INDIA NEWS
Feb 16-28, 2022 - Vol 2, Issue 15
WORLD THIS WEEK
WORLD THIS WEEK Contributed by the National Institute for Advanced Studies, Bengaluru
Compiled by D. Suba Chandran, Ashwin Dhanabalan, Angkuran Dey and Meghna Manoj
Escalation and de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis
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What happened? On 03 February, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He was stated to have discussed the importance of strategic balance in Europe to maintain order and guarantee security and the need to "accelerate" the peace process in Eastern Ukraine. According to a Kremlin statement: "The substantive dialogue on the situation around Ukraine and issues related to the Russian initiative to develop longterm legally binding security guarantees for the Russian Federation was continued. The leaders exchanged views on the current state of affairs, including in the context of recent contacts with several international partners and France's Presidency at the EU Council. Vladimir Putin again emphasized the provocative statements and actions of the Kiev leadership, which run counter to the Minsk agreements." On the same day, the Pentagon's press secretary, in a press briefing, mentioned: "Russians are likely to want to fabricate a pretext for an invasion, which again, is right out of their playbook. One option is that the Russian government is planning to stage a fake attack by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces against Russian sovereign territory or against Russianspeaking people to justify their action. As part of this fake attack, we believe that Russia would produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations." On 2 February, the Pentagon Press secretary said in a briefing: "Our commitment to NATO Article 5 and collective defense remains ironclad. As part of this commitment and to be prepared for a range of contingencies, the United States will soon move additional forces to Romania, Poland and Germany." Earlier, on 01 February, in a press conference in Moscow, Putin accused the US of ignoring the Russian proposals put forward by Moscow. He was not satisfied
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with the US response to Russian demands on NATO's troops and infrastructure removal from Eastern Europe and barred Ukraine from entering NATO. Putin mentioned how: "It's already clear that Russia's principal concerns were ignored." There was also a call by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for governments to adhere to the 1999 agreement, the violation of which was the basis of the Ukraine crisis. On 31 January, at the UNSC council meeting, the US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said: "The threats of aggression on the border of Ukraine ... is provocative. Our recognition of the facts on the ground is not provocative." The UNSC experienced a spillover of the tensions at the Ukrainian border as the countries accused each other of being provocative. She further stated how: "The provocation is from Russia, not from us or other members of this council." Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia responded: "Our Western colleagues are talking about the need for de-escalation. However, first and foremost, they themselves are whipping up tensions and rhetoric and are provoking escalation." Nebenzia also disputed the number of troops stationed at the border. What does it mean? With the revival of the Normandy format talks, one could also revisit the Minsk Protocol, a set of agreements signed in 2014 and 2015. The recent days witnessed both escalation and de-escalation; the revival of the Normandy format is essential in this context.
ALSO IN NEWS China: 2022 Winter Olympics kicks off On 4 February, the lighting of the seven Olympic rings brought an end to the grand opening ceremony as the XXIV Winter Olympics in Beijing was declared open. The opening ceremony saw athletes from 91 National Olympic Committees (NOC's) participating together. On this occasion, International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach stated: "You have arrived here after overcoming so many challenges, living through great uncertainty. But now your moment has come: the moment you have been longing for – the moment we all have been longing for." China: President Xi meets President Putin On 4 February, on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics' inauguration, the two Presidents of China and Russia met.
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mid-February on the charges of influencing the country's election commission in the 2020 elections. According to a Kremlin release, a "joint Russia-China statement and a package of documents have been adopted within the framework of the visit. They include an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in anti-monopoly legislation and competitive policy and several other interdepartmental documents, such as the agreement on cooperation in ensuring compatibility and interoperability of GLONASS and BeiDou navigation satellite systems in terms of the system time scales; a joint statement on the completion of a roadmap for high-quality development of Russian-Chinese trade in goods and services; and a plan of consultations between the foreign ministries of Russia and China in 2022. In addition to that, the sides have signed a memorandum of understanding between the Russian Economic Development Ministry and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce to promote investment cooperation in sustainable (green) development, and a joint statement between the relevant ministries on holding the Russian and Chinese years of cooperation in physical education and sports in 2022–2023." North Korea: Pyongyang's longrange missile launch and the US condemnation On 30 January, North Korea fired a long-range missile test that covered the longest distance since 2017. The missile covered a distance of 800 kilometres, reaching an altitude of 2,000 kilometres before landing in the sea. The test marks North Korea's seventh-round weapons launch since the new year. The US military's Indo-Pacific command said: "The United States condemns these actions and calls on [North Korea] to refrain from further destabilizing acts." Myanmar: 11th corruption charge against Suu Kyi On 4 February, the military regime placed the 11th corruption charge against Aung San Suu Kyi for allegedly receiving a USD 550,000 donation as charity. The donation was received by the charity foundation named after her mother. Each corruption charge carries a possible 15-year jail term, and so far, Suu Kyi is facing more than 150 years in prison. Her next round of indictments will commence in
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ASEAN: Myanmar's top diplomat barred from attending the forthcoming foreign ministers' meeting On 3 February, ASEAN announced the barring of Myanmar's top diplomat Wunna Maung Lwin from attending an upcoming Foreign Ministers meeting. Cambodia's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Chum Sounry said: "Since there has been little progress in carrying out ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus, the ASEAN member states did not reach a consensus to invite Myanmar SAC's foreign minister to participate in the upcoming foreign ministers' retreat." He additionally said that the group had asked Myanmar to send a non-political representative. Afghanistan: Claims of progress in acquiring international recognition On 4 February, Afghanistan's Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi mentioned the progress the Islamic Emirate had made in gaining worldwide recognition. He stated: "Our understanding and talks that we have had with everyone is a good achievement and that is a progress, we have come closer to that goal." The statement was made after the Afghan delegation held a series of meetings with delegations from the US, the European nations, and the EU. Muttaqi went ahead and invited countries to set up their embassies in Kabul and called for normalizing relations. Nepal: MoU with India to construct a bridge on the Mahakali river On 1 February, India and Nepal signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for constructing a motorable road on the Mahakali river. A statement released by the Indian embassy in Kathmandu stated: "This is in line with the priority shared by both the governments to expand cross-border connectivity for streamlining commercial, cultural and people-to-people exchanges." Sri Lanka: India's EXIM bank to extend USD 500 million On 3 February, India's ExportImport Bank (EXIM) signed an agreement with the Sri Lankan government to extend the USD 500 million line of credit to the cash-strapped country. Sri Lanka faces significant fuel shortages and is reeling under an economic
crisis. An official statement released by the Ministry of External Affairs of India stated: "This critical support comes in the wake of a virtual meeting between the External Affairs Minister of India S. Jaishankar and Sri Lanka's Minister of Finance Basil Rajapaksa, held on 15 January." The UK: Sue Grey's report on PM Johnson's party gate scandals On 1 February, civil servant Sue Grey released her report on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's party gate scandals. She said she found "failures of leadership and judgement" on Johnson's part. However, the report did not live up to its expectations as it provided little details about the 16 parties held. Additionally, there was a jurisdictional issue as 12 parties were not held in government buildings and are yet to be investigated by London's Metropolitan Police as a subject of criminal investigation. Italy: President Mattarella gets re-elected On 30 January, Italian President Sergio Mattarella withdrew his retirement plans and got elected as President at the end of the eighth round of voting. Mattarella was ready to move out of the Presidential Quirinale Palace quarters to a new apartment in Rome. But, he recalled his decision to retire in the wake of a potential power vacuum in Italy. Mattarella said: "I had other plans, but if needed, I am at your disposal." The US: Warning to Chinese firms on helping Russia amidst potential sanctions On 3 February, the US issued a warning to Chinese firms regarding the consequences of evading export controls in the case of a Ukrainian invasion by Russia. The US, along with other Western countries, has said that an invasion of Ukraine would bring sanctions on Moscow. The US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price stated: "We have an array of tools that we can deploy if we see foreign companies, including those in China, doing their best to backfill US export control actions, to evade them, to get around them." About the authors Ashwin Dhanabalan is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Angkuran Dey, and Meghna Manoj are Postgraduate scholars at the Center for South Asian Studies at Pondicherry University.
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