INDIA NEWS
Oct 16-31, 2020 - Vol 1, Issue 8
Are we living in a post-Covid surreal world? Abhishek Chaturvedi ‘Covid-19 + governance chaos turbo charges digital revolution Monopolistic missions of powerful shangrens of Guangdong, influential billionaires of California, Moscow or Mumbai—who fund favourable political lobbies—are getting turbocharged. This quid pro quo is propelling a virtual megabubble. Oblivious of people’s desperation, it may implode soon under global societal fault-lines or by a furious band of ‘ethical’ hackers. Digital revolution was always in the offing, so was IR 4.0 (Fourth Industrial Revolution) riding on artificial intelligence (AI), robotics and algorithms, turning shop-floors dark and drone-mode, making smart cities smarter and life all virtual. The Covid-19 has been just the perfect governance and socio-economic chaos, creating space for a predatory virtual pillage, a freefor-all laissez faire. Business data during the pandemic reveals how fortunes of leading billionaires have been skyrocketing, even as that of 99% of humanity has tanked. In US alone, billionaires saw their net worth increase by half a trillion dollars. The vast fortunes of America’s 643 billionaires have soared by an average of 29% since the start of the pandemic. It’s been a mighty unabated killing spree. Jeff Bezos’ (Amazon) personal fortune has already soared by 65%, Elon Musk’s (Tesla) by 274% and Mark Zuckerberg’s (Facebook) by 84%. Similar billionaire bonanza stories are all
across—Canada, Europe, China or India. And let’s not forget, the gains made by them have come at a time when most governments are busy combating the goliath at home; judiciary and jurisprudence grossly hampered. Sadly, the soaring fortunes are at the expense of the working class, especially those in frontline jobs, delivery boys risking their lives in the pandemic. IR 4.0 brings back the ‘big business’ ‘Big business’ first set sail on steam (IR 1.0) in mid-19th century, in IR 2.0 it rode on automotive and large-scale oil production in early 20th. Later in 3.0, it boomed on electronics and IT; and it’s turbocharged now in IR 4.0 on digital. A sine qua non, ‘small’ isn’t beautiful in this format and must make way, fall in line or perish, even if that’s the majority! Irrespective of the IR, it’s controlled by oligopolistic biggies, the primary sellers—rest buyers and producers—fiercely lobbying against any government interference or regulation. Entertainment = smart The ‘Big Business’ digital platforms are the new onestop-shop for everything. Office, business, food, education, healthcare, device, entertainment, media or banking—they own it all. They are the new self-styled ‘censors’ too. Let’s take entertainment. AV’s being shifted in a big way— virtual, app-driven over-the-top
(OTT). No holds barred, it’s all one-way bank account-linked. The lockdown has turned them as the masters of new global entertainment. Creativity and content is redefined with some binge watching and hair-raising abstract genres. A big business already, higher the viewership and sign-ups—especially of those labeled under ‘18+’, ‘violence, sex, nudity, abusive language’—more the money for ‘new seasons’. But, that’s not exactly the problem and let’s not be judgmental about the ‘moral’ codes. The Big business has invested leaving the addicted craving for more. World on edge, conflict is imminent The UN has cautioned on the old faultiness, apparently splitting wide open yet again especially in the Middle East, Central and Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin American countries. Covid-19 has hastened up years of cold war build-up like scenario between the US and China into a tangible reality with both locking horns on every economic or geo-political issue. While none can afford a war, countries like China are mounting pressure in the Pacific Rim and around its hill-locked borders, especially with India. Consequently, the US, Japan, India and Australia’s defence quad has taken precedence over multi-country business interests vide Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) or BRICS. Falling incomes, savings and mounting debts for most countries, businesses and people are accelerating the downward
spiral and a zooming debt crisis. It’s a matter of time before Covid-19’s economic stress breaks open the globe with newer fault lines and conflicts. The social consequences of the concentration of economic power in the hands of those controlling ‘big businesses ’is one of grave concern. Past researches have often revealed predatory effects upon labour, consumers, and investors, prices and competition. Accusations range from a wide variety of crimes like abuse of the working class to the corruption of politicians and fomenting of wars. Resultant commotions have pushed majorities to the brink, ushered in long-lasting anarchies, scams and led populist regimes to power. And by the time social upheavals pressurize governments to recast laws and policies around tax, trade, environment and labour, a massive damage has already been done. Way forward It’s time to trash old vanilla flavoured B-School thinking or yes-Prime Minister laced bureaucrat manufacturing academies to more people and grassroots centric design thinking—Emphasize, Define, Ideate, Prototype and Test,
China’s military game-plan to dominate the Indo-Pacific Dr. Rajiv Nayan Missiles are in news again. The new developments in missile technology are apparently threatening to start a new arms race, and thereby heralding a new missile age in the world. Recently, a London-based think-tank in collaboration with a European government organised a webinar in which global experts and officials participated. This was the second such meeting on missiles which focused on the Asia-Pacific, while the first one discussed the European theatre. At both the meetings, the hypersonic missile or vehicle emerged as a major threat or challenge for regional powers and international regimes. Cruise missiles have also figured prominently in both the Asian and European meetings. In both instances, the role of Ballistic Missile Development for regional stability emerged as key discussion point. Besides, for many countries, even the unregulated Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) proliferation and development is gradually becoming a major area of concern. Fluid security situation in Asia For a variety of reasons, the
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current century projected as the Asian century is witnessing a fluid security situation in Asia, away from the European theatre which once used to be the epicentre of the cold war rivalry between Soviet Union and the United States. The new Asian security situation is being closely monitored globally, trigged by concerns emanating from the phenomenal rise of China as an assertive world power. Security analysts and the international community have legitimate reasons to be worried about the new missile developments and deployments, complicating an already precarious geopolitical situation in the region. Now here comes the question: is the ‘new missile age’ the real game changer in Asia or the Indo-Pacific, particularly? The answer is complex. It can be argued that it is not an alarming situation yet, but it certainly portends to be a game changer. Unlike in Europe, the lapsing arms control treaties, especially Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, has not triggered so much concern in Asia. But ramifications of the unravelling of the treaties are featuring prominently at various fora. During the cold war, Europe
feared becoming a theatre of war, including a nuclear war which led to disarmament protests and campaigns to rid the region of short and medium range nuclear weapons and prevent their potential use in a conflict situation. In Asia, there are theatres simmering with tension now and it is likely that serious concerns may emerge in the West over rising regional tensions in Asia triggered by the short and intermediate-range missiles development and deployments. It is noteworthy that there is no regional pressure yet to conclude any multilateral treaty in Asia. Having said that, the end of the Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) treaty has been welcomed in some quarters. The emergent thinking among regional states and strategists is that an aggressive China can only be countered when the United States lifts restrictions on development and deployment of ballistic missiles in the Asian theatres. In addition, East Asia, South East Asia and Australia also need the American presence in shaping the security environment in the Indo-Pacific. Simultaneously, there is a growing realization that any new missile treaty will be meaningless
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without including the militarily rapidly modernising China, and a proposed trilateral treaty consisting of Russia, the US and China is strongly backed by the international strategic community as the way forward. Although some are talking about the acquisition of advanced technology by smaller countries in Asia-Pacific to counterbalance China, there is a growing consensus that China is too far ahead in developing new supersonic and cruise missiles, UAV technology and many such systems. It is also aggressively marketing its high-technology intensive products in the global market participating in various defence expos. China averse to any missile treaty Of course, China remains averse to joining any such treaty for fear of having its missile programmes curbed and falling short of matching the Western
SPECIAL FEATURE wherein IR4.0 could be used as a catalyst to zoom people’s incomes and quality of life. The key is to understand that the socioeconomic growth of the bottom of the pyramid is critical to revive both economy and business. The success of an organization— government or business—and the well-being of local communities is mutually determined. The most fascinating and relevant strategies evolve from accepting this twoway link. Well, Covid-19 disruption is a huge opportunity to indulge in some serious strategic thinking and to realign goalposts. Time to assess new baselines at grassroots level, engage in purpose driven research and multi-stakeholder dialogues, community needs assessments and to revive the circular economy driven on IR4.0. It is time also to re-instill faith and handhold sustainable start-ups, social enterprises, community initiatives. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and socio-economic, cultural and environmental realities need a good matchmaking, without negotiating on climate action. Who wants people banging on factory gates, disrupt work, torch properties or indulge in acts of violence? Can anyone afford a digital catastrophe? Why force it? It is time to seek one’s Social License to Operate (SLO), a critical, though unwritten law, by thinking and working for the wider community. Abhishek Chaturvedi is Founder of Sustainability Co-creators (SUSCO) and a sustainable development advisor. He can be contacted at abhishek@ suscoadvisory.com military prowess, particularly the US. Available writings on the subject demonstrate that these weapons technologies are considered critical for the Chinese anti-access/area denial capabilities. Although the world is still struggling to define emerging and enabling items, gradually some products are flooding the list of emerging and enabling technologies. China has invested a great deal into technologies such as Artificial Intelligence and space based navigation and integrating them with its missile technology. It is anticipated that new technologies will make Chinese missiles not only fast and accurate but also lethal and containerised. China plans to move beyond the Cold War idea of addressing the window of vulnerability and signalling to strengthen second strike capabilities for strategic stability. It shall have its own course to dominate at least in Asia and possibly, the world as a new hegemon. Thus, the Chinese missile developments will create a new insecurity environment in the Indo-Pacific. Dr Rajiv Nayan is a Senior Research Officer Associate, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
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