Unconventional Crude Oil Selection and Compatibility Scott Sayles and Mark Routt KBC Advanced Technologies, Inc. Houston, TX
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION Š 2012 KBC Advanced Technologies plc. All Rights Reserved.
May 2012
Summary • Crude selection and compatibility are critical to profitable refining operations • Conventional and unconventional crude qualities are changing • Mixtures of crudes can increase profitability can foul equipment or underperform financially • Tools are available that predict crude compatibility and performance of unconventional crudes and crude mixtures in a specific refinery
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
2
Canada & Venezuela • Largest two non-OPEC and OPEC sources of unconventional crudes Both are proximate to the US Canadian production dramatically growing; +2 million b/d in both upgraded and nonupgraded Canadian output by 2020 Venezuelan production is declining
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
3
Conceptual Unconventional Oil Upgrader Production/Utilities Heavy Naphtha
Processing Units
Output
Natural Gas Boilers
Water
Steam
Steam Methane Reformer OR Gasifier
WTI
100%
Hydrogen
90% SAGD Production
Condensate
Crude and Vacuum Distillation, Hydrogen Addition Carbon Rejection
Syncrude SCO
80% 70% 60%
Synbit
50%
Cokerbit
40%
Blender
30% 10‐25%
Dilbit
Blender
10%
90‐75%
Bitumen
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
20% 0% Syncrude Transport Diluent Upgrading Investment Production Cost
Opportunity Price Advantages Can Fluctuate Significantly Crude Baskets
$16.00
Peak Opportunity Crude Advantage in Late 2007
$14.00 $12.00
Base Crude • Arabian Heavy • Arabian Light • Forcados
$10.00
Opportunity Cr. • WCS • Maya • Marlim
$/B
$8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00
Drops to a $1.50/B Disadvantage in Early 2009
$2.00 $4.00 Jan‐07
May‐07
Sep‐07
Jan‐08
May‐08
Sep‐08
Jan‐09
May‐09
Sep‐09
Jan‐10
May‐10
Opportunity Crude Basket Price Differential Varies over $15/B in <3 years! 5 PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
KBC Understands the Upgrader Value 120
Crude Name Dated Brent Arab Extra Light (US) Arab Light (US) Arab Medium (US) Kuwait 31 Forcados 28 Oriente Arabian Heavy (US) Ras Burdan Maya (US) Olmeca Eugene Island Flotta Mesa 30
100
Predicted $/bbl
80
60
Crude Prices Actual vs. Predicted API S wt% 2000 ‐ 2010 38.90 37.20 33.10 31.50 31.00 28.80 28.70 27.90 25.10 21.80 39.50 34.30 37.70 30.10
0.42 1.38 1.86 2.48 2.49 0.20 1.00 2.89 2.41 3.34 0.75 0.82 1.00 1.04
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
40
2007 2008 2009
20
2010 API
S wt%
1020+ 1020+ Concarbon, 1020+ (Ni + 690/1020 VGO-Total TAN mg 1020+ lv% KOH/g Asphaltenes, wt% wt% V), wppm VGO lv% N2, ppm
‐ ‐
20
40
60 Actual $/bbl
80
100
120
Source: KBC Energy Economics
Crude market prices can be correlated to quality characteristics
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
Canadian Heavy Oil Production 5,000 Condensate (C5+) 4,500
non‐upgraded bitumen SCO From Upgraders
4,000 Conventional Crude 3,500
000's b/d
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 ‐ 1998 May 2012
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020 7
Canadian Upgraded Oil Quality Description
Units
Bitumen
SCO
DilBit
SynBIt
CokerBit
SAGD1
SAGD
SAGD
SAGD
SAGD
0
0
30
50
50
9
31.8
22.1
24.9
26.8
C
84.1
88.9
84.5
86.2
86.0
H
10.0
10.5
10.9
10.2
10.3
S
4.6
0.5
3.6
2.8
3.0
N
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
Ni
60
0
47
34
24
V
170
0
119
97
68
Other
300
0
236
171
120
0.8
0
0.6
0.5
0.3
Very High
N/A
High
High
High
Production Method Percent Diluent in Blend
V%
API Dry Elemental Analysis:
Metals:
ppm
Oxygen
W%
TAN
1
W%
•
BITUMEN: Athabasca tar sands oil
•
SYNTHETIC CRUDE OIL (or SCO): a low sulfur zero bottoms product
•
DILBIT: Bitumen diluted with approximately 25-30 percent condensate
•
SYNTHTEIC BITUMEN (SyntheticBit): Typically 50 percent synthetic crude used as the bitumen diluent
•
COKER BITUMEN (CokerBit): Coker distillates as the bitumen diluent
SAGD – Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
Canadian Upgraders â&#x20AC;˘ Existing and planned upgrader capacity is:
Operator, Owners
Year of Crude last Production, increase kbpd
Status
Type
CNRL
Operational
Mine
2008
135
Husky
Operational
Heavy Oil
2010
59
Nexen, OPTI
Operational
SAGD
2009
59
Shell
Operational
Mine
2011
290
Suncor
Operational
Mine
2008
350
kbpd
Syncrude
Operational
Mine
2006
466
NorthWest
Planned
ADOE Blend
2014
77
1,358 Planned
Suncor/Total Voyager
Planned
Mine
2016
218
kbpd
MEG
Planned
SAGD
2020
50 1,703
345
Total
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
Operational
9
Venezuelan Heavy Oil Production 3,500
3,250
3,000
000's b/d
2,750
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
Orimulsion Orinoco Onshore
Source: IEA and KBC Energy Economics
1,500 Jan‐98 Jan‐99 Jan‐00 Jan‐01 Jan‐02 Jan‐03 Jan‐04 Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Venezuelan Upgraded Oil Quality SCO
Naphtha
DILORIN1
Upgrader
Returned as Diluent Feed
Feed to Upgrader
0
0
0
30
8.5
32.2
59.7
20.8
C
86.0
87.4
86.0
86.0
H
9.0
12.5
14.0
10.5
S
3.8
0.1
0.01
2.7
N
0.6
0.03
0.0002
0.4
Ni
89
0
62
V
414
0
290
0.5
0
Description
Units
Orinoco
Production Method
Percent Diluent in Blend
V%
API Dry Elemental Analysis:
Metals:
Oxygen
1
W%
ppm
W%
Diluted Orinoco Bitumen
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
0.6
0.4
Venezuelan Experience - Upgraders • Retained by CORPOVEN to evaluate Upgrader Options
Flexicoking Flexicoking and Ebullating Bed Hydroconversion Combos Delayed Coking
• Coordinated Licensor visits to sites with operating Units • Developed process estimates, ITB’s, and economics for cases evaluation
LP Model construction assistance
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Venezuelan Heavy Oil Upgraders
Operator, Owners
Crude Year of last Production, increase kbpd
Status
Type
Petrozuata (Petroanzoategui)
Operational
Heavy Oil
1998
112
Cerro Negro (Petromonagas)
Operational
Heavy Oil
1999
106
Sincor (Petrocedeno)
Operational
Heavy Oil
2000
160
Hamaca (Petropiar)
Operational
Heavy Oil
2001
180
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Upgraded Crude Quality
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Contaminants In Unconventional Crude METALS
SOURCE
CONCERNS
Nickel, Vanadium
In asphaltenes
Natural organics
Catalyst poison
Iron
Iron oxides
Corrosion products, sulphides
Catalyst poison, Foulant
Arsenic
As organics
Natural organics
Catalyst poison
Natural organics Pigging gel Acidizing gel
Catalyst poison
Phosphorous Titanium
With bitumen solids
Naturally occurring
Catalyst poison
Alkaline metals
Ca, Mg, Na
Naturally occurring
Catalyst poison, Foulant
Calcium sterate
Flow improver
Crude fouling
Mercury
Naturally occurring
Catalyst poison
Defoamer
Catalyst poison
Naturally occurring
Environmental
Silicon Selenium
May 2012
Polydimethlysiloxane
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Metals Distribution; Nickel Number of Conventional and Unconventional Crudes Containing Nickel 1000
100
Unconventional crudes
10
1 1
2
Low
3
4
5
Nickel Level, wppm
6
7
8
9
High
,
DATA: Metals Distribution Summary: Nickel
Increasing Nickel Content
1,000.0
100.0 Ni, wppm
Number of Crudes
Conventional crudes
Unconventional
10.0
Conventional
1.0
0.1 Cutpoint Temperature 650Increasing 750 850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
Cutpoint Temperature, F Ni, high Conventional,Average Ni, low Conventional, Unconventional Ni, low
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
Unconventional Ni, high
16
Metals Distribution; Vanadium Number of Conventional and Unconventional Crudes Containing Vanadium 1000
100
Unconventional crudes
10
1 1
2
Low
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
High
Vanadium Level, wppm
,
DATA: Metals Distribution Summary: Vanadium
Increasing Vandium Content
1,000.0
100.0
V, wppm
Number of Crudes
Conventional Crudes
Unconventional
10.0
1.0 Conventional 0.1 Temperature 650Increasing Cutpoint 750 850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
Average Cutpoint Temperature, F Conventional, V, low
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
Conventional, V, high
Unconventional V, low
Unconventional V, high
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Quality Concerns PROPERTY
COMMENT
IMPACT
API
As the crude gravity approaches that of water, diluent is needed to separate out water from hydrocarbon
Water/Oil Separation
Sulfur
High sulfur levels require H2 and produce more H2S
Corrosion
Nitrogen
High nitrogen levels require H2 and produce more NH3
Corrosion
Metals Ni/V/Fe
High catalyst replacement cycle
Catalyst deactivation
Metals Na/Ca/As/Ti
Alkaline metals require special guard bed catalysts
Corrosion/Catalyst deactivation
Asphaltenes
Increases potential for fouling that requires shutdowns to resolve
Fouling
Naphthenic Acids
High levels cause corrosion
Corrosion/fouling
Chlorides
Typically associated with alkaline metals
Corrosion
Viscosity
If too high to pump, requires diluents or redesign
High transportation costs
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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First Level of Protection: Crude Evaluation • Review supplier’s crude assay Balances are verified Data reconciliation between cut testing and whole crude
• Determine deficiencies and corrective action • Prepare whole crude assay file from cut data using reconciled data and modeling tool • Evaluate processing potential of crude using a heat and material balanced model • Determine the crude compatibility and requirements for tankage using realistic crude blends
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Crude Economics and Implementation • Estimate incremental variable operating costs for the new crude • Update non-linear refinery LP items • Use updated crude evaluation data from the supplier to update the simulations • Process Safety Management (PSM) preliminary Management Of Change (MOC) • Prepare high-level action list of mechanical and process modifications • If the crude has potential, request a representative sample for independent quality analysis May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Crude Compatibility • Crudes are considered incompatible if the blends result in a sludge or solids production • Laboratory methods vary, results are seen in the field • KBC Methodology uses physical properties to predict compatibility • Builds upon the KBC visbreaking technology • Allows calculation of the potential that two crudes are incompatible • “Titrates” the crude from 0 to 100% of another crude blend
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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KBC Methodology Crude Mixture Compatibility
Crude A
% of Crude A in Blend ===>
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
<=== % of Crude B in Blend
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.9
4.0
Crude B1
4.0 1.7 16.7 10.0 1.8 11.7
3.9 1.8 8.7 9.4 1.8 10.8
3.9 1.8 6.3 8.9 1.9 10.1
3.9 1.9 5.3 8.4 2.0 9.4
3.9 2.0 4.6 8.0 2.1 8.8
3.9 2.1 4.3 7.6 2.2 8.3
3.9 2.2 4.0 7.2 2.3 7.8
3.9 2.3 3.8 6.9 2.4 7.4
3.9 2.4 3.7 6.6 2.5 7.0
3.9 2.5 3.7 6.3 2.6 6.7
3.9 2.6 3.6 6.0 2.7 6.3
3.9 2.7 3.6 5.8 2.8 6.0
3.9 2.9 3.6 5.5 2.9 5.7
3.9 3.0 3.6 5.3 3.0 5.5
3.9 3.1 3.6 5.1 3.1 5.2
3.9 3.2 3.7 4.9 3.2 5.0
3.9 3.4 3.7 4.7 3.4 4.8
3.9 3.5 3.8 4.5 3.5 4.5
3.9 3.6 3.8 4.3 3.7 4.3
3.9 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.8 4.1
4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Crude B2 Crude B3 Crude B4 Crude B5 Crude B6 Crude B7
4
4 4 4 4 4 = High probability that crudes will NOT be compatible
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
= Warning: Possible problems with crude compatibility = Crudes should be compatible
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Petro-SIM™1 for Efficient Molecular Management
Optimizing Refinery Streams
• Molecule management – – – –
1Petro-SIM
Raw material flexibility Improved refinery operations Optimized refinery streams Capitalize on integration
™ is a trademark of KBC Advanced Technologies plc, and it is registered in various territories
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Refinery Considerations • Crude receipts and tanking High pour point, viscosity; meters, control valves, horsepower
• Desalting and preheating
Difficult oil/water separation Treatment chemicals affect desalter performance High temperatures less effective Asphaltene precipitation
• Heat exchanger design • Crude Tower Volatile phosphates Naphthenic acids May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Refinery Considerations (Cont’d) • Vacuum Tower Operation affected by sulphur and high boiling ranges
• FCCU More aromatic feeds Need higher severity Pre-feed hydrotreating may be required
• Fixed Bed Hydrotreating More hetaro-atoms in cracked lighter products, more load
• Hydrogen System Directionally higher demand in traditional fuel refinery
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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Conclusions • Crude selection and compatibility are critical to profitable refining operations • Conventional and unconventional crude qualities are changing • Mixtures of crudes can increase profitability can foul equipment or underperform financially • Tools are available that predict crude compatibility and performance of unconventional crudes and crude mixtures in a specific refinery
May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
26
Thank you and Questions May 2012
PROPRIETARY INFORMATION
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