TOTAL GRID COLLAPSE HOW LIKELY IS IT?

It has happened in other parts of the world and if it were to happen in SA, the results would be just as catastrophic. But it probably won’t. Here’s why

BY LUNGILE MASHELE

INCREASINGLY, there has been talk of a nationwide blackout that will affect South Africans.

A perfunctory gaze at social media and certain media outlets will show individuals alarmingly prophesying month-long blackouts and Eskom generators blowing up.

The increasing load shedding and talks of stage 16 have not gone unnoticed by false doomsday prophets and individuals who have nary an understanding of how to balance frequency and voltage control of the largest electricity utility in Africa.

Eskom defines a national blackout as the complete, uncontrolled, deenergisation of the power system. It stipulates that generators may “island to house load” and that all customers will lose supply.

Blackouts have happened in numerous countries, such as Canada, Kenya, UK and Argentina, and multiple states in the US in recent years.

Most of the blackouts were a result of natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes and fires, while others were due to transmission grid failure.

The probability of a blackout in South Africa is almost zero; however, if it were to happen, the impact would be catastrophic. It would impact every sphere of society, such as water, health care, education, financial services, telecommunications and food, and even non-electrical energy supply, such as petrol and diesel.

To give people some perspective: you would not be able to use your phone, get water from a tap, go to work, buy fresh food or withdraw money.

Given that the likelihood is extremely low, let us rather use this opportunity to explain why the possibility of a blackout is unlikely:

1. Eskom transmission maintenance is above 95% completed (Eskom AFS FY2022).

2. The Eskom system operator is one of the most experienced system operators in the world, with experience in managing a supply and demand mismatch for 15 years (several SA engineers are sharing their experience with utilities in developed countries).

3. The system operator has several tools at its disposal, such as ancillary services and a reserve margin to counter dips in frequency.

4. Eskom has signed agreements with energy intensive users to curtail their load.

5. The NRS 048-9 document gives Eskom the regulatory approval to loadshed up to stage 8, and this will soon be updated to stage 16.

EVEN if the worst were to happen and we went into a national blackout, generators are equipped with the ability to protect themselves by disconnecting from the grid and going into island mode.

The generators would continue generating but not transmit into the grid. Restarting the system in this case would take up to 48 hours.

In the serious case of a blackout where even islanding is not possible, then Eskom would make use of its blackstart facilities to restart the national grid.