7. Conclusions and Recommendations As stated at the beginning of this paper, the purpose of this research project has been to analyse the capacity of Singapore’s Industry Transformation Programme (ITP) to meet the expectations. A number of activities have been carried out to underpin the analysis, including a review of relevant research literature, analysis of publicly available documents about Singapore’s ITP and industrial policy in general as well as a number of targeted interviews to understand better specific aspects of different elements of ITP and industrial as well as skills policy in Singapore more generally. An important note to point out that analysis of expectations of a specific programme must enable clearly identifying what those expectations are. In the case of ITP, two elements can underpin the understanding of the expectations. Firstly, quantitatively, the overall goals as regards the rate of economic and productivity growth could be inferred from those set by strategic governing bodies in 2010 and later in 2017. More specifically, the economic growth targets for the overall economy are aimed to reach 3%-5% annually; with productivity growth being the key driver (aimed at around 2% annually). These economy-wide economic and productivity growth targets are then segmented into sector-specific targets. This include also targets for the Precision Engineering Industry, aiming i.e. at around 8% added-value growth and around 10% productivity growth annually (reaching around 178.000 SGD per employee, as set in the PE productivity roadmap in 2011), as well as creating 3000 new PMET jobs in the sector until 2020. Secondly, qualitatively, the expectations can be derived from the communicated purpose of the ITP – to improve the coordination capacity of public policy bodies, together with other stakeholders, in promoting economic restructuring. As regards the capacity to realise expectations for quantitative growth, one basis for the assessment can be past efforts, including through the outcomes of 2011 productivity roadmaps, that also included precision engineering industry. Quantitative analysis for the overall ITP is complicated by the fact that there is no clear quantitative statement as regards the expected targets to be reached by the ITP – the only targets that are available at that level is the targets of the overall economic and productivity growth of the country; however, ITP does not cover the whole economy – sectors included in ITP represent around 80% of Singapore’s GDP. It is also not clear, if the growth targets of all the sectors included in the ITP will cumulatively arrive at a joint growth figure corresponding/supporting the national economic growth targets. Still, historic growth rates, driven by capital-investment, could overall result in the expected rates of productivity growth at around 2%. On the other hand, quantitative analysis at the sector-specific level is somewhat easier as there exists concrete targets for the Precision engineering industry. From that point of view, while the level of ambition has been retained the same for the sector as set in 2011, the results of the sector between 2010 and 2015 were substantially below these targets. Accordingly, unless there is a major additional drive and investment in the sector beyond the one realised between 2010 and 2015 and/or substantially changed industry dynamics nationally and internationally, it is not likely that those quantitative targets will be reached. However, the most difficult part in the analysis of the capacity of a policy intervention/ programme to achieve expectations is the analysis of attribution, i.e. the impact that can be attributed exclusively to the specific intervention, while eliminating the effects of other interventions or actions and activities carrier out outside the realm of public policy or even outside the country altogether. Therefore, even if trend analysis of statistical indicators would indicate that the targets are likely to be achieved, it must be clear how and to what extent the specific policy intervention contributed to reaching those targets.
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