Policy Briefs
Sustainable Development Scenarios for Papua Province 1 No. 10 - 2009
Objective This note summarizes the results of a larger study to assess the economic, social and environmental consequences of different development scenarios for Papua province as an input to the spatial planning process. The analysis focused on key development themes (transportation, mining, forestry) and the Mamberamo basin, assessing a businessas-usual and a sustainable development scenario.
Key Sustainability Challenges Papua is a paradox of underdevelopment. It is the second richest province in fiscal terms but a lack of infrastructure, limited government capacity and inadequate health and education services contribute to endemic poverty and poor human development indicators throughout the province. At the same time, there is intense competition by a range of stakeholders competing for control over Papua’s rich natural resources and, in particular, its mineral wealth.
Economically, Papua has had very high economic growth rates (10% annually between 2001-2005), mostly as a result of mining. However, the mining industry is highly capital intensive and employs less than 1% of the workforce. Most employment is generated by labor-intensive agriculture that is characterized by traditional farming systems supplemented by hunting and gathering. !BOUT OF 0APUA IS STILL COVERED WITH INTACT FORESTS To date, deforestation rates have been minimal compared with other forest-rich islands such as Kalimantan and Sumatra. This is fortunate because the forest, freshwater and marine natural endowments of the provinces are of global biodiversity value.
The transport sector is a key challenge in a province that is so large, with a population so scattered and facing major physical obstacles in the form of mountain ranges and rivers. There are very few roads and those that exist are POORLY MAINTAINED 7ATER TRANSPORT SEA AND RIVER IS important but requires better handling facilities. Air transport is widespread but expensive, connecting -OST OF 0APUA S MILLION PEOPLE LIVE ALONG THE COAST a large network of very basic airstrips. The province exhibits a much greater diversity of ethnicities and cultures than elsewhere in Indonesia, with about 250 languages spoken. Although sparsely populated, most of Assessing the Options the cultural diversity is found inland, in the highland areas. In 2007, the Papua provincial government requested ASSISTANCE FROM THE 7ORLD "ANK FOR SPATIAL PLANNING
The response came in the form of an economic, social and environmental assessment of different development scenarios. Options were developed for key sectors (transport, mining and forestry) as well as the critical Mamberamo basin which is the largest unroaded forest in the Asia-Pacific region. This involved the following steps: s !N ANALYSIS OF OVER DIFFERENT STAKEHOLDER GROUPS s !N IDENTIFICATION OF KEY DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND economic, social and environmental priorities s ! BASELINE ASSESSMENT USING AVAILABLE INFORMATION including preparation of a spatial atlas s 2EVIEW OF THE DRAFT SPATIAL PLAN TO FORMULATE A business-as-usual scenario s )DENTIFICATION OF ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS AND FORMULATION of a sustainable development scenario s !SSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL consequences of each scenario Results were discussed at several stakeholder meetings and are being used to prepare revised spatial planning legislation with support from USAID’s Environmental Services Program. The initiative also involved capacity building for Bappeda with training in GIS and scenario building.
s %XPANDING AND IMPROVING AIR RIVER AND SEA TRANSPORT options that had less adverse impact on the environment; s -INIMIZING ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF several large-scale mines; s 3CALING BACK LARGE SCALE LOGGING AND REPLACING IT WITH community-based forestry; and s $EVELOPING CULTURALLY APPROPRIATE GROWTH IN THE Mamberamo region that does not threaten forests. Each scenario was the evaluated in terms of its contribution to economic development, consequences for social groups and environmental impact. The analysis indicated that the business-as-usual scenario would result in unequal economic development, a range of social problems (marginalization of indigenous people and lost access to forests and their resources), and environmental harm from large-scale deforestation and mining. This is because the option focused on promoting economic development through extensive exploitation of Papua’s natural resources and major road development that supported forestry and the mining industry while diverting funds away from basic development investments.
The sustainable development scenario provided a greater opportunity for the people of Papua to potentially benefit from: appropriate transport services that provide poor, isolated people with access to health and education; the value of carbon stored in forests as well as other forest goods and services; well-managed mines that generate substantial revenue, health and education, and other infrastructure for local communities and governments; and protection of a globally-recognized lowland forest that conserves biodiversity, stores carbon and attracts eco-tourists. The significant difference in economic benefits is due to the fact that the sustainable scenario preserves forests that provide important benefits to society Assessment of Scenarios (clean water, carbon sinks, biodiversity) and because of the lower overall cost of the scenario. 7HILE THE BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO IS A CONTINUATION of existing development policies, the sustainable development option was built around:
Impact Area
Business-as-Usual
Sustainable Development
Economic
s '$20 s 0ER CAPITA INCOME
Social
s )NCREASED MIGRATION s ,OWER MIGRATION from highlands to rate with higher coast service provision s )NCREASED s 2EDUCED marginalization of incidence of HIV, interior prostitution & communities alcoholism s 3OCIAL BENEFIT OF s 3OCIAL BENEFIT OF around $300 per AROUND PER capita capita
s '$20 s 0ER CAPITA INCOME
Environmental s /NLY - HA OF s - HA OF FOREST forest by 2020 by 2020 s )NDIRECT FOREST VALUE s )NDIRECT FOREST of $500M by 2020 VALUE OF - by 2020
Next Steps The assessment is an input to a lengthier process of enhancing development planning and implementation in Papua. As such, the analysis recommended the following next steps: s &OLLOW UP ON THE ASSESSMENT WITH A MULTI STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP THE WORKSHOP WAS HELD ON .OVEMBER IN *AYAPURA WITH CO SPONSORSHIP BY "APPEDA and USAID); s #ONDUCT A SIMILAR ASSESSMENT FOR 7EST 0APUA Much of the mapping for this assessment also includes 7EST 0APUA AND THE LIKELY FOCUS WOULD BE ON management of forestry, marine resources and mining; s 0ROVIDE ASSISTANCE FOR SPATIAL PLANNING USING THE assessment as a point of departure (this work began IN .OVEMBER WITH THE INCLUSION OF A NEW component in USAID’s Environmental Services Project that is designed to formulate new spatial planning legislation with the province);
s %NGAGE DISTRICT GOVERNMENTS IN THE SPATIAL PLANNING process, especially those that face capacity constraints and limited ability to generate income because of land use regulations; s 0ROVIDE TRAINING FOR SPATIAL PLANNING REMOTE SENSING geographic information systems, and community mapping to enable Papuan stakeholders to conduct their own analysis and make more informed decisions; and s &ORMULATE IMPROVED MONITORING AND EVALUATION TO track the implementation of selected spatial planning options. The preparation of a new provincial spatial plan is a major task that will require a review of existing plans, policies and regulations, improved data collection, consultations, refinement of scenarios, and elaboration of the detailed plan itself. It is likely that this process will require: a) identification of new spatial categories such as community forests, customary lands and spiritual sites; b) review of large-scale logging concessions; and c) review of location permits already issued to oil palm companies. For More Information “Strategic Assessment for Spatial Planning in Papua�, Report prepared by Sekala, PCSSF and Nordic Consulting Group FOR 7ORLD "ANK 4HE FULL REPORT CAN BE OBTAINED AT )$)3 7ORLD "ANK *AKARTA HTTP GO WORLDBANK ORG )) /0 ) This Policy Brief is available for download at: www.dsfindonesia.org 1 This Policy Brief is based on work done with Bappeda and consulting services from Sekala, 0#33& AND THE .ORDIC #ONSULTING 'ROUP WITH A GRANT FROM THE 7ORLD "ANK S 3TRATEGIC Environmental Assessment program for East Asia and the Pacific.
Supported by Papuan Civil Society Strengthening Foundation (PCSSF)
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