How will the War in Ukraine affect the Food Landscape of our Future?

22 IMPACT How will the war in Ukraine affect the food landscape of our future?

With Brexit and the effects of climate change, British food prices have been on a steady rise for years. Will the war between Russia and Ukraine cause more problems with the global food supply chain further impacting the UK’s already turbulent food climate? Hannah Lowe gives us a rundown on what to expect.

As the war between Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate, you may be asking yourself how the conflict may impact the food landscape of our future. Although food prices before the war had already hit a record high, being 20% more expensive than they were the year before due to rising transportation costs, supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices, it is predicted that food prices will continue to rocket globally.

With nearly 30% of global wheat exports coming from Ukraine and Russia, they are considered global ‘breadbaskets’. It has been forecast that regions with a strong reliance on wheat and fertiliser imports, such as North Africa, may suffer immensely. With commercial operations being suspended at Ukraine’s port facilities, most of the wheat harvested in 2021 is currently unable to be exported.

It has been reported that in poorer countries and households, the share of income spent on food can be above 40%. With even higher costs, people may be unable to continue buying wheat-based products.

North Africa also relies heavily on fertiliser imported from Ukraine and Russia. Without fertiliser, it becomes very difficult to produce crops – impacting not only food supplies to their domestic population but their trade links abroad.

Like Covid-19, the war in Ukraine has exposed a lack of resilience within the infrastructure of the global food supply chain. It raises concerns over many countries’ overreliance on a small number of breadbaskets. In his interview with Global Landscapes Forum, Dr Lawrence Haddad iterated the importance of diversifying production and trade links: “Geopolitically, we are

much too dependent on five or six bread-baskets of the world – there needs to be 20. It may not be the most efficient way of doing it, but it will be the most resilient.” Countries should begin to spread their reliance more proportionately on trade agreements with a higher number of countries. This means that when humanitarian crises like these occur, global food supply chains can more effectively respond and adapt in order to minimise the wider implications. Haddad also stressed the importance of trade continuing to occur both internally and externally in other countries, as a halt on trade means “everyone will suffer”.

Although UK food producers do not import many items from Russia or Ukraine, with more than 90% of the wheat we consume being produced domestically, there may still be an increase in associated costs, such as packaging, transport and fertiliser. A predicted 15% inflation of food prices, alongside an increase in fuel and energy prices, will make it increasingly difficult for lowerincome families to live in the UK.

To help minimise the impact of the war on the UK’s food chain, it is important to refrain from panic buying. Instead, you should look to buy nonperishables in bulk (for example, pasta and rice), or buy frozen produce which is cheaper and more abundant.

The war is clearly going to impact our everyday lives, especially our food chains. It is important to be prepared, whilst also not descending into panic. And of course, if you are able, donate to food banks too.

By Hannah Lowe

Illustrations and Page Design by Ciara Lurshay