Figure 4: Average annual percentage population growth, 1985 – 2020

Figure 4: Average annual percentage population growth, 1985-2020 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2018

Population growth may play out in household structures (in an inequality context). Although fertility levels in South Africa (which contribute to decreasing average population growth rates) have been declining significantly, suggesting a strong fertility transition8 , average fertility may still be higher than women’s and households’ stated preferences.

Stats SA recently (2020) published nationwide research in which they asked women who had a baby in the five years preceding the survey (conducted in 2016) whether they wanted to get pregnant at the time. If they answered no, they were asked whether they wanted to rather have a baby later (indicating that the birth may have simply been unplanned or mistimed) or did not want more children (therefore indicating that the birth was unwanted). Unwanted births are therefore births – as recalled by the women surveyed – where no additional birth was planned or wanted at the time of conception. Over 20% of total births from the prior five years were classified as unwanted according to this research. The underlying research also shows that another 34% of the births were mistimed. As we discuss below, this may also have implications, especially for younger mothers. These unwanted births show a decline with increasing education; in 2016 unwanted births to mothers with tertiary education (11%) was four times less compared to mothers with no education (46.3%). 26% of the unwanted births were birthed into households in the poorest wealth quintile and 13% into households in the richest wealth quintile. The highest number of unwanted births were found in the Eastern Cape, followed by KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga.9

Various factors may contribute to these high levels of unwanted fertility, including low-quality contraceptive services in the public sector, and gender violence and inequality. Recent research indicates that the unmet need for contraception remains high – at 19% – for sexually active women, and at 15% for married/in-union women. This research also highlights the widespread dissatisfaction by both community members and healthcare providers with the level of family planning quality of care.10 We discuss gender-based violence later in this report under physical security and legal inequalities, where it is found that among adult women in South Africa, 21% have reported experiencing physical abuse in their lifetime.

While ideal population growth rates may be ambiguous and even controversial, the findings from stated preferences do provide insights into the possible links between population growth, poverty and inequality. The same report regarding unwanted births by