3. WHAT DO WE HAVE TO SPEND ON HEALTH SERVICES? RECENT TRENDS IN HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURE Since 2012, the public health budget in South Africa has become severely constrained as a result of the deepening austerity after the 2008 global recession 9. Prior to 2012, the National Treasury was able to shield the social sectors from the declining fiscal environment, but from 2012 onwards, health, education and other social service sectors also bore the brunt of South Africa’s ongoing fiscal austerity measures. Figure 1 shows the real expenditure per capita uninsured from 2010/11 to 2019/20 in South Africa 10. The dip in health spending in 2012/13 is evident, as is the erratic nature of the public health allocation over the 10-year period.
Figure 1: Annual public health expenditure per capita uninsured (Real)
Our analysis shows little predictability in the health budget year-on-year, which impacts the sector’s ability to plan appropriately. The analysis also shows that in the decade between 2010/11 and 2019/20, the overall per capita spend for the uninsured population has only grown by 15%. This growth is worrisome given that medical inflation constantly supersedes average general inflation (CPI) and we would anticipate at least a CPI-linked increase for each year, which would result in a growth rate well above the 15% shown. Once the above-CPI price increases have been taken into account, it has not left much additional growth to account for a growing disease burden and greater health needs. This has no doubt contributed to the dire conditions in the public health sector in terms of its dilapidated infrastructure, limited human resources for health and rising quality concerns – the Eastern Cape being an example of this decline 11. Figure 2 shows the average expenditure per capita uninsured by province. The erratic nature of budget availability is clear over the period, highlighting the difficulties that an uncertain budget creates for health sector planning. The impact of this on a long term plan to rollout NHI is immediately evident; there is no way to be certain that next year’s budget will be able to include new, major health reform costs.
5 | TRADE-OFFS ON THE ROAD TO UHC: A QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS FOR SOUTH AFRICA
