subscriber growth potential. Overall, according to research by Informa Telecoms & Media, there will be more than one billion[1] broadband subscribers worldwide in 2011, with the majority using a mobile, rather than fixed, system. The HGMs have two distinct market segments. One is the vast, untapped rural and low-income population that is starved of connection with the outside world;
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the other is the well-off consumer segment that has disposable income available for high-tech purchases. Income levels of HGMs generally resemble a pyramid, with the middle class showing the greatest potential for immediate growth. For example, in India, the development of a booming IT service outsourcing industry helped to establish mounts of middle class consumers. When the market segments are further examined, evidence suggests that the true gap comes from age disparity, rather than income, indicating that the highest growth potential will come from the youth market.
100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Figure 1: Age distribution in HGMs[2]
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
III OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPERATORS
Average revenue per user (ARPU) is typically low in HGMs (Mostly between five to 20 dollars and sometimes even less than three). What is the rationale behind continuous investment by new operators in such a competitive and low ARPU environment? The promise of huge subscriber numbers, a scalable business model, and the value brought by various market segments.
3.1
Declines in ARPU can be partially offset by a large number of potential subscribers Two major trends are occurring in HGMs that affect the telecommunications industry – the institution of favorable laws and regulations that encourage foreign and private investment and an extremely congested and competitive marketplace. In 2008, mobile operators saw a rapid decline in RPM (revenue per minute) in nearly all high growth countries. The large amount of potential subscribers could partially offset the negative effects caused by low ARPU. By 2013, telecoms industry analyst Ovum forecasts 5.63 billion connections, up 43 percent from 2008. High growth markets are key to this continued growth. The China-India region (containing China and India, as well as Pakistan and Bangladesh) will continue to be the main connections growth engine, with a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR ) of 12 percent up to 2013. Penetration is forecasted to rise from 40 percent in 2008 to 67 percent in 2013. Asia-Pacific and Africa are also expected to add to the number of connections.[3] It is predicted that subscriber rates will continue to rise steadily in HGMs as current telecom penetration remains low in these areas.
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3.2
Larger scale, better operating effect Not having enough market share, or a scalable business model, is a losing equation for telecom operators, in HGMs in particular. According to the Indian operator Idea's Quarterly Report, the industry had a growth rate of ten percent in total sales and 11 percent in EBITA during the third quarter of 2009, while subscriber rates showed an 11 percent increase over the previous quarter. All of which indicates that scalability plays a critical role in revenue and profits. Increased scale, in combination with precision control, could help operators to increase customer loyalty and create value. In order to gain an edge over the fierce competition, operators should focus on rapidly expanding in the marketplace, seizing opportunities through innovative solutions and business models that allow them to break the broadband bottleneck and provide a ubiquitous broadband experience. To achieve these goals, it is critical for operators to work with a strategic partner who can offer end-to-end-solutions, time-to-market delivery and tailored operational proposals.
3.3
Specific groups may bring vitality to your operation Recently, the youth and business
Country
Average
Below 25
India
24.8
50.3%
Pakistan
20.1
59.5%
itself. As of 2008, the average age of India's
Egypt
24.3
53%
population was 24.8, with 50.3 percent
Turkey
28.2
55%
Mexico
25.6
49%
China
33.6
37%
communities have played a much more important role in high growth countries. The sheer number of young people in some HGMs represents an opportunity in and of
being under 25. Similarly, the average age in Pakistan was 20.1, with 59.5 percent being under 25, and in Mexico, the average age was 25.6, with 49 percent being under 25. [4]
Source: U.S census bureau international data, India 2008
To be successful with this up-and-coming market force, operators must develop strategies targeted to these consumers, such as a focus on pop culture and personalized media. For example, China Mobile, the biggest operator in China, was able to achieve an ARPU of 17 dollars from its youth-based, pre-paid brand, M-Zone. China Mobile's M-Zone brand succeeded because it took the interests of the youth market into account by offering features specifically for them.
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IV OPERATOR STRATEGY
4.1
Increasing network and business coverage Pursuing large numbers of subscribers, without first having a wide and stable coverage network, would be like a river without water or a tree without roots. The GSM network run by Indian operator, Reliance, is a benchmark of the Indian communications market, resulting from its excellent quality, high speed and rate of business delivery. Reliance began initial deployment of this network in 2001, and by 2008, it covered the entire country. The fast and high-quality delivery of Reliance's GSM network allows the company to manage CDMA and GSM dual network operations, while successfully preventing them from competing against each other. Solid GSM network coverage helped Reliance become the number two mobile communications company in India. For operators seeking to deploy new networks and solutions, finding the right partner, who can help them realize their strategic goals, is an essential element of delivering high quality services to end users.
4.2
Business innovation is key to acquiring low-income markets It is forecasted that data, including messaging, revenue will increase at a rate of 79 percent globally over the next five years.[5] Data services in HGMs cannot succeed without focusing on low-income groups. Like with all market segments, attracting and maintaining low-income subscribers requires operators to focus on innovative services related to a community's consumption, educational pursuits, and medical care needs, which can help to improve an operator's reputation, adding value to their brand, and their wallets. For the low-income groups, the service would be universally accepted only when value is defined for them and realized by both the operators and the end users.
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An example of a breakthrough technology is the CellBazaar platform provided by GrameenPhone Company, co-founded by Grameen Telecom and Telenor, which won the "Best Use of Mobile for Social and Economic Development” award in 2009 given by global mobile awards of 3GSMA, for its applications to the agriculture industry. Previously, most rural dwellers in HGMs had limited access to telecommunications, and thus little access to information critical to the agriculture marketplace, such as pricing. Without this information, these dwellers were not able to determine fair market value for their products, leaving most of the profits to the middlemen. CellBazaar technology helps this population to access information about agricultural products by establishing a direct channel between rural dwellers and final buyers, which improves price transparency, reduces the need for a middle man, and increases their income.
4.3
Striking gold with high-return markets How can operators offer the diverse telecom services required in HGMs, while gaining a significant increase in ARPU? By developing a strategy that serves multiple needs and offers innovative solutions, tailored for each individual market segment.
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As discussed earlier, the youth market represents an enormous opportunity for operators in HGMs, as the 25 and under set make up a large percentage of these populations. In view of this, and based on a full study on the youth market's purchasing power and consumption behavior, it is important for operators to use customized marketing strategies and solutions that enable them to get optimal benefits. For example, to reach this market, Globe, a telecom operator in the Philippines, has built partnerships with content service providers such as Yahoo and Friendster. In addition, the company developed its own multi-play, integrated application platform, combining Twitter, Facebook, Friendster, and other popular social media platforms, together to simplify the customer experience. This platform allows people to be able to keep in touch with friends on line when they are, for example, out at a party. However, finding a way to maximize value from an often highly transient market has been a key concern for operators. In many HGM countries, the underdeveloped rural economies urge many to move from home to the more developed cities, resulting in tremendous population mobility. The economies in the more developed regions and cities have resulted in higher numbers of business people in these areas. Understanding each of these market segments and carrying out a specific and targeted marketing program helps operators increase profits.
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V DEFINING SUCCESS FOR OPERATORS Solution
Measures
Benefits to Customers
All-IP Larger capacity and wider coverage Smooth evolution
Reduce TCO, enhance network efficiency, cut down network construction cost, and expand market share.t
Green and energy efficient solution for emission reduction
Reduce network operation cost and realize carbon neutral and green GDP.
Quantity + revenue increase mobile broadband solutions
Solutions such as "Two-Cloud" and Single RAN NGN mobile communication technologies such as HSPA+ and LTE/ SAE IPN
Provide intelligent network architecture, improve wireless air interface utilization, effectively identify P2P traffic and management such traffic, effectively ensure user experience, and protect existing resources.
Smart business innovation platform
"Platform + service + operation" "Platform–converged billing solution"
Meet the greatest differentiated and individualized requirements in the market. Offer one-stop billing solutions.
Customization strategy matched with operator's terminal roadmap
Terminal planning conducted based on customer requirements Chip selection and production according to product planning Bundled sale of products and services
Meet various requirements in the terminal market, build an industry ecosystem, and provide customized terminals and operating systems to end users.
Smart management service solution
EOT Outsourcing Multi-operators management and maintenance
Risk sharing for the employment of new technology and networks Focus on the core business technology Simplify the management and maintenance
Low-ARPU network solutions
5.1
Low-ARPU Network Solution A low-ARPU solution can ensure business success for operators, while helping end users gain equal access rights to information networks. With the help of the operator's network, a rural mountain village can step into the digital world helping poor villagers to change their destinies through modern communications.
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5.1.1 Affordable Network Construction Costs Given the large proportion of network infrastructure investment costs in telecom operators' operating costs, it is crucial for operators to manage network construction costs. Compared with developed countries, the HGM countries enjoy low land, capital construction, and human cost advantages. Their major network cost pressure comes from network facilities. In fact, network equipment prices are not very exible. To drastically slash costs, the operators have no other alternative but to pursue technological innovation in addition to adopting costeffective site design. All-IP Solutions Reduce TCO In the past several years, the maturation of IP technology has brought about all kinds of miracles including the efďŹ cient utilization of network resources and simpliďŹ cation of network structure, all of which have greatly reduced costs, to the surprise and delight of operators. Operators in China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and other countries have realized that the All-IP-based network, ranging from core network to wireless/wired network, builds strong data telecom technology that boosts capability and competitiveness. Strong partnerships are again key to success in this area. Operators should seek partners that advocate All-IP-based networks in ICT, are dedicated to introducing IP technologies to telecommunications networks, and are committed to enhancing the commercial interests of all telecom operators in HGMs. These elements will help operators to protect their existing investment and realize smooth and cost-effective evolution to All-IP networks resulting in commercial success.
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Larger Capacity and Wider Coverage Boost Network Efficiency Operators seeking networks that offer large capacity, high density, and low energy consumption, should incorporate large-capacity networking solutions in the areas of optical transmission, data communications, and core network. These types of solutions have been successfully deployed for high-capacity events such as during the Pilgrimage to Mecca, Diwali Festival in India, and Ramadan in Muslim countries. To meet high growth market demand for reducing network deployment costs, wireless access technology solutions help operators to realize maximum coverage with the minimum number of sites. Some solutions provide coverage solutions that increase the radius by more than 20 percent above the average and increase the area of coverage by 40 percent. Such a coverage level is sufficient to reduce 30 percent of base stations.
Smooth Migration and Evolution Protect Carrier Investment In a high growth market, the latest technologies often coexist with the most traditional services (such as the coexistence of 2G/3G and the evolution to LTE). It is therefore imperative for telecom operators to protect their investment without losing their leadership position. Operators do this by using solutions that provide end-to-end support for smooth evolution from 2G to 3G, while helping them realize carrier-level reliability and ensure effective protection for investment. Application scenarios are changing rapidly in high growth markets. Having solutions that offer unified network management for access to PDH, SDH, ATM, Ethernet, and xDSL through any media such as optical, wireless and cable TV are critical. The leading ASON technology, unified platform, networkbased microwave system, and microwave are coupled with integrated wireless installation and designed to realize low TCO throughout the life cycle of the transmission network. With a large 2G subscriber base, the high growth markets are riding a wave of LTE and solutions are necessary that deliver features such as PDH/SDH convergence, TDM/packet convergence, optical and wireless convergence solutions to realize smooth network migration.
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5.1.2 Affordable Network Operating Costs Network operating costs directly affect each operator's profitability and present a common issue to operators in emerging countries. A complete and mature low OPEX solution can help operators reduce network operating costs. By analyzing the OPEX of telecom operators, Huawei has found that energy consumption accounts for 50 percent. Therefore, the operators can realize OPEX reduction targets by deploying a green and energy saving solution for emission reduction. If one combines this solution with a TCO evaluation, the result is an emission reduction solution with higher economical feasibility. Based on an indepth analysis of many customers' incumbent network data with respect to energy consumption, Huawei has found that operators' energy consumption can be mainly attributed to electrical energy and power consumption concentrated in the access network, including wireless sites and broad access sites. Wireless site energy consumption accounts for over 70 percent of the total energy consumption of many mobile operators, whereas fixed line operators consume a smaller proportion, just over 40 percent, of energy consumption in the access part of the network. Consequently, the focus of network energy efficiency shall be on access network sites, followed by core central offices and transmission networks. In addition, new logistics technology can be used to achieve energy efficiency and emission reduction targets for packaging and transportation in the manufacturing industry.
For many years, the people of the remote southern Pakistan village of Theri Mirwah suffered from poor telecommunications network quality for the low coverage density which was a result of its remote location. The cost of maintaining traditional base stations in the region was prohibitively high. Huawei's "Village Connection Solution" addressed this challenge. In 2008, leveraging the abundant sunlight in the area, Huawei developed a tailored solution adopting solar base stations for the village. Within two months and in spite of significant challenges, including stifling daytime temperatures of 60oC - the country's first solar-powered base station was built. This solar solution meant reduced operating costs and improved network coverage in Theri Mirwah.
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Under an alternative energy solution, solar/wind power and diesel generators are used to reduce network damage due to power supply interruption and greatly save power supply consumption. In the area of fixed line access, the power consumption of a DSL line accounts for approximately 40 percent of the entire port's power. The DSM technology can automatically adjust the PSD template of each DSL line, eliminate crosstalk, boost the line rate by 15 percent, and effectively reduce port power consumption by about 40 percent. The first key energy efficiency measures for the core central office, is to replace traditional servers with blade servers and thus realize drastic reduction in emissions from hardware. For DSL equipment, effective DSM technology can be used to reduce meaningless power consumption by eliminating crosstalk. By deploying an end-to-end green solution, the operators can realize drastic OPEX reduction. Meanwhile, the green solution plays a pivotal role in making operators carbonneutral and turning a green GDP.
5.2
Mobile Broadband Solution In the vast and sparsely populated rural areas of most high growth market countries, telecom operators face enormous network construction difficulty due to complex topography. The traditional fixed line telephony and broadband access mode require hefty investment, whereas mobile broadband is more costcompetitive. Compared with fixed line broadband, mobile broadband can offer greater convenience. In urban areas, the key subscribers of mobile broadband are most likely young people and business people. These two customer groups are the focus for high growth market operators. The traditional mobile broadband solution faces a conundrum that the operator's service revenue cannot grow in proportion to the surging data service traffic. According to our research, when mobile data service traffic grows 50 to100 fold, the corresponding data service revenue grows only by 10 to 20 percent. As a result, the operators have to take into account cost and revenue factors when they make mobile broadband network investments, which adversely affect network construction and operation.
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Solutions are available to operators that can help solve these programs. Intelligent architecture-based broadband network solutions that provide an intelligent network architecture for operators, help them to guarantee user experience in the most cost-effective way. While also enhancing user experience, these solutions can significantly boost wireless air interface utilization efficiency and reduce cost per bit. Combined they can reverse the trend of increasing traffic, without matching revenue gains.
5.3
Smart services innovation platform Value-added services and high-quality network operation are the most important driving forces to improve customer experience. Innovative applications can provide excellent user experience that help operators to maintain and obtain more valued customers, while also pushing network transformation and bringing in create profits. In the Philippines, which has 70 million cell phone users, over 1 billion messages are sent every day, with an average of 14 messages per person[6]. This high messaging volume has brought about even greater industrial value through advertising messages. Offering the right services can supply customers with a greater experience and greater value. Huawei has partnered with an intelligent service provider, specializing in music, to build the “Digital Music Alliance,” which aims to provide a customized integrated solution - “Platform +Services+ Operation,” that meets the needs of differentiation and personalization in developing digital music market.
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Under the trend of industrial integration and transformation, customers have put more emphasis on services and operations. Integrated service solutions including 3G, Full-service and IMS, can operate in a variety of heterogeneous networks, helping operators rapidly deploy new businesses. Huawei's unified and powerful platform “Convergent Billing Solution,” combines the strengths of CAPEX and OPEX and aims to provide one-stop billing service for all users and to help operators reduce CAPEX and OPEX. It can also supply a flexible tariff strategy and specific operation model, helping to enhance subscribers' loyalty.
5.4
Customized Strategy Matched with Operator's Terminal Roadmap Mobile terminals have entered a development stage full of change and vitality. On one hand, the increasingly powerful hardware platform enables mobile terminals to carry an increasing number of functions. New terminals are launched one after another and terminal devices have been changed substantively over recent years. On the other hand, fast-growing mobile communications services in the global high growth market present tremendous growth potential for entrylevel terminals. Telecom operators, software providers and service providers are actively exploring a suitable terminal development path based on their respective strength according to the characteristics of high growth markets. Operators looking to enhance their terminal program can work with partners from the earliest stages of technology development to ensure high returns. Operators can work with partners on the product planning stage, where together they develop market segmentation strategies based on detailed customer behavior characteristic data in the operator's operation and maintenance system, and then formulate a terminal product plan based on customer segmentation and customer behavior trends. The product manufacturing stage would
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involve selecting the appropriate terminal chip platform and entrusting the manufacturing of the terminal device to this partner. The right partner can help operators at the sales stage as well, to leverage their combined channel advantages and realize the bundled sales of terminal products and services. During post-sale, partners work together with the operators to customize the system of operation and undertake reďŹ nement and improvement under an opensource operating system in accordance with the operator's characteristics and needs.
5.5
Wisdom in management and service solution How can operators improve their business, gain customers, and overcome ďŹ erce competition? By paying more attention to the core business in HGMs. For operators looking to save on network management and maintenance, gain beneďŹ ts in rapid deployment, lower costs, have predictable network performance and simplify network management, they should adopt diverse and customized all network E2E solutions including EOT, outsourcing services, multioperators management and co-dimension. For operators needing to deploy a new network or adopting new technology, entering into the market quickly and reducing network deployment and maintenance has been their focus. Solutions that provide services including maintenance organization/process establishment and daily network maintenance can to help operators to reduce risk in new technology/network deployment. Solutions are also available for operators wishing to delegate the duties of daily operation of their core business to strategic partners, including outsourcing services such as NOC maintenance, on-site maintenance, spare parts maintenance and network performance management. For operators with equipment from different providers, there are multi-operators management solutions available to simplify the management complexity.
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VI CONCLUSION High growth markets offer enormous untapped opportunity for the telecommunications industry. By focusing on speciďŹ c market segments, such as the youth and business communities, operators can increase subscriber numbers, loyalty and increase revenue. Customized, tailored solutions can help operators distinguish themselves in this highly competitive market. The key areas of strategic focus for operators in HGMs are implementing lowARPU solutions, cost-effective mobile broadband solutions, innovative and exible platforms, appropriate terminal roadmap strategies, and forming smart strategic partnerships.
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VII GLOSSARY Abbreviations:
Full name:
Abbreviations:
Full name:
ARPU
Average Revenue Per User
IMS
IP Multimedia Subsystem
ASON
Automatically Switched
IPN
Internet Personal Number
Optical Network
LTE
Long Term Evolution
ATM
Asynchronous Transfer Mode
NGN
Next Generation Network
BRIC
Brazil, Russia, India and
NMS
Network Management
China
System
CAPEX
Capital Expenditure
NOC
Network Operations Center
CDMA
Code-Division Multiple
O&M
Operation and Maintenance
Access
OPEX
Operational Expenditure
Coloring Ring Back Tone
P2P
Point to Point
Operation
PDH
Plesiochronous Digital
CRBT DSL
Digital Subscriber Line
DSM
Domain-speciďŹ c Modeling
PSD
Packet Switch Domain
EOT
Ethernet-over-Transport
RNOC
Regional Network
EBITA
Earnings before Interest,
Hierarchy
Operation Center
Taxes and Amortization
RPM
Revenue Per Minute
E2E
End to End
ROI
Return on Investment
FMC
Fixed-mobile Convergence
SAE
System Architecture
GSM
Global System for Mobile Communications
Evolution SDH
Synchronous Digital
HGM
High Growth Market
HSPA
High Speed Packet Access
TCO
Total Cost of Ownership
ICT
Information and
TDM
Time Division Multiplexing
Communications Technology
xDSL
Digital Subscriber Line
Hierarchy
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VII REFERENCES [1] Informa, October 19, 2008. Global Mobile No.11. [2] U.S census bureau international data, 2008. [3] Ovum, Global Mobile Market Outlook 2008-2013. [4] U.S. Census Bureau International Data, 2008. [5] Ovum, Global Mobile Market Outlook: 2008-2013. [6] ZDNet Asia, September 12, 2009. Philippine SMS tax 'burden' and 'dangerous'.
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Realize Your Potential
Realize Your Potential