WORLD THIS WEEK

Courtesy-Middle East Eye

What happened?

On 10 March, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations seven years after the ties were severed. The delegations reached an agreement in talks hosted by China during 6-10 March. Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Council of Iran met Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban, Saudi Arabia’s national security advisor, in the presence of Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister. The Joint Trilateral Statement thanked Iraq and Oman for hosting multiple rounds of dialogues in 2021 and 2022. The foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia will meet to implement the agreement. Regarding the practical aspects, the Statement mentioned that reopening embassies and missions within the next two months will be a priority. It also reaffirmed the commitment to non-interference in internal affairs, upholding sovereignty, and re-implement the 2001 Security Cooperation Agreement between the two countries.

The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres welcomed the agreement and said that this was an important step towards achieving regional stability. On 15 March, the UNSC held a meeting on the situation in Yemen, where the agreement was received positively. The UN Special Envoy for Yemen called on the parties to the conflict to carry forward the advantages of the agreement to ensure peace in Yemen. The rapprochement was welcomed by majority of regional states/actors/territories including Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority, Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis of Yemen.

Israeli politicians denounced the development and the opposition blamed PM Netanyahu for failing to isolate Iran. Former PM Yair Lapid called the agreement “dangerous foreign policy failure of the Israeli government… a collapse of the regional defence wall” that was being built against Iran. The White House spokesperson remarked that Saudi Arabia informed it about the talks, but Washington was not directly involved in the process.

What does it mean?

First, the regional impact. Lebanon’s PM Najib Mikati said that the agreement “is an opportunity to breathe in the region, and look to the future.”

Indeed, most leaders hope that this is a positive beginning and an end to the rivalry that manifested through proxy conflicts. Though there is a relative calm except in a few pockets such as Ta’iz and Ma’rib, the eight-year Yemen conflict is yet to find an end. A revival of ties between Iran and Saudi is a hope for concrete peace, and probably will be one of the priorities on the agenda. The UN-brokered truce has expired in Yemen, yet Saudi is now directly talking to the Houthi leadership. However, the conflict is a complex one, with multiple actors and interests involved. The reconciliation can provide a breakthrough, but the conflict cannot end until domestic actors consider peace as an option in Yemen.

In Syria, Saudi and Iran support opposing sides. Indicating a change, the Arab states are warming up to President Bashar al-Assad in recent times. Direct talks, and visits have increased since the earthquake struck Turkey and Syria in February this year. The reconciliation can provide impetus to reintegrating Syria into the regional fold after a long period of isolation. In Iraq, Iran’s strong political hold has often dissuaded Saudi Arabia’s investments. It is in Iraq’s interest to see Tehran and Riyadh talking. The impact of the agreement is yet to be seen in Lebanon’s case. Saudi Arabia’s political landscape might improve, but Iran may not be ready to give up its political gains made through Hezbollah. Second, Israel’s tricky position. Israel works towards containing and isolating Iran and has lobbied strongly for it in the case of JCPOA. It has also regularly targeted Iranian installations, armament supplies and affiliated groups in Lebanon and Syria by conducting air strikes. However, Saudi Arabia talking to Iran has started a political blame game in Tel Aviv, projected as a failure of Netanyahu’s government. In his previous tenure, Netanyahu showcased Abraham Accords as his government’s most important success, and aimed for normalization with Saudi. But with Iran and Saudi warming up, it may not be an easy path to tread.

Third, waves of ground-breaking diplomacy. The Abraham Accords aimed at integrating Israel in the region. Iran and Saudi resuming talks, looks for bilateral and regional peace. The two comprehensive diplomatic initiatives in Middle East in recent years, are the defining moments in the foreign policies of many states involved. With both initiatives working simultaneously, it is clear that some regional actors are willing to engage with Israel and also not favour an isolated Iran.

AUKUS Submarine Deal

What happened?

On 13 March, 18 months after the pact of AUKUS was signed in September 2021, the plan to build a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines was revealed by the US, UK, and Australia. President Biden hosted the Prime Ministers of UK and Australia at San Diego naval base on the same day. Following this, a defence official revealed to the European media that Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine program with the US and UK might cost up to AUD 368 billion (USD 245 billion) over the next three decades, making it the largest single-defence project in Australian history.

This investment is being seen as a significant move to confront China’s naval buildup in the IndoPacific, by supplying Australia with nuclear-powered attack submarines. On 18 March, as part of the same pact, the Pentagon approved the sale of up to 220 of the Tomahawk missiles at a cost of $1.3 billion in a deal that will also include technical support.

In response to this, the Russian Foreign Minister stated that the AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation is the advancement of NATO military infrastructure into Asia, while making a serious bet on many years of confrontation in the region.

On 17 March, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin at a press conference said the US, the UK and Australia are putting up an Anglo-Saxon clique and creating the socalled AUKUS trilateral security partnership to advance nuclear submarine cooperation and other cutting-edge military technology cooperation and stated, "this is typical Cold War mentality and a move that opens a Pandora's box, which will seriously impact regional and global peace and security,”

What does it mean?

The pact is extremely costly but is certainly escalatory with the risk of overstretching capabilities and diverting resources. However, the nuclear submarine deal and the tomahawks deal are significant indicators of an Indo Pacific tilt. First, the emergence of bloc politics in the Indo Pacific. AUKUS is among the few other initiatives of the US in the Indo Pacific region with an underlying focus on deterring China’s growth. The three countries are also active members of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing group. Together with the Quad, the changes in Japan’s security strategy and the AUKUS deal, there seem to be two strong blocs emerging in the Indo Pacific. Second, time for new IAEA standards. A loophole in the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty that allows nuclear fuel used for non-explosive military uses like naval propulsion to be exempted from IAEA inspections, has enabled the AUKUS pact. IAEA has announced that it would check fuel usage in sealed power units to ensure it does not conflict with its non-proliferation obligations. With seven countries already possessing these submarine capabilities, a case-by-case verification would not be an effective method in the long-run.

India: Pakistan engages “hostile and fabricated propaganda" says MEA report

On 13 March, MEA Annual Report 2022 stated that Pakistan engages in “hostile and fabricated propaganda" to vilify India to divert attention from its domestic and economic crises. The report also stated that there is no let-up in Pakistan sponsored terrorism. However, the report mentioned that India desires normal relations with Pakistan and all the issues should be peacefully resolved bilaterally. The report also mentioned China and India’s engagement are complex and Chinese transgression at LAC has seriously disturbed the peace and tranquillity of border areas.

Russia: ICC issues an arrest warrant against Putin

On 18 March, The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, alleging he is responsible for war crimes. The report has focused on the unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia, saying it had reasonable grounds to believe Mr Putin committed the criminal acts directly, and accused him of failing to use his presidential powers to stop children being deported. Legally, the ICC has no powers to arrest suspects, and can only exercise jurisdiction within its member countries - and Russia is not one of them. However, this would affect Putin from being unable to travel internationally.

France: Senate passes the pension reform bill amidst protests

On 11 March, before the senate meeting to vote on the pension reform bill, a set of protests was staged. Those who opposed the increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64 gathered across France, majorly in Paris.

According to France’s Interior Ministry close to 368,000 had took part while the CGT labour union reported one million. The nature of protests was observed to be massive due to France’s President Emmanuel Macron rejection to meet the union leaders.

On 11 March, using a quicker voting process to vote on entire bill than going by article and amendments, the upper chamber of the parliament voted in favour approving the pension reform. Upon the clearance, the final draft will be submitted for final vote of upper house and national assembly. Macron’s lacking majority, the challenge would be relied on Les Republicans to support in the vote.

About the Authors

Rashmi Ramesh, Harini Madhusudan, Ankit Singh and Akriti Sharma are PhD scholars in the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Avishka Ashok, Anu Maria Joseph, Apoorva Sudhakar, Padmashree Anandhan and Femy Francis are Research Associates at NIAS. The report has been modified due to space considerations.