The Next Half Billion are Disproportionately Impacted by Climate Change

The Next Half Billion, or the NHB, are core to our work at ONI. They constitute the 500 million first-time internet users that have come online via their mobile phones in the five years between 2018 and 2022, and represent the second big wave of internet users in India. The NHB are mainly from the bottom 60% of India’s income distribution, and their fortunes will define India’s trajectory of growth, well-being, and prosperity in the decades to come.

While developing countries are more fragile and vulnerable to climate change, a disproportionate impact is felt by the NHB:

~170 million low-middle income Indians reside within 50 km of the coast1. With rising sea levels, over 35 million people face risk of displacement annually.

60% of Indian farming is still rainfed, leading to over ~260 million farmers being dependent on monsoons for irrigation.3 As monsoon patterns get disrupted, income and livelihoods of these farmers are at risk.

The Indo-Gangetic plain is one of the world’s most densely populated areas (~ 00 million). As the Himalayan glaciers melt, the lives and food security of these people are at risk with climate change induced severe flooding and extreme droughts.

India recorded extreme weather events on 2 1 of the 273 days tracked in 2022. 5 Lower income populations are at climate risk twice over – not only do they account for the most casualties when climatic disasters strike, they also suffer income losses due to increased heatwaves, droughts, flooding, air pollution, and other extreme weather events.