APPENDIX C:
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Model assumptions by scenario Table 24: 24: M odel aassumptions ssumptions by by scescenario nario Table Model
Variable name
Reorienting Reorienting Towards Towards Value
NHI in the Bill
Gradually Same as NHI shifts from Rejigged. (2nd) current proportion to reach 100% by 2031, when private pooling is closed. (2nd)
Same as NHI rejigged (2nd)
Gradually shifts from current proportion to reach 100% by 2027, when private pooling is closed. (2nd)
Applied as a Declining percentage steadily from loading above 2025 on. (2nd) total private risk *rankings when pool private pooling closed expenditure. in each scenario
Slowly falling from 2022 until private risk pools close. (3rd)
Same as NHI Rejigged. (3rd)
Slowly falling from 2022 on. Starts falling quicker than NHI rejigged from 2027 until private risk pools close. (1st)
Steadily increasing from 2023, until private risk pools close. (5th)
OOP as % of public expenditure (OOP for uncovered lives)
Applied as a percentage loading above total public expenditure.
Steadily increasing from 2023, and peaking in 2030. Then reducing from then, reaching a figure lower than current levels by 2034 and stabilising in 2036. (3rd)
Same as NHI Rejigged. (3rd)
Similar to NHI Rejigged until 2031, although reaching a lower peak in 2030. Decreasing at a greater rate than NHI Rejigged from then until 2040. (1st)
Increasing sharply from 2023 until 2027. Then continues upward until 2034 where it stabilises at its peak value. (5th)
Utilisation boost
Applied as a Constant. (1st) percentage above the public utilisation rate. Boosted utilisation is then allocated to the recent movers (recent movers are those joining public sector in last 3 years)
Same as Status Quo. (1st)
Same as Status Quo. (1st)
Same as Status Quo. (1st)
Same as Status Quo with an added boost between 2023-2024. (5th)
Variable name
How it affects Status Quo Howcalculation it Status Quo our affects our calculation
% of population in Determines population size public sector dependent on system public offering. Population in each sector multiplied by the cost per life figure.
Remains constant until 2030 and mildly increases in the next 10 years. (1st)
OOP as % of private expenditure
Declining slowly and steadily from 2025 on. (2nd)
NHI Rejigged
NHI Rejigged
Power to the Power to People the People
Value
NHI in the Bill
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