FEBRUARY 10-17, 2013
HOW TO FIX
THE OSCARS the 9-year-old nominee | de niro’s 32-year drought | 1 degree of separation
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ON THE COVER: ALLSTAR PICTURE LIBRARY / ALAMY (OSCAR); GETTY IMAGES (BANDAGES, SLING)
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features
enter
voices
exit
fixing oscar
pointers
alex gibney
gold rush
The host. The speeches. The whole song and dance.
q&a
david rothschild
culture
by mallika rao
data
tom o’neil
behind the scenes
keeping up with kwuh-ven-juh-nay
style
quoted
nominees
The youngest actress nominee in Oscar history.
live
on the cover:
tfu
by mike ryan
editor letter
Photo Illustration for Huffington by Troy Dunham
about the issue
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inside the fantasy factory ART STREIBER
JOIN THE CONVERSATION ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK
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editor letter
N THIS WEEK’S special issue, our executive entertainment editor Mike Hogan, in the course of mapping his own journey from Oscar skeptic to Oscar fanatic, describes the Academy Awards as “seductive yet infuriating, glamorous yet grubby, essential yet ultimately meaningless.” It’s a description that sums up our collective approach to Hollywood’s biggest night: acknowledging (and poking fun at) its absurdist elements, yet embracing it all — from the rambling speeches to the overdone song-and-dance numbers.
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editor letter
With viewership lagging among the “Funny thing: most actors won’t admit coveted 18-to-49 demographic, and a to wanting an award. If you ask them laundry list of familiar gripes about whether they think they’ll be nomithe Oscars, Mallika Rao asks: How can nated, most actors will wince — actors the show be made betare a superstitious lot — ter? Consulting a range and offer a few innocuous of Oscar experts and enwords about how privithusiasts, she presents leged they feel to have THE a blueprint for improveworked with this or that TIME-HONORED ment, point by point director or co-star. But TRADITION — including the hosts, most actors aren’t eight OF RATTLING speeches, and an overyears old.” Quvenzhané A LIST OF crowded Best Picture catWallis’s answer when NAMES egory. There’s producer asked if she wants to win ‘ISN’T JUST Bill Mechanic, who in an award? “Yes.” 2010 told George Clooney, Even in the movie BORING, IT’S Sandra Bullock, Kathryn world of larger-than-life THE SINGLE Bigelow, and their fellow characters and dreams MOST HATED nominees that the timecome true, few scripts can THING ON THE honored tradition of ratrival Quvenzhané Wal’ SHOW. tling a list of names “isn’t lis’s real-life story: with just boring, it’s the single no acting experience, she most hated thing on the beat out more than 4,000 show.” And if any of this other girls for the lead in year’s winners are prepping accepBeasts. As Wallis puts it, “I know it’s tance speeches that flaunt their politisomething that you wouldn’t cal awareness, here is Gay Talese’s two expect, but it happened.” cents: “Those in Hollywood who think they’re very knowing on policy may want that, but I think it’s stupid.” Elsewhere in the issue, Mike Ryan speaks with Quvenzhané Wallis, the 9-year-old who is the youngest ever Best Actress nominee, for Beasts of the Southern Wild (she was eight at ARIANNA the time of filming). As Ryan writes,
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about this issue
a note from our special issue editor, michael hogan
falling for oscar, flaws and all
Y FATHER taught me to despise awards shows. “If I want to watch the movie, I’ll watch the movie,” he’d say. “Why would I want to watch these people congratulate one another?” And he isn’t some lunkhead. He’s actually someHuffPost Executive Arts & thing of an actor himself, Entertainment Editor Michael Hogan. with a long list of credits at the Right Thing and My Own the local community theater. Private Idaho were routinely I respected his opinion, and ignored, and I learned to aplater molded it to fit my own punk-kid preciate the Oscars for what they are: a resentment. In college, my best friend celebration of cinematic quality, and a was always saying things like, “Can you healthy counterbalance to Hollywood’s believe Art Carney won a freaking Oscar box-office obsession. for Harry and Tonto?” My response was Sure, that idea of quality can be always the same: “Who cares? The Osquirky, even eccentric. Because the cars are bullshit. They never reward any Academy members are who they are of the good films.” — old, white, male, obsessed with the Only years later did I fall under the OsHolocaust — there are lots of great movcars’ spell. I still found them silly, but I set ies that aren’t Oscar movies, and lots aside both my childish loyalty to dad and of Oscar movies that aren’t great movmy adolescent outrage that films like Do ies. (What do Extremely Loud and In-
WENDY GEORGE
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credibly Close, The Blind Side and The Reader have in common? They’re all Best Picture nominees from the past five years that aren’t in your Netflix queue.) But let’s face it. If it weren’t for awards, our multiplexes would be packed with brainless shoot-em-ups, discount horror flicks, gross-out comedies and paint-by-numbers rom-coms. It’s the promise of career-defining hardware that spurs executives to give Steven Spielberg $65 million to resurrect the ghost of Abraham Lincoln, and Kathryn Bigelow $40 million to make an art film about how we got bin Laden. By now, I’ve become a little bit obsessed with the Oscars. It probably started when I began covering Vanity Fair’s legendary Oscar party for the magazine’s website. Dancing alongside the kids from Slumdog Millionaire at 2 a.m., trying to make small talk with Mickey Rourke when he suddenly chucked his empty drink into the shrubbery — these things stick with you, and help you remember that Hollywood is just a town, full of kooky, needy people just like any other. (OK, maybe a bit kookier than most, and a lot needier.) This is all a long way of saying that this issue isn’t your average cash-in-on-Oscarfever special edition. It’s a labor of love, and it reflects the HuffPost team’s peculiar take on the Academy Awards: seductive yet infuriating, glamorous yet grubby, essential yet ultimately meaningless. Our cover story, by Mallika Rao, tackles
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about this issue
the eternal question: “How do we fix the Oscars?” (My favorite suggestion comes from my old V.F. colleague Henry Alford, who would transform the Best Original Song category through an inventive use of ringtones.) Elsewhere, Mike Ryan interviews Quvenzhané Wallis, the youngest Best Actress nominee ever, and asks if it even makes sense for a girl her age to be doing the press rounds. In our Voices section, documentarian Alex Gibney makes a case against Zero Dark Thirty, and Tom O’Neil and David Rothschild offer dueling approaches to predicting the winners. In these and other features, we’ve tried to keep one eye on the real world and another on the great Oscar fantasy that even my dad can’t fully resist. Over the summer, I took him to see “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” and he loved it. A few weeks later, he asked me how the film was doing. “Well,” I told him, “it’ll need some Oscar nominations to reach a bigger audience.” The next time we spoke, he said, “So what do you think of Beasts of the Southern Wild’s Oscar chances?” I was so stunned, I barely knew how to respond, but I sure as hell didn’t say, “Who cares?”
MICHAEL HOGAN
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pointers
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questions we want answered on oscar night by youyoung lee
JESSICA MIGLIO/HBO (GIRLS); STEVE GRANITZ/WIREIMAGE/GETTYIMAGES (ADELE); PAUL DRINKWATER/NBCUNIVERSAL VIA GETTY IMAGES (FOSTER); STEVE GRANITZ/WIREIMAGE/GETTYIMAGES (SEACREST)
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pointers
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What gratuitous way will Lena Will Adele finally reveal her baby name Dunham find to get completely nude? 02 to desperate fans?
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How many times will host Seth MacFarlane make fun of Jodie Foster’s confounding “I am single” speech?
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Revenge hath no fury like Ryan Seacrest scorned: Will he get back at Sacha Baron Cohen for that urn-dumping incident?
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pointers
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Who will most butcher the name of Beasts of the Southern Wild star Quvenzhané Wallis — the youngest actress ever nominated for an Oscar?
PAUL A. HEBERT/GETTY IMAGES FOR LAFCA (WALLIS); AP PHOTO/20TH CENTURY FOX (LIFE OF PI); DIMITRIOS KAMBOURIS/WIREIMAGE/GETTY IMAGES (PITT, CLOONEY); KEVIN WINTER/GETTY IMAGES (LAWRENCE); CHARLES SYKES/BRAVO/NBCU PHOTO BANK VIA GETTY IMAGES (STREEP)
08 Will bros George Clooney and Brad Pitt make lady friends Angelina Jolie and Stacy Keibler pose awkwardly together again?
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Will Emma Stone introduce Stoneing, the act of a celebrity lifting her dress to reveal a stone strapped onto her leg a la Jolie’ing, to the world?
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06 Last year’s red carpet star turned out to be a pint-size Jack Russell Terrier named Uggie. Will Ang Lee make that look like child’s play by bringing Richard Parker, the untamable CGI tiger from Life of Pi, as his guest?
Oprah, Uma. Uma, Oprah. Have you kids met Keanu? Will Oprah and Uma finally have a turn at getting back at David Letterman for that gravely unfunny joke at the 1995 Oscars?
10 Finally: Please, please tell us that Meryl Streep is planning on throwing some serious shade at Jennifer Lawrence for her sing-song “I beat Meryl” quip.
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q&a
the dos and don’ts of oscar season, according to
anne hathaway
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PREVIOUS PAGE: FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES; THIS PAGE: © 2012 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS
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ROM THE Golden Globes to the SAG Awards, and at most stops in between, Anne Hathaway has proved she is the woman to beat in the Oscar race for Best Supporting Actress, claiming trophy after trophy for her performance in Tom Hooper’s Les Misérables. By now, you’ve read and heard all about that performance — the 35 pounds she lost, the hair she cut mere months before her wedding, the singing she did live, on a freezing, stinking set, instead of overdubbing it in the safety of a recording studio. So we decided to ask her about more urgent matters — like that joke Tina Fey made at her expense during the Golden Globes, and the pros and cons of wearing white around Valentino (who, we might add, designed her wedding dress). — Michael Hogan
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DANA EDELSON/NBC
Anne Hathaway on Saturday Night Live in 2012, with Keenan Thompson (center) and Bill Hader (right).
Our Oscar Predictions Dashboard gives you a 99.2% chance of winning Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars. Are you nervous anyway, or are you feeling cool and collected? Is there a third option? Because I am just very grateful. I’ve had plenty of years in my career where I haven’t made it to this part of the conversation. Making it here is the gift and the goal, and I feel really proud of that.
sight of is how vulnerable everyone feels. It’s very easy to look at people in these gorgeous dresses that cost more than a college education and diamonds and hairdos and forget that everyone is probably shaking in their stilettos.
What’s one thing people who haven’t experienced Oscar season first-hand don’t realize about it? I don’t actually know what people don’t know, but what I think people lose
And how many times will Hugh Jackman have forced you to sing at various events? I am starting to lose count. He is so good at that. He is so charming and persuasive
How many award shows will you have attended by the time you get to the Oscars? I’m not sure, but at least half a dozen.
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Hathaway poses for a portrait with her Les Misérables co-star Hugh Jackman. PHOTO OR ILLUSTRATION CREDIT TK
q&a
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that he makes me forget that YouTube and the Internet actually exist.
Don’t take my advice. Call Hugh. And get Emma Stone to co-host with you. You two were adorable at the announcements.
Did Tina Fey warn you that she was going to going to send that zinger your way at the Golden Globes? No, she didn’t. I actually appreciated it. There was a part of me that thought, “Oh, I can go home with something special now.” It is a little bit of an honor to be singled out, isn’t it? I have never been made fun of at one of these things before. I have never been a punch line. It is actually an honor. It’s a thrill.
How does your fashion approach differ between the Globes and the Oscars? Practically speaking, there is more room to have a train at the Oscars. At the Globes, because of the layout, with everybody sitting together, I learned the hard way [HUGH that you must never wear JACKMAN] a train. You will either be IS SO tripped on, or tripped up CHARMING or tripping yourself up all AND night. I wore a train the PERSUASIVE first time I was nominatTHAT HE ed, and first of all it just scooped up all of the red MAKES ME carpet. And second of all FORGET THAT I was just a death trap for YOUTUBE anybody that came near AND THE me. With the Oscars, you INTERNET have a little more room.
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I read that you warned Claire Danes before impersonating her Homeland character on Saturday Night Live. Did you happen to run into her at The Golden Globes? I did. I had just finACTUALLY ished my press and she was EXIST. backstage after she had And I guess at the Globes you won, and I was just so gobwant to wear something where smacked at how great she it wouldn’t be too problematic if looked. I mean, she had just somebody were to spill a glass given birth about three seconds ago. And of red wine on you. Well, that happened to she was absolutely smoking. [Pause.] me, but not at the Globes. That hapLike hot — not like that! Clear that up: pened to me at a premiere for ValentiClaire Danes is not a neglectful mother. no’s movie, and he and a producer friend of mine, Jeffrey Sharp, actually spilled So do you have any advice for Seth MacFarlane, an entire vat of red wine all over me. drawing on your experience as an Oscar host? And I was wearing a white dress.
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Hathaway and husband Adam Shulman at the 19th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards in 2013.
MATT SAYLES/INVISION/AP
What do you do in that situation? You just laugh and smile. I tried to get Valentino to autograph the dress, but he wouldn’t do it. It actually wound up looking really pretty — it was like an ombre effect. And I couldn’t really get that mad, because it was not even my dress. Over the past 10 years, two actresses have won Best Supporting Actress for their performances in musicals. One was Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls, and the other was Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago, in 2003. Where were you on Oscar night in 2003? I think I was
in the Josselyn common room at Vassar.
Watching it on TV? Well, I missed the first part because I had a cappella practice. I remember being very confused, because we had just gone to war with Iraq and there was a lot of talk about “Should they cancel it? What should we do?” And I thought Nicole Kidman gave the most beautiful, thoughtful response to that when she said, “I am so happy to be here tonight, because art is important.” I was just very grateful to her for that little rally cry.
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ALL ROADS LEAD TO P.S.H.
This year’s acting nominees share more than the ‘honor’ — they each have a lover, friend or
colleague in common with fellow Oscar contender Philip Seymour Hoffman. — Gazelle Emami
Supporting Actor/ Actress Nominee Best Actor/ Actress Nominee P.S.H. Connection Secondary Connection
TAP NOMINEES FOR TEXT
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN
PHOTO ORTROY GRAPHIC: ILLUSTRATION DUNHAM CREDIT TK
THE MASTER
Tap for Photo Credits
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style
oscar fashion evolution
With Oscar night just weeks away, we take a look back at what the biggest stars have worn to the awards in years past and discover how their style has evolved. And has it ever: From a young Angelina Jolie in frills to Jennifer Lopez in sequins, Oscar dresses have grown up along with the celebrities who have donned them. (Except you, Diane Keaton.)
by christina anderson
tap each person to see style evolution
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live q&a
argo writer chris terrio: why we upped the suspense
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We don’t know whether the Iranians were 12 hours behind, 12 minutes behind … we thought, in the absence of certainty, we’re just going to make it the most nail-biting, adrenalineproducing version that we can.
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FROM TOP: © 2012 WARNER BROS. ENTERTAINMENT INC.; CARLO ALLEGRI/GETTY IMAGES
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Above: The cast of Argo. Below: Terrio poses during the Sundance Film Festival, where his first feature film Heights premiered in 2005.
FOR THE FULL INTERVIEW, VISIT HUFFPOST LIVE
HUFFINGTON
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alex gibney Jessica Chastain plays CIA operative Maya in Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty.
©2012 ZERO DARK THIRTY, LLC.
zero dark thirty’s wrong and dangerous conclusion T’S DIFFICULT FOR one filmmaker to criticize another. That’s a job best left to critics. However, in the case of Zero Dark Thirty, an issue that is central to the film — torture — is so important that I feel I must say something. Mark Boal and
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Kathryn Bigelow have been irresponsible and inaccurate in the way they have treated this issue in their film. I am not alone in that view. The film conveys the unmistakable conclusion that torture led to the death of Osama bin Laden. That’s wrong and dangerously so, precisely because the
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film is so well-made. examination of more than six million pagLet me say, as many others have, that es of records from the Intelligence Comthe film is a stylistic masterwork, an inmunity, the CIA did not obtain its first spiration in terms of technique from the clues about the identity of bin Laden’s lighting, camera, acting and viscerally courier from “CIA detainees subjected to realistic production and costume design. coercive interrogation techniques.” Also, as a screen story, it is admirable for I want to focus my concern on three its refusal to funnel the hunt for bin Laden ways in which the film is fundamentally into a series of movie clichés — love interreckless when it comes to torture. ests, David versus Goliath struggles, etc. More than 1) THE VERY STYLE OF THE FILM that, the film does an adBeautifully lit, the film is mirable job of showing how often shot with a handheld WHEN IT complex was the detective camera to emphasize the COMES TO work that led to the death urgency of a cinema verite TORTURE THE , of bin Laden. It’s all the documentary, which lends FILM FAILS THE more infuriating therefore, the narrative a false sense TRUTH TEST because the film is so attenof “truthiness.” This is one FOR BOTH tive to the accuracy of dereason I bristled when Boal tails —from wiretapping to said he shouldn’t be held reACCOUNTANTS use of informants to careful sponsible for the film’s conAND POETS. informed analysis — that it tent because it is “a movie is so sloppy when it comes not a documentary.” If the to portraying the efficacy of notion of a documentary is torture. That may seem like a small thing so distasteful, why shoot it like one? but it is not. If we believe that torture On the other hand, Bigelow says this “got” bin Laden, then we will be more film is a “journalistic account.” So which prone to accept the view that a good “end” one is it? You can’t have it both ways. can justify brutal “means.” According to those who have access to 2) THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER the classified files, torture was not key to ZD30 opens in darkness, with the unearthing the first key to finding bin Lad- soundtrack haunted by the voices of vicen. One can refer to the press release of tims and rescue workers on 9/11. Then the Senate Intelligence Committee’s study the film cuts to a CIA “black site,” where of the CIA’s Detention and Interrogation a man named Ammar is being tortured Program, which concludes, following the by a CIA agent named Dan (Jason Clarke)
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©2012 ZERO DARK THIRTY, LLC.
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while another agent, Maya (well-acted by Jessica Chastain) looks on. For me, along with the ending, this was one of the film’s best moments. The juxtaposition of the agony of 9/11 with the payback that followed — waterboarding detainees, walking them around in dog collars (recall Lyndie England) and stuffNavy Seals raid bin Laden’s compound in this ing them in small plywood still from Zero Dark Thirty. boxes — perfectly captured the morality or efficacy of a bitter poetic truth about torture. Every mention or how members of the Bush portrayal of torture butAdministration responded to tragedy. tresses the case for its necessity. We don’t CIA spokespeople have noted the actual see how corrupting it was, how many miswaterboarding done by the CIA was more takes were made. Instead, the narrative controlled and antiseptic than that porengine of Boal’s detective story is kicktrayed in the film. That may be so. But started by torture. the fact of the matter is the CIA appears When the full history of “Enhanced to have observed or supervised many Interrogation Techniques” is told we will “harsh” interrogations conducted either see that it was not only brutal and counby independent contractors or ruthterproductive, but ridiculous. The CIA less foreign allies. To compress time and waterboarded Abu Zubaydah 83 times space, I accept the way Boal and Bigelow and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed 183 times. created a “composite” harsh interrogation Considering the repetition, just how efcombining evidence from all of those. fective were those techniques? And how So give points to Boal and Bigelow for good does the CIA look for insisting on not pussyfooting around. They make it mindless repetition of useless tactics? clear the CIA (or CIA-supervised contrac(Note: Clues to understanding what really tors) tortured people as part of a “dehappened – the videotapes of CIA watertainee program.” But what’s distressing — boarding – were destroyed by the CIA’s given that tough-minded beginning — is Jose Rodriguez, an act that warranted a that the filmmakers don’t ever question criminal indictment for the destruction of
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evidence, in my view.) The rationale for the invasion of Iraq was based on the false testimony of Ibn Sheikh al-Libi. Following productive, lawful interrogation by the FBI al-Libi was handed over to the CIA, rendered to Egypt and tortured there. He was not waterboarded by the CIA. Under “harsh interrogation,” he confessed to connections between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein, which was used to justify the invasion of Iraq. Around a year later, after it was too late, the CIA admitted al-Bibi had given false testimony. Whoops! While the filmmakers do show American brutality, they suggest it was necessary. Absent any other kind of interrogation, viewers must conclude that beating people is the only way to get answers. 3) WHAT IS MISSING
“Inspired” by the military’s SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape) program (intended to teach soldiers how to resist the torture of immoral regimes), three individuals were officially waterboarded by the CIA: Abd al-Rahim alNashiri, Abu Zubaydah and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Advocates of the CIA program like to cite Zubaydah as an example of how waterboarding worked. But in fact, before Zubaydah was waterboarded 83 times, he was interrogated by an FBI agent named Ali Soufan. Soufan used lawful interrogation techniques to get all the valuable information AZ had to offer,
alex gibney
including the identity of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. More relevant to the film is the fact that KSM, during his waterboarding program, denied the importance of bin Laden’s courier, Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti — a man who ultimately helped lead investigators to bin Laden. So confident was the CIA in the effectiveness of waterboarding — despite evidence to the contrary — they assumed KSM was telling the truth about the unimportance of al-Kuwaiti when he was lying. Their unjustified confidence in waterboarding likely derailed the hunt for bin Laden’s courier until the the name of al-Kuwaiti surfaced during the interrogation of Hassan Ghul. (In the film, the detainee character named “Ammar” was likely a composite of Ghul, Ammar alBaluchi and Mohammed al-Qatani, who revealed information about al-Kuwaiti through traditional interrogation techniques, long before Ghul. ) Boal and Bigelow, by all accounts, are frustrated that the discussion of their film has been bogged down in a political debate that they want no part of. I would say, in response, that the debate is not political at all. The subject of torture is one of the great moral issues of our time. Boal and Bigelow shouldn’t run from it. They should engage it. Alex Gibney is an Oscar-winning documentarian. To read the full version of this article, tap here. For a defense of ZD30 by documentarian Michael Moore, tap here.
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david rothschild
JESSE GRANT/GETTY IMAGES
what is predictive of the oscars?
SPENT SEVERAL weeks this winter immersed in spreadsheets full of historical Oscar data to explore methods of using fundamentals to predict Oscar winners. Fundamental models work really well in forecasting political elections, where significant categories of data include: past election results, incumbency, presidential approval, ideology, economic indicators and biographical data. Yet, fundamental models are much less efficient in forecasting awards shows, where they would include categories such as: studio inputs, box office success,
Final Oscar ballots are prepared before being sent off to judges.
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subjective ratings, Oscar nominations and a nominee, they are not predictive of biographical data. The reason is simple: the eventual winner. For example, movPrior to the other awards shows, there is ies released late in year are more likely a dearth of variables that properly idento get a nomination for an Oscar, relatify individual award categories, as most tive to movies released in the spring; but data is just movie specific. conditional on getting nomination, they But, there are two goals of fundamenare no more likely to win the Oscar. tal models: forecasting and determining which variables have predictive power. BOX OFFICE SUCCESS: This category includes While fundamental models do not make variables like: gross revenue, screens, avgreat forecasts for the Oscars relative to erage gross revenue per screen, these valother data including prediction markets, ues on the first week of wide release and they can still provide insight into which the first four weeks of wide release, and variables we should follow. many other combinations. Between gross All of the insights in this column are revenue and number of screens there are into the predictive power of variables, some really interesting variables to conconditional on a movie getting a nominasider here. This is further complicated tion for an Oscar, at the by the staggered opening time of the nomination. of many Oscar nominated How well a movie does in movies. After much investiIT IS NO the box office, especially gation, the predictive power SURPRISE after a few weeks, the popuin this category is highly THAT THE lar ratings, and how many correlated with the change OSCAR nominations the movie that happens over the first receives are all significant few weeks. A key inflection VOTERS predictive variables. point appears to be between VALUE weeks four and five. For THEIR OWN STUDIO INPUTS: This category Best Picture I follow this JUDGMENT , includes variables like variable closely: 2*Gross AND MOVIES budget, release date, genre, Week 5 - Gross Week 4. WITH MORE and when the movie goes From week four to week NOMINATIONS to wide release. Some of five, Argo went from $13.3 these variables correlated million to $9.0 million, TEND TO strongly with whether a while Lincoln went from DO WELL IN movie gets a nomination, $18.0 million to $12.4 milWINNING but conditional on being lion. Thus, from this ru-
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bric, Lincoln has a slightly healthier $6.8 million to $4.7 million, but this is a not a significant difference.
david rothschild
Accountants from PricewaterhouseCoopers prepare ballots at the 84th Academy Awards Final Oscar Ballot mailing.
ALBERTO E. RODRIGUEZ/GETTY IMAGES
SUBJECTIVE RATING: This category includes
variables like: popular and critical ratings, along with the MPSAA rating. In the battle between popular and critical ratings the people win! Popular ratings dwarf the critical ratings in predictive power. Interestingly, Lincoln and Argo are tied in critical ratings, but Argo is leading Lincoln 93 to 86 in popular ratings. OSCAR NOMINATIONS: It is no surprise that
that the Oscar voters value their own judgment, and movies with more nominations tend to do well in winning Oscars! There is significant and meaningful predictive power in the number of Oscar nominations a movie receives.
In this category, Lincoln dominates with 12 nominations to Argo’s 7 nominations.
BIOGRAPHICAL DATA: This category includes
variables like: age, previous nominations, previous wins, and lifetime wins. Nominations and wins certainly have predictive power in the four main categories of: actor, actress, supporting actor and supporting actress. For these categories more nominations is a positive predictive sign. While not the case in the main categories, in less well-known categories, repeated victories by the same people are more common and, correlate significantly with victory. David Rothschild is an economist who works for MSR-NYC studying social media data, polling, and markets.
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what will the oscar upsets be? OTHING IN HOLLYWOOD goes according to script, especially at the Oscars. In past years, for example, just when most of the award pundits made up their minds that Viola Davis (The Help) and Julie Christie (Away
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Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. The Steven Spielberg film is a favorite to win Best Picture.
from Her) would win Best Actress of 2011 and 2007, Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) and Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) pulled off jaw-droppers. This year the pundits polled by Gold Derby say Lincoln will win Best Picture, Director Steven Spielberg, Actor (Daniel
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Day-Lewis) and Supporting Actor (Tomby Oscar voters. Hollywood’s most remy Lee Jones). Best Actress is believed vered director has only won Best Picto be between Jennifer Lawrence (Silver ture once: Schindler’s List (1993). He’s Linings Playbook) and Jessica Chastain received the director’s trophy twice (Zero Dark Thirty), and it’s widely pre(Saving Private Ryan in 1998 plus sumed that Anne Hathaway (Les MisSchindler’s List), but he’s got one less erables) has Supporting Best Picture than MiActress in the bag. los Forman (Amadeus in Pundit support for Lin1984, One Flew Over the IF THERE’S coln is bolstered by the Cuckoo’s Nest in 1975) ONE APPLE fact that it leads with the and Clint Eastwood (Milmost nominations (12), lion Dollar Baby in 2004, IN A BAG which usually translates Unforgiven in 1992). That OF ORANGES into victory in the top race. hardly seems fair. AT ANY However, let’s recall that Lincoln has been a box ’S AWARD Hugo had the most bids office hit ($162 million) COMPETITION , last year and The Artist praised by film critics (91 THE APPLE took Best Picture. score at Rotten Tomatoes), OFTEN WINS Lincoln does have a few which is usually a winning other things going for it. Oscar combination, but IN AN UPSET. Historically, voters have it’s vulnerable in this derdemonstrated that they by. While voters admire like big, epic biographies it, enjoy it and respect it, like The Last Emperor (1987) and Ganthere’s actually more passion and gushdhi (1982). Also, it’s important that ing love for Argo and Silver Linings a film have a compelling story behind Playbook, according to my own personthe story it tells on screen. Last year’s al survey of Academy members. Passion victory by The Artist signaled a triumusually cinches victory. phant return of silent movies just as Yeah, yeah, yeah, Argo doesn’t have that the current film biz copes with the adcorresponding nomination for Best Direcvent of 3-D and the internet. The Detor that’s usually essential to victory, but parted (2006) won because the Acadthat may actually help its chances. Many emy wanted to make up for past snubs Academy members I’ve spoken to want to to Martin Scorsese. rally to Ben Affleck’s wounded side. If they You could argue that Spielberg vote for Argo or Silver Linings Playbook hasn’t been sufficiently appreciated for Best Picture, they feel like they can
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still give Spielberg the director’s gold and apple often wins in an upset. Riva has take good care of him too. other things going for her (art house apPersonally, I’m betting on Argo to peal, respect for her venerable career) win Best Picture. I think voters like and so does Wallis. Voters adore little its back story of Hollywood saving the girls and have showered Oscars on them world (or at least saving the U.S. durin the past (Anna Paquin, Tatum O’Neal, ing the Iran conflict back in the 1970s) Patty Duke) despite their youth. and it is, arguably, the best movie of The battle over Best Supporting Ac2012 according to film critics. Of all tor is a toss-up. If Lincoln, Argo or SilBest Picture nominees, it’s ver Linings Playbook wins got the highest score at Best Picture, Tommy Lee Rotten Tomatoes (97). But Jones, Alan Arkin or Robdon’t rule out a surprise ert De Niro may go along YOU COULD by Silver Linings Playfor the ride. Curiously, ARGUE THAT book. It’s bursting with this category is filled with SPIELBERG heart and look who’s drivfive past winners — that’s ’ HASN T BEEN ing its Oscar campaign — never happened before. SUFFICIENTLY Harvey Weinstein — who Those three chaps are APPRECIATED won Best Picture the past beloved veterans, which two years (The Artist and helps. Voters often turn BY OSCAR The King’s Speech). this category into a VeterVOTERS. Nobody can trip up Danans’ Achievement Award. iel Day-Lewis in the Best Personally, I think De Niro Actor race or Anne Hathawill take it this year. way in the Supporting Actress contest, But Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Masbut upsets are possible for Best Actress ter) and Christoph Waltz (Django Unand Supporting Actor. I agree that Jenchained) are serious rivals. Arguably, they nifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastain will have lead roles secretly slumming it in probably snag the ladies’ laurels, but Oscar’s supporting contest. Size matters, watch out for Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) especially in Hollywood. Other factors: and Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Hoffman has the support of snooty cineasSouthern Wild). Their ages make them tes; Waltz has the backing of wags extremely different from other contendwho like to vote for other rascals. ers and being different is often key to victory. If there’s one apple in a bag of Tom O’Neil is is the founder of GoldDerby. oranges at any award’s competition, the com, an awards-show prediction site.
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‘‘ SHIRLEY MACLAINE: WE HAVE
PETER USTINOV: DO YOU THINK WE SHOULD EXPLAIN WHAT ‘SPECIAL EFFECTS’ ARE? SHIRLEY MACLAINE: WELL, PETER, THEY ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT AND COMPLICATED TO EXPLAIN … —1959
During the 50s and 60s, many special effects underwent huge development, increasing the realism of sci-fi films.
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FROM TOP: RON GALELLA/WIREIMAGE/GETTY IMAGES; PARAMOUNT PICTURES/GETTY IMAGES; HULTON ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES; CHARLOTTE OBSERVER/MCT VIA GETTY IMAGES
BEEN ASKED TO ANNOUNCE THE WINNER OF THE AWARD FOR SPECIAL EFFECTS.
quoted
“ My name is Chevy Chase and I must say I feel privileged to be your host this evening. Actually I’m one of your cohosts. Well, that’s not true. I’m really a replacement. I’m sorry to have to tell you that Jim and Tammy Bakker couldn’t make it tonight. Apparently she’s taking some kind of a trip and he had to be part of some major affair.” — CHEVY CHASE,1987
The Bakkers were television evangelists whose business fell apart after a series of sex and money scandals in 1987.
“ 1954 was a big year in the movie business. That’s the year that Twentieth Century Fox lost Marilyn Monroe. Darryl Zanick stamped his foot so hard they struck oil.” — BOB HOPE, 1955
on the famous studio executive and then head of Twentieth Century Fox.
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on the producer best known for films like Gone with the Wind and Rebecca. At the time of these Oscars, he had two films out.
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quoted “Cecil B. Demille is about to make The Ten Commandments. Two of them he couldn’t get by the Breen office.”
— BOB HOPE, 1955
When Joseph Breen took over the Motion Picture Production Code, films were much more rigorously censored than before.
“ There’s a special award for bravery for the producer who made a picture without Grace Kelly.” — BOB HOPE, 1955
Grace Kelly had three big films out in 1954: Rear Window, Dial M for Murder, and The Country Girl.
‘‘ BOB HOPE: BURT, DO YOU WANT
ME TO STICK AROUND AND HELP YOU TEAR OPEN THE ENVELOPE? BURT LANCASTER: YOU COULD SLIT IT OPEN. BOB HOPE: LET’S NOT HAVE ANY NOSE JOKES THIS FAR DOWN INTO THE SHOW. —1962
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CLOCKWISE FROM TOP LEFT: HULTON ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES (MONROE); ABC PHOTO ARCHIVES/ABC VIA GETTY IMAGES; MICHAEL OCHS ARCHIVES/GETTY IMAGES; AP PHOTO; ABC PHOTO ARCHIVES/ABC VIA GETTY IMAGES
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“now to give you an idea of how i personally feel about cary. i like to say that if cary grant had starred in this particular film called the kissing bandit, it would’ve been the biggest hit of all time.”
— FRANK SINATRA, 1970
The Kissing Bandit was a 1948 film starring Frank Sinatra that became known as one of MGM’s biggest flops.
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“JOHN SINGLETON DIRECTED BOYZ N THE HOOD: THE DAVID DUKE STORY.”
David Duke is a former Grand Wizard of the Knights of the KKK. He was a candidate in the Republican presidential primaries in 1992.
“TONIGHT WE HAD THE FIRST CARTOON EVER NOMINATED — NOT COUNTING DAN QUAYLE.”
Quayle was the Vice President of the U.S. with George H.W. Bush.
— BILLY CRYSTAL, 1992
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“And who can forget Jurassic Park, the story of what happens when you build an amusement park and everything goes wrong. The original title was EuroDisney. And that’s one real estate disaster they cannot blame on Hillary.”
The Whitewater scandal, which began with investigations into the real estate investments of Bill and Hillary Clinton, was being examined in 1994.
“The Fugitive, a thriller about a person who spent days and days running just one step ahead of the law. But enough about Tonya Harding.” Tonya Harding was an Olympic figure skater who became notorious in 1994 for attacking fellow figure skater Nancy Kerrigan.
— WHOOPI GOLDBERG, 1994
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N FEBRUARY 15, 2010, at the annual
luncheon for Oscar nominees, producer Bill Mechanic delivered a simple message: stick a cork in it. “We want you to think about [the speeches] more seriously than you have in the past,” Mechanic told George Clooney, Sandra Bullock, Kathryn Bigelow and the rest of the 2010 Oscars class assembled at
the Beverly Hilton hotel, according to the Los Angeles Times. The ritual of rattling off a list of names while the world looks on “isn’t just boring,” declared Mechanic, who co-produced that year’s ceremony. “It’s the single most hated thing on the show.”
If only that were true. If only there were a single most hated thing about the Oscars, and a simple way to kill that thing. (Mechanic’s idea was to create a “thank-you cam” where grateful nominees could thank their agents, junior high school principals, etc., in videos that would be posted online.) But dull speeches are just one gripe in a chorus that starts up every
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AP PHOTO/MARK J. TERRILL
Host Billy Crystal performs onstage during the 84th Academy Awards in 2012.
year without fail: the Oscars are too long, too boring, too white, too bland. Last year, a New York Times article added a new insult, wondering if Hollywood’s premier awards institution had finally become “resistible.” Viewership has stalled in the lusted-after 18-to-49 demographic. And desperate attempts to lure the bloc back — for instance, casting James Franco and Anne Hathaway as co-hosts armed with little experience but plenty of jokes about texting — only make the
Academy seem more out of touch. On the battleground for relevance that is Twitter, the Oscars are also losing. More people watched the Grammys than the Oscars in 2012 (for the first time since 1984), and there were more tweets about the Grammys too, thanks to the show’s spry reorganization into a Whitney Houston memorial service. It’s not as if there had been nothing to talk about: Billy Crystal resurfaced as host after years off, looking like a wax version of his younger self (and, at one strange point, appearing in blackface). Iran, catalyst of so much online energy,
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I DON’T WANT TO HAVE SOMEBODY GIVE ME THEIR VIEW OF PRESIDENT KARZAI ... THOSE IN HOLLYWOOD WHO THINK THEY’RE VERY KNOWING ON POLICY MAY WANT THAT, BUT I THINK IT’S STUPID. — AUTHOR GAY TALESE
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won the country’s first-ever Oscar, for A Separation. Angelina Jolie introduced the world to her leg. But social-media experts still pronounced the night a bore. “We were prepared for big spikes,” Jenn Davis, CEO of the analytics company TweetReach, told TechCrunch. Davis was talking about spikes in tweets per second — or units of engagement, as a television executive might put it. But, on Oscar night 2012, “We just didn’t see those.” So, you may be asking, what’s an Academy to do? Assign 100 sham Twitter accounts per member? Return to the untelevised days of old, when the show stretched past 2 a.m. some years, with no FCC censors (or Twitter) around to ruin the fun? In the spirit of proposing a problem and also a solution, The Huffington Post canvassed critics, producers, and general know-it-alls to outline a master plan for the future. The prompt was simple: how would you fix the Oscars? The answers, compiled below, aren’t quite so straightforward. But taken together, they speak to the potential of a better night for all involved. All we can hope is that Don Mischer, producer of this year’s ceremony, is wearing his reading glasses.
THE HOST
On this matter, “there’ll always be a quarrel,” the writer Gay Talese told HuffPost over the phone. And yet, among those we polled, one host in particular turned up the same review. Billy Crystal is — let’s all say it together —“past his sell-by date, as gallant as he’s been over the years,” said MovieLine editorial director Frank DiGiacomo, who rang HuffPost from the Sundance Film Festival. “They’re trying Seth Mac-
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“I’d like to thank the Academy.” Clockwise: Sandra Bullock 2010, Melissa Leo 2011, Octavia Spencer 2012, Jean Dujardin 2012, Jeff Bridges 2010 and Jerry Lewis 2009.
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Farlane, because they want young, brash and unpredictable, but he’s got his work cut out for him. The tone is incredibly important. You’re in a room of people whom you want to make laugh, but they’re sensitive. It’s very easy to offend them.” Is testing the line-toeing skills of every comic in the Western world really the answer? (Or deeming them unfit even before tests, as happened to Sacha Baron Cohen, who was invited, then banned, from the stage in 2010?) Jeremy Boxer,
director of the Vimeo Film Festival, a showcase for online videos, suggested “looking at hosts in a different way. They don’t necessarily have to be funny.” At both Vimeo festivals (there have only been two so far), the host functioned as a master of ceremonies, in charge of mild transitions, or “punctuation points,” between moments devoted to the show’s true focus: the nominated films and players. Sparing funny people from the Sisyphean task of simultaneously ripping into and coddling a bunch of touchy actors could revolutionize awards shows (or just neuter the
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THE SPEECHES
“A concise speech is always a good idea. You could give the winners forever, and they still wouldn’t have enough time to thank their grandmother and their piano teacher,” Showbiz411 writer Roger Friedman assured The Huffington Post. “Tell them to be concise,” Friedman suggested, when we asked him how to achieve the desired end. But ... the thank-you cam! Bill Mechanic’s instructions! If it were as simple as telling the nominees why and how to cut things short, why haven’t past tactics worked? Because everyone wants their gratitude to be heard, and will sneak the lines in no matter how many times they’ve been asked not to, said Boxer, of Vimeo. He proposed a way to build a winners’ thank-you list into the architecture of the show instead. Scenario: Catherine, an actress wearing heels and a big dress, wins. “It’s going to take her 45 seconds to get to the podium,” Boxer said. “That time could be used by the announcer saying, ‘Catherine
FILM ALL [THE PRESENTERS] IN ADVANCE, OFF-LOCATION. HUGH JACKMAN AND HALLE BERRY PRESENT BEST SOUND, RINGSIDE FROM A BOXING MATCH … JOSH BROLIN AND KATE HUDSON PRESENT BEST SPECIAL EFFECTS FROM CHER’S PERSONAL DAY SPA.
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genre once and for all). But reducing the host’s screen time won’t necessarily save our night, unless something can be done about that most hated thing.
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wanted to thank her manager and this person and that person.’ By the time she comes to the stage, it’s no longer a fight against the music.” Also, no repeating your speech from the Golden Globes, or even the Screen Actors Guild Awards, once you’re up there, Catherine! Channel the “wacky and emotionally pure” spirit of Jodie Foster at the 2013 Golden Globes instead, and go off-script, advised MovieLine’s DiGiacomo. “These actors are so relentlessly on-message, it takes away the thrill of the Oscars.” Or there’s the “scorecard” idea, emailed to HuffPost by humorist Henry Alford. This system works beautifully both as a way to enliven bad speeches and to illustrate how inbred the Hollywood thank-you lists are: “Run tiny icons of Harvey Weinstein, Sam Mendes, all the dialects coaches, etc. on a ban-
i x i n g o s c Robin Williams performs the song “Blame Canada” from South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut, nominated for Best Original Song, during the 72nd Academy Awards in March 2000.
ner; each time someone thanks, say, Harvey, the Harvey icon’s head would swell with volume.”
TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
THE POINT
“I don’t want it to be an opera by Puccini. I don’t want it to be a reading aloud of War And Peace by Leo Tolstoy,” Talese told HuffPost, sounding as if he were reading aloud from Green Eggs and Ham by Dr. Seuss. “I don’t want to have somebody give me their view of President Karzai. I don’t want to hear about Iraq or Hillary Clinton. Those in Hollywood who think they’re very knowing on policy may want that, but I think it’s stupid. Don’t do it on Oscar night. We’re talking about entertainment.”
The 80-year-old writer described his ideal Oscar night as a tour of Hollywood’s “fantasy factory,” with no view to the outside world. And yet, watching our favorite actors and actresses fumble through cue cards is rarely a transcendent experience. Alford, he of the expanding Harvey Weinstein head, shared an idea on how to change that: “Film all [the presenters] in advance, off-location. Hugh Jackman and Halle Berry present Best Sound, ringside from a boxing match, or from the womens’ bathroom at Grand Central; Josh Brolin and Kate Hudson present Best Special Effects from Cher’s personal day spa.” And what of the built-in somber moments? The In Memoriams? “We do not need a montage,” insisted Thelma Adams, a contribut-
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ing editor for Yahoo Movies. “Not even for the dead. That’s why God created websites.”
ROBYN BECK/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
THE SONG AND DANCE
Live musical numbers are “the worst part of the show,” according to Jack Herrguth, a developer of original programming at Comedy Central. “Forget all the dancing, forget all the singing. It’s fun to watch on the Internet or talk about the next day, but during the broadcast it’s usually pretty painful. It’s bad TV.” Herrguth suggested playing clips of the movies over each singer’s performance. (“Adele’s singing live? I couldn’t care less!” went his enactment of himself on Feb. 24, 2013.) Cutting away from musical superstars wouldn’t be the subtlest editing maneuver, but
then, playing to one’s audience isn’t always a subtle game. Another possibility: dispensing with the musical performers altogether. (God help the person assigned to give that message to Barbra Streisand, who is scheduled to sing at this year’s Academy Awards for the first time in 36 years.) Alford suggested using technology to fillip the Best Original Song category: “Reduce each Best Song down to a ringtone. Put each ringtone on a cellphone given to the composer. Reveal the Best Song winner by calling him in the audience.” Fin.
BEST PICTURES
The critics HuffPost spoke with were unanimous on this: Go back to five nominees. Everything got screwy in 2010, when the Academy, under pressure after The Dark Knight missed the ballot the year before, increased the number of
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Best Picture nominees from five to as many as ten. According to Friedman (fan of concise speeches), the result is a ballot padded with “faux” contenders that waste resources campaigning. “There are five other movies giving people parties, creating stories in the press,” he said. “A lot of money is being spent that doesn’t need to be, and a lot of time is taken up.” This year, nine nominees were chosen; the “real” five, according to AwardsDaily critic Sasha Stone, which tend to have a Best Director nod (Lincoln, Beasts Of The Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook and the ringer-with-achance, Amour), and the “faux” four (Argo, Les Misérables, Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained). Which will win? Say hello to the next favorite topic for critics to rant about. Due to a “preferential” balloting system, members rank their top five movies, and No. 1’s are prioritized, leading to “the least polarizing best picture winner every year,” complained Stone. “It rewards the movies that people feel the most strongly about,” agreed Scott Feinberg, of The Hollywood Reporter. What’s wrong with that? Well, it means a film a smallish number of Academy members go crazy for is basically a mortal
i x lock — producing results like Hurt Locker as Best Picture instead of Avatar. (Between those who believe a Best Picture should be popular and those who couldn’t be bothered how many people enjoyed it, there is a great philosophical divide.) In the old days, Stone told us, Avatar would have at least stood a chance of splitting the vote. But its low final tally of golden statues (won for art direction, cinematography and visual effects) means the blockbuster lacked the fiery Academy support a Big Picture winner needs, according to Stone. The narrative of a battle between ex-spouses (Cameron v. Bigelow!) was likely not a reflection of reality so much as the public’s wish for a tight race — a phenomenon the preferential ballot renders impossible. So, differences of opinion. But our court rests on this point: back to five, please, Academy, and ditch the new ballot. Oh, and also …
OPEN THE GATES
“I wouldn’t want to make it like American Idol, but we’re living in the age of social networking,” Herrguth said. “At Comedy Central, we’re always finding ways to make things more interactive for the audience.” How about a scaled-down reality-show format, with only a few
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THESE ACTORS ARE SO RELENTLESSLY ON-MESSAGE, IT TAKES AWAY THE THRILL OF THE OSCARS.
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categories for the general public to vote on, offered Herrguth? Best Dressed, for instance. New York Magazine film critic David Edelstein added a warning: Don’t go converting core categories. Best Picture might be tempting to turn over to a popular vote, if only you could compel people to do their homework. Who’s going to watch all nine movies? Edelstein advocated a different kind of outreach. How would he fix the Oscars? By letting everyone know they’re, well, fixed. As in rigged. Predetermined. Let the public in on the particulars: Hollywood has its own campaign season, where stumping means trotting out a pretty actress at enough parties to impress voters with how convincingly she played plain. (That’s how the little-known French actress Marion Cotillard became Oscarwinning French actress Marion Cotillard, according to Edelstein). Last year, Edelstein said, the critical community knew The Artist would win based simply on the aggressive campaigning of Harvey Weinstein, who distributed the black-and-white silent comedy in America. “Why? How did I know The Artist was going to win? How many voters are there? Four thousand? Six thousand?” (By the LA
Times’ 2012 count, 5765.) “I don’t know any voters. I didn’t canvass, and yet I knew.” Edelstein proposed a counter campaign, for public awareness. “The same way that we understand that’s how politics works, or we’re taught at an early age to be suspicious of commercials.” Not that we’d choose to strip away the show’s magic. In truth, we kvetch because we love. Even if James Franco and Anne Hathaway wind up on stage for a reunion next year with a bagful of jokes about Tumblr, it’ll be OK. It may not be the night we want, but as Talese, an Oscars-watcher since circa 1940, assured us, “We’re generally getting what we deserve.”
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ike, I think you need to check the bathroom,” the studio publicist told me. It was June of last year, and we were inside a luxury hotel room in Manhattan’s SoHo neighborhood, where Fox Searchlight was holding a press day for Beasts of the Southern Wild. The movie, made for next to nothing by a group of unknowns and first-timers, had won the jury prize at the Sundance Film Festival, and some people — not many, but some — thought it had a shot at scoring a few Oscar nominations. I had arrived on time for my scheduled
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I MENTIONED TO WALLIS THAT SHE’D BEEN DESCRIBED AS A ‘FIRECRACKER,’ SHE LAUGHED, ‘YES ... BECAUSE I’M MADE OF FI-YA!’
teased. “I’ve checked under the bed, and he’s checked in the bathroom. I wonder where she is!” I felt the need to speak again. “I want to be on the record: I did not check in the bathroom.” It was at this point that Quvenzhané Wallis, who would surprise the world on Jan. 10 when, at age 9, she became the youngest ever Best Actress nominee in Oscar history, stormed out of the closet, screaming. It seemed like as suitable a way as any to end a game of hide-and-seek. I don’t feel comfortable interviewing children one-on-one. Not because they can’t be thoughtful or interesting, but because it just doesn’t seem fair. As an adult in his 30s, I can’t imagine being asked to speak on the record before reaching my 10th birthday. When I agreed to this interview, I was told that it would be a joint conversation with Wallis and Dwight Henry, who plays her father in the film. Somehow, the plan had changed, and I was now due to speak with each actor separately. In Beasts of the Southern Wild — which scored Oscar nominations in four catego-
ries, including Best Picture and Best Director — Wallis plays Hushpuppy, daughter to a stern but loving father named Wink (Henry). The two live in a flood-prone Delta community, which is in grave danger of sinking into the Gulf of Mexico. Wallis, with no acting experience, beat out more than 4,000 other girls to win the role of Hushpuppy. “I know it’s something that you wouldn’t expect, but it happened,” she told me. The posh hotel room felt a world away from the setting of Beasts. It was the end of a long day, and I can only imagine how many interviews Wallis had endured before meeting with me. Her mother, Qulyndriea, explained that the purpose of the impromptu game of hide-and-seek was to keep Quvenzhané’s energy level high. “It made it to red! Ahhhh! Ahhhhh!” Quvenzhané was yelling into my iPhone, trying to push the bars on the voicerecording app into the red zone. When I mentioned to Wallis that she’d been described as a “firecracker,” she laughed, “yes ... because I’m made of fi-ya!” She sang the word “fire.” Her mother’s hide-
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Wallis and co-star Dwight Henry at a screening of Beasts in November 2012.
and-seek game had worked, temporarily at least. This is the routine for any prospective Oscar nominee: interview after interview after interview. And it paid off for Wallis. But while even people who haven’t seen Beasts of the Southern Wild and can’t pronounce her first name (it’s KwuhVEN-juh-nay) know about her “youngest ever” record, I wonder how many of us have spared a thought for what it’s like to go through such an experience at such a young age. Unfortunately, like a Fun Dip sugar rush, her mood soon faded. After a string of one- or two-word answers, I
finally asked if she’d been warned that there would be days like this, spent answering nonsense questions from idiots like me. “No, they never even told me that,” Quvenzhané responded. You don’t seem happy about it. “I don’t.” It’s been a long day for me, too. “I know how you feel.” Won over by her sudden show of camaraderie, I told her this interview might be my favorite thing I’d been a part of. “I know, right?” Right? “You get to meet somebody that has
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COURTESY OF MIKE RYAN
kwuh-ven-juh-nay
the same feeling that you do.” I liked that she thought we felt the same way, though I doubt that’s possible. It was obvious that all she wanted in the world was to go home. I was only one subway ride away from home, but the 4, 5, 6 train would HuffPost’s Mike Ryan not be taking Quvenzhané (right) at 8 years old, meeting Sorrell Booke of back to Louisiana. The Dukes of Hazzard. I couldn’t imagine beWallis if she was looking ing that age and having forward to going home. to be “on” for one nosy “Uh huh,” she said. “I adult after another. When I was 8 years want to ride my bike again. I miss my old, an actor named Sorrell Booke — bike and my dog. And my house. And best known for playing Jefferson Davis my friends. And everybody next to my “Boss” Hogg on The Dukes of Hazzard neighborhood.” Oh, and she missed — made a public appearance at a rodeo food. Well, good food, at least. in mid-Missouri. My parents thought I “As soon as I get home, all I want to eat would enjoy meeting Mr. Booke because is seafood,” she said. I enjoyed watching The Dukes of HazYou don’t like the seafood you’ve eaten zard. For whatever reason, I just wasn’t while traveling? having it. The likeliest reason was that I “No.” was 8 years old. All my parents wanted Why not? was for me to smile. I refused. The re“Because it’s not even seafood. It’s sult is pictured above. shrimp.” My parents wanted me to be “on” for Qulyndriea explained that her daughone person, not many people. Instead, I ter likes her food spicy. I pointed out that made that face. I saw a similar expreseven shrimp that isn’t spicy is still techsion on Quvenzhané Wallis’ face, only nically seafood. “But it’s not good,” Walshe had a much better excuse. I asked lis insisted. Her mother said they’d eaten
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Wallis as “Hushpuppy” on the set of Beasts of the Southern Wild.
some good fried seafood, but Quvenzhané would not budge. “It’s not food,” she said. “It’s rubber.” “Here in New York?,” I asked. “Or in Los Angeles?” “Everywhere,” she replied. “All the food is rubber?” “Yes.” The conversation turned to awards season. More specifically, how busy she would be if Beasts of the Southern Wild became a contender. I mentioned that she’d probably have to go through all of this again if she were nominated for an Oscar. She acknowledged that possibility, then, heeding her mother’s warning that we were running out of time, told me that the next question would be my last.
Funny thing: Most actors won’t admit to wanting an award. If you ask them whether they think they’ll be nominated, most actors will wince — actors are a superstitious lot — and offer a few innocuous words about how privileged they feel to have worked with this or that director or costar. But most actors aren’t 8 years old. When I asked Quvenzhané Wallis if she wanted to win an acting award, without hesitation she replied, “Yes.” And before I could even think about sneaking in a follow-up question, she added, “That was the last question.” Maybe Quvenzhané is already a pro. Or maybe she just wanted to play hide-and-seek again.
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THE GOLD RUSH
in which we non-mathematically predict this year’s big winners by michael hogan and christopher rosen
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Ben Affleck as CIA officer Tony Mendez on the set of Argo.
FTER MONTHS of speculation and endless rounds of red-carpet foreplay, it’s almost time to hand out a new set of naked metal guys at the 85th annual Academy Awards. Will Ben Affleck’s Argo manage to sneak a Best Picture envelope past customs? Can anyone challenge Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway? Will Jennifer Lawrence pull a Sharpie out of her decol-
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letage, sign her statuette and hand it over to a fan, Terrell Owens-style? We’ll find out for sure on Feb. 24, when ABC broadcasts the Oscars live from the Dolby Theatre, in Los Angeles. Until then, all we can do is bet money on the outcome. So before you fill out your Oscar pool, check out our picks below. We’ve spent far too much time and energy thinking about this, so you might as well reap the benefits.
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best picture
HOGAN’S PICK: ARGO I’ll admit it: I’ve been gunning for Lincoln ever since the movie opened, and I thought its league-leading 12 nominations meant certain victory. But Argo has absolutely torn up the precursor awards, winning Best Picture equivalents at the Golden Globes, the PGAs and the SAGs, to name just a few. I don’t know if people are pissed that Affleck got snubbed for Best Director or if they just really, really like the movie (its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 97%), but I have a feeling they’ll be partying in the embassy on Oscar night.
ROSEN’S PICK: ARGO It’s always dangerous to put too much stock in the Oscar precursors, but the momentum that Argo has at the moment feels like a legitimate movement. But should we even be surprised? Argo was always the mainstream movie that everyone could agree on — it’s not “boring,” like Lincoln; it’s not controversial, like Zero Dark Thirty; it’s not a comedy, like Silver Linings Playbook. The only bump in its road to Best Picture was Affleck’s unforgivable Best Director
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snub. That’s the anomaly here. To oneup your hack Argo reference: Lincoln is stuck at the gate. best director
HOGAN’S PICK: STEVEN SPIELBERG, LINCOLN
I always thought Affleck was going to win this category — until he got snubbed, along with Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper. You might almost say it was an honor not to be nominated for Best Director this year. Still, I think Spielberg deserves credit for (a) hiring Tony Kushner, (b) casting Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, Tommy Lee Jones I DON’T KNOW and the rest of the amazing IF PEOPLE cast and (c) making a movARE PISSED ie that earned 12 freaking THAT AFFLECK nominations.
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GOT SNUBBED FOR BEST DIRECTOR OR IF THEY JUST REALLY, REALLY LIKE THE MOVIE … BUT I HAVE A FEELING THEY’LL BE PARTYING IN THE EMBASSY ON OSCAR NIGHT.
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ROSEN’S PICK: MICHAEL HANEKE, AMOUR Record scratch! This pick is straight-up insane, and I have nothing to base it on except this: Amour had a surprisingly strong showing with the Academy for a foreign film, earning an almost unheard-of five nominations, including Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay. The support for
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Amour runs deeper than we might assume. Which means, in a weak category that managed to ignore Affleck, Bigelow and Tarantino, Michael Haneke could sneak in and steal the trophy. Your pick of Spielberg obviously makes sense — as would Ang Lee — but both of those guys are boring. More important, they’ve won and they’ll be here again. Who’s to say when Haneke will have another shot? best actress
HOGAN’S PICK: JENNIFER LAWRENCE, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK I held out for so long. I picked Jessica Chastain before even seeing Zero Dark
Clockwise: Daniel Day Lewis in Lincoln, Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables, Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook, Steven Spielberg and Michael Haneke.
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Thirty. Then, when I saw it and realized Chastain doesn’t do anything but glower for three hours (it’s exquisite glowering, I should add), I changed my vote to Quvenzhané Wallis of Beasts of the Southern Wild. But J-Law won a Globe and the SAG, and I think she’s dancing all the way to the Dolby podium. Who’s cutting the gif of Naomi Watts’ B-face?
ROSEN’S PICK: JENNIFER LAWRENCE, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK Here’s what Grantland’s Zach Baron wrote about Jennifer Lawrence: “She is Godzilla stomping a building, she is a Just Blaze beat, she is all the natural di-
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100
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62.9%
95.1% LINCOLN
argo vs. lincoln Since its Golden Globe win, Argo’s Best Picture
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chances have shot past front-runner Lincoln.
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SOURCE: HUFFPOST OSCARS DASHBOARD
1.3% ARGO
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36%
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sasters at once.” What he said. Chastain didn’t stand a chance. best actor
HOGAN’S PICK: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, LINCOLN Is the sky blue? Is the Earth round? Does Harvey Weinstein keep a voodoo doll of Daniel Day-Lewis in his desk drawer, right next to the Fruitvale marketing deck? Will DDL win anyway? Yes, yes, yes and yes. A thousand times yes! Next category!
ROSEN’S PICK: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, LINCOLN Four score and seven years ago, we all picked Daniel Day-Lewis to win Best Actor. Today, we still are. best supporting actress
HOGAN’S PICK: ANNE HATHAWAY, LES MISÉRABLES I get why people hate on Anne Hathaway — it might be a little too obvious how badly she wants this Oscar. But I,
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for one, respect the fact that she’s in it to win it and actually cares about this whole ridiculous carnival that I’ve spent a sizable portion of the past six months thinking and writing about. Sure, she’s being rewarded for a single musical number — but what a number! And what else are you going to do? Give Sally Field her third Oscar?
ROSEN’S PICK: ANNE HATHAWAY, LES MISÉRABLES Perhaps we’re not giving enough credit to Hathaway: In an iffy year for supporting actresses — where two nominated actresses, Helen Hunt and Amy Adams, arguably gave lead performances — Hathaway has been the front-runner since August. That she lived up to all that advance hype is a minor miracle. She deserves this award more than every other actress in this category combined.
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HOGAN’S PICK: TOMMY LEE JONES, LINCOLN
ROSEN’S PICK: ROBERT DE NIRO, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
He’s cranky in the movie. He’s cranky at the awards shows. At least he doesn’t wear a ridiculous wigat the awards shows. And he’s already got an Oscar — but so does everybody else in this category. At the end of the day, though, Tommy Lee Jones gives a soulful performance as Thaddeus Stevens, a wily old abolitionist who puts his ideals on the back burner for the greater good. I say give him the damn trophy so he can go home and take a nap.
Best Supporting Actor is the one acting category still relatively up for grabs; you could make an argument for any of the five actors winning here. My argument goes for De Niro, who gives his best performance in a decade in Silver Linings Playbook and hasn’t won an Oscar since 1981. (Paging Meryl Streep ... ) He’s not necessarily due, but rewarding De Niro, at the very least, might keep him from co-starring with 50 Cent in another movie. (A boy can dream.)
best supporting actor
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REMEMBER THAT TIME ROBERT DE NIRO WON AN OSCAR, 32 YEARS AGO? by mike ryan
CULTURE
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OBERT DE NIRO is widely regarded as one of the best actors of his generation, so it may surprise you to learn how long he went without making a truly great movie. (Sure, we all laughed at Meet the Parents back in 2000, but Meet the Parents is no The Deer Hunter.) The Oscar nomination De Niro earned with his supporting role in last year’s Silver Linings Playbook is his first since
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1991, when he played that crazy guy who clings to the bottom of Nick Nolte’s car in Cape Fear. And he hasn’t won an Academy Award since 1981, when he portrayed the tormented boxer Jake LaMotta in Raging Bull. If you want an idea of how long ago that was, here is a video of a young De Niro accepting his award from Sally Field. If you want a few more ideas, keep reading.
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the 84 years of history between argo and gold
EN AFFLECK’S Argo may have won Best Motion Picture for a Drama at the Golden Globes, but the film could have a difficult time repeating the victory come the Oscars. That’s because
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Affleck was snubbed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences in the Best Director category, putting 84 years of Oscar history between his film and the gold statuette. Since the first Academy Awards ceremony
by christopher rosen
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JOHN D. KISCH/SEPARATE CINEMA ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES
Morgan Freeman, Jessica Tandy and Dan Aykroyd in Driving Miss Daisy, which won Best Picture in 1990.
in 1929, only three films have won Best Picture without a corresponding nomination for Best Director: Wings, which earned the equivalent of Best Picture at the first Oscar ceremony in 1929, Grand Hotel and Driving Miss Daisy. About those films: When Wings won Best Picture the category was called Outstanding Picture, and only two other films received nominations (The Racket and Seventh Heaven). There were also two Best Director categories
at the first Oscars (Best Director, Comedy Picture and Best Director, Dramatic Picture). In the end, the only film honored with nominations for both Best Director and Outstanding Picture was Seventh Heaven. At the 1932 ceremony, Outstanding Picture became Outstanding Production and winner Grand Hotel was among eight films nominated in the category. There were only three Best Director nominees total, however, making Grand Hotel director Edmund Goulding’s snub
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somewhat more understandable; though Oscar history shows that Best Edwhether he would have been nominated iting is usually a good indicator of a if the Best Director category included film’s Best Picture bona fides; the last five names is unknown. (Oscar voting is time a movie won Best Picture withan infamously private endeavor.) out being nominated for Best Editing That leaves Driving Miss Daisy as was 1980’s Ordinary People. Well, not the only modern-era film to win Best only was Argo nominated for Best EditPicture without a Best Director nomiing, it could win the award: According nation. The 1989 movie received nine to the Academy Awards prognosticanominations at the 62nd annual Acadtion site GoldDerby.com, Argo has the emy Awards, the highest best chance of winning total of any film nominatBest Editing on Feb. 24, ed that year, but none for with 19/10 odds. Zero OSCAR director Bruce Beresford. Dark Thirty, meanwhile, The 1990 ceremony was received a nomination for HISTORY somewhat bizarre: Of the Best Editing as well, and SHOWS THAT five films nominated for ranks just behind Argo in BEST EDITING Best Picture, only three the category, according to IS USUALLY received correspondGoldDerby.com. Of course A GOOD ing Best Director noms that doesn’t mean Argo INDICATOR — Born on the Fourth of will win Best Picture over OF A FILM’S July and Oliver Stone, Lincoln: The last two films who won the award; Dead to win Best Editing at the BEST PICTURE Poets Society and Peter Oscars were The Girl With BONA FIDES; Weir; and My Left Foot the Dragon Tattoo and The THE LAST TIME and Jim Sheridan. Social Network, and neiA MOVIE WON Which means, based ther triumphed in the Best BEST PICTURE on history, films like Argo Picture category. WITHOUT and Zero Dark Thirty There’s another, less BEING (which saw its director, analytical reason that — of Kathryn Bigelow, snubbed the two films with maNOMINATED by the Academy Awards jor Best Director snubs FOR BEST as well) face quite the — Argo could triumph: EDITING obstacles on the road to the actors branch. Of the ’S WAS 1980 winning Best Picture. Yet, 5,784 members of the AMORDINARY there’s still some hope. PAS, roughly 1,172 are in
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PEOPLE.
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The production crew on the set of Zero Dark Thirty, shot in Manimajra, in the Chandigarh territory in India.
the actors branch, a group made up of famous faces like Warren Beatty, Jennifer Lawrence and even Beyonce. That means Argo could have a leg-up on the competition given its behind-the-scenes team: In addition to Ben Affleck, the film was produced by George Clooney, the unofficial king of Hollywood. If Argo gets a wave of support from the actors branch, it could wind up with the necessary first, second and third place votes to defeat Lincoln. (With Best Picture being voted on with
a preferential ballot, a film that receives a lot of second place votes could wind up winning.) So, could Argo or Zero Dark Thirty win Best Picture? Films like Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi — the only Best Picture nominees with both Best Director and Best Editing nods — are clearly in better historical position, but it would be foolish to discount either film, even if the AMPAS already discounted Affleck and Bigelow.
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—bret easton ellis
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the cia was a junior partner.
seth macfarlane — former canadian drops a hitler ambassador on argo’s joke, before the inaccuracies show even starts
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the oscars are ‘the stupidest thing in the whole world.’ — joaquin phoenix
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samuel l. jackson was robbed
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JASON MERRITT/GETTY IMAGES (BIGELOW); ULF ANDERSEN/GETTY IMAGES (ELLIS); JB LACROIX/WIREIMAGE/GETTY IMAGES (JACKSON); AP PHOTO/ CLIFF OWEN (TAYLOR); CHRIS PIZZELLO/INVISION/AP PHOTO (MACFARLANE); VERA ANDERSON/WIREIMAGE/GETTY IMAGES (PHOENIX)
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kathryn bigelow is ‘overrated’ because she’s a ‘hot woman.’
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people kissing the backsides of famous producers makes me want to throw up.
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—anthony hopkins
when jamie foxx came out against violence in schools,‘i thought, that’s total oscar bullshit.’ —walter kirn
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TIM BOYLE/GETTY IMAGES (OSCARS; MIKE MARSLAND/WIREIMAGE/GETTY IMAGES (HOPKINS); JEFF VESPA/WIREIMAGE/ GETTY IMAGES (HATHAWAY); KEVIN WINTER/GETTY IMAGES (KIRN);; ASTRID STAWIARZ/GETTY IMAGES (FOX AND FRIENDS)
e-voting could deter academy members from voting
the wrath of the hathahaters
fox and friends think the oscars hate america
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85th annual academy award nominees BEST PICTURE
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST FILM EDITING
n n n n n n n n n
n n n n n
n n n n n
Zero Dark Thirty Silver Linings Playbook Lincoln Les Miserables Life of Pi Amour Django Unchained Argo Beasts of the Southern Wild
BEST ACTRESS
n Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty n Naomi Watts for The Impossible n Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook n Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild n Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
BEST ACTOR
BEST MAKEUP
n n n n n
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Frankenweenie The Pirates! Band of Misfits Wreck-It Ralph Paranorman Brave
BEST FOREIGN FEATURE n n n n n
Amour A Royal Affair Kon-Tiki No War Witch
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
n Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln n Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master n Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained n Alan Arkin for Argo n Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
BEST DIRECTOR
n Ang Lee for Life of Pi n Steven Spielberg for Lincoln n David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook n Michael Haneke for Amour n Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY n n n n n
Lincoln Silver Linings Playbook Argo Life of Pi Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln Silver Linings Playbook Life of Pi Argo Zero Dark Thirty
BEST ANIMATED FILM
n Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln n Denzel Washington for Flight n Joaquin Phoenix for The Master n Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables n Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook n Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables n Sally Field for Lincoln n Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook n Helen Hunt for The Sessions n Amy Adams for The Master
JAMIE MCCARTHY/WIREIMAGE/GETTY IMAGES
Zero Dark Thirty Django Unchained Moonrise Kingdom Amour Flight
n n n n n n n n n n
Life of Pi The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey The Avengers Prometheus Snow White and the Huntsman Skyfall Anna Karenina Django Unchained Life of Pi Lincoln
BEST COSTUME DESIGN n n n n n
Anna Karenina Les Miserables Lincoln Mirror Mirror Snow White and the Huntsman
BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE) n n n n n
Searching for Sugar Man How to Survive a Plague The Gatekeepers 5 Broken Cameras The Invisible War
BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT) n n n n n
Open Heart Inocente Redemption Kings Point Mondays at Racine
n The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey n Les Miserables n Hitchcock n n n n n
Mychael Danna for Life of Pi Alexandre Desplat for Argo Dario Marianelli for Anna Karenina John Williams for Lincoln Thomas Newman for Skyfall
BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
n “Before My Time” from Chasing Ice n “Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted n “Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi n “Suddenly” from Les Misérables n “Skyfall” from Skyfall
BEST SOUND EDITING n n n n n
Argo Django Unchained Life of Pi Skyfall Zero Dark Thirty
BEST SOUND MIXING n n n n n
Argo Les Miserables Life of Pi Skyfall Lincoln
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) n n n n n
Curfew Death of a Shadow Henry Buzkashi Boys Asad
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
n Head Over Heels n Fresh Guacamole n Paperman n Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare n Adam and Dog
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