WORLD THIS WEEK

COP26: Focus on Deforestation, Methane, and Coal

What happened?

On 31 October, COP 26- the UN Climate Change Conference began in Glasgow, United Kingdom. It is being hosted by the UK in partnership with Italy and will culminate on 12 November. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked: "We face a stark choice: either we stop it- or it stops us. It is time to say enough."

On 2 November, the Global Methane Pledge was signed by 103 countries; it aims to reduce human-induced methane emissions by at least 30 percent. On the same day, around 110 countries committed to the UKled Declaration on Forests and Land Use, which aims to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030.

On 3 November, the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero or GFANZ (created jointly by the UN and COP26 presidency in April 2021), pledged to commit to the Paris Agreement's provisions. The alliance of more than 450 banks, insurance companies, and asset managers has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

On 4 November, the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement was announced. It calls for phasing out coal power by 2030 in the case of major economies and by 2040 for poorer countries. Over 45 countries have signed the Statement to date. Twenty countries, including Canada and the US, committed to halting financing of fossil fuel projects abroad.

On 4 November, the UNEP released the sixth edition of the "UNEP Adaptation Gap Report: The Gathering Storm." It talks about the glaring gaps between the Global South and North in terms of the cost of climate adaptation. Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UNEP commented: “Those in poorer countries are going to suffer the most, so ensuring that there is a degree of equity and a degree of global solidarity for adaptation finance is critical."

What does it mean?

First, the silence of major economies on key sectors. The 45 countries that signed the statement on phasing out coal, did not include the major coal consumers and producers- Australia, India, China, and the US. China, Japan, and India were also not among the 20 countries committed to halting funding for fossil fuel projects abroad. Asian countries are major funders of such projects.

Second, high targets. Setting high targets can demotivate an actor and also provoke it to stay away from such agreements in its interest. The pledge on deforestation is unrealistic, given the already existing inequalities in terms of development and climate finance. While development is not necessarily antithetical to environment protection, it may not be fair to demand a complete halt of deforestation and reversal, by the developing world. Indonesia's take on the Declaration represents this perspective.

Third, finding a middle ground. The Paris Agreement pushed for maintaining 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming. The recent IPCC report stated that at the present rate, the world was on track to become warmer by 2.7 degrees Celsius. COP26 tries to find a balance between the two. There was a larger opinion in the conference that restricting global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius is still within reach. According to the International Energy Agency, the 1.8 degrees limit is achievable, given stringent and timely implementation of the COP26 commitments. Meeting this middle ground will go far in combating anthropogenic climate change.

Japan: LDP secures a comfortable win in the 2021 elections

What happened?

On 31 October, Japan conducted its 49th general election. The new Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's coalition secured a safe and comfortable majority in the Parliament. Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) claimed 261 seats in the 465-member lower house. The LDP's junior coalition partner Komeito won 32 seats, together with sharing 291 seats in the lower house. The center-left

Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the biggest opposition group saw its fall by 13 seats to 96.

On 1 November, Fumio Kishida said, "It was a very tough election, but the people's will — that they want us to create this country's future under the stable LDP- Komeito government and the Kishida administration — was shown." He further added "We received a precious 261 seats for the LDP. As a responsible party, we will meet the public mandate."

What does it mean?

First, Kishida's first public test. This is the first test for Kishida who took over as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party in October and became the party leader and prime minister. The new government will face the task of steering the world's thirdlargest economy battered by the coronavirus, tackling a very fastaging and slumping population and major security challenges from China and North Korea.

Second, the question of stability or the return to a revolving door. A weakened LDP majority in the elections could possibly mean further losses in the upcoming upper house elections. While the LDP has been in power almost continuously, only five politicians in the course of eight decades have hung on to the prime minister's post for more than five years or longer. A poor showing of the LDP power in the electorate could encourage and embolden Fumio Kishida's rivals within the party. Thus, threatening Japan to once again return to an era of short-lived government administrations.

ALSO IN NEWS

China threatens to hold Pro-Taiwan independence individuals criminally liable

For the first time, Beijing has spelled out the punishment for people who push for Taiwan's independence. These punishments include not entering the mainland and its special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau. On 6 November, China's Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson, Zhu Fenglian said, Beijing will hold individuals deemed pro-Taiwan independence "criminally liable" for life. On the same day, Taiwan's premier, speaker, and foreign minister were blacklisted. Foreign Minister Joseph Wu tweeted:

"I've received countless notes of congratulations after being blacklisted and sanctioned, for life, by the #CCP."

China: Hong Kong trial begins for eight pro-democracy activists; the economy grows by 5.4 percent

On 1 November, trial began for Apple Daily founder Jimmy Lai and seven others who were charged over an unauthorized Tiananmen vigil. The eight prodemocracy activists faced charges of "organizing, participating, and inciting others" to participate in a candlelight vigil to commemorate the 1989 crackdown. On the same day, the HKSAR government announced, Hong Kong's economy grew by 5.4 percent in the third quarter, following 7.6 percent growth in the second quarter. Xinhua reported: HKSAR spokesperson said, "Hong Kong's economic recovery became more entrenched in the third quarter alongside the continued revival of global economic activity and stable local epidemic situation."

Japan: Germany expands military ties with Tokyo

On 6 November, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said Tokyo would have a military setup with Germany in the Indo-Pacific region and welcomed the first German warship's visit in about 20 years. Frigate Briyam visited Tokyo after two days of joint exercise in the Pacific Ocean with the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense force destroyer, Samidare. The Mainichi reported: Kishi said, "The ship's visit is an important turning point in pursuing a free and open Indo- Pacific and securing one of the world's most important shipping lanes." He further added, "It shows Germany's strong commitment to actively contribute to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific."

Australia: Canberra ratifies RCEP trade deal

On 3 November, Australia joined New Zealand to ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal. The deal will come into effect in Jan 2022. RCEP will set common rules around the trade in goods and services, intellectual property, e-commerce, and competition. The Strait Times reported: Australian foreign minister Marise Payne said, "the deal would strengthen the country's trade ties with Asean, signaling its commitment to an Asean-led regional economic architecture."

India: Pentagon reports of a China village in Arunachal Pradesh

On 6 November, Pentagon's annual report to the US Congress highlighted China's construction of a large village on the disputed area of Arunachal Pradesh. The Economic Times reported these settlements are described as "dual purpose" by India officials.

Afghanistan: Pentagon probe reveals that there is no violation of law in Kabul drone attack

On 4 November, a pentagon review concluded that there was no negligence or misconduct in the August drone strike, in which 10 civilians were killed. The US Air Force Inspector General said: "their investigation found no violation of law, including the law of war." He further added, "there were execution errors that led to civilian casualties." The Chinese foreign ministry's spokesperson expressed their dissatisfaction. He said, "The international community is yet to see any investigation or accountability in the US."

Russia: Diplomat found dead next to the embassy in Berlin

On 5 November, the BBC reported that a Russian diplomat was found dead outside the embassy in Berlin last month. Although the cause of the death is still unclear, he seems to have fallen from a height as the body was found on the pavement by the police guarding the Berlin compound. The Russian embassy also called it a "tragic accident" but has not revealed any details regarding the individual nor the accident.

The US: Senate passes USD one trillion infrastructure plan

On 2 November, the US Senate passed the USD one trillion worth of infrastructure plan. The passing of the bill is a huge step for the Democrats and for the leadership of President Joe Biden. A total of 19 Republicans joined the 50 Democrats to produce a 69-30 vote for the bill. The bill now includes USD 550 billion in new funding, which will be utilized for transportation, telecommunication, and more. The Senate majority leader said: "Today, the Senate takes a decade's overdue step to revitalize America's infrastructure and give our workers, our businesses, our economy, the tools to succeed in the 21st century."

About the Authors

Keerthana Nambiar is a Visiting Research Scholar at NIAS, she is currently pursuing her postgraduation in International Relations from the University of Mysore. Sukanya Bali is a Doctoral candidate at OP Jindal University. Rashmi Ramesh is a PhD scholar in the School of Conflict and Peace Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Avishka Ashok is a Research Associate at NIAS.

The report has been specified by India news due to space considerations.