The effectiveness of declaring Code Red

Emergency information is provided in three basic tiers: (Advice, Watch and Act, and Emergency Warning). Additional messages may include a Recommendation to Evacuate, Community Information, and All Clear. IGEM’s 10 Year Review acknowledges that there has been significant improvement in the formulation of community information and warnings in Victoria and their dissemination during emergencies. This was also evident during the 2019–20 bushfires. Yet to be undertaken, however, is a thorough review of the overall effectiveness of message content and frequency, and the efficacy of the various channels used. The 10 Year Review also found that stakeholders thought the warning system needed to be simplified to aid community comprehension. Further work is needed to enable the sector to better understand how well the different levels of information and warning about bushfires is understood by the general public and how such information is interpreted, acted upon or simply ignored by the broader community.

The declaration of Code Red is the highest level of fire danger warning possible under the current system used in Victoria. The term ‘Code Red’ is specific to Victoria; in all other jurisdictions the term 'Catastrophic' is given to this rating. The declaration of a Code Red in Victoria is rare. There have only been two previous declarations (in 2010) and these predate a revision of the applicable grass fire danger rating. Fire Danger Ratings (FDRs) are used to inform the community of the potential for fires to spread and the likelihood of their suppression. These are currently based on dated modelling, and a national review of the FDR system is underway aimed at bringing greater scientific rigour and community understanding of the ratings and their meaning. All levels of the ratings below Code Red are issued by the Bureau of Meteorology based on inputs including such factors as temperature, humidity, wind and the dryness of the landscape. A Code Red declaration differs in that, while it takes these factors into consideration, it is a determination by the Emergency Management Commissioner (EMC) in consultation with other emergency management leaders. The trigger for the decision-making process is a Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) of 100+ or a Grass Fire Danger Index of 150+. In addition to the FFDIs, other factors considered are pre-existing fires, known arson activity, population movement, travel and holiday periods and major events attracting large numbers of people in high risk areas.

A Code Red declaration was made for parts of Victoria for 21 November 2019. Despite its relatively late declaration, the Code Red declaration was considered effective in alerting northern Victoria and the broader Victorian community to the extreme bushfire danger.